TPE Transpennine claiming car users transferring as car costs rising

[DanNCL]

but that isn't a direct train. Can you drive to Manchester for that? That is a comparable road v tpe journey

Slightly more for Manchester, that trip cost me about £15 each way in the car. For that journey a quick look on BR fares shows that the cheapest advance fare without a railcard (so for the average passenger) is £19.90 one way.

I drive a 1 litre 24 plate, I get around 60mpg out of it on the motorway, so it’s very economical to run. Other costs such as tax I have to pay anyway as I need the car to get to work out of hours so aren’t relevant here. The train simply doesn’t compete on cost apart from a small number of local journeys where it removes City Centre parking charges.

It shouldn’t matter whether it’s a direct train or not. It’s a journey that I need to make on a semi-regular basis and I’m going to do it in the most cost effective way possible.

These comparisons are still important though as it gives real world examples of journeys. There are many journeys that I make that are faster by train than by car, but if origin or destination is my home then it’s rare this still holds true. Suggesting you should only compare the timings when there’s a direct train seems to be rather biasing the results. Real world journeys are real world journeys.

On the flip side though there’s no point suggesting it takes ages to get by train between Thorne north and Thorne south and blaming the railway for it.

Exactly this. Durham to Lancaster is a reasonable real world journey that one would consider the train for. And there’s many examples of journeys a lot of people make with limited/no direct rail service, Newcastle-Glasgow for example.

And on the journey time aspect that’s very true too. London is considerably quicker by train for example, and one journey where I wouldn’t even consider driving (if I don’t get the train I fly from Newcastle).

 

[Topological]

These days I save £24 on my ticket by driving for an hour. The car park I then use is free.

The petrol cost is £14 (I know because I needed to refill after the last trip for a much longer journey and had only done this specific trip since the previous refill).

The journey brings me 1% closer to the next service, which means that is costing another £4.

Insurance is a strange one, because I need that to have a car. However, if we work on the additional mileage needed to cover a regular commute then the added cost to the insurance is around £2. My insurance company quotes based on number of miles, so there is a need to increase the number of miles to accommodate.

Road Tax and MOT we can be generous and assign £2 to the trip even though I would need these regardless.

So I am still under the train fare after accounting for everything. As an extra bonus, I do not need to worry about changing in Cardiff and I can reach any of the stations quicker than I would if I stayed on the train (even the direct train).

The elephant in the room here is how I would get to the station if using the train for the longer journey...

What is the marginal saving I would need from the train to switch back? I do not know, but likely a lot.

So whether TPE are right is unclear. However, good luck to them if they can get more seats on the route. They need them.

 

[Krokodil]

It would mean an annual fare subsidy budget be given to the railways to make up the difference,

The ex-government cut fuel duty by 37% in real terms, at a total cost of more than £80bn. So really it's a question of priorities.

 

[RailWonderer]

The ex-government cut fuel duty by 37% in real terms, at a total cost of more than £80bn. So really it's a question of priorities.

It was a 5p cut that cost an estimated £2bn.

Fuel duty cut could be scrapped, says RAC

The motoring group claims retailers not drivers have benefitted from lower tax on petrol and diesel.

www.bbc.co.uk

Compared to car insurance quotes regularly increasing from £450 to £700 and £1800 to £1750 regularly, I'd say the savings in fuel are negligable.

 

[Krokodil]

It was a 5p cut that cost an estimated £2bn.

Fuel duty cut could be scrapped, says RAC

The motoring group claims retailers not drivers have benefitted from lower tax on petrol and diesel.

www.bbc.co.uk

George Osborne cut fuel duty by 1p in the 2011 budget and it stayed at that level until the further 5p cut in 2022. There has been an awful lot of inflation in the meantime so in "real terms" the fuel duty has dropped by around 37% over the period the Conservatives were in power. That's where the OBR's £80bn figure came from. If fuel duty had kept up with inflation it would now be at 85.95p for unleaded petrol.

Over the same period, we had many years of rail fares increasing above the rate of inflation until the pandemic where the increase was below it (but still a rise in nominal value). Regulated fares have grown by 6% above inflation while Conservative Chancellors have presided at HM Treasury.

 

[noddingdonkey]

It does seem the the cost of car ownership is a better argument for more ambitious bus services designed to be a viable alternative to the car (a sufficiently frequent timetable that passengers don't need to plan their lives around, rather than the current death by a thousand cuts) than for an inter-regional train that most people need some other mode of transport to access

 

[Krokodil]

It does seem the the cost of car ownership is a better argument for more ambitious bus services designed to be a viable alternative to the car (a sufficiently frequent timetable that passengers don't need to plan their lives around, rather than the current death by a thousand cuts) than for an inter-regional train that most people need some other mode of transport to access

The issue with bus services is that they tend to be extremely slow. Some local examples:

Distance: 17 miles; Car: 24-35min, Train: 16-23min Bus: 54min

Distance 4 miles; Car 10-16min, Train: 10min, Bus: 22min

As a result, bus passengers are mostly those who have no choice - those who can't drive and there is either no train alternative or they can't afford it. Trains on the other hand can attract people out of their cars. All it needs is a reliable, frequent service and competitive fares.

