Theresa May Resigns & Conservative Leader Election Discussion

[Typhoon]

My apologies if I came over a bit strong there.

You are right ('Sorry' wasn't meant sarcastically). Alexander Boris Johnson can be unpleasant and uncaring when he wants to be. The way he has treated two wives, who he professed to love was abominable in my opinion. His statements on child sexual abuse show a complete lack of empathy ( https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-child-abuse-investigation-comments-police-knife-crime-a8820631.html ) and his lack of response to Laura Smith MP show the sort of arrogance that was on show when taking questions when debate in the GLC was televised. He seems to be totally self-centred.

Or, if we are lucky, Rachel.

I can't remember whether she is in Change now or still the LibDems so a long way from power. That's not luck, that's a miracle!​

 

[Chester1]

I am hoping that Boris Johnson has enough enemies in the parliamentary party that he is not one of the 2 candidates selected to be put to the general membership otherwise I fear he will win. The office is well beyond his ability.

I have been thinking that the recent state of affairs is not dissimilar to the situation in the Weimar Republic with a weak minority government ruling by decree. I can't help thinking that these are dangerous times.

The Tories have never elected the bookies favourite at the start of the contest because they have made too many enemies. The last favourite was Anthony Eden in 1955 who was chosen under the informal process where a party elder consulted the cabinet individually and gave a recommendation to the Queen. That was replaced in 1965 by MPs ballots and again in 1998. There will be plenty of Tories doing their best to stop him winning. Penny Mordaunt, Andrea Leadsom, Dominic Raab and Michael Gove will likely run. I think it will be a brexiteer but not Boris Johnson.

 

[433N]

The Tories have never elected the bookies favourite at the start of the contest because they have made too many enemies.

This isn't really surprising, is it ? The bookie's favourite is the one who has most bets from members of the public and what do they know ? It isn't necessarily the person the public want or the parliamentary party want or the grass roots want.

I think it will be a brexiteer but not Boris Johnson.

I don't think it will be acceptable to anyone (except me and other Remain fossils who are struggling to see the glossy vision of our bright new future outside the EU) that it will be a Remainer given the last one. I think now only a Brexiteer can save the Tory party at the polls and ... you know ... Party first.

 

[Bald Rick]

The Tories have never elected the bookies favourite at the start of the contest because they have made too many enemies.

There’s always a first time. And this time is different:

1) Boris is odds on favourite in a big field: in equine terms a ‘racing cert’
2) the grass roots Tories love him
3) the rest of the field is relatively average
4) he has this unusual (for a politician) capability to ‘get away with it’, and still be considered as a fine upstanding member of the community (by his supporters): Fathering children not with his wife, having affairs with his staff, taking whopping advances for books and then not writing them on time, complete policy reversals, etc.

The only thing that will stop him is if he doesn’t get through the initial selection process.

 

[takno]

Another Conservative Prime Minister defeated by policy towards the European Union, it seems to be the Achilles Heel of every Conservative Prime Minister.

To be fair, Brexit got her the job, and everything she's done apart from Brexit suggests she's utterly self-centred, incompetent, and wildly too stupid to run a shoe shop let alone a country. If Brexit wasn't happening she'd have whittled the 2015 majority down to single figures through by-elections and defections, and she'd probably be getting turfed out right now as the Tories looked down the barrel of a 2020 defeat.

Brexit has been bad for the country, and bad for her party, but for her it's been a convenient shield to hide behind while she persistently does the wrong thing for everybody on everything.

 

[Cowley]

To be fair, Brexit got her the job, and everything she's done apart from Brexit suggests she's utterly self-centred, incompetent, and wildly too stupid to run a shoe shop let alone a country. If Brexit wasn't happening she'd have whittled the 2015 majority down to single figures through by-elections and defections, and she'd probably be getting turfed out right now as the Tories looked down the barrel of a 2020 defeat.

Brexit has been bad for the country, and bad for her party, but for her it's been a convenient shield to hide behind while she persistently does the wrong thing for everybody on everything.

I must say that I agree with you.
She was probably ok to have as your boss in a close knit team (and I’m sure many of us have worked for a boss like that), but she had no ability or charisma to motivate a larger circle - let alone a country into following her.
The wheels would be coming off her leadership by now anyway.

 

[edwin_m]

I must say that I agree with you.
She was probably ok to have as your boss in a close knit team (and I’m sure many of us have worked for a boss like that), but she had no ability or charisma to motivate a larger circle - let alone a country into following her.
The wheels would be coming off her leadership by now anyway.

