• Our booking engine at tickets.railforums.co.uk (powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

Theresa May calls General Election on 8th June.

Status
Not open for further replies.

pemma

Veteran Member
Joined
23 Jan 2009
Messages
31,474
Location
Knutsford
Abbott got just as much crap flung at her when she was a backbencher.

Not many back benchers who oppose their own party's views on so many subjects appeared on a weekly politics program.

Labour's international trade spokesman Barry Gardiner took part in a radio show. He didn't disclose what illness Abbott had but implied she'll be absent long-term.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

ainsworth74

Forum Staff
Staff Member
Global Moderator
Joined
16 Nov 2009
Messages
27,536
Location
Redcar
that is why we maintain at least one submarine constantly at sea, armed and ready to fire. I think the specification for trident was the total destruction of 15 Russian cities by any one submarine. That should be enough destructive power to deter most mental countries.

A fully armed Vanguard missile submarine could theoretically deliver 224 warheads to 224 different targets (an American Ohio class submarine could deliver 336 warheads to 336 different targets but is limited by treaties). Obviously you'd want to hit some targets more than once to ensure the target is destroyed but a fully armed boat could, as the Yes Prime Minister episode put it, obliterate Eastern Europe (though these days, of course, they're our friends).

Of course, it's doubtful that a Vanguard submarine has ever carried a full payload and these days we don't maintain enough warheads to fully arm even a single submarine. The stated payload is around 40 warheads per submarine when they're on patrol. More than enough to destroy Moscow and St Petersburg however and enough to cause extreme damage to smaller countries.

NATO are repeatedly criticising us for not contributing 2% GDP towards defence.

Pardon? What's the source for this? There is some jiggery pokery going on in our figures to prop them up but we're still at 2% last I checked. And as for NATO criticising us considering that we're one of only five NATO states to be spending at least 2% (according to NATO's own figures for 2016) then I'm not sure why we're getting criticized when countries like Germany, Italy, Spain and Canada are all spending less than 2% (and in some cases substantially less).

Only Labour, oddly enough, are promising to meet that target.

As far as I'm aware Labour, the Tories and Lib Dems have all pledged to meet the 2% target.
 

me123

Established Member
Joined
9 Jul 2007
Messages
8,510
I'll eat my hat if the Tories don't get an outright majority.

... careful!

I would also be surprised, but there's been a significant rise in the number of young people planning to vote which could catch people unaware. I'll be surprised if anyone other than Theresa May walks back through the doors of Number 10 on Friday morning but her majority, although likely, is not guaranteed.

I'd love to see her lose her majority. It's not an unrealistic goal, and her position would be much less secure than it was previously.
 

Y961 XBU

Member
Joined
16 Apr 2014
Messages
1,128
Location
St Helens
... careful!

I would also be surprised, but there's been a significant rise in the number of young people planning to vote which could catch people unaware. I'll be surprised if anyone other than Theresa May walks back through the doors of Number 10 on Friday morning but her majority, although likely, is not guaranteed.

I'd love to see her lose her majority. It's not an unrealistic goal, and her position would be much less secure than it was previously.

If we all work together we can make her lose her majority, tactical voting is key in this election
 

chris11256

Member
Joined
27 Dec 2012
Messages
734
Just in comparison to the YouGov model, Britain Elects is 'Nowcasting' 353 for Conservative and 219 for Labour.
 
Last edited:

telstarbox

Established Member
Joined
23 Jul 2010
Messages
5,928
Location
Wennington Crossovers
And Electoral Calculus is forecasting Con 361, Lab 216, Lib Dem 3 (the first two with increased vote share over 2015).

Has anyone put any bets on?
 
Last edited:

me123

Established Member
Joined
9 Jul 2007
Messages
8,510
If we all work together we can make her lose her majority, tactical voting is key in this election

That's sadly the reason why I shall be voting Labour. I don't like them and they've been relatively weak, particularly in the local area where they should have put up a proper fight. But there is a real prospect of them losing here. I think they'll actually extend their majority in Vale of Clwyd if the "tunnel of blue" I have to drive through en route to work is any indication, and there's not really all that many young people around here to give a huge boost to Labour, but the Tory majority is only a few hundred so it's far from certain.

I'd love to give Plaid my vote - I agree with them in opposing repatriating powers to Westminster from Cardiff, particularly with regard to the health service where That Useless Hunt is keen to control/sell off GIG Cymru as well as NHS England. But they stand absolutely no chance.
 

Y961 XBU

Member
Joined
16 Apr 2014
Messages
1,128
Location
St Helens
That's sadly the reason why I shall be voting Labour. I don't like them and they've been relatively weak, particularly in the local area where they should have put up a proper fight. But there is a real prospect of them losing here. I think they'll actually extend their majority in Vale of Clwyd if the "tunnel of blue" I have to drive through en route to work is any indication, and there's not really all that many young people around here to give a huge boost to Labour, but the Tory majority is only a few hundred so it's far from certain.

I'd love to give Plaid my vote - I agree with them in opposing repatriating powers to Westminster from Cardiff, particularly with regard to the health service where That Useless Hunt is keen to control/sell off GIG Cymru as well as NHS England. But they stand absolutely no chance.

Labour have also been a poor show up this way aswell, clearly taking their seat labour seat for granted
 

me123

Established Member
Joined
9 Jul 2007
Messages
8,510
Has anyone put any bets on?

