UK officially enters recession

[Huntergreed]

Basically no chance. We're looking at when a vaccine arrives, so Q1-Q2 next year.

I don’t think people are going to stand for it for that long, not many are doing it now! The government can make it law, but that’ll achieve nothing and be entirely unenforceable, people aren’t going to stand for these restrictions for another year.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I don’t think people are going to stand for it for that long, not many are doing it now! The government can make it law, but that’ll achieve nothing and be entirely unenforceable, people aren’t going to stand for these restrictions for another year.

Individual compliance is likely to be in the bin by then, because it's rather difficult to enforce it to any great extent (it pretty much is now, masks aside). However, powers against businesses are far greater, so for instance there aren't going to be any theatres open, because if they do open they'll be shut down permanently by loss of their licence.

 

[DB]

I don’t think people are going to stand for it for that long, not many are doing it now! The government can make it law, but that’ll achieve nothing and be entirely unenforceable, people aren’t going to stand for these restrictions for another year.

And it will bankrupt some sectors of the economy as they will be unable top operate profitably, or in some cases at all.

 

[Class 33]

Basically no chance. We're looking at when a vaccine arrives, so Q1-Q2 next year.

But a few weeks ago Boris did say in his press conference that "We may MAY be able to scrap social distancing from November at the earliest.". So that's from the prime minister his self who said that. At the time I did think November is still a little too far away to keep this social distancing dragging on until. But I thought I'll give Boris the benefit of the doubt on this, in that at long last social distancing will be scrapped by sometime in November. However barely a week or so later he then mentioned in an interview that "We may be able to relax restrictions around the middle of next year." which is in total contradiction to what he said that social distancing may well be scrapped from sometime in November. So contradicting yourself there Boris. Which is it?

But there's no way we're going to be able to keep this social distancing dragging on until at least Q1 or Q2 next year. Many many businesses won't be able to survive financially until then, such as those venues still unable to open such as theatres, nightclubs, bowling alleys, kids softplay centres, etc, etc to name just a few. Even a fair number of pubs, cinemas, museums/tourist attractions, cafes and restaurants that are now allowed to operate, won't be able to survive until then.

 

[brad465]

Wasn't sure which thread to put this in but as economic consequences appear to be the subject I've put it here: Actress Denise Welch has tweeted to Johnson with the tweet below in favour of easing restrictions and getting the economy going as we are "devastating our children's futures" and more:

https://twitter.com/RealDeniseWelch/status/1294230269889740801

Please @BorisJohnson answer this. We are devastating our children’s futures. Livelihoods ruined. Hospitals half empty. People in NHS telling me they have no Covid patients & no deaths for 2 months in many. If cases aren’t leading to hospital & deaths then WTF is going on??

Many of the top replies are about conspiracy theories in the world order (I don't believe those theories but clearly something has to give with necessity of restrictions).

 

[Scrotnig]

But a few weeks ago Boris did say in his press conference that "We may MAY be able to scrap social distancing from November at the earliest."

Did he actually say this? The only actual quote I recall was that he said he hoped we would be "as near to normal as possible" by November, which isn't the same as scrapping social distancing completely. I felt that was a reasonable aspiration, whereas scrapping everything probably isn't.

However I'm open to be corrected if he did indeed say it.

 

[Yew]

Did he actually say this? The only actual quote I recall was that he said he hoped we would be "as near to normal as possible" by November, which isn't the same as scrapping social distancing completely. I felt that was a reasonable aspiration, whereas scrapping everything probably isn't.

However I'm open to be corrected if he did indeed say it.

Indeed, it's one of those heavily caveated statements, that ultimately means nothing.

 

[Class 33]

Did he actually say this? The only actual quote I recall was that he said he hoped we would be "as near to normal as possible" by November, which isn't the same as scrapping social distancing completely. I felt that was a reasonable aspiration, whereas scrapping everything probably isn't.

However I'm open to be corrected if he did indeed say it.

Well this is exactly what he said....

I think what we're trying to say about the 1 metre rule and social distancing generally is that clearly looking through to the spring, looking through to the long term impact that social distancing will continue to have on the many sectors of the UK economy. What we're saying is we hope that by November at the earliest, if we continue to make progress in our struggle against the virus, it may MAY be conceivably be possible to move away from the social distancing measures from the 1 metre rule and other things by that time. Now that is entirely conditional as I say on our continuity to keep the virus under control.".

 

[Yew]

Ah, so it's dependent on the "Control the virus" fantasy.

 

[bramling]

Did he actually say this? The only actual quote I recall was that he said he hoped we would be "as near to normal as possible" by November, which isn't the same as scrapping social distancing completely. I felt that was a reasonable aspiration, whereas scrapping everything probably isn't.

