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Universal Basic Income, post-automation world etc

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Bletchleyite

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Created this thread to follow on from the various DOO, ATO etc threads in which the question is posed as to how society will work when there are not enough non automated jobs left to ensure most people can have one.

Discuss away :)
 
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BestWestern

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Which way is the euthanasia clinic? I'll go voluntarily before the robots come for us all. Sad world we're creating
 

HSTEd

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The ultimate currency in an advanced society is energy.

Given enough energy I can grow food with minimal land inputs, I can turn seawater into a variety of useful industrial materials, and fabricate numerous other resources from materials that are in no way in limited supply.

Cheap, reliable energy is the most important thing.
 
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Bletchleyite

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Which way is the euthanasia clinic? I'll go voluntarily before the robots come for us all. Sad world we're creating

If we created it right, it could be a world of opportunity, where people get money obtained from the productivity of machines rather than from having to work for most of their lives.

Sure, a few would just sit and watch the telly, but what if we could all just do what we wanted rather than work?
 

NSEFAN

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If we created it right, it could be a world of opportunity, where people get money obtained from the productivity of machines rather than from having to work for most of their lives.

Sure, a few would just sit and watch the telly, but what if we could all just do what we wanted rather than work?
The problem is transitioning to such a world from where we are now. People need routine and a sense of self-worth, which can be lost when they lose their jobs. We also generally automate a process to save money, the redundant worker's lives only improve if they are able/willing to find another job. Even if we make humans completely redundant, there will probably need to be some activity provided to help people remain healthy and feel valued.
 

HSTEd

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The problem is transitioning to such a world from where we are now. People need routine and a sense of self-worth, which can be lost when they lose their jobs. We also generally automate a process to save money, the redundant worker's lives only improve if they are able/willing to find another job. Even if we make humans completely redundant, there will probably need to be some activity provided to help people remain healthy and feel valued.
As much as people make fun of Star Trek as "fully automated luxury space communism" - some elements of the series are instructive in this regard.

The man who runs a restaurant serving Creole cooking, not because he does it to survive but because he wants to, and wants to share his love for and mastery of cooking.
Or the family who runs a Vineyard the way their family has always run a Vineyard - because traditional viticulture is what they have always done.
 

Abpj17

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The ultimate currency in an advanced society is energy.

Given enough energy I can grow food with minimal land inputs, I can turn seawater into a variety of useful industrial materials, and conduct numerous other resources.

Cheap, reliable energy is the most important thing.

It's time...
 

Jonny

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The other thing that will end up changing is the view of work; once the point is reached where tasks - including decision making - can be done better by a machine than a person, where is the dignity in that work?
 

Dave1987

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The crux of the automation dilemma is for those at the bottom. If providing yourself as labour to a company or Government/organisation in return for a wages stops becoming an option for people then unless another system is devised for people to live then you will end up with either people starving to death or having to pay them benefits. As always there will be those who will benefit from the spread of automation. As I have said repeatedly, for people to embrace technology and automation they have to see how their lives will be improved and their standard of living improved by automation. If they stand to have their living standards go down by automation they are highly unlikely to embrace it. If automation starts to make people’s lives worse then civil unrest has potential to break out in the future, as has been seen already in other countries.
 

deltic

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The problem is transitioning to such a world from where we are now. People need routine and a sense of self-worth, which can be lost when they lose their jobs. We also generally automate a process to save money, the redundant worker's lives only improve if they are able/willing to find another job. Even if we make humans completely redundant, there will probably need to be some activity provided to help people remain healthy and feel valued.

The very rich who have never had to work never seem to have a problem with feeling valued, needing a routine or a sense of self-worth. If I didnt have to work to keep a roof over my head there are lots of other things I would quite happily do to keep myself occupied.

Work is often used as a way of controlling people, making them conform etc - freedom from the need to work would be a great thing
 

Tetchytyke

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People need routine and a sense of self-worth, which can be lost when they lose their jobs

The very wealthy don't have any issues with self-worth despite not working.