 

[noddingdonkey]

And some means of getting to the train station for the vast majority who are not in walking distance.

 

[johntea]

The services via Wakefield Kirkgate certainly seem popular whenever I use them, so this is one area where they are providing a better service.

Popular to the extent that from December they look to be going hourly right through from early morning to late evening...even at weekends (Hurrah!)

As a local resident I may be slightly biased but I'm a huge fan of the service as it gets me to Manchester in just over an hour on a direct comfortable train - (even arriving at Piccadilly generally Platform 1-3 no less rather than the marathon of 13-14!) and you don't have a massive crush of Leeds passengers to contend with

 

[Krokodil]

And some means of getting to the train station for the vast majority who are not in walking distance.

It's more important to encourage those who are already within active travel (walking/cycling) distance from stations to use them. They're more likely to live in congested urban areas which should be the priority for modal shift. Until things improve in towns and cities, rural villages will have to put up with infrequent services which are only really useful to pensioners.

In an ideal world with money to burn then yes, you could have every train met by a row of buses to shuttle passengers to/from smaller settlements.

It would help if rural buses traversing longer distances (like TrawsCymru) could carry bikes like some in Switzerland can. Would help expand the radius served for little extra cost.

 

[yorksrob]

Popular to the extent that from December they look to be going hourly right through from early morning to late evening...even at weekends (Hurrah!)

As a local resident I may be slightly biased but I'm a huge fan of the service as it gets me to Manchester in just over an hour on a direct comfortable train - (even arriving at Piccadilly generally Platform 1-3 no less rather than the marathon of 13-14!) and you don't have a massive crush of Leeds passengers to contend with

And one can get back from Manchester to Wakefield on a Saturday evening whilst avoiding the madness at Leeds.

That's priceless !

 

[al78]

It would take a huge rise in car costs to make a family visit by train cheaper for me.

Horsham to Salford, 480 mile round trip, cost of fuel around £70.
Train: Can very rarely get advance tickets, the best I have managed is split ticketing which costs around £80-90, otherwise a walk-up ticket costs nearly £120.

If I were to travel with a companion, the fuel cost would be virtually the same, the train cost would double.

I don't include the fixed costs of car ownership as IMO that is a desperate attempt to make public transport compare favorably on cost which it can never do, except in very specific cases involving single people or someone traveling into London. The fixed costs should only be taken into account if the decision is to keep the car and drive long journeys or go car free and use trains. In the overwhelming majority of cases the choice is to drive or go by train with the car being kept, so the fixed costs of car ownership are a common factor between the two choices and effectively cancel out.

 

[ivanhoe]

Most of traffic issues are localised. When you start seeing buses overtake cars in peak time, and arrive 10 mins earlier than the car, that is when you’ll see a greater modal shift. TPE are really shifting longer distance passengers and I would expect an increase , which in all probability will see a service at pre Covid levels.

 

[Jozhua]

So what’s the capacity plan to accommodate all this extra expected demand?

I'll be excited to see it! Awaiting the tender to double the fleet of 802s with baited breath.

It would take a huge rise in car costs to make a family visit by train cheaper for me.

Horsham to Salford, 480 mile round trip, cost of fuel around £70.
Train: Can very rarely get advance tickets, the best I have managed is split ticketing which costs around £80-90, otherwise a walk-up ticket costs nearly £120.

If I were to travel with a companion, the fuel cost would be virtually the same, the train cost would double.

I don't include the fixed costs of car ownership as IMO that is a desperate attempt to make public transport compare favorably on cost which it can never do, except in very specific cases involving single people or someone traveling into London. The fixed costs should only be taken into account if the decision is to keep the car and drive long journeys or go car free and use trains. In the overwhelming majority of cases the choice is to drive or go by train with the car being kept, so the fixed costs of car ownership are a common factor between the two choices and effectively cancel out.

Fixed costs are so important to take into account. Because many of us have to drive for our jobs, the marginal wear & tear for doing the odd long distance journey is minimal. If a lot of it is motorway/major roads, you're not putting as much strain on the car per mile either. Tyres need replacing after a few years anyway, as they start to crack, so might as well make use of all your tread depth.

TPE aren't wrong to highlight driving costs being punishing for those on lower incomes, which is true, but the step change required to make public transport an accessible alternative is frankly enormous.

 

[squizzler]

Motoring is in big trouble. This article from the Guardian includes rather startling data on the collapse in car sales within Europe as a whole:

Yet the reality is that in Europe 2.5m fewer cars are being produced now than five years ago.

