The next place to lose a direct London link

[bluenoxid]

Other - Scotland

I could readily imagine passengers disembarking at Carlisle and Berwick Upon Tweed to pass through Border Control and onto International Platforms for onward shuttle services to Edinburgh/Glasgow and beyond.

Look, I don't know how Tory you are but we are not going to leave the EU that quickly because the Scots have thrown a tantrum :roll:

 

[DaveNewcastle]

Inverness (takes cover )

You are right to feel anxiety about the political pressues that would be invoked in Inverness lost its daily Chieftan service to Perth, Edin, Newcastle, York and London.
Recent discussions between DfT and TfS have agreed to keep the current provision intact in the next franchise - but we all know how fragile political agreements can be.

But I'd rather look at the question the other way round:
Which cities would it be appropriate for Inverness (and Perth & Stirling) to be connected to by a direct rail service? and then, as a secondary question, which cities would it be appropriate for Inverness (& P & S) to be connected to by just one simple and regular change?

We may have a variety of views of the city's connectivity with Manchester, Liverpool, Birmingham, Bristol, etc. Personally, I think an additional stop on the Chieftan at Peterborough would usefully enhance those cities access to Leicester, Norwich, Cambridge etc.

Can we look more closely at the needs of the cities concerned, please, rather than to look at the demands that flow from London?

 

[Liam]

I think something like Lockerbie. IIRC it only gets one train to and one train from Euston each day. Everything else is Edinburgh/Glasgow-Manchester/Birmingham.

 

[WatcherZero]

I say Holyhead because work was done on the business case for electrifying to Chester and curtailing the London-North Wales services at Chester, it was even pushed by Dft as a option in West Coast Franchise bids that they would look favourbly on.

 

[Zoe]

If Scotland joined Schengen then there would have to be border controls unless the remaining UK also joined.

 

[Jonny]

Look, I don't know how Tory you are but we are not going to leave the EU that quickly because the Scots have thrown a tantrum :roll:

I read in one of the broadsheets (might have been the Telegraph - my newspaper of choice) that if Scotland left the UK, then both Scotland and the remaining UK would be deemed to be new countries and would have to re-negotiate their EU membership.

Of course, leaving the EU altogether (assuming leaving the EEA as well) would mean needing a visa or visa waiver-type paperwork (and the aggro related to it) just to go to France, let alone Spain, Italy, Greece, Germany, etc... :-x

Which might just be enough to keep us in the EU OTOH it would make it easier for those who would be rid of EU migrants.

 

[marks87]

If Scotland joined Schengen then there would have to be border controls unless the remaining UK also joined.

There's no border controls between NI and ROI and I suspect the same would apply between Scotland and "UK".

But I also suspect the point is moot

 

[Zoe]

There's no border controls between NI and ROI and I suspect the same would apply between Scotland and "UK".

If Ireland were to join Schengen though and the UK didn't then there would be border controls.

 

[WatcherZero]

I read in one of the broadsheets (might have been the Telegraph - my newspaper of choice) that if Scotland left the UK, then both Scotland and the remaining UK would be deemed to be new countries and would have to re-negotiate their EU membership.

Of course, leaving the EU altogether (assuming leaving the EEA as well) would mean needing a visa or visa waiver-type paperwork (and the aggro related to it) just to go to France, let alone Spain, Italy, Greece, Germany, etc... :-x

Which might just be enough to keep us in the EU OTOH it would make it easier for those who would be rid of EU migrants.

Depends how its done, usually when a country splits you have whats called the 'Successor' country which assumes all the wealth, debt and international treaties of the former country while the rest become new states with no international diplomatic history, essentially newborns politically and economically. The larger state is usually the one recognised as the successor and that would be the UK.

For example when the Ottoman Empire was dissolved forming Greece, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Turkey, Egypt, Sudan, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq, Libya, Palestine and more it was Turkey that was recognised as the Successor state. When the USSR collapsed it was Russia which was recognised. More complicated was the collapse of Yugoslavia, The title of successor was claimed by the rump state (later renamed Bosnia and Herzegovina) but the international community refused to recognise it as the sole successor and eventually it was agreed that they would all be recognised as successor and assets would be divied up according to population.

 

[HSTEd]

I read in one of the broadsheets (might have been the Telegraph - my newspaper of choice) that if Scotland left the UK, then both Scotland and the remaining UK would be deemed to be new countries and would have to re-negotiate their EU membership.

Almost, the remaining UK woudl be the "successor state" and so would inherit the current UK's international relationships.

However Scotland would be left outside the EU and would have to reapply for membership from scratch, and since Spain and France and the like do not want to hand ammunition to separatist movements like the Catalans or Basques they are unlikely to allow Scotland to retain any of the UK's opt outs.

This means that Scotland would be forced to join the euro and Schengen, which would necessitate enormous border controls.

 

[stut]

Does Scarborough really have "a London link". I suppose it does, but I can't imagine many are on for the duration, just as I don't imagine the number of Scousers on holidays to the Broads or on business trips to Aviva manage to sustain that particular EMT service...

