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The Next General Election

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bramling

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I think a couple of things from Boris and the wider Party will cause the Conservatives to lose a lot of votes if an election was called, several things that would are:

  1. Net Migration, its been a Conservative pledge to get it down to tens of thousands for the past 9 years they haven't anywhere near achieved this. Would voters trust them for a fourth election in a row? Also Boris is rumored to want to scrap the pledge which would annoy a lot of Conservative voters if the party was seen to ignore their concerns about immigration.
  2. Brexit, in 2015 the party said they would hold a referendum and the people would decide, we had the vote and leave won. In 2017 Theresa May called an election so she could implement Brexit and the party has failed to do that would voters trust them again?
  3. Heathrow expansion, Boris pledged to lie down in front of the bulldozers but has now backtracked, the press and Labour party will attack him for this making him look like an idiot and he will struggle.

I don’t think factors 2 and 3 are a major problem. Heathrow is a localised issue, it’s simply not something on the radar for anyone outside those immediately affected. As for not implementing Brexit, this would no doubt be pinned to Theresa May’s door, and in any case it’s more “parliament” that is seen to be the road block.

As for immigration, yes I agree many would be displeased about the target being dropped, but no one in their right mind is then going to go and vote Labour or Liberal Democrat as that would almost certainly be very much worse. Brexit party might pick up a protest vote or two, but they’re not really focussed on immigration in the way UKIP were.

I tend to agree with what people have said that any election outcome will be determined by the amount of tactical voting and/or how the vote is split by minor parties. I think the Conservative vote share will hold up and Labour’s will decline (but not decline as much as some predict). However with the electoral system this could still translate into a haywire result. Anything is possible.
 
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DarloRich

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I don’t think factors 2 and 3 are a major problem. Heathrow is a localised issue, it’s simply not something on the radar for anyone outside those immediately affected. As for not implementing Brexit, this would no doubt be pinned to Theresa May’s door, and in any case it’s more “parliament” that is seen to be the road block.

As for immigration, yes I agree many would be displeased about the target being dropped, but no one in their right mind is then going to go and vote Labour or Liberal Democrat as that would almost certainly be very much worse. Brexit party might pick up a protest vote or two, but they’re not really focussed on immigration in the way UKIP were.

I tend to agree with what people have said that any election outcome will be determined by the amount of tactical voting and/or how the vote is split by minor parties. I think the Conservative vote share will hold up and Labour’s will decline (but not decline as much as some predict). However with the electoral system this could still translate into a haywire result. Anything is possible.

agreed. Haywire is the word.
 

ainsworth74

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Okay we don't need two threads on the same General Election so this one has been locked. Please continue the discussion in this thread here.
 
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