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Vaccine Progress, Approval, and Deployment

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Domh245

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They awarded a contract for design work for vaccine passports in November (have a look on contracts finder)

I do despair, it's quite clearly the plan then to entertain this stupid idea without ever officially backing it then :(

I can only hope then that either:
a) in the usual style of most government contracts it fails spectacularly and never sees the light of day in any reasonable timeframe
b) the vaccine rollout goes unbelievably well and I (as a healthy 23yo) am offered and given this vaccine before everything is open and asking for passports (rendering them pointless)

Somehow I fear it'll be option c where the vaccine rollout goes spectacularly wrong/slowly and every company has their own non-standard 'passport' requirements
 
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hwl

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So, what's the plan currently, are those under 50 still not expected to get the vaccine?
Under 50s probably starting after Easter (if Oxford-AZ is approved).

The interesting bit is how you target vaccination for maximum impact. By that point there should be some preliminary analysis of transmission rate reduction which will probably inform the strategy which is why they aren't bothering to say that much at this stage as there is little point.

Focusing on contact level prioritisation makes much more sense than age below 50, even more so the greater the impact of transmission rate reduction.

At the moment thinks are limited to 16/18 to 50 as the clinical trials were all 18+ apart form Pfizer / BioNTech which was 16+. The US government funded a Moderna vaccine trial in 12-18 age group in November so we might have some results from that when the UK Moderna stocks start to arrive in April. Which might have huge secondary school normalisation impact.
 

Yew

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Vaccinating millions of people in the UK will start to give you that data in the next few months...
Indeed, they almost certainly will help to some extent.

However, to restrict certain groups from activities due to limited vaccine supplies because of protections that haven't yet been proven would be typical of the contempt that this government has shown to young people throughout this whole saga.
 

The Ham

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Lets not mention that none of the vaccines have been shown to reduce transmission...

Other then the Oxford vaccine has shown that 60% (minimum) of those who would otherwise be expected to have contacted Covid-19 have no measurable amount of the virus.

If those people don't have a measurable amount then they can't pass it on, which in itself would reduce the rate of transmission.

In simple terms (if everyone had the vaccine) for every 3 who would have had it there'll then be 1. However that then carries on, so rather than 3 passing it onto 9 and then onto 27 and then 81, it'll be 1 passing it onto 1, and onto 1, and onto 1. (Due to it not being 66.667% then it'll be slightly more than 1 and so the last step might be onto 2).

If they can get the Oxford vaccine numbers higher (which might be possible with the half/full dose option) then that would allow for a lower uptake in the vaccine before we get there.

However the main goal is to stop hospitalisations (which in turn will stop deaths). Again the Oxford vaccine showed no people going to hospital, which was much lower than within the control group (where there was one Covid-19 death - I don't recall the numbers who went to hospital).
 

Domh245

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Other then the Oxford vaccine has shown that 60% (minimum) of those who would otherwise be expected to have contacted Covid-19 have no measurable amount of the virus.

If those people don't have a measurable amount then they can't pass it on, which in itself would reduce the rate of transmission.

Not necessarily. Whilst asymptomatic testing was carried out as part of the oxford trials (english arm only), these were self administered once a week, it only proves that there was no detectable amount of virus at the time the swab was administered. There is no proof that they didn't catch it and spread it before the immunity conferred by the vaccine 'kicked in' - presymptomatic spread is supposedly one of the bigger issues, and this is the period between infection and immune response, so it's not impossible for a similar situation to occur with the vaccines. It's highly likely that it'll masively reduce spread if not eliminate it, but it certainly hasn't been shown to reduce transmission (not least because I don't think any ethics board would approve such an experiment, nor the infrastructure in place to carry out a study in the public)

However the main goal is to stop hospitalisations (which in turn will stop deaths).

As it should be. However, many organisations are not seeing this goal, but instead are seeing it as a means of ensuring that there won't be any outbreaks that can be traced back to them, unproven and unnecessary as it is
 

The Ham

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Not necessarily. Whilst asymptomatic testing was carried out as part of the oxford trials (english arm only), these were self administered once a week, it only proves that there was no detectable amount of virus at the time the swab was administered. There is no proof that they didn't catch it and spread it before the immunity conferred by the vaccine 'kicked in' - presymptomatic spread is supposedly one of the bigger issues, and this is the period between infection and immune response, so it's not impossible for a similar situation to occur with the vaccines

Although that does massively reduce the window in which they can catch the virus and then pass it on.

As you're then looking at a less than a week within the period from first vaccine to a few weeks after the second. Rather than at any time.

Yes there's still going to be risks, but they are much smaller than not having the vaccine.

However I'd also point out that there's no evidence that they do. However with a major rollout we're likely to know how well they do. In that if we see higher/lower than expected rates of infection then there's a good chance that it'll provide the answers we don't yet have.
 

packermac

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I do despair, it's quite clearly the plan then to entertain this stupid idea without ever officially backing it then :(

I can only hope then that either:
a) in the usual style of most government contracts it fails spectacularly and never sees the light of day in any reasonable timeframe
b) the vaccine rollout goes unbelievably well and I (as a healthy 23yo) am offered and given this vaccine before everything is open and asking for passports (rendering them pointless)

Somehow I fear it'll be option c where the vaccine rollout goes spectacularly wrong/slowly and every company has their own non-standard 'passport' requirements
I am sure we will end up with a "world acceptable" vaccine passport just like a regular passport.
There will be countries that demand it, most airlines probably will (although like visa now they will have to enforce entry requirements). Do not know if domestically companies will enforce it or not (I hope they would) as I do not believe everyone is responsible. For example that guy on the United flight from Orlando last week that had experienced no taste or smell for a week yet only planned to get a test on arrival at LAX. He had a heart attack on flight, died, and now those who tried to help him are testing positive.
 

Domh245

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Although that does massively reduce the window in which they can catch the virus and then pass it on.

As you're then looking at a less than a week within the period from first vaccine to a few weeks after the second. Rather than at any time.

I'm not so sure. My point was more that there is a period between being infected with the virus, and the immune response shutting down the infected cells and 'containing' the infection, as the infection needs to be spotted, the body's "defence mechanisms" produced and sent to the infected cells &c. This period will still exist with those who've gained immunity by vaccination as the immune response is the same as for a 'natural' infection and so after some