Work is about control. Feudal peasants worked for their Lord because they had to, not because of the joy of work. Not so very much has changed. The feudal tie is now just called a "mortgage".

That's why a Universal Income will never happen, even though it would make more sense. Giving people freedom? Why do that when you can fill their day, and waste their energy, with monotonous work?

Benefits would be cheaper to administer if you didn't have all the pointless conditionality. But then the conditionality keeps people pinned down, and under control. So that's why we have it.
 

Dai Corner

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Of course millions of people already have a 'universal basic income' . It's called a pension and I'm one of them.

The majority of my peers find plenty to do to feel valued, maintain a routine or have a sense of self worth. For example they look after grandchildren (or parents), do voluntary work, pursue sports and hobbies, travel or study individually or for formal qualifications. Yes, some probably sit on for the of the telly (or computer screen) all day but so what?

Personally, I love not having any structure imposed on my life and doing more or less what I want.
 
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yorkie

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Bletchleyite - people have been making these claims for hundreds of years when new developments occurred.

http://www.bbc.com/capital/story/20180312-historys-unfounded-fears-over-the-future-of-work

Here are some unfounded fears and wildly optimistic predictions about the tech that has transformed the way we live, work and communicate...

1492
Printing will leave monks with nothing to do
1811-16 Weaving machines will destroy skilled jobs
1926 Telephones will kill off face-to-face meetings
1959 AI will take all our jobs


Arctic Troll
- are you telling us you do not enjoy your job? If so, have you tried looking for alternatives?
 

Bletchleyite

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@yorkie Of course, one fact of note is that automation (IT) has spawned a whole industry of its own which barely existed prior to the 1960s, employing millions if not billions of people worldwide including myself.

Could it mean that there won't be train drivers? Yes, it could.

Could it mean that there will instead be people doing the things people are good at - helping other people out, rather than being some kind of human machine performing menial tasks? Yes, it could.

That's where I get the "guard only operation" thing from - a guard is a better job to be done by a person than a driver, because a guard's job is about serving and keeping safe people (don't get hung up on door operation), whereas much of a driver's job (not all of it, I accept) basically involves being a human machine controlling another machine not capable of controlling itself. People like personal service when they need help, and will continue, I would say, to be willing to pay for it.

Which is why I do not expect there to be completely staffless trains in the UK in the next 50 or even 100 years, whereas I would expect to see at least some within the next 20 with one member of staff on board whose role is to deal with people - just like the DLR.
 

HSTEd

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The thing about digital industries is the cost of replication of stuff you have is zero

Once I have written a library to interface with a certain piece of equipment or perform a certain task, it is not required that I ever touch it again.
Whilst I might have to later translate that into a new programming language, that itself is now a task which is often performed by computer, with only limited 'touching up' after the fact.

So many IT jobs are in essence transitory in the long run - we won't need that many programmers in the future because it will all only be necessary to programme new things.
I also expect that once photorealistic CGI becomes commonly and cheaply available, and it will, the demand for new video based fictional media will shrink drastically, as the old stuff will be just as good as the new stuff and we will rapidly accumulate more than a single person can ever watch in their lifetime.
 

trash80

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People need routine and a sense of self-worth, which can be lost when they lose their jobs.

For many this is true but not for anyone, i'd happily never work again. My job doesn't give me any self-worth, it just pays for me to be able to do the things which do give me self-worth. So hurry up the lottery win... ;)
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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@yorkie
Could it mean that there won't be train drivers? Yes, it could. Which is why I do not expect there to be completely staffless trains in the UK in the next 50 or even 100 years, whereas I would expect to see at least some within the next 20 with one member of staff on board whose role is to deal with people - just like the DLR.

Who will be providing the required track and infrastructural maintenance in those days in order that driverless trains can run. Do you envisage a robotic workforce to perform such tasks? One has to bring a certain amount of logic into this equation.
 