However I'm open to be corrected if he did indeed say it.

My interpretation of that remark (I forget the exact wording) was this was De Piffle making another one of his attempts to try to keep people happy by intimating that if everyone does as they’re told everything will be fine for Christmas. There didn’t seem to be much factual basis behind it.

 

[Class 33]

Just 3 people died of Coronavirus today, THREE people! Deaths stats are going to be incredibly low now, most probably in single digits across a 7-day rolling average. So if this social distancing and face mask wearing rules continues for too much longer now, it really is going to absolutely ridiculous and absolute insanity as it's absolutely doing enormous damage to the economy, people's livelihoods and mental health. Even November at the earliest to scrap social distancing and face masking wearing rules is far too late.

Professor Jonathan Van Tam warning daily "normal life" will not return until AT LEAST Easter 2021! You must be absolutely joking man! We can't continue with this madness for another EIGHT MONTHS!!!

Daily life will not return to 'normal' until Easter 2021, medical chief warns

Jonathan Van Tam, deputy chief medical officer, said spring 2021 would present a "new dawn" for the country - but urged people to follow lockdown rules until then

www.chroniclelive.co.uk

Daily life will not return to 'normal' until Easter 2021, medical chief warns
Jonathan Van Tam, deputy chief medical officer, said spring 2021 would present a "new dawn" for the country - but urged people to follow lockdown rules until then.


A Government health chief has warned life as we know it may not return to normal until 2021.

Professor Jonathan Van Tam, deputy chief medical officer for England, warned normality may not return until at least Easter next year as new daily infections from coronavirus crept up again.

In the week ending August 9 the Office for National Statistics estimated there were 3,800 new infections a day

This is up from 3,700 a day the previous week and was published as Government scientists announced the R reproductive number “may be increasing”, the Mirror reports.

Professor Van warned the public to follow the rules until a vaccine could become effective.

“I don’t think the use of vaccines will provide a meaningful ‘public health result’ until about Easter,” he said.

“After that I’m hoping that their impact will be substantial.


“I’d hope that spring 2021 will represent a new dawn for the country, by which time we’ll be able to live life fairly safely.
“Even so, moving forward, the way we live will change.
“Covid-19 won’t be eradicated anytime soon and we’ll have to learn to live with it to some extent.
“Maybe working from home will become far more common over the longer term in some industries.”
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) published its latest R range showing it remained between 0.8 and 1 for the UK.
However it warned this is based on factors including deaths and hospital admissions which can take a few weeks to show up in the data.
The ONS surveillance testing of 20,000 people revealed new infections had surged by 50% in the week up to July 26 before dropping slightly in the week ending August 2.
Katherine Kent, head of the ONS Covid-19 Infection Survey, said: “This week’s estimate suggests that the increase in infections in England seen in July has now levelled off.

 

[AdamWW]

Just 3 people died of Coronavirus today, THREE people! Deaths stats are going to be incredibly low now, most probably in single digits across a 7-day rolling average. So if this social distancing and face mask wearing rules continues for too much longer now, it really is going to absolutely ridiculous and absolute insanity as it's absolutely doing enormous damage to the economy, people's livelihoods and mental health. Even November at the earliest to scrap social distancing and face masking wearing rules is far too late.

How does the number of deaths occurring while measures are being taken to prevent infection numbers from rising tell you what would happen if we dropped the restrictions?

 

[DB]

How does the number of deaths occurring while measures are being taken to prevent infection numbers from rising tell you what would happen if we dropped the restrictions?

It doesn't - but given that distancing has largely collapsed and masks probably don't make much difference (the evidence is weak even if they are used properly, and vast numbers aren't) this at least suggests that dropping measures wouldn't make much difference.

And even if it does, so what? If measures are put in place to protection care homes and hospitals, and to allow others at risk to stay at home if they wish then the chances of it overwhelming the NHS are minimal. The damage being done to society and the economy is now way out of proportion.

We can't keep hiding behind the sofa - it's not going to go away.

 

[Huntergreed]

Just 3 people died of Coronavirus today, THREE people! Deaths stats are going to be incredibly low now, most probably in single digits across a 7-day rolling average. So if this social distancing and face mask wearing rules continues for too much longer now, it really is going to absolutely ridiculous and absolute insanity as it's absolutely doing enormous damage to the economy, people's livelihoods and mental health. Even November at the earliest to scrap social distancing and face masking wearing rules is far too late.

Professor Jonathan Van Tam warning daily "normal life" will not return until AT LEAST Easter 2021! You must be absolutely joking man! We can't continue with this madness for another EIGHT MONTHS!!!

