HS2 Review ongoing

[Chester1]

I can't see the eastern branch surviving this. Merging phase 1 and 2a now seems inevitable because they have the same completion target. The phase 2a bill in parliament could be used to make any changes to phase 1. The impending general election would be a good opportunity to transfer Crewe-Manchester to NPR and setup a company etc for it and anounce dates for a hybrid bill in parliament etc.

 

[hwl]

I can't see the eastern branch surviving this. Merging phase 1 and 2a now seems inevitable because they have the same completion target. The phase 2a bill in parliament could be used to make any changes to phase 1. The impending general election would be a good opportunity to transfer Crewe-Manchester to NPR and setup a company etc for it and anounce dates for a hybrid bill in parliament etc.

Agreed 2b has become bit of a mess especially the Eastern Branch as regards Sheffield and with NPR having East-West station alignments in Manchester and Leeds is better for HS service through running for NPR.

 

[Rhydgaled]

The text of the statement to parliament is on the DfT web site: https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/hs2-update-3-september-2019

Regarding schedule, the Chairman does not believe the current schedule of 2026 for initial services on Phase One is realistic. In line with lessons from other major transport infrastructure projects, his advice proposes a range of dates for the start of service. He recommends 2028 to 2031 for Phase One - with a staged opening, starting with initial services between London Old Oak Common and Birmingham Curzon Street, followed by services to and from London Euston later. He expects Phase 2b, the full high-speed line to Manchester and Leeds, to open between 2035 and 2040.

Old Oak Common to Curzon Street... Blast, I was hoping the review would defer Curzon Street and make the Birmingham area the subject of a more-detailed review. Assuming that the designers have avoided ancient woodlands, SSSIs, SACs etc. to the fullest extent possible (which I'm not sure they have) I'd be in favour of a new 200mph/325kph railway with Euston - Birmingham International as phase 1 and York-Leeds-Manchester-Liverpool/Crewe (an integrated version of NPR and HS2's Manchester arm) as phase 2, but I'm not sure about the bit around Birmingham. There is significant tunneling already planned for HS2 (London, Manchester and some of the environmentally sensitive areas), a bit more around Birmingham (allowing Curzon Street to be a through station in a cutting like, I think, Stratford International) would make HS2 a heck of a lot more useful than currently proposed.

I can't see the eastern branch surviving this. Merging phase 1 and 2a now seems inevitable because they have the same completion target. The phase 2a bill in parliament could be used to make any changes to phase 1. The impending general election would be a good opportunity to transfer Crewe-Manchester to NPR and setup a company etc for it and anounce dates for a hybrid bill in parliament etc.

I see the eastern arm as more of a NPR/XC project, which could perhaps be done in stages. Leeds-Sheffield (with electrification from Sheffield to Birmingham as an extension to the planned HS2 electrification of Sheffield station area) would be the first part of that (and mostly fall under the NPR banner). Next, upgrade the Worcester avoiding line through Worcester(shire) Parkway to perhaps 150mph and electrify Birmingham-Bristol. Then (maybe) eventually bridge the gap from the Worcester avoiding line to Sheffield with the much-delayed eastern arm of HS2 plus an extra bit south/west of Birmingham.

What funding would HS2 have received from the EU as a TEN-T route?

That's an interesting question. Even if we remained in the European Union, would HS2 be considered a TEN-T route (given that the link to HS1, and therefore the wider European network, was dropped)?

 

[RealTrains07]

The Pendolinos will also have to keep going for another 5 years as well.

Sure they could last a lot longer than that, their not that old yet?

I would have thought they would be still working a while after HS2 started

 

[EE Andy b1]

I would have thought they would be still working a while after HS2 started

They will, and after there refurbish to "as new" they'll do another 20 years.

HS2 compatible rollingstock put back 5 years or so as well then.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Old Oak Common to Curzon Street... Blast, I was hoping the review would defer Curzon Street and make the Birmingham area the subject of a more-detailed review.

