Universal Basic Income, post-automation world etc

[Dai Corner]

Ironically, the jobs that can't easily be automated, such as cyclist working for Deliveroo and having to risk life and limb to bring food on time to the door, will likely be the jobs we are left with. Who will do this work?

It will be automated. Not an automated cyclist, but maybe a self-guided trolley?

 

[EM2]

It will be automated. Not an automated cyclist, but maybe a self-guided trolley?

Already seen a few little robots around Milton Keynes the other day.

 

[Bromley boy]

It's not so much immigration, rather the freedom to work for some people who come (came?) to the UK to earn more than they could at home. People who only intend to stay a few months or a year or so aren't worried about mortgages and financial stability for the future, and are likely happy to rent (as is common near me, including my next door neighbours) and share rooms with others doing the same. A 3 bed house could house 10 or more people, and in some cases the bedroom is used by different people (shift workers) so each has the room for 12 hours only.

They can do this because they send the money home and a small amount of pain is worth the gain. We talk about British people being too lazy to take these jobs, but it's probably fair to say that you won't have much of a life if you were to take them. Fine perhaps if you lived with your parents and had no aspiration to leave.

Employers have been exploiting this cheap labour and may have a nasty shock if and when people go home, as is already happening now eastern Europeans are getting less money after converting to Euros or their local currency, and left wondering why they're in a country that seemingly hates them, when they could do similar work for better money in places like Spain that are more welcoming.

The far right does of course seem to want to lump those who are here, quite legally, doing jobs we don't want to do (for whatever reason) with the illegal immigrants and other foreigners, the latter of which leaving Brexit has nothing to do with.

Ironically, the jobs that can't easily be automated, such as cyclist working for Deliveroo and having to risk life and limb to bring food on time to the door, will likely be the jobs we are left with. Who will do this work?

I think this is a very good post.

I’ve certainly spoken to quite a few ex builders/tradesman who have all said they’ve struggled to compete with those who are prepared to live several to a room and send money home. It simply isn’t a level playing field if you’re trying to raise a family in the U.K., with U.K. living costs.

Of course the jobs and industries most affected by this phenomenon are those traditionally done by white working class blokes, who the wealthy political class despise and politicians of all parties have ignored over the last couple of decades.

For far too long anyone daring to make the point that unrestricted low skilled immigration isn’t necessarily a good thing for the economy as a whole has been patronised or simply shut down as “racist” or “bigoted”.

This was undoubtedly a major motivation for the 2016 leave vote.

 

[jon0844]

I think this is a very good post.

I’ve certainly spoken to quite a few ex builders/tradesman who have all said they’ve struggled to compete with those who are prepared to live several to a room and send money home. It simply isn’t a level playing field if you’re trying to raise a family in the U.K., with U.K. living costs.

Of course the jobs and industries most affected by this phenomenon are those traditionally done by white working class blokes, who the wealthy political class despise and politicians of all parties have ignored over the last couple of decades.

For far too long anyone daring to make the point that unrestricted low skilled immigration isn’t necessarily a good thing for the economy as a whole has been patronised or simply shut down as “racist” or “bigoted”.

This was undoubtedly a major motivation for the 2016 leave vote.

Indeed. It's why you had people who are/were traditional Tory voters AND traditional Labour voters each voting leave, albeit for different reasons. The Labour supporters were likely genuinely worried about having work lost to those able to work for less, while the Tory voters didn't want foreigners full stop (yet were probably quite happy to employ the services of cheaper labour, whether to decorate or clean their homes).

 

[jon0844]

It will be automated. Not an automated cyclist, but maybe a self-guided trolley?

How fast will that go? Won't it risk being messed around with by local kids up for a laugh? No, I'm pretty certain Deliveroo and the other new gig economy jobs (including the huge increase in delivery driver jobs for packages from online shopping) will be using real people for a long, long time.

Now the picking stage at the warehouses. That will of course be automated and the only people left in these places being those checking the lorries are safely loaded and ready to go out - and I am sure even they could be axed at some point. A few people left for security and that's your lot.

 

[The Ham]

How fast will that go? Won't it risk being messed around with by local kids up for a laugh? No, I'm pretty certain Deliveroo and the other new gig economy jobs (including the huge increase in delivery driver jobs for packages from online shopping) will be using real people for a long, long time.

Now the picking stage at the warehouses. That will of course be automated and the only people left in these places being those checking the lorries are safely loaded and ready to go out - and I am sure even they could be axed at some point. A few people left for security and that's your lot.

