Thoughts on the Trump presidency

[brad465]

OMG, the VP just killed the Pope!

This is 90% of social media right now, with comparisons to Truss meeting the Queen.

 

[Gloster]

OMG, the VP just killed the Pope!

I told you he was Oddjob!

 

[najaB]

This is 90% of social media right now, with comparisons to Truss meeting the Queen.

That's exactly where my mind went.

 

[dgl]

I assume The Pope died from blunt head trauma as after JD visited he couldn't stop banging his head against a wall.

 

[iwasyoungonce]

I told you he was Oddjob!

I take my hat off to you sir

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

In the so called tariff war, China has the stronger hand. It also has more chips, both literally, with tech hardware, and metaphorically, with a pile of $750bn of US Treasury Bonds.

Internationally, the most significant development is US Treasury Bonds losing their status as a safe haven in financial crises. This is what made Trump blink, not what happened in the stock markets. There is a useful guide on the BBC News website here:

US bond markets: Why everyone is watching them closely

What is happening with US bonds, why Donald Trump cares and how ordinary Americans could be affected.

www.bbc.co.uk

There are other upsides in the fact price of commodities particularly oil and gas have dropped back significantly and they will rapidly feed through to lower prices at the pumps and on peoples bills in most of the globe keeping a lid on inflation and given central banks scope to cut rates.

US treasury still attracting 3-4 times bid on sales of bonds last week doesn't suggest a buyers strike and thus I doubt the Chinese are really going to pull the rug out from underneath the US yet. They are acutely aware that however sour their relationship might be with them currently the health of the US economy has a huge pull on the rest of the globe so they can't afford to let the rest of the world fall into recession.

 

[Magdalia]

I doubt the Chinese are really going to pull the rug out from underneath the US yet.

China may not need to. What matters is the uncertainty. US markets are trading today and here is what is happening.

US stocks and dollar slide after Trump attacks Fed chair Powell

The president amps up attack against US central bank boss calling him "a major loser" for not lowering interest rates.

www.bbc.co.uk

US stocks and the dollar plunged again as President Donald Trump intensified his attacks on US central bank boss calling him "a major loser" for not lowering interest rates.

Though the dollar and US government bonds are typically considered safe assets in times of market turmoil, they have not escaped the recent turbulence.

The dollar index - which measures the strength of the dollar against a set of currencies including the Euro - on Monday fell to its lowest level since 2022.

Interest rates on US government debt also rose, as investors demanded higher returns for holding Treasuries.

 

[brad465]

China may not need to. What matters is the uncertainty. US markets are trading today and here is what is happening.

US stocks and dollar slide after Trump attacks Fed chair Powell

The president amps up attack against US central bank boss calling him "a major loser" for not lowering interest rates.

www.bbc.co.uk

Powell's term expires next year. If Trump hasn't been neutered by then, he'll almost certainly pick a loyalist, irrespective of their economic credentials. The market implosion that will cause will make 1929 look like a bad day at the office.

 

[GusB]

Normally when you hear the words "I have full confidence in that actions of <insert relevant name>", it's a sure sign that they'll either be sacked or encouraged to resign. Not so with Hegseth:

Trump says Hegseth is ‘doing a great job’ despite reports of second Signal chat

US president dismisses criticism of defense secretary sharing information on strikes in Yemen to his family

www.theguardian.com

Trump says Hegseth is ‘doing a great job’ despite reports of second Signal chat​

Donald Trump offered public support for defense secretary Pete Hegseth a day after it emerged that Hegseth had shared information about US strikes in Yemen last month in a second Signal group chat that included family, his personal lawyer and several top Pentagon aides.
“He’s doing a great job. Ask the Houthis how he’s doing,” Trump said dismissively, referring to the rebel group in Yemen targeted by those missile strikes, on the sidelines of the White House Easter egg roll event on Monday.

Hegseth was revealed to have shared, in a series of messages, plans about US strikes against the Houthis on 15 March before they happened in the Signal group chat that included his wife, his brother and a number of his top military aides.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

China may not need to. What matters is the uncertainty. US markets are trading today and here is what is happening.

US stocks and dollar slide after Trump attacks Fed chair Powell

The president amps up attack against US central bank boss calling him "a major loser" for not lowering interest rates.

www.bbc.co.uk

Hasn't contaminated the UK market this morning although we and other mkts now seem to be beneficiary when US sell offs since liberation day.

Also US Treasury has to get away 3 bond auctions this week totalling 183 Billion dollars (as a comparator UK generally does the equivalent of 7B/week). Although its a vast amount much of it is usually just money from redemptions recycled back into the bonds by financial institutions some of which are Chinese. So how these auctions go this week will be an indicator if trouble is brewing either in low participation levels or rates get pushed up. Personally I'd say currently its the US's own hedge funds that are causing most of the volatility.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

Two interesting headlines side by side on the BBC News website this morning... screenshot below... I can't be bothered to read the reports in full; they both seem par for the course in the current situation:

"Harvard sues Trump administration over funding freeze"

and

"US sets tariffs of up to 3,521% on South East Asia solar panels"

 

[Giugiaro]

Sorry, since I use mathematical notation with the comma and point swapped, is that three and a half thousand percent~!?!?!?

