The Future of Bombardier

[43096]

I would be inclined to agree. The Class 172s are also probably up to Siemens standard, and (apart from the software issues) the Aventras seem similarly well bolted together.

22x are of decent build quality, so one could argue that the build quality issue with *Stars actually originated from Adtranz and not the residual Bombardier operation.

I'm not sure that the 172s are that great. The internal finish seems pretty poor to me, and they had the issues with disintegrating door buttons (as did the 379s) which is a sign of poor quality.

I think the issues were with ADtranz/Bombardier UK, hence why the 22x are exempted from that as they were legacy Bombardier built in Brugge. There were some pretty big management changes in the UK after the Thameslink loss and the bleating that followed - I think Bombardier Transportation HQ in Berlin had had enough of the poor performance.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think the issues were with ADtranz/Bombardier UK, hence why the 22x are exempted from that as they were legacy Bombardier built in Brugge.

True, I think they share a fair bit of componentry with the Belgian LHCS and "rubber ring" EMUs of similar vintage.

 

[43096]

True, I think they share a fair bit of componentry with the Belgian LHCS and "rubber ring" EMUs of similar vintage.

You know, I'd never considered that they might share parts with the I11 stock and AM96 EMUs - that's a good point.

 

[DarloRich]

There's a a danger that asking this question will drive this thread seriously OT, but interested in learning the logic behind that suggestion

We could leave the EU in such a way that imported products are not attractive price wise meaning more work for the UK market.

Because bombardier build trains that are utter crap, and Stadler builds trains that are of a higher standard.

I am not sure that is correct without adding the words in my opinion and/or adding some kind of evidence!

 

[Bletchleyite]

You know, I'd never considered that they might share parts with the I11 stock and AM96 EMUs - that's a good point.

If you look for it there is some obvious family resemblance, e.g. the shape of the internal doors.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

We could leave the EU in such a way that imported products are not attractive price wise meaning more work for the UK market.

You can't buy a mainline passenger aircraft today without most of it being manufactured abroad (by Airbus, Boeing and a few others).
We do wings and engines for other people to integrate into a deliverable aircraft, and I don't think we are going to reinvent the home-built BAC 1-11 or VC10.
Trains have gone in the same direction in the last couple of decades.
There is a list of vital components for trains that are imported, even for Bombardier products from Derby.
Things like traction systems, bogies and TMS software (TMS being absolutely key to the systems integration of the whole train).
Like the aircraft situation, I don't see Bombardier reinventing these products to avoid importing components from other parts of the group who now have the IPR.

 

[hwl]

I'm not sure that the 172s are that great. The internal finish seems pretty poor to me, and they had the issues with disintegrating door buttons (as did the 379s) which is a sign of poor quality.

Blame Unipart for the door buttons not being up to spec...

 

[DarloRich]

You can't buy a mainline passenger aircraft today without most of it being manufactured abroad (by Airbus, Boeing and a few others).
We do wings and engines for other people to integrate into a deliverable aircraft, and I don't think we are going to reinvent the home-built BAC 1-11 or VC10.
Trains have gone in the same direction in the last couple of decades.
There is a list of vital components for trains that are imported, even for Bombardier products from Derby.
Things like traction systems, bogies and TMS software (TMS being absolutely key to the systems integration of the whole train).
Like the aircraft situation, I don't see Bombardier reinventing these products to avoid importing components from other parts of the group who now have the IPR.

but we wont need any of those forin fings after brexit!

The point being the cost of importing those items ( let alone a complete train) MIGHT become prohibitive meaning more components have to be sourced at home. Anyway that is off topic for this thread.

 

[samuelmorris]

Going nowhere yet, there are a lot of orders for them still to fulfill. Once the 730 production run comes to an end, if there are aren't numerous follow-on orders they could have issues. With the first NTfL contract going to Siemens, unless they get the new DLR contract they won't be getting much else from TfL for the rest of the 2020s.

As for Brexit, they're just as susceptible as everybody else. A UK plant assembling European components, same as Siemens in Goole. Getting an entire train through from Stadler might actually be easier post-Brexit than UK built units as then you only have the import issue to deal with for one very large component rather than thousands of smaller ones.

For perceived build quality issues, the quality of Bombardier stuff isn't great but having seen 800s and heard opinions on CAF's handiwork, I don't think they have much to worry about. Stadler and Siemens units are showing them up but not so much that it's likely to cost them business. The software disaster with the 710s will hit them hard primarily due to the knock-on delays it'll cause the 720s and 701s but they're immunised from delay to the 345s as it's crossrail ltd in the doghouse there, not Bombardier.