Daily life will not return to 'normal' until Easter 2021, medical chief warns
Jonathan Van Tam, deputy chief medical officer, said spring 2021 would present a "new dawn" for the country - but urged people to follow lockdown rules until then.


A Government health chief has warned life as we know it may not return to normal until 2021.

Professor Jonathan Van Tam, deputy chief medical officer for England, warned normality may not return until at least Easter next year as new daily infections from coronavirus crept up again.

In the week ending August 9 the Office for National Statistics estimated there were 3,800 new infections a day

This is up from 3,700 a day the previous week and was published as Government scientists announced the R reproductive number “may be increasing”, the Mirror reports.

Professor Van warned the public to follow the rules until a vaccine could become effective.

“I don’t think the use of vaccines will provide a meaningful ‘public health result’ until about Easter,” he said.

“After that I’m hoping that their impact will be substantial.


“I’d hope that spring 2021 will represent a new dawn for the country, by which time we’ll be able to live life fairly safely.
“Even so, moving forward, the way we live will change.
“Covid-19 won’t be eradicated anytime soon and we’ll have to learn to live with it to some extent.
“Maybe working from home will become far more common over the longer term in some industries.”
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) published its latest R range showing it remained between 0.8 and 1 for the UK.
However it warned this is based on factors including deaths and hospital admissions which can take a few weeks to show up in the data.
The ONS surveillance testing of 20,000 people revealed new infections had surged by 50% in the week up to July 26 before dropping slightly in the week ending August 2.
Katherine Kent, head of the ONS Covid-19 Infection Survey, said: “This week’s estimate suggests that the increase in infections in England seen in July has now levelled off.

Daily life will not return to 'normal' until Easter 2021, medical chief warns

Jonathan Van Tam, deputy chief medical officer, said spring 2021 would present a "new dawn" for the country - but urged people to follow lockdown rules until then

www.chroniclelive.co.uk

Important part is highlighted, restrictions 'may' last until then. In my opinion, by Christmas nobody will be following them unless they are made law, in which case I can imagine large levels of civil disobedience, civil protests, and perhaps even at that point, riots from the millions who have lost their jobs and livelihoods at the incompetence of this cabinet.

I'm just willing to put up with this nonsense until November, but after that I'll have absolutely no issue with living my life in a completely normal way, this includes social gatherings, visiting family and friends etc...

This is getting absolutely ridiculous now, it's so clear that they have no idea how to get out of the corner they've backed themselves into so are instead digging a hole into that corner and with each new restriction that hole gets deeper.

Truth is, if there's nobody dying from it and hardly anyone in hospital, they cannot justify this level of restrictions on our lives, and I imagine there will be legal challenges if this is kept up after we get single figure/0 deaths consistently.

 

[Class 33]

How does the number of deaths occurring while measures are being taken to prevent infection numbers from rising tell you what would happen if we dropped the restrictions?

I agree pretty much with DavidB's and Huntersgreed's comments on this.

They can't keep us all wrapped up in cotton wool for possibly another 8 months(or even longer!) of these restrictions. As by then, thousands of companies would have gone under and unemployment reached record sky high levels. The UK would be in a very dire state by then if this nonsense continues for as long as that. I think someone on here mentioned that someone in the government predicted unemployment would reach about 8 MILLION or so after the furlough scheme ends in October. This is absolutely madness!

 

[talldave]

How does the number of deaths occurring while measures are being taken to prevent infection numbers from rising tell you what would happen if we dropped the restrictions?

Hang on, shouldn't we currently be holding the funerals of most of the 500,000 people who crammed onto Bournemouth beach?

Perhaps the elderly and the overweight are sensibly keeping a low profile and everyone else is just getting on with life? Infections apparently went up as a result of the 24th July mask law. Surely ICUs should now be dealing with the tides of patients from the infection increase? Apparently just 1 person per million of UK population are currently on a ventilator.

Meanwhile lots more people are dying from flu and pneumonia and nobody seems to give that the slightest mention?

 

[yorkie]

People like Jonathan Van Tam need to get real, they're in cloud cuckoo land.

Meanwhile lots more people are dying from flu...

Media hysteria only applies to certain types of deaths, and in turn this drives hysteria among easily influenced people who are very shouty, which in turn influences Government policy.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

People like Jonathan Van Tam need to get real, they're in cloud cuckoo land.

I don't think they're in cloud cuckoo land as such - they're just giving their opinions/expectations based on purely medical grounds.

But yes, I agree, 8 months is far too long. Physical distancing should be scrapped outdoors now - it's pretty evident that transmission is marginal outdoors. Bit of a tricky situation indoors, though, and requires a bit more thought.