Partly agreeing with that, but I don't think any of the other candidates in 2016 would have done any better.

 

[thenorthern]

Historically with Conservative leadership elections the winner is someone people don't expect to win, think about it in 2016 Boris Johnson was expected to be the next PM but he messed up. In 2005 David Davis was expected to win but David Cameron won. In 2003 it was expected there would be a range of candidates but only Michael Howard stood and was elected unopposed. In 2001 Michael Portillo should have won but there was tactical voting to stop him. In 1997 Ken Clarke was expected to win but William Hague beat him. In 1990 Michael Heseltine was expected to win but John Major won. In 1975 Ted Heath was expected to hold onto leadership but Thatcher beat him.

To be fair, Brexit got her the job, and everything she's done apart from Brexit suggests she's utterly self-centred, incompetent, and wildly too stupid to run a shoe shop let alone a country. If Brexit wasn't happening she'd have whittled the 2015 majority down to single figures through by-elections and defections, and she'd probably be getting turfed out right now as the Tories looked down the barrel of a 2020 defeat.

Brexit has been bad for the country, and bad for her party, but for her it's been a convenient shield to hide behind while she persistently does the wrong thing for everybody on everything.

Not too sure about the majority going down if anything I think it would have gone up as remember in Copeland in the by-election in 2017 just before the General Election was announced which the Conservatives gained the seat which was the first time a governing party had won a by-election since 1981. Calling the General Election and running on a dreadful campaign was the beginning of the end for Theresa May.

 

[Cowley]

Historically with Conservative leadership elections the winner is someone people don't expect to win, think about it in 2016 Boris Johnson was expected to be the next PM but he messed up. In 2005 David Davis was expected to win but David Cameron won. In 2003 it was expected there would be a range of candidates but only Michael Howard stood and was elected unopposed. In 2001 Michael Portillo should have won but there was tactical voting to stop him. In 1997 Ken Clarke was expected to win but William Hague beat him. In 1990 Michael Heseltine was expected to win but John Major won. In 1975 Ted Heath was expected to hold onto leadership but Thatcher beat him.



Not too sure about the majority going down if anything I think it would have gone up as remember in Copeland in the by-election in 2017 just before the General Election was announced which the Conservatives gained the seat which was the first time a governing party had won a by-election since 1981. Calling the General Election and running on a dreadful campaign was the beginning of the end for Theresa May.

Always thought that Ken Clarke was the best leader that the Tory’s never had.
I know he wouldn’t have been popular with the anti EU section of the party, and probably would never have become leader for that reason, but he has a certain degree of authority that none of the others have had.

 

[EM2]

The new leader will be stuck between the same rock and the same hard place as May.
The ones that want 'no deal' won't accept a deal, and those that want a deal won't allow 'no deal'. And they still have to solve the Irish border issue.
The only way forward is to lay out, in clear uncertain terms, exactly what impact 'no deal' will have on the country, and how any proposed deal will ameliorate that.
And even that might not be enough to get hardliners onside.

 

[takno]

Always thought that Ken Clarke was the best leader that the Tory’s never had.
I know he wouldn’t have been popular with the anti EU section of the party, and probably would never have become leader for that reason, but he has a certain degree of authority that none of the others have had.

I tend to agree, and I think there's an interesting question about whether Blair would have raised his game and been a better leader if the Tories had provided meaningful opposition.

You could probably ask the same question with May and Corbyn, but as hapless as they are at opposing each other they could both start an argument in an empty room and lose.

 

[Groningen]

And so when will the next PM be known!? Begin August!? Now there will be no more talks between the UK and EU, but what kind of difference of approach will there be from both sides? None

BTW the resign words of May and Cameron were almost the same. Proud to same the country. In my eyes proud to save the Tory party.

 

[Qwerty133]

I tend to agree, and I think there's an interesting question about whether Blair would have raised his game and been a better leader if the Tories had provided meaningful opposition.

You could probably ask the same question with May and Corbyn, but as hapless as they are at opposing each other they could both start an argument in an empty room and lose.

But Ken Clarke wouldn't provide effective opposition for Tony Blair as the vast majority of their views are basically the same.

 

[scotrail158713]

The new leader will be stuck between the same rock and the same hard place as May.
The ones that want 'no deal' won't accept a deal, and those that want a deal won't allow 'no deal'. And they still have to solve the Irish border issue.
The only way forward is to lay out, in clear uncertain terms, exactly what impact 'no deal' will have on the country, and how any proposed deal will ameliorate that.
And even that might not be enough to get hardliners onside.