 

[Cloud Strife]

China may not need to. What matters is the uncertainty. US markets are trading today and here is what is happening.

I keep saying it: China is playing a very long game. They won't unravel an economic policy lasting decades just to react to Trump, they will simply keep doing what they're doing while Trump distracts America. Trump is playing stupid games at home, China is building military bases everywhere and using a very clever mechanism in places like Bosnia where they're building motorways in exchange for control over infrastructure.

I worked once with the Chinese on one potential project, and they were very honest about it: they said straight away that yes, they would love to finance our project, and by the way, wouldn't we be interested in partnering with them on another project that was of interest to them? We didn't go anywhere in the end, but they were very aware that "financing and building badly needed piece of infrastructure #1" led directly to "taking over important piece of infrastructure #2".

I'd also say though: it's not in China's interest to cause America to implode. It's more in their interest to simply keep doing what they're doing, especially as they get better and better at industrial espionage.

 

[najaB]

Sorry, since I use mathematical notation with the comma and point swapped, is that three and a half thousand percent~!?!?!?

Appear so, yes. Clearly wants to support the US solar panel manufacturing industry. What's that? There isn't one?

 

[Annetts key]

Sorry, since I use mathematical notation with the comma and point swapped, is that three and a half thousand percent~!?!?!?

U.K. 3,521 = 3521

 

[Magdalia]

Hasn't contaminated the UK market this morning although we and other mkts now seem to be beneficiary when US sell offs since liberation day.

The Far Eastern and European markets have not followed the US markets, which were reacting to new information that increased uncertainty about the US Federal Reserve's capacity to act independently to set interest rates and control inflation. It is a US domestic economic policy issue, not an international trade issue.

Sorry, since I use mathematical notation with the comma and point swapped, is that three and a half thousand percent~!?!?!?

The BBC article on tariffs on solar panels is here:

US sets tariffs of up to 3,521% on South East Asia solar panels

Several Chinese solar companies with factories across the region could face steep new tariffs.

www.bbc.co.uk

The US Commerce Department has announced plans to impose tariffs of up to 3,521% on imports of solar panels from four South East Asian countries.
It comes after an investigation that began a year ago when several major solar equipment producers asked the administration of then-President Joe Biden to protect their US operations.
The proposed levies - targeting companies in Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam - are in response to allegations of subsidies from China and the dumping of unfairly cheap products in the US market.
A separate US government agency, the International Trade Commission, is due to reach a final decision on the new tariffs in June.
The countervailing and anti-dumping duties, as these tariffs are known, vary between companies and the countries their products are made in.
Some solar equipment exporters in Cambodia face the highest duties of 3,521% because of what was seen as a lack of cooperation with the Commerce Department investigation.
Products made in Malaysia by Chinese manufacturer Jinko Solar faced some of the lowest duties of just over 41%.
Another China-based firm, Trina Solar, faces tariffs of 375% for the products it makes in Thailand.

China is playing a very long game ...... using a very clever mechanism in places like Bosnia where they're building motorways in exchange for control over infrastructure.

China has been doing this for many years in Asia, Africa and South America, in particular to gain access to and control over raw materials.

 

[Gloster]

I don’t know how much of a solar panel industry there is in the US, but my (purely) gut-feeling is that it is far smaller relative to many other countries. And who buys solar panels? If they think it is only tree-hugging Democrats, will the MAGA faithful merely cheer the tariff?

 

[ainsworth74]

I don’t know how much of a solar panel industry there is in the US, but my (purely) gut-feeling is that it is far smaller relative to many other countries.

Solar panel manufacturing is an industry dominated by China with something like 80% of solar panels being made there and then shipped to the installation country. The US does have some domestic production capability but seeing as basically everyone's capacity outside of China is small I'm not sure that it's any smaller than anyone else's! So if these tariffs persist we can no doubt expect to see solar panel installations plummet in the US as they're going to be priced out of the market and it will take some years for domestic production to catch up.

 

[brad465]

I don’t know how much of a solar panel industry there is in the US, but my (purely) gut-feeling is that it is far smaller relative to many other countries. And who buys solar panels? If they think it is only tree-hugging Democrats, will the MAGA faithful merely cheer the tariff?

I don't know about domestic production, but Texas and California, the two largest states by population, have seen rapid growth in installed capacity in recent years. While existing coverage is already respectable, if planned increases are mainly from imports, tariffs will hit hard.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

China may not need to. What matters is the uncertainty. US markets are trading today and here is what is happening.

US stocks and dollar slide after Trump attacks Fed chair Powell

The president amps up attack against US central bank boss calling him "a major loser" for not lowering interest rates.

www.bbc.co.uk

Yesterdays rout has been fully reversed today Dow up over 1000 points on Treasury Secretary Bessent indicating an accommodation will be reached with China.