Small, relatively light with a need for fast delivery times in a fairly small geographic area could be done by few other methods:
- self drive cars which releases the door upon presentation of payment card to allow removal of food (given that most food delivery is unlike to clash with peak car demand i.e. in the morning peak, could also work for parcel delivery as well. Could even go via your station so as to take you home at the same time).
- drone delivery

With those the could still need to be deliveries made by people however (such as to large buildings) but that could be a cost option for places where it wasn't needed (i.e. free delivery to the kerb outside your house/to your driveway/garden, for drones, or £3 to be delivered to your door) which would mean that a significant number of people would be willing to save themselves the money and walk a few metres (for a lot of people paying 45p a metre to save them the walk would put them off!).

 

[Bletchleyite]

Small, relatively light with a need for fast delivery times in a fairly small geographic area could be done by few other methods:
- self drive cars which releases the door upon presentation of payment card to allow removal of food (given that most food delivery is unlike to clash with peak car demand i.e. in the morning peak, could also work for parcel delivery as well. Could even go via your station so as to take you home at the same time).
- drone delivery

One of the delivery companies is testing "mini" low speed self drive cars around MK which work near enough the same as the former and run on the Redways (shared cycle and pedestrian segregated network which is similar to what the Dutch have). They seem to work quite well.

That said if I had more time I'd seriously consider doing cycle Deliveroo as a means of getting paid a little extra to get fit (with the small amount of pay acting as an incentive to get out and get fit even in bad weather etc). Those jobs aren't really intended to be main employment, they're top-ups, either for those with another "proper" job, for stay at home parents who could do them in the evening once the parent who works all day comes home, or for students and young people.

 

[Dai Corner]

Widening the discussion a bit, what advice would we give to a 16 year old about to leave school this summer who wanted to follow a career least likely to be automated away?

 

[Bromley boy]

Those jobs aren't really intended to be main employment, they're top-ups, either for those with another "proper" job, for stay at home parents who could do them in the evening once the parent who works all day comes home, or for students and young people.

I’m not sure that’s a safe statement. They’re simply intended to benefit the company by casualising and maximising flexibility of its workforce, penalising them if they are ill, denying them holiday pay etc. No more and no less than that.

Yes there are some who no doubt do them alongside a better paying main job and don’t depend on the income but there are also people who do these jobs full time due to necessity and are de facto employees with none of the associated rights.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Widening the discussion a bit, what advice would we give to a 16 year old about to leave school this summer who wanted to follow a career least likely to be automated away?

The IT industry is going nowhere any time soon - though it will change massively very quickly as it has done over its approximately 50 year lifespan. Also very well paid.

 

[Bromley boy]

Widening the discussion a bit, what advice would we give to a 16 year old about to leave school this summer who wanted to follow a career least likely to be automated away?

Difficult to say as if all the predictions about AI are correct a lot of traditionally highly skilled jobs are going to be vulnerable - accountancy/compliance type jobs seem to be particularly ripe for automation and certain jobs in the legal sector.

In terms of things unlikely to be automated, presumably creative jobs will be harder to automate, so maybe aim for a career in the arts, advertising creative, etc.

Teaching is surely another one that will be tricky to automate.

The police force could be another?

 

[Bromley boy]

The IT industry is going nowhere any time soon - though it will change massively very quickly as it has done over its approximately 50 year lifespan. Also very well paid.

From what I’ve been told there are many jobs in the IT sector that are vulnerable to automation (some programming jobs, product testing etc.), so perhaps a question of choosing which bit of the industry to work in.

 

[Bletchleyite]

From what I’ve been told there are many jobs in the IT sector that are vulnerable to automation (some programming jobs, product testing etc.), so perhaps a question of choosing which bit of the industry to work in.

Yes, and keep your skills fresh and up to date so you can move around - you *will* need to.

The thing with IT is that while programming languages etc might last only a few years, the fundamental concepts are still the same. Learning a new programming language once you are skilled at a couple of existing ones is not at all hard.

One thing that's unlikely to go away is business analysis - laypeople are terrible at understanding what their requirements are and translating them into making a machine do something, even if actually making it do something is a no-code job.

 

[Dai Corner]

One thing that's unlikely to go away is business analysis - laypeople are terrible at understanding what their requirements are and translating them into making a machine do something, even if actually making it do something is a no-code job.

I'd agree strongly with this, having spent several years doing it back in the 1980/90s when we were computerising (as we called it then) the insurance industry.

Automation (as we call it now) will depend on good analysis and there should be enough to last a working lifetime.

 

[PeterC]

The IT industry is going nowhere any time soon - though it will change massively very quickly as it has done over its approximately 50 year lifespan. Also very well paid.

A lot of it has gone to India already.

 

[Bletchleyite]

A lot of it has gone to India already.

A lot of it has come back, because it's harder to get quality development outcomes if there are language barriers and cultural barriers in the way, and because as India's economy develops it ceases to be much cheaper.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Those jobs aren't really intended to be main employment, they're top-ups, either for those with another "proper" job, for stay at home parents who could do them in the evening once the parent who works all day comes home, or for students and young people.

Which is great in theory. But is that reality?