 

[Eire Sprinter]

The population in North Wales isn't *that* big:

Holyhead = 13,580
Bangor = 21,735
Rhyl = 24,889

Plus, whilst not on the direct London route, Llandudno = 20,090). Meanwhile, if you are looking for somewhere to extend London - Chester trains to then the current Metropolitan Borough of Wirral has a population of 312,293 people (according to the 2001 census).

That said, I'd be surprised to see Holyhead's London link withdrawn (though it's more for political reasons than anything else)

(all figures taken from Wiki)

Perhaps not that big relative to places elsewhere but its nonetheless a sizeable customer base especially when all the catchment towns and areas are taken into consideration. Caernarfon is another town that comes to mind.

"WatcherZero I say Holyhead because work was done on the business case for electrifying to Chester and curtailing the London-North Wales services at Chester, it was even pushed by Dft as a option in West Coast Franchise bids that they would look favourbly on. "

Wonder have the people in Dft who propose these options an awareness of the fact that the line to North Wales is a strategic link to Ireland.

 

[SprinterMan]

Wrexham General is where I would bet, I cannot see the new WCML operator continuing on Virgin's little one-a-day service (even if VT retain, the service is doomed). It's like the folk of Wrexham just don't want to go to London.
Adam :P

 

[Cliveblackpool]

Places at the 'end of the line' like Cornwall would be seriously disadvantaged losing through fast services to London. They need improving not cutting.
Imo electrifying to Exeter only is doing 1/2 a job!
Government must look at the bigger picture.

 

[Sleepy]

? Surprised no one has mentioned Great Yarmouth Summer Saturday services - I am sure Network Rail would love to end these given state of tracks at Yarmouth never mind future TOC high costs (3 x crew / fuel) !!

 

[tbtc]

I think something like Lockerbie. IIRC it only gets one train to and one train from Euston each day

? Surprised no one has mentioned Great Yarmouth Summer Saturday services - I am sure Network Rail would love to end these given state of tracks at Yarmouth never mind future TOC high costs (3 x crew / fuel) !!

Two good examples (that I wish I'd put in the poll now)!

Places at the 'end of the line' like Cornwall would be seriously disadvantaged losing through fast services to London

An open question - would places really be "seriously disadvantaged" by this loss?

Or, put it another way, what evidence is there that Wrexham/ Sunderland/ Hartlepool/ Halifax and Pontefract have become richer since their direct London trains started in the last few years? Has there been real economic impact on these towns/ cities? Other than the civic price of being put "on the map"?

 

[Failed Unit]

Lincoln, I think it is just an annoyance for east coast and EMT will withdraw once electrification happens (at which point Scarborough will go).

Inverness is safe as long as the sleepers exist.

 

[WestCoast]

This means that Scotland would be forced to join the euro and Schengen, which would necessitate enormous border controls.

In all likelihood though, an independent Scotland should be able to secure an opt-out from the Schengen Agreement and join the Common Travel Area instead. They have a very strong case given their geographical position - there's absolutely no history of modern border controls with England. The Republic of Ireland IIRC didn't oppose Schengen, but given the huge costs and isolation effect of a land frontier with Ulster, had to take the UK's stance.

 

[Failed Unit]

Other - Scotland

I could readily imagine passengers disembarking at Carlisle and Berwick Upon Tweed to pass through Border Control and onto International Platforms for onward shuttle services to Edinburgh/Glasgow and beyond.

I don't think independance will happen unless England win the 2014 world cup.

 

[VTPreston_Tez]

My bets on Lockerbie - too insignificant to render a London service. Maybe even Oxenholme/Penrith in the near future if these services go to Manchester, Liverpool, or Birmingham over London.

 

[kieron]

Meanwhile, if you are looking for somewhere to extend London - Chester trains to then the current Metropolitan Borough of Wirral has a population of 312,293 people (according to the 2001 census).

The populations of a few random towns don't say much about North Wales, but there are certainly a lot of people on the Wirral. Where would you propose these diesel trains should go there?

"WatcherZero I say Holyhead because work was done on the business case for electrifying to Chester and curtailing the London-North Wales services at Chester, it was even pushed by Dft as a option in West Coast Franchise bids that they would look favourbly on. "

Wonder have the people in Dft who propose these options an awareness of the fact that the line to North Wales is a strategic link to Ireland.

The line is, but most of the direct trains are timed for people going to London for the day, rather than for the ferries.

There are hourly trains changing at Chester, so any services Virgin (or its successor) cuts would translate directly into revenue lost to Arriva. I don't know how they'd feel about that.

The current Wrexham-London service definitely has a poor prognosis, particularly given the work that's going into improving the Chester-Shrewsbury line. As that's still only going to be 90mph, I don't expect much interest in sending a London train that way.