Yes. I don’t see how another leader will do things any differently.

 

[Master29]

On 18 Mar 2002:Theresa May voted no on Hunting with Dogs: Ban

On 26 May 2016:Theresa May voted in favour of repealing the Human Rights Act 1998; against plans to save the steel industry including fast-tracking infrastructure projects requiring large amounts of steel.

On 16 Apr 2013:Theresa May voted to remove the duty on the Commission for Equality and Human Rights to work to support the development of a society where people's ability to achieve their potential is not limited by prejudice or discrimination and there is respect for human rights.

On 16 Apr 2013:Theresa May voted against making it illegal to discriminate on the basis of caste.

On 6 Jan 2016:Theresa May voted in favour of cutting universal credit benefits for many people in paid work

On 18 Nov 2015:Theresa May voted for proposed cuts to tax credits and against investment aimed at growing a productive economy focused on science, technology and green jobs

On 27 Oct 2015:Theresa May voted in favour of reducing the amount people are paid in tax credits.

On 4 Jun 2015:Theresa May voted in favour of proposed spending cuts and changes to the welfare system and in favour of spending on new nuclear weapons.

On 21 Jan 2013:Theresa May voted to set the rate of increase of certain benefits, payments and tax credits at 1% rather than in line with prices at 2.2% for 2014 and 2015

On 21 Jan 2013:Theresa May voted to cap any increase in specified benefits payments and tax credits at 1% rather allow them to be increased by 2.2% in line with prices.

On 21 Jan 2013:Theresa May voted to cap any increase in specified benefits payments and tax credits at 1% rather than allow them to increase by 2.2% in line with prices.

On 8 Jan 2013:Theresa May voted to cap any increase discretionary working age benefits and tax credits at 1% in 2014-15 and 2015-16

On 7 Jun 2016:Theresa May voted for the mass retention of information on people's internet usage.

On 7 Jun 2016:Theresa May voted to allow the bulk interception of communications, equipment interference, and the retention and examination of bulk personal datasets, subject to certain safeguards.

On 15 Mar 2016:Theresa May voted to allow the bulk interception of communications, equipment interference, and the retention and examination of bulk personal datasets, subject to certain safeguards.

On 14 Mar 2016:Theresa May voted against requiring a strategy for carbon capture and storage for the energy industry


On 2 Feb 2011:Theresa May voted in favour of the sale of England's public forest estate.

On 5 Sep 2012:Theresa May voted against capping annual rail fair increases at 1% above inflation and not to ban increases in excess of that limit.

On 13 May 2014:Theresa May voted not to ban letting agents charging tenants, or prospective tenants, fees.

On 14 May 2013:Theresa May voted against calling on the Government to take real action on jobs, affordable accommodation, rising energy and water bills, the costs of travel to work.

OK. I suppose these are reason enough to rescind my comment just a little. I meant in comparison to the odious individuals waiting in the wings.

 

[takno]

OK. I suppose these are reason enough to rescind my comment just a little. I meant in comparison to the odious individuals waiting in the wings.

I'm not convinced that anybody in the wings actually is a worse person. Boris gives every impression of being a wholly self-centred effortless liar, but so does she, and on top of that she is unthinkingly cruel. I honestly don't think Boris would have done half the wicked things she did at the home office, if only because he's too damn lazy.

Literally the only thing she has over him is a weird personal attachment to a dead deal, which prevents her from accepting the no-deal that she did so much to legitimise herself. She's every bit as mortifyingly incompetent, and lacks the skill to do anything but leave us dangling on a precipice.

 

[Typhoon]

I'm not convinced that anybody in the wings actually is a worse person. Boris gives every impression of being a wholly self-centred effortless liar, but so does she, and on top of that she is unthinkingly cruel. I honestly don't think Boris would have done half the wicked things she did at the home office, if only because he's too damn lazy.

One of my concerns about Mr Johnson is that we will have his vanity projects, the garden bridge, 'Boris Island', his other bridges - across the Channel and across the Irish Sea, doubtless one or two others he's dreamt up. Probably all just about started, load of money wasted.

I agree with the 'lazy' absolutely and I'm not sure it is time for a lazy PM. If we'd voted remain, perhaps, but not leave.