Similar issues have been experienced with the Electrostars and the Junipers. It didn't affect orders for the former but it certainly seemed to hurt the latter. Time will tell, I suppose.

 

[Domh245]

Once the 730 production run comes to an end, if there are aren't numerous follow-on orders they could have issues. With the first NTfL contract going to Siemens, unless they get the new DLR contract they won't be getting much else from TfL for the rest of the 2020s.

That predicament is by no means limited to Bombardier. CAF's Welsh plant will be running out of trains to build, as will Newton Aycliffe, only Goole looks like it's got plenty of work lined up with the new deep tube stock, and then you've also got Talgo looking to open a factory for the HS2 order - that's a whole load of factories with nothing much to build, but that's down to the large amount of new stock that's been ordered recently, in an ideal world that would have been spread out over a few more years than it has

 

[Bletchleyite]

That predicament is by no means limited to Bombardier. CAF's Welsh plant will be running out of trains to build, as will Newton Aycliffe, only Goole looks like it's got plenty of work lined up with the new deep tube stock, and then you've also got Talgo looking to open a factory for the HS2 order - that's a whole load of factories with nothing much to build, but that's down to the large amount of new stock that's been ordered recently, in an ideal world that would have been spread out over a few more years than it has

It might well be that a further new build for Northern and EMT is just about the only way to keep one or both of them open. Another fleet replacement upcoming, perhaps?

 

[samuelmorris]

There's lots more work to be done - 150s, 153/155s, 156s all have to go and soon. The 465 and 466s are likely to be replaced with new EMUs in the new Southeastern franchise, and the 165/166s aren't going to last forever, they could potentially be replaced by the end of the next decade - technically speaking they too are already end of life, but in the context of sprinters they seem nowhere near it. The DMUs on southwestern will probably be replace by the end of the 2020s as well, as could be some of the other 158s around. Then there's the EMT HSTs to replace, as well as long-term considerations for what replaces the 'stopgap' converted HSTs other operators are using. Plenty of work around, the question is who will be getting it?

 

[TRAX]

+ the DLR trains probably won't be built in Derby if BBD gets the package for the next trains.

 

[Chester1]

You can't buy a mainline passenger aircraft today without most of it being manufactured abroad (by Airbus, Boeing and a few others).
We do wings and engines for other people to integrate into a deliverable aircraft, and I don't think we are going to reinvent the home-built BAC 1-11 or VC10.
Trains have gone in the same direction in the last couple of decades.
There is a list of vital components for trains that are imported, even for Bombardier products from Derby.
Things like traction systems, bogies and TMS software (TMS being absolutely key to the systems integration of the whole train).
Like the aircraft situation, I don't see Bombardier reinventing these products to avoid importing components from other parts of the group who now have the IPR.

The WTO tariffs for train parts are 3-4% but is 10% for complete trains. That would give Bombardier a slight advantage over CAF, Hitachi, Alstom (assembling in Widnes) and Siemens (once Goole opens) for UK orders and a big advantage over Stadler and Talgo (unless its factory plans go ahead).

but we wont need any of those forin fings after brexit!

The point being the cost of importing those items ( let alone a complete train) MIGHT become prohibitive meaning more components have to be sourced at home. Anyway that is off topic for this thread.

It is not off topic because Bombardier Derby is the largest train factory in the UK and if we leave the EU without a deal it would provide an advantage over manufacturers without a UK presence. The WTO tariffs for parts are certainly not prohibitive. I am not a brexiteer but there are some advantages for specific parts of economy (I think it would be bad for the economy as a whole). It would accelerate the trend towards trains being assembled in UK rather than be imported. The UK would also be free to copy US laws that specify the majority of parts and labour for government procured contracts has to be done in the US. That is why Stadler is building a factory in the US and combined with tariffs would make a CAF / Hitachi type facility and a large number of British suppliers the minimum required to be competitive in the UK rolling stock market.

I think the UK government would be prepared to give financial support to Bombardier if it has serious financial problems. It is a major employer and it would be an opportunity to turn into an Anglo-Canadian company. I doubt the Canadian or Quebec government would object after having to finance the bailout of the C series plane. The government offered to buy upto a 30% stake in Tata Steel UK and provide commercial rate loans to help prospective buyers.

 

[hooverboy]

The WTO tariffs for train parts are 3-4% but is 10% for complete trains. That would give Bombardier a slight advantage over CAF, Hitachi, Alstom (assembling in Widnes) and Siemens (once Goole opens) for UK orders and a big advantage over Stadler and Talgo (unless its factory plans go ahead).

quite a big advantage in fact,considering the alstom/siemens merger is under scrutiny from the monopolies and mergers commission.decision pending.

as to specifying that a certain amount of parts/products should be built here,that ought to be the case anyway...if not,why not?