A lot of it has gone to India already.

That was a while ago. As Bletchleyite states above, a lot of what went over there has actually come back now. I've seen it working with some of the clients in my work. Some of them have their own offshored developers and the number of times they end up coming back to us to fix stuff their offshored team messed up is insane. It would be cheaper for us to just do the work in the UK first time around!

 

[Bletchleyite]

Which is great in theory. But is that reality?

Possibly not, but that's because of a lack of other jobs, not because jobs designed for top-ups or part-time shouldn't exist.

 

[AlterEgo]

Widening the discussion a bit, what advice would we give to a 16 year old about to leave school this summer who wanted to follow a career least likely to be automated away?

Professional footballer.

 

[Bromley boy]

Possibly not, but that's because of a lack of other jobs, not because jobs designed for top-ups or part-time shouldn't exist.

Gig economy jobs are primarily designed to save cost by stretching the concept of self employment to breaking point (and beyond), creating a flexible and expendable workforce. They really aren’t designed with anything more than that in mind.

A part time job done properly comes with employment rights, holiday entitlement etc. (pro ratad of course)

 

[Dave1987]

Though the more money people demand to do the unattractive jobs the better the case for automating them, or deciding they're not worth doing at all. Eventually you'd run out of low-skilled jobs.

There is one set of politicians who would probably jump at the chance of having as many people as possible dependent on UBI.

I have done a lot of reading about how the economy is shaping itself around automation. Automation is (and has been for a long time) hollowing out jobs of the middle class. The super wealthy will never have an issue. There will always be plenty of work that needs to be done that would currently be paid at minimum wage. A lot of it either cannot be automated or is extremely difficult or cost prohibitive to automate. If UBI is brought in people can be given a choice. Do this grotty/uninspiring/boring job for pitiful wages along with your UBI, or sit at hone and get you UBI and have a chance to study to up your skills to get a better paid job in the future. I'm pretty sure I know what most would do. I a business does have a job that needs doing that is grotty/boring/uninspiring then they will either have to pay higher wages or spend money on trying to automate it. It won't matter if they do spend that money on automating it as people will be able to up skill themselves. The biggest barrier to people bettering themselves currently is the costs of courses and the fact people need to earn money to actually live at the moment. With UBI you enable people to better themselves.

 

[Dave1987]

Gig economy jobs are primarily designed to save cost by stretching the concept of self employment to breaking point (and beyond), creating a flexible and expendable workforce. They really aren’t designed with anything more than that in mind.

A part time job done properly comes with employment rights, holiday entitlement etc. (pro ratad of course)

Totally agree. The "casualisation" of jobs is terrible. I only wish politicians would ban it or regulate it more.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Totally agree. The "casualisation" of jobs is terrible. I only wish politicians would ban it or regulate it more.

Or move the safeguards to the State, then we could gain huge flexibility from it? There are arguments both ways.

 

[Dai Corner]

Totally agree. The "casualisation" of jobs is terrible. I only wish politicians would ban it or regulate it more.

Genuine question: I've never been entirely clear what the difference between a Deliveroo or Uber driver who make themselves available and hope there will be some work and, say, a self-employed 'man with a van' who advertises his services and hopes customers will book him is that people find objectionable.

 

[Bromley boy]

Genuine question: I've never been entirely clear what the difference between a Deliveroo or Uber driver who make themselves available and hope there will be some work and, say, a self-employed 'man with a van' who advertises his services and hopes customers will book him is that people find objectionable.

A man with a van runs his own business, advertises, can choose to take work from a range of customers etc. and has made a genuine choice to be in that position. They have an equal balance of power with the customers.

An uber driver receives work from only one customer (uber) and operates as an intrinsic part of someone else’s business (uber’s) and has no equality of bargaining power. As such they are de facto employees (or at least workers). It’s objectionable that uber forces them to be self employed in order to minimise its own costs and places all the economic risks of its business (drivers being ill, work being unavailable etc.) onto its workers.

There is a range of economic and legal tests that are appllied to differentiate a worker from a self employed person - uber and deliveroo deliverately operate right on the edge of these. Uber recently lost a tribunal case which ruled that one of its drivers was a worker rather than self employed.

 

[Dave1987]

Genuine question: I've never been entirely clear what the difference between a Deliveroo or Uber driver who make themselves available and hope there will be some work and, say, a self-employed 'man with a van' who advertises his services and hopes customers will book him is that people find objectionable.