 

[hooverboy]

You are right ('Sorry' wasn't meant sarcastically). Alexander Boris Johnson can be unpleasant and uncaring when he wants to be. The way he has treated two wives, who he professed to love was abominable in my opinion. His statements on child sexual abuse show a complete lack of empathy ( https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-child-abuse-investigation-comments-police-knife-crime-a8820631.html ) and his lack of response to Laura Smith MP show the sort of arrogance that was on show when taking questions when debate in the GLC was televised. He seems to be totally self-centred.

I can't remember whether she is in Change now or still the LibDems so a long way from power. That's not luck, that's a miracle!​

I very much doubt that boris will get the job.He's a PR disaster.

there are certain iconic moments that politicians NEVER get to live down.

millibands bacon sarnie/banana is one
boris on the zipwire is another!

 

[Bald Rick]

I very much doubt that boris will get the job.He's a PR disaster.

there are certain iconic moments that politicians NEVER get to live down.

millibands bacon sarnie/banana is one
boris on the zipwire is another!

See my post on the other thread. Boris has this extraordinary talent (for a politician) of being able to get away with things. If he is one of the two put to the Conservative members, he’ll get the job.

 

[Typhoon]

See my post on the other thread. Boris has this extraordinary talent (for a politician) of being able to get away with things. If he is one of the two put to the Conservative members, he’ll get the job.

Quite agree. Its 'Loveable old Boris', party members adore him, despite 'jokes' at the expense of ethnic groups (like a whole continent at once) - who else managed to be offensive to both players at the last US Presidential election and got away with it? People pay tens of thousands of pounds to hear him speak and he says nothing of note, a few digs at some fairly inoffensive group, the odd classical reference, a 'clever' joke or two, some statements of the bleeding obvious, a ruffle of the hair, some 'ums' and 'arhs' and he's off. No idea how he's going to remedy and of the problems facing the country, he did little as Mayor, why change? All party members want is someone who will keep them in power - he'll come across well on telly, he'll go round the country shaking hands saying Labour will sell out to Russia/ China/ the Martians, and get elected. When it comes to Teflon, Grayling's got nothing on him.

 

[krus_aragon]

BTW the resign words of May and Cameron were almost the same. Proud to same the country. In my eyes proud to save the Tory party.

I'd suggest "proud to try to save the Tory party": I don't think either of them has succeeded.

When it comes to Teflon, Grayling's got nothing on him.

Er, isn't that the definition of Teflon? :P

 

[bramling]

See my post on the other thread. Boris has this extraordinary talent (for a politician) of being able to get away with things. If he is one of the two put to the Conservative members, he’ll get the job.

That's a big if though, as notwithstanding the other points he's a *very* divisive figure among the MPs.

 

[AlterEgo]

That's a big if though, as notwithstanding the other points he's a *very* divisive figure among the MPs.

They won’t be voting for him though.

 

[Bald Rick]

They won’t be voting for him though.

They will in the early stages of the contest, to whittle it down to 2 contenders.

 

[furnessvale]

They won’t be voting for him though.

However MPs do the elimination down to two final candidates. This will probably end up one leave and one remain candidate to be put to the membership.

The implication is that Boris will not be the final leave candidate.

 

[Groningen]

Can someone give a timeline of events? What i understand that they have bring back the contenders to 2 and than 125.000 Tories members for the new PM in office.

 

[fowler9]

Johnson managed to offend my entire city and then blag his way out of it.

 

[Typhoon]

Er, isn't that the definition of Teflon? :P

I walked into that one, didn't I?

 

[bramling]

They will in the early stages of the contest, to whittle it down to 2 contenders.

Exactly, not inconceivable but I certainly wouldn’t bet a hefty sum on Boris being one of the ones which makes it to the membership. Having said that, if the EP election results are sufficiently dire then it may influence things a little.

 

[hooverboy]

Quite agree. Its 'Loveable old Boris', party members adore him,

don't think so...we have entered the era of strongman politics.
..the sort of people that make threats and CAN actually hold their own if it came down to a boxing ring bout to decide the next leader.

putin can(kgb and judo)
trump can(mafia)
khomeini/erdogan( religeously suicidal/genocidal maniacs..might not win but they would die trying..and don't play by queensbury rules.)

bojo- couldn't win a playground handbag session at eton,let alone luton.

you might not like the way putin and trump operate but they are basically two peas in a pod as far as the prison defenition of "respect" is...meaning I'm harder than you,and the weaklings get picked off and/or bullied..and shuffled way down the pecking order for soap picking-up duties.

hence why I don't see michael gove or rory whatsisface standing much of a chance.Going by playground rules both of them would be getting a hiding/lunch money extorted on a fairly regular basis.