 

[43096]

There's lots more work to be done - 150s, 153/155s, 156s all have to go and soon. The 465 and 466s are likely to be replaced with new EMUs in the new Southeastern franchise, and the 165/166s aren't going to last forever, they could potentially be replaced by the end of the next decade - technically speaking they too are already end of life, but in the context of sprinters they seem nowhere near it. The DMUs on southwestern will probably be replace by the end of the 2020s as well, as could be some of the other 158s around. Then there's the EMT HSTs to replace, as well as long-term considerations for what replaces the 'stopgap' converted HSTs other operators are using. Plenty of work around, the question is who will be getting it?

But not enough work over an 8-10 year period to keep factories busy for Bombardier, Alstom, Siemens, CAF and Hitachi, though. I note that Stadler have not been dumb enough to go down the UK factory route. Given that it is not so long since the UK could barely sustain one factory (Derby Litchurch Lane), five seems a ridiculous number given the stop/start nature of rail investment and the risks of a post-Brexit world.

 

[Domh245]

There's lots more work to be done - 150s, 153/155s, 156s all have to go and soon. The 465 and 466s are likely to be replaced with new EMUs in the new Southeastern franchise, and the 165/166s aren't going to last forever, they could potentially be replaced by the end of the next decade - technically speaking they too are already end of life, but in the context of sprinters they seem nowhere near it. The DMUs on southwestern will probably be replace by the end of the 2020s as well, as could be some of the other 158s around. Then there's the EMT HSTs to replace, as well as long-term considerations for what replaces the 'stopgap' converted HSTs other operators are using. Plenty of work around, the question is who will be getting it?

There is a fair amount of work, but you've also got to remember when that work will be required. The next 5 franchises to be awarded are South Eastern, West Coast, East Midlands, Cross Country, and Great Western, which takes you up to the start of 2020 and will have a few orders as a result - Hitachi or Alstom for SE metro stock replacement (854 vehicles), HS2 stock and potential voyager replacement (100 vehicles) for WCP, potential full fleet for East Midlands (~60 regional vehicles + ~280 HS vehicles), GWR potentially going for replacement of all non-new stock (~400 vehicles) and say another extra ~100 vehicles for XC.

854 metro vehicles, 479 HS vehicles, and 424 DMUs. Assuming that the metro vehicles all go to Hitachi N.A., that's a solid 2 years work at maximum production of 35 vehicles/month. The HS vehicles would keep Litchurch lane ticking over for a year or two (big "if" that they get that work though), and the DMUs would probably keep Newport going for a couple of years as well. So that's 3 plants ticking over until around 2023 in something of a "best case" - it's entirely plausible that Litchurch Lane get no orders for the forseeable and run out of things to build after 2021, or that Alstom pick up the SE Metro contract leaving Hitachi with a handful of AT300s

After that, the franchise schedule looks unhelpful, there are potential orders from Chiltern & 313/365 replacement for TSGN at the tail end of 2021, but then the next realistic chance of orders would be 15x replacement on SWR with the next franchise commencing mid 2024, and Northern which is going to be the next big order (you'd hope!) in 2025. Certainly there don't seem to be any potential guaranteed wins (commuter EMUs) for Bombardier other than TSGN in the current franchise schedule, they need to hope that they pick up some orders for the HS Aventra, and potentially develop a turbostar replacement as well if they want a better chance of staying open

 

[Mikey C]

Bombardier have made a pig's ear with the introduction of the Aventra

But I wouldn't sing the praises of CAF and Stadler too much until they too have delivered their orders, Stadler in particular are very inexperienced in the UK

 

[Chester1]

quite a big advantage in fact,considering the alstom/siemens merger is under scrutiny from the monopolies and mergers commission.decision pending.

as to specifying that a certain amount of parts/products should be built here,that ought to be the case anyway...if not,why not?

It is against EU law. Other countries are better at getting around the laws so that the work is ussually done locally but even then some tenders go outside of the country.

 

[whhistle]

EDIT - there does seem to be a downer on Bombardier on these boards and an odd love of the likes of Stadler. Why is that?

I wonder if Stadler is just the latest toy, but Bombardier seem a bit old hat - maybe because the country is somewhat saturated with their designs (IE, you see them nearly all over the country).

That's why I get tired of seeing Sprinters.
You see them everywhere, so their look is a bit boring now.

I get that way when I see the 377 design.
Similar feelings on the Turbostar cab design.

Perhaps also it's a look between Siemens (350) and Voyagers on the West Coast.
One rattles a lot more than the other and with the universal feel of disgust against the Voyagers, perhaps that also plays a part.