And before the "railways are losing their sustainability advantage in the face of the electric car transition" crowd respond, they might like to ponder that this "revolution" is showing itself to be a busted flush. Well done to the vested fossil fuel interests for continually casting aspersions on the electric car - this appears to have backfired and caused scepticism about cars more generally:

The market for electric cars slumped by 69% in August compared with a year earlier, believed to be as a result of waning consumer confidence, and every fifth electric vehicle sold in Europe is produced in China.

The full article text can be read here.

An ‘earthquake’ at Volkswagen – and a crisis for Germany?​

The company is seen as crucial not just to local but national wellbeing – and never before have its workers been threatened in their own homeland like this

 

[yorksrob]

Cars are another thing that can go wrong expensively. Like having another central heating boiler.

 

[The exile]

Motoring is in big trouble. This article from the Guardian includes rather startling data on the collapse in car sales within Europe as a whole:

And before the "railways are losing their sustainability advantage in the face of the electric car transition" crowd respond, they might like to ponder that this "revolution" is showing itself to be a busted flush. Well done to the vested fossil fuel interests for continually casting aspersions on the electric car - this appears to have backfired and caused scepticism about cars more generally:

The full article text can be read here.

That doesn’t necessarily equate to 2.5 million fewer being sold in Europe though (sorry, can’t open full article which may state that it does!)

 

[Topological]

Motoring is in big trouble. This article from the Guardian includes rather startling data on the collapse in car sales within Europe as a whole:

And before the "railways are losing their sustainability advantage in the face of the electric car transition" crowd respond, they might like to ponder that this "revolution" is showing itself to be a busted flush. Well done to the vested fossil fuel interests for continually casting aspersions on the electric car - this appears to have backfired and caused scepticism about cars more generally:

The full article text can be read here.

Slightly off-topic, but what is wrong with every vehicle being produced in China (or any other country)?

We do have an obsession with where things are made when surely the obsession should be with the quality of the product.

The news from Germany, is just Germany catching up with the UK in terms of the car industry moving out?

None of this translates to sales.

Indeed, if we stopped slapping tariffs on everything we might find that electric car usage went up again.

 

[The exile]

Slightly off-topic, but what is wrong with every vehicle being produced in China (or any other country)?

We do have an obsession with where things are made when surely the obsession should be with the quality of the product.

The news from Germany, is just Germany catching up with the UK in terms of the car industry moving out?

None of this translates to sales.

Indeed, if we stopped slapping tariffs on everything we might find that electric car usage went up again.

Nothing, if the companies are subject exactly the same standards (environmental, H&S, wages) as those based here and the true environmental costs of shipping things round the world (sometimes more than once) is accounted for - obviously this applies to the import of raw materials as well.

 

[David Bullock]

The service is similar to what it was in 2014, just with the 802 instead of a single 185. It's certainly not dramatically improved.

IIRC 2014 had the fast Newcastle (1x185) and Scarborough via CLC (1x185) from Liverpool.

From Dec 2024 there will be the fast Newcastle (1x802), fast hull (1x185), Cleethorpes via CLC (which seems to be consistently 2x185s these days)

So an uplift from 338 seats per hour in 2014 to 849. I’d argue a 2.5x increase is significant

 

[Starmill]

IIRC 2014 had the fast Newcastle (1x185) and Scarborough via CLC (1x185) from Liverpool.

From Dec 2024 there will be the fast Newcastle (1x802), fast hull (1x185), Cleethorpes via CLC (which seems to be consistently 2x185s these days)

So an uplift from 338 seats per hour in 2014 to 849. I’d argue a 2.5x increase is significant

Unfortunately this isn't correct. The service from Hull isn't new, it just replaced the service to Manchester Airport which was worked with a 319. Also there aren't sufficient 185s for all of the Cleethorpes - Liverpool services to be double, and there never have been.

 

[al78]

Cars are another thing that can go wrong expensively. Like having another central heating boiler.

Although modern cars are generally very reliable so high repair costs are rare, although earlier this year I had to fork out over £800 after the window seals failed on the driver's side and my car began taking in water like the Titanic every time it rained.

Motoring is in big trouble. This article from the Guardian includes rather startling data on the collapse in car sales within Europe as a whole:

And before the "railways are losing their sustainability advantage in the face of the electric car transition" crowd respond, they might like to ponder that this "revolution" is showing itself to be a busted flush. Well done to the vested fossil fuel interests for continually casting aspersions on the electric car - this appears to have backfired and caused scepticism about cars more generally:

The full article text can be read here.

Couldn't the so-called slump be an artifact of an initial surge in demand to purchase new technology, followed by a decrease in demand after these enthusiasts have purchased a car? This sort of thing happens frequently with new products.