Dear oh dear there is an enormous difference between a self-employed sole trader 'man with van' and the likes of Uber. 'Man with Van' sets his/her pricing and they are offering to their customers, Uber dictate exactly what percentage of the fare the driver will get. 'Man with Van' gets all profits from their income, Uber take a huge chunk of the fare that the passenger pays. 'Man with Van' has any tips as a tax free bonus, Uber bans drivers from taking any cash tips, all tips have to go through the 'App' so Uber can take their cut (At least it was the policy the last time I heard). If 'Man with Van' doesn't have any bookings he/she doesn't need to work they can be at home. Uber drivers have to be available to take any fares that come along at the times they book to be available but they may not get ANY fares during that time. Uber gets the best of both worlds. It doesn't pay its drivers unless they actually take a fare and when they do Uber gets a huge chunk of that fare. Horrible horrible company and I will never take an Uber unless I'm forced to, same as I will never get anything delivered by Deliveroo. If that is the future of "employment" in this country then its going to be horrible for those at the bottom.

 

[Dave1987]

A man with a van runs his own business, advertises, can choose to take work from a range of customers etc. and has made a genuine choice to be in that position. They have an equal balance of power with the customers.

An uber driver receives work from only one customer (uber) and operates as an intrinsic part of someone else’s business (uber’s) and has no equality of bargaining power. As such they are de facto employees (or at least workers). It’s objectionable that uber forces them to be self employed in order to minimise its own costs and places all the economic risks of its business (drivers being ill, work being unavailable etc.) onto its workers.

There is a range of economic and legal tests that are appllied to differentiate a worker from a self employed person - uber and deliveroo deliverately operate right on the edge of these. Uber recently lost a tribunal case which ruled that one of its drivers was a worker rather than self employed.

Uber also tried to argue that I isn't a taxi/cab company but a 'platform for connecting people' or whatever rubbish they came out with to try and get around having to comply with taxi regulations

 

[Dai Corner]

Dear oh dear there is an enormous difference between a self-employed sole trader 'man with van' and the likes of Uber. 'Man with Van' sets his/her pricing and they are offering to their customers, Uber dictate exactly what percentage of the fare the driver will get. 'Man with Van' gets all profits from their income, Uber take a huge chunk of the fare that the passenger pays. 'Man with Van' has any tips as a tax free bonus, Uber bans drivers from taking any cash tips, all tips have to go through the 'App' so Uber can take their cut (At least it was the policy the last time I heard). If 'Man with Van' doesn't have any bookings he/she doesn't need to work they can be at home. Uber drivers have to be available to take any fares that come along at the times they book to be available but they may not get ANY fares during that time. Uber gets the best of both worlds. It doesn't pay its drivers unless they actually take a fare and when they do Uber gets a huge chunk of that fare. Horrible horrible company and I will never take an Uber unless I'm forced to, same as I will never get anything delivered by Deliveroo. If that is the future of "employment" in this country then its going to be horrible for those at the bottom.

I thank you and @Bromley boy for your views and respect them but don't necessarily agree that Uber buying the 'product' (in this case a taxi ride) as and when someone orders one and reselling it at a higher price is any more exploitative than a shopkeeper buying stock from a (self employed) manufacturer as and when he needs some.

But I don't want to drag the thread off topic so will make this my last post on the subject.

 

[jon0844]

Dear oh dear there is an enormous difference between a self-employed sole trader 'man with van' and the likes of Uber. 'Man with Van' sets his/her pricing and they are offering to their customers, Uber dictate exactly what percentage of the fare the driver will get. 'Man with Van' gets all profits from their income, Uber take a huge chunk of the fare that the passenger pays. 'Man with Van' has any tips as a tax free bonus, Uber bans drivers from taking any cash tips, all tips have to go through the 'App' so Uber can take their cut (At least it was the policy the last time I heard). If 'Man with Van' doesn't have any bookings he/she doesn't need to work they can be at home. Uber drivers have to be available to take any fares that come along at the times they book to be available but they may not get ANY fares during that time. Uber gets the best of both worlds. It doesn't pay its drivers unless they actually take a fare and when they do Uber gets a huge chunk of that fare. Horrible horrible company and I will never take an Uber unless I'm forced to, same as I will never get anything delivered by Deliveroo. If that is the future of "employment" in this country then its going to be horrible for those at the bottom.

Same reason I've never used an Uber or Deliveroo etc.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

The power will return to the worker as the work needs to be done but the people can choose if they want to do it or not, therefore wages would have to rise to attract people to do the job.

And if that happened, the inevitable result would be that either the companies would find ways to automate the jobs away, or prices would rise because the employers would need to cover their costs somehow. That may cause some redistribution of who earns what, but would be unlikely to leave us all better off on average.

The complete opposite way that capitalism currently deliberately restricts the amount of work available, to keep demand for it higher and depress wages, thereby increasing profits.

*sigh*. How does an abstract philosophical concept manage to ever do anything deliberately? And if, trying to read between the lines, you actually meant to say that some person or organisation is managing to successfully and deliberately restrict the amount of work available, then could you clarify who that person or organisation is, and how they are managing to achieve this extraordinary feat across the entire UK economy?

Or maybe it's time to put the conspiracy theories away?