HSTEd

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In the long run, slab track and cab signalling will drastically reduce the amount of maintenance required day-to-day by rail infrastructure
 

Dave1987

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I think it is the rate of change that is causing people to be worried about automation. I walk into my bank and I'm immediately asked if I want to use one of the machines. I say no I'd like to use the manned desks and I'm immediately questioned as to exactly what I want to do in the branch and questioned as to why I don't want to use the machines. You then ask the staff why they are so persistent about the machines and they say they told by management to get people to use the machines as much as they can. So the banks are trying to force people to use machines. They then announce that they are closing branches because people are choosing to use the automation more......

Vast amounts of people in this country are simply not prepared for the huge rise in automation that is happening. But people need to work to be able to pay their mortgages and feed their families so they simply don't have the means by which to up-skill themselves for the rise in automation. Governments simply do not want to address the problem because the solutions are drastic and involve a great deal of money which they don't want to spend. We are in a 'dog eat dog' world after all and it's the 'survival of the fittest or richest' at the end of the day.
 

deltic

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Douglas Adams of Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy fame as the best quote on technology that I have seen

“I've come up with a set of rules that describe our reactions to technologies:
1. Anything that is in the world when you’re born is normal and ordinary and is just a natural part of the way the world works.
2. Anything that's invented between when you’re fifteen and thirty-five is new and exciting and revolutionary and you can probably get a career in it.
3. Anything invented after you're thirty-five is against the natural order of things.”
 

Yew

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I'd be interested to see a form of UBI, if the trials in Canada and Scandinavia are successful, maybe sooner, rather than later?

Remember than historically, any automtation or mechanisation has improved the average quality of life, it's no coincidence that slavery was abolished at the dawn of the industrial age..
 

underbank

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The very wealthy don't have any issues with self-worth despite not working.

Plenty of retired/wealthy people do voluntary/community work. One of my clients is a financial advisor who's just "retired" at the tender age of 54. He's already working 3 days per week at the Citizen's Advice Bureau giving financial advice to those with debt problems, or who've been mis-sold pensions or equity release schemes.

Benefits would be cheaper to administer if you didn't have all the pointless conditionality. But then the conditionality keeps people pinned down, and under control. So that's why we have it.

Conditionality also means that those who don't need the benefits don't get them. Otherwise everyone would get all benefits whether they needed them or not. Not only would that be ruinously expensive for the country, it would also mean the rich got richer.
 

HSTEd

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Conditionality also means that those who don't need the benefits don't get them. Otherwise everyone would get all benefits whether they needed them or not. Not only would that be ruinously expensive for the country, it would also mean the rich got richer.

The rich would recieve benefits, and would have them immediately taxed away again.

There is no point having conditionality in taxes and conditionality in benefits at the same time - it is just a wasteful duplication of effort.
 

Tetchytyke

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Conditionality also means that those who don't need the benefits don't get them.

Not really. Or not necessarily.

Some benefits with conditionality (e.g. contributions-based JSA) are given even if someone doesnt "need" it financially.

Using tax codes to hand it out to the poor at one end and recoup it from higher paid people is tried and tested with child benefit. It'd be cheaper to do a means test that way.

Plenty of retired/wealthy people do voluntary/community work.

They do indeed, and our volunteers are valuable. Perhaps with a universal income people could volunteer in what they want to do rather than meeting arbitrary and pointless conditions?

Volunteering isn't work, either.
 

Dave1987

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If there is one thing that is for sure is that the UK is going to get one mighty big wake up call. Many people who currently have jobs but face the threat of redundancy because of automation do not have the skills for the future so will probably end up either on the dole or in very very poorly paid work. Neither is desirable or good for the economy. A massive program of training for people in their 30’s, 40’s and 50’s is needed. With the current pace of technology change the UK economy and people could suffer if actions aren’t taken very soon.
 

Dave1987

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Training for what though?

Skills that will be required in the “modern economy” of the “4th industrial revolution” or whatever number the Government ministers give it in their PR. The pace of change in technology is that fast the i don’t believe the normal rules on evolution in jobs applies. It’s the pace of change that is the real problem. People who are mid way through their current careers could easily become victims of the pace in technological change.
 
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