This isn't the result of the review, it's just the "state of play" of the original project.
Decisions to stop/go/change the plan are still to come once the Okervee review is completed.

 

[D869]

HS2 Chairman’s Stocktake
https://assets.publishing.service.g..._data/file/828771/hs2-chairmans-stocktake.pdf

Phase, Section, Likely cost (2015 prices), Opening date:

1, London-Birmingham, 36-38, 2028-2031
2a, Birmingham-Crewe, 3.6-4.0, 2028-2031
2b, Crewe-Manchester & Birmingham-Leeds, 32-36, 2035-2040

Phase 2b almost doubles the cost. Eastern branch was always daft and should be scrapped. Giving Leeds a light rail system would do far more good.

 

[HSTEd]

So £36-38bn for London-Birmingham?

Which would have paid for tunnelling the entire alignment!
And probably an underground station in London.....

And all this political wrangling could have been avoided!

 

[700007]

My concern is that this possibly won't be the last delay we see on the project. Is there any scope for the recent West Coast partnership award to be reviewed as I fear that HS2 may not even materialise within the next franchise or if it does, right at the very end. The current award seems dry and lacking of any real substance or investment as the main focus was on the HS2 element - but this is asking for problems further down the line for the main 'classic' element of the franchise if it gets starved of any proper investment.

 

[33Hz]

If they are going for a full on drains up review then I would totally support looking again at the decision to run within a few miles of Heathrow and not have a proper station there, a la Arup proposal from 2009, and reinstate a connection to HS1 while they are at it. Absolutely bonkers to leave out both of them, regardless of what the professional crystal ball gazers claim.

 

[Ianno87]

So £36-38bn for London-Birmingham?

Which would have paid for tunnelling the entire alignment!
And probably an underground station in London.....

And all this political wrangling could have been avoided!

No, it'd just be even more expensive....

 

[HSTEd]

No, it'd just be even more expensive....

Not necessarily.
The stocktake report notes that cost growth was much greater on non tunneled sections of Phase 1.....
And the cost growth associated with land purchase would have been largely suppressed.

 

[muddythefish]

There are times when you despair of this country - and this is one of them.

Whatever the costs and merits of this particular project, we are decades behind the other major industrial countries (except the USA) who have all deployed this technology long ago.

The French, the Germans, the Italians, the Spanish, the Swiss, the Japanese all have this technology and the Chinese over the last 20 years have built more high-speed track than all the conventional rail track we have.

Even if it were to go ahead, then England would get a few hundred miles of high speed rail 60 years (count them folks) after the TGV came into service. Now that's an incredible record for a supposedly advanced economy.

What is wrong with us ?

 

[RealTrains07]

They will, and after there refurbish to "as new" they'll do another 20 years.

HS2 compatible rollingstock put back 5 years or so as well then.

Just to confirm, Is the main reason pendalino cant run on HS2 is because of its maximum speeds?

 

[HSTEd]

Is the main reason pendalino cant run on HS2 cause of its maximum speeds?

Yes, Pendolinos are far too slow and slow accelerating.

 

[RealTrains07]

Yes, Pendolinos are far too slow and slow accelerating.

shame, would’ve saved alot of money if they were suitable

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Yes, Pendolinos are far too slow and slow accelerating.

225km/h is not to be sniffed at for a tilting classic-compatible train, for such journeys as Birmingham-Scotland, most of which will not be run on high-speed infrastructure.
They only need ETCS fitting, of which the TASS system they already have is a subset.
Acceleration I would have thought is on a par with TGVs and ICEs, even if their max speed is lower.
Germany and Spain (possibly Italy too) run such trains on their mixed HSL/classic infrastructure.
But age is significant and the 390s will probably be about 30 years old before they could run on HS2, which tells against them.
Funding issues might force some reuse of 390s for a decade or so if conversion is economical.

 

[Weekender]

It was inevitable that today would be chosen to bury the bad news.
Yesterday Boris Johnson was talking about big infrastructure plans and today his transport minister announces delays to the biggest infrastructure project.

 

[HSTEd]

225km/h is not to be sniffed at for a tilting classic-compatible train, for such journeys as Birmingham-Scotland, most of which will not be run on high-speed infrastructure.

It is not to be sniffed at, but they will lose far too much time on the core section compared to proper high speed sets.

Acceleration I would have thought is on a par with TGVs and ICEs, even if their max speed is lower.

They have much lower power to weight ratio, so once they hit the power limited regime they will be left in the dust.

Germany and Spain (possibly Italy too) run such trains on their mixed HSL/classic infrastructure.

And all those places have far lower traffic densities than HS2 will.
Spain even has single track high speed lines.

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

At least the Transport Secretary is being honest about HS2.

 

[RealTrains07]

Is it delayed by 5 or 7 years?

Ive seen papers and various news outlets saying both

Extra 22 billion is a bit ridiculous at this point on top of the delays

 

[mmh]

It was inevitable that today would be chosen to bury the bad news.
Yesterday Boris Johnson was talking about big infrastructure plans and today his transport minister announces delays to the biggest infrastructure project.

It's not bad news though. HS2 is not a vote winner, and the update from the review will bolster hopes that it will be cancelled among existing voters who aren't in favour of it.

 

[anti-pacer]

If the eastern leg gets scrapped, and Leeds is served via Manchester, what would be the increase in journey time? Leeds to London via Manchester is hardly direct.

 

[BluePenguin]

I am watching BBC News at 18:00 and they briefly looked at the rising costs of HS2 and how it is delayed from 2021 to 2026. 5 years is a loooong time. Better late than never eh?

The arguments to and for aside, a journey time of 49 minutes from London to Birmingham is pretty impressive.

 

[PR1Berske]

If the eastern leg gets scrapped, and Leeds is served via Manchester, what would be the increase in journey time? Leeds to London via Manchester is hardly direct.

That's where the "Northern Powerhouse" kicks in.

 

[Grimsby town]

Scrapping the eastern leg is a stupid idea. Firstly its the part of the route that offers the biggest time gains over current services. Journey times between Leeds / Newcastle to Birmingham will be reduced by over an hour with Sheffield also experiencing savings. Stations that have a connecting service to York, Leeds, Darlington or Newcastle will also experience these journey time reductions.

Secondly, quite a bit of the HS2 eastern arm is needed for NPR. Sheffield to Leeds requires HS2 from near Rotherham. Garforth to Church Fenton is likely to be needed to alleviate capacity constraints and the poor reliability of this line. Leeds will need the HS2 station to relieve the current station.

Finally, what happens with the southern ECML? It continues having to run express trains at the expense or regional, commuter and freight services. There is very little opportunity to increase capacity above what is already committed. Perhaps Newark Flyover would be the last likely project to improve capacity.

On another note, I think these threads should come with a frequently asked questions and facts post on the first page.

For example the amount of times I have heard 'the UK is a small country we don't need highspeed rail' when the distance between London and Edinburgh is only slightly less than Paris to Marseille (but significantly slower by rail currently). Things like journey time need to be set out thoroughly so the same lines about 20 minutes saved to Brum are not repeated.

 

[Muenchener]

That's where the "Northern Powerhouse" kicks in.

Haven't you heard? That's going to be next week's news...

 

[Tetchytyke]

Hugely destructive, waste of money white elephant turns out to be a white elephant which is hugely destructive and a waste of money.

Well, I didn't see that one coming.

Any party which commits to binning HS2 off gets my vote.

 

[Weekender]

That's where the "Northern Powerhouse" kicks in.

As the mayors and councils behind Northern Powerhouse have said many times the two are linked, Northern Powerhouse will not work without HS2.

 

[The Planner]

Hugely destructive, waste of money white elephant turns out to be a white elephant which is hugely destructive and a waste of money.

Well, I didn't see that one coming.

Any party which commits to binning HS2 off gets my vote.

Depends on how you PR spin it I suppose, is it being buried today as its going to get canned or is it being buried because they are still going to build it overuns and cost increases regardless?