 

[najaB]

Seems that Trump has blinked first and is giving up on the trade war:

Donald Trump said during a White House news conference that high tariffs on goods from China will “come down substantially, but it won’t be zero”.

Trump’s remarks were in response to earlier comments on Tuesday by treasury secretary Scott Bessent, who said that the high tariffs were unsustainable and that he expects a “de-escalation” in the trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

Trump says China tariffs will drop ‘substantially – but it won’t be zero’

US president says tariffs on imported goods will come down from 145% rate but insists ‘we’re doing fine with China’

www.theguardian.com

 

[jon0844]

He does realise that nobody trusts him anymore so whatever he does, people, businesses and countries will want out of any investments in the USA from now until a new sensible Government gets back in?

 

[brad465]

So he'll be gone tomorrow:

Trump hints at softening China tariffs and says no plan to sack Fed boss Jerome Powell

His comments come amid a trade war with Beijing, and after his attacks on the US central bank's boss.

www.bbc.co.uk

US President Donald Trump has appeared to soften his recent comments on China and the head of the US Federal Reserve after recent clashes as he pursues his economic agenda.
He said he has "no intention of firing" Jerome Powell after repeatedly criticising the head of the central bank, but he added that he would like Powell to be "a little more active" on cutting interest rates.
Speaking in the Oval Office on Tuesday, Trump also said he was optimistic about improving trade relations with China.
He said the level of tariffs - or import taxes - that he had imposed Chinese imports would "come down substantially, but it won't be zero".
The president's tariffs are an effort to encourage factories and jobs to return to the US. This is a pillar of his economic agenda - as is a cut in interest rates, aimed at reducing the cost of borrowing for Americans.
Trump has ratcheted the rate on Chinese goods up to 145% - sparking reciprocal measures from Beijing and warnings from economists about the global impact of a trade war.
In his comments to reporters on Tuesday, Trump said he would be "very nice" in negotiations with Beijing - in the hope of securing a trade deal.
Earlier, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly said he expected a de-escalation of the trade war, which he said was unsustainable. Responding to comments from China, he said the current situation was "not a joke".
The trade war has led to turbulence in financial markets around the world - to which Trump's comments on Powell have also contributed.
The Fed has not cut rates so far this year, after lowering them by a percentage point late last year, a stance Trump has heavily criticised.
Last week, the president intensified his attacks on the Fed chief, calling him "a major loser". The comments sparked a selloff of stocks, bonds and the US dollar - though markets have since been recovering from those losses.
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said on Friday that Trump was looking into whether it would be possible to sack Powell - who he first nominated to lead the central bank in 2017. Powell was then renewed in 2021 by Joe Biden.
It is unclear whether Trump has the authority to fire the Fed chair. No other US president has tried to do so.

 

[dosxuk]

So he'll be gone tomorrow:

He has no ability to fire him, so it's more trying to spin it as he could but isn't.

 

[OhNoAPacer]

He has no ability to fire him, so it's more trying to spin it as he could but isn't.

He has the ability just not the constitutional authority, but since when did that stop him.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

So he'll be gone tomorrow:

Trump hints at softening China tariffs and says no plan to sack Fed boss Jerome Powell

His comments come amid a trade war with Beijing, and after his attacks on the US central bank's boss.

www.bbc.co.uk

The sensible people are asserting themselves now so Trump needs to retreat let things recover then come back again. Alternatively he may just opt for state visits and golf courses if its all getting too difficult.

 

[Giugiaro]

Seems that Trump has blinked first and is giving up on the trade war:

Trump forgot to buy, and then use, eye drops.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

Trump forgot to buy, and then use, eye drops.

He couldn't afford them because he slapped a bigly high tariff on them...

 

[jon0844]

The sensible people are asserting themselves now so Trump needs to retreat let things recover then come back again. Alternatively he may just opt for state visits and golf courses if its all getting too difficult.

It doesn't matter if he sits back and does nothing but reverse every decision he's made since day one.. the damage is done. Nobody trusts him or ever will trust him or his Government again.

Elon is hoping he can bow out gracefully and go back to Tesla pretending nothing ever happened. News of Elon stepping back has helped Tesla stock a little, and I guess he'll be promising wonderful new things in the coming months to pump the stock again - but I doubt sales are coming back. Elon needed to leave Tesla, not return. Like Trump, the damage is done.

I suppose Elon could go for a claim of insanity, saying he was tricked by Trump, that his drug addiction caused him to say and do horrible things, and plead for forgiveness, then go back to supporting the Democrats - but I can't see that happening. For one, nobody would believe him. Secondly, Trump would likely seek to deport Elon...

The UK needs to keep dangling the state visit under Trump's nose. His ego loves the fact he's so amazing that the King wants to meet him, and that counts for perhaps more than a lot of other things. Just keep pushing it back and back. Also, we need to make sure the VP doesn't come along as otherwise we'll have another state funeral to schedule in.

 

[Bevan Price]

Trump seems happy to let Russia keep the stolen bits of Ukraine.
I wonder if he would have the same attitude if Russia decided it wanted to repossess Alaska ?