 

[gnolife]

I personally think that Corby will lose the direct service to London, and be replaced by a 153 or 156 running a Corby - Kettering shuttle. The 222s gained from this could go onto Liverpool - Norwich or else go towards extending the Sheffield fast to Leeds, or replacing the HST sets that EMT have (which could then go to Grand Central, which sends 180s to FGW). The lost service at Kettering, Wellingborough, Bedford and Luton (town) could be solved by having the Sheffield stopper make additional calls at these stations.

 

[TaysideTrainz]

All of the Sleeper services and East Coast link to Aberdeen and Inverness

 

[HSTEd]

In all likelihood though, an independent Scotland should be able to secure an opt-out from the Schengen Agreement and join the Common Travel Area instead. They have a very strong case given their geographical position - there's absolutely no history of modern border controls with England. The Republic of Ireland IIRC didn't oppose Schengen, but given the huge costs and isolation effect of a land frontier with Ulster, had to take the UK's stance.

Yes, indeed it would be to Scotland's benefit to secure such an opt out... but why would the French and Spanish and other European nations allow them to get one?

The UK obtained its opt outs through endless negotiation and being involved in the drafting of said measures. Scotland would be a minor latecomer to the party.
Giving Scotland anything at all would be handing ammunition to the Basques and Catalans.

 

[Robinson]

I personally think that Corby will lose the direct service to London, and be replaced by a 153 or 156 running a Corby - Kettering shuttle. The 222s gained from this could go onto Liverpool - Norwich or else go towards extending the Sheffield fast to Leeds, or replacing the HST sets that EMT have (which could then go to Grand Central, which sends 180s to FGW). The lost service at Kettering, Wellingborough, Bedford and Luton (town) could be solved by having the Sheffield stopper make additional calls at these stations.

Maybe First Hull Trains could gain from cascaded 180s as well? If nothing else to ensure that they have enough units available on a consistent basis (there seem to have been a fair few days when there has been a curtailed timetable in operation up those parts)...

 

[WestCoast]

Yes, indeed it would be to Scotland's benefit to secure such an opt out... but why would the French and Spanish and other European nations allow them to get one?

The UK obtained its opt outs through endless negotiation and being involved in the drafting of said measures. Scotland would be a minor latecomer to the party.
Giving Scotland anything at all would be handing ammunition to the Basques and Catalans.

They'll get an opt-out because there's no way an external Schengen border is going to be be erected between Scotland and England! I don't think the other nations would oppose it because they'd have to part-fund the damn thing. It all comes down to money in this economic climate. Plus, Cyprus are still getting away with having border controls and they're actually part of Schengen!

Anyway, this is very unlikely to ever be a problem and even if it was, London would not lose direct links to Scotland because of the option of on-train processing.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Anyway, I do think Wrexham is an obvious candidate to go given what's happening with the WC franchise.

 

[cuccir]

Or, put it another way, what evidence is there that Wrexham/ Sunderland/ Hartlepool/ Halifax and Pontefract have become richer since their direct London trains started in the last few years? Has there been real economic impact on these towns/ cities? Other than the civic price of being put "on the map"?

Well though they can be dodgy statistics, the station usage figures for Sunderland show a decline up to 2007, and an increase every year since 2008. Both Hartlepool and Eagslecliffe also show increases.

Obviously this doesn't automatically translate into an economic impact but it seems reasonable to presume that a proportion of these passengers will have used local shops, local taxi firms, local buses to get to/from the station.

Is it possible that money has been lost as people leave the towns to spend in London instead? Well it is, but it seems a bit of a stretch to imagine that people were going to Hartlepool town centre for big days out and are instead going to London - it's much more likely replaced a trip to the Metrocentre or Newcastle. It's also very possible that people in the past were driving to Durham/Darlington and taking the train from there, rather than spending their money locally.

So I'm not sure if it will have had a huge impact, but it does seem to boost numbers using a station, which in turn points to some level of increased dynamism.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Interesting poll, i think scarbrough and pembroke dock... will lose quickly. Does scarbrough really need one?

 

[34D]

Interesting poll, i think scarbrough and pembroke dock... will lose quickly. Does scarbrough really need one?

To be fair, Scarborough is the only place listed that doesn't have a service for travel _from_ it to London - purpose of the scarborough train is to bring people from Leicester etc to Scarborough. Isn't it summer only anyway?

Is it possible for a mod to amend the poll to add Lockerbie etc?

I'm going to be contentious and add Northallerton and Chester le Street to the places that may loose their London service (CLS may already have done).

 

[Robinson]

To be fair, Scarborough is the only place listed that doesn't have a service for travel _from_ it to London - purpose of the scarborough train is to bring people from Leicester etc to Scarborough. Isn't it summer only anyway?

Is it possible for a mod to amend the poll to add Lockerbie etc?

I'm going to be contentious and add Northallerton and Chester le Street to the places that may loose their London service (CLS may already have done).

Chester-le-Street has indeed not got a direct London service. There's limited XC and Northern services; the rest are TPE.