Slightly off-topic, but what is wrong with every vehicle being produced in China (or any other country)?

It would be ideal if we could manufacture the vehicles on home soil since the companies and employees would then be contributing to the tax revenue and boosting the economy here, which helps towards improving quality of life.

 

[Jozhua]

Cars are another thing that can go wrong expensively. Like having another central heating boiler.

Although modern cars are generally very reliable so high repair costs are rare, although earlier this year I had to fork out over £800 after the window seals failed on the driver's side and my car began taking in water like the Titanic every time it rained.

Couldn't the so-called slump be an artifact of an initial surge in demand to purchase new technology, followed by a decrease in demand after these enthusiasts have purchased a car? This sort of thing happens frequently with new products.

Cars seem to be getting more expensive to repair, as manufacturers start sealing once fixable components into larger 'modules', which have to be replaced as one. Take for example headlights. A 2000s car like mine has a very simple light assembly, which you can unplug and remove to easily swap a bulb. Now they have sealed LED units, which specialise in dazzling other drivers, some even selling "adaptive" high beam, which allows you to feel less guilty about blinding everyone else on the road. These can easily rack up to a few hundred, or even over a thousand pounds.

PCPs have had a big distorting effect on the car market. People are 'buying' more expensive cars, typically larger, more premium models. These tend to have higher repair costs than your Dacia Sanderos or Toyota Yaris'. Higher value cars also equals more expensive insurance claims, causing all our premiums to rise, irrespective of your car's value.

In terms of eliminating or reducing the numbers of cars per household, I dare say that buses, trams, and local rail are going to be much more significant than a long distance operator, such as TPE. That said, it doesn't hurt to have those options available when you need to make those journeys.

 

[Topological]

It would be ideal if we could manufacture the vehicles on home soil since the companies and employees would then be contributing to the tax revenue and boosting the economy here, which helps towards improving quality of life.

The problem with that is:

1. The cars are more expensive and we end up with households having less disposable income to spend on other products / general quality of life improvements. Even if somehow incomes also rise in the UK to match the higher car price, all we have then done is create inflation
2. The workers in the other country no longer have jobs producing cars for the UK
3. The sector that would have filled the void left by the UK not producing cars, no longer has a void to fill
4. All the associated benefits of cheaper greener cars are lost

Now, there is always an argument for protectionism and looking after our own. But, most of the world, and the UK, moved on from that a long time ago.

IF the aim is modal shift, then the policy has to be to invest in the infrastructure of the mode we are to shift to. IF that means electric buses from China (a la Newport, for example) then that is the way to go. Irrespective of the precise infrastructure, failure to provide any infrastructure will just breed a nation of drivers of older, less efficient and less green cars.

TPE provide part of the rail solution, but as has been said many times on this thread, that is just between two cities, what happens outside the stations still needs work.

 

[Irascible]

I believe purchases are switching from electric to various forms of hybrid car here, rather than just not happening. No data immediately to hand on that, if it resurfaces I'll link.

 

[RailWonderer]

IF the aim is modal shift, then the policy has to be to invest in the infrastructure of the mode we are to shift to. IF that means electric buses from China (a la Newport, for example) then that is the way to go. Irrespective of the precise infrastructure, failure to provide any infrastructure will just breed a nation of drivers of older, less efficient and less green cars.

TPE provide part of the rail solution, but as has been said many times on this thread, that is just between two cities, what happens outside the stations still needs work.

Our government isn't investing in much anytime soon, it's just taxing goods, services and incomes more heavily to pay for health care and pensions. I don't see any big infrastructure projects in this country or a long term vision because a) we are being told we cannot afford them and b) long term investment is anathema to our politicians who only care about short term gains to get votes. Leave long term planning to autocracies like China and Saudi Arabia or sensible democracies like Germany and Switzerland.

 

[bramling]

Our government isn't investing in much anytime soon, it's just taxing goods, services and incomes more heavily to pay for health care and pensions. I don't see any big infrastructure projects in this country or a long term vision because a) we are being told we cannot afford them and b) long term investment is anathema to our politicians who only care about short term gains to get votes. Leave long term planning to autocracies like China and Saudi Arabia or sensible democracies like Germany and Switzerland.

Yeah this seems to more or less summarise things. Governments are continually raising taxes largely to pay for “now” spending, including of course the massive bill run up by Covid, which seems to have distorted elements of the market by the money still being there but not necessarily in the bits of the economy ideally desirable (hence recent high inflation).

I don’t see much long-term planning going on round here at all. In particular housing continues to go up in every single village round here, often on a massive scale, and in most cases with zero provision being made for it. Hence a massive number of local journeys being made in and out of nearby towns as people access services - which are stretched in their provision themselves.

And seemingly the only solution the current government can offer is “it’s not our fault gov”.