Bookies usually have it pretty accurate.

Ladbrokes has the odds of a Tory win (most seats) at 1/12, a Tory Majority at 2/9. They seem to be predicting 363 Tory seats, 207 Labour seats, 10 Lib Dem seats and 45 SNP seats. (This relates to the over/under section of the betting slip at time of writing, where there are equal 5/6 odds for seats over and under the stated numbers).

Doesn't look set to be a good night, but stranger things have happened.
 

telstarbox

Established Member
Joined
23 Jul 2010
Messages
5,928
Location
Wennington Crossovers
Bookies usually have it pretty accurate.

Ladbrokes has the odds of a Tory win (most seats) at 1/12, a Tory Majority at 2/9. They seem to be predicting 363 Tory seats, 207 Labour seats, 10 Lib Dem seats and 45 SNP seats. (This relates to the over/under section of the betting slip at time of writing, where there are equal 5/6 odds for seats over and under the stated numbers).

Doesn't look set to be a good night, but stranger things have happened.

Equal 5/6 odds for two outcomes adds up to 109% for both!

Remember that bookies also hedge, so if loads of people pile money on one side they'll lengthen the odds on the other to cover their risk.
 

BELLIE

Member
Joined
4 Feb 2017
Messages
18
I apologise if this has already been discussed here but I don't have the time to read each page.
What would nationalisation of the railways mean to it's employees in real terms? It is something I just don't understand
 

me123

Established Member
Joined
9 Jul 2007
Messages
8,510
Equal 5/6 odds for two outcomes adds up to 109% for both!

It's about as close to evens as you get with the bookies. They are in it to make money, so for a 50/50 decision they usually give you odds like 5/6 (they post very similar odds for those sad people who like to bet in the outcomes of coin tosses). So, at least according to Ladbrokes, there's an approximately 50% chance of being higher or lower than the numbers I've stated.
 

507021

Established Member
Joined
19 Feb 2015
Messages
4,670
Location
Chester
I came home from work and was extremely surprised to find a leaflet from the Tories sat on my doormat. Considering this is a very strong Labour and Remain area, and the election is tomorrow, I'm surprised they're even bothering. As per 2015, because I like my MP, I'm going to be voting Labour again.

The outcome of this election is going to be heavily reliant on the 18-24 age bracket turning out to vote. I just hope that all of the young voters saying they support Jeremy Corbyn and encouraging others to vote Labour (or vote tactically) actually go out and do it themselves.
 

Y961 XBU

Member
Joined
16 Apr 2014
Messages
1,128
Location
St Helens
Apparently only 40 percent of people aged 18-24 who was registered to vote acutally did, i hope this time more people make an effort!
 

me123

Established Member
Joined
9 Jul 2007
Messages
8,510
The suggestion is that they are, so here's hoping. Young people are registering in quite large numbers. If the opinion polls are being weighted to correct for a lack of young people voting, they could be wrong if the young voters do turn out.

It relies, of course, on those registrations converting into actual votes on the day, and of course young people are not a homogenous mass like the Daily Mail would have you believe, but will be voting across the political spectrum. They are more likely to vote Labour than the older voters, but are not guaranteed to do so.
 

507021

Established Member
Joined
19 Feb 2015
Messages
4,670
Location
Chester
Apparently only 40 percent of people aged 18-24 who was registered to vote acutally did, i hope this time more people make an effort!

Maybe the result of the European Referendum will be enough to make young people realise that the result of this election matters just as much as that referendum.
 

me123

Established Member
Joined
9 Jul 2007
Messages
8,510
If you can find a Bookie offering odds and you can afford it put £5 on Labour losing Vauxhall. The majority is 12,000 and sadly I think the Lib Dems will win.

I think I could just about manage a fiver if I was interested.

Lib Dems to take Vauxhall has 4/1 odds according to SkyBet (as ever, at time of posting). Labour have 1/7 odds in the same seat, though.
 

pemma

Veteran Member
Joined
23 Jan 2009
Messages
31,474
Location
Knutsford
ITV News showed Theresa May visiting a bowls club in Tory heartland and when members were interviewed away from May they all said they had no idea what her plans were and no confidence in her remaining as PM.
 

507021

Established Member
Joined
19 Feb 2015
Messages
4,670
Location
Chester
ITV News showed Theresa May visiting a bowls club in Tory heartland and when members were interviewed away from May they all said they had no idea what her plans were and no confidence in her remaining as PM.

You couldn't make it up.
 

Pinza-C55

Member
Joined
23 May 2015
Messages
1,028
I apologise if this has already been discussed here but I don't have the time to read each page.
What would nationalisation of the railways mean to it's employees in real terms? It is something I just don't understand

In the model Corbyn is proposing the franchises would be transferred over to a new British Rail style company when they expire. I imagine their rights would be protected under TUPE or harmonised together so that they didn't lose out ?
 

furnessvale

Established Member
Joined
14 Jul 2015
Messages
4,558
In the model Corbyn is proposing the franchises would be transferred over to a new British Rail style company when they expire. I imagine their rights would be protected under TUPE or harmonised together so that they didn't lose out ?

Indeed, national bargaining would return and the leapfrogging and playing one company off against another, which has resulted in very nice pay deals for certain grades, would end.

Give it ten years and railway pay scales would return to the comparative levels they "enjoyed" in the past.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top