I look forward to the police knocking on everyone's door on the 25th December checking no one is breaching the rules on household gatherings, because by then I expect most people will have given up.

 

[87electric]

And now we see people on here opening their eyes to the real problems because now the penny has dropped that the economy (or lack of economy) will actually affect them personally.

Everyone was distracted by a false, high modelling of death numbers to a "not deadly" virus (never been isolated I might add), distracted by concerns to the NHS, distracted by "science" of R numbers and a PCR test that shouldn't have been used as a diagnostic (even acknowledged by the inventor of the test), and generally glued to social media which spread the fear into the minds to subserviently go into lockdown, some very happy to furlough. And just wait when the realisation dawns that there will be no jobs to go back to.

Every Government decision was designed to be vague and confusing. Decisions made late at night and without due process of discussion in London.
It seems we have finally got to a wake up call situation at long last.

Back on topic to the economy: Globalisation does not operate by thinking of the borders of Nations. That should surely be obvious when industries were sold off decades ago. Countries exist in name only. McDonalds cares not what language you speak or where you live. Think about it.

Economies are deliberately being destroyed. A new sustainability is desired, just search for Prince Charles and The Great Reset. Over the years we have all seen the decline of high street shops and I've certainly seen the death of USA shopping malls. The technology we all rely on is forcing us to buy online one way or another. This isn't implemented all at once but over a long period of time.

The obvious obstacle is cash. It is an enemy. Cashless buses and smart ticketing to contactless paying is now deemed normal. When cash is extinct we will all be slaves to the new credit system.

Critical thinking is required now more than ever. Question everything. I refused the Poll Tax and passionately acted on getting that U turned. Where the hell has everybody's spirit and fight gone these days?

 

[yorkie]

I don't see how it can possibly be deliberate; it's incompetence, based on misplaced priorities.

 

[cactustwirly]

We need to rebuild our manufacturing base in my view - be more like Germany.

Not going to happen, manufacturing here is just too expensive, it's not competitive anymore.

 

[Yew]

Not going to happen, manufacturing here is just too expensive, it's not competitive anymore.

Not necessarily, high-tech manufacturing has been gradually growing in size.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

I see Sunak has been gobbing off. This is actively unhelpful, as shouting about there being a recession stops people spending and makes it worse. They really should just stick to reporting actual figures and not influencing behaviour by way of emotive terminology.

What? Good luck with that last bit!
This is a government that has failed to stick to reporting actual Covid deaths, not those who died of other causes, months after a positive test. A government that wasn’t content with just influencing the wearing of face coverings, but mandating them, despite not providing any credible evidence that they reduce transmission in humans.

 

[317 forever]

I see Sunak has been gobbing off. This is actively unhelpful, as shouting about there being a recession stops people spending and makes it worse. They really should just stick to reporting actual figures and not influencing behaviour by way of emotive terminology.

Furthermore, it was the June growth figures that finally confirmed that we have technically entered recession. The June growth figure was a record-breaking plus 8.6%. So, although we have technically entered recession, the economy is not currently receding.

However, as quite a few redundancies will continue, including some currently on furlough, there will come the point at which growth largely levels off.

 

[al78]

Not going to happen, manufacturing here is just too expensive, it's not competitive anymore.

Plus it is convenient to export the damaging environmental consequences overseas, so it looks like we have reduced our carbon footprint.

 

[al78]

Meanwhile lots more people are dying from flu and pneumonia and nobody seems to give that the slightest mention?

Because that is part of the annual baseline death toll, and flu at least has a vaccine which helps lessen the more vulnerable death toll. COVID is a new virus with the potential to cause thousands of extra deaths on top of the baseline, hence the desire to try and minimise that happening. If we have a severe flu outbreak i.e. well above average it is mentioned in the news.

Whataboutism is not a sound logical argument, it is a distraction at best, lets drop it please. I actually agree with the general principle that we have to stop scaremongering, plan a road back to normality, and we need to leanr to deal with this virus as we do with others like flu, but some of the posts on here are getting ridiculous. It is like countering hysteria with hysteria.

 

[DB]

If we have a severe flu outbreak i.e. well above average it is mentioned in the news.

Mentioned, yes - but not the lead news item for months on end, and not resulting in ruinous social restrictions.

 

[trainophile]

What? Good luck with that last bit!
This is a government that has failed to stick to reporting actual Covid deaths, not those who died of other causes, months after a positive test. A government that wasn’t content with just influencing the wearing of face coverings, but mandating them, despite not providing any credible evidence that they reduce transmission in humans.

Not to mention deliberately never mentioning the numbers of those who have recovered from Covid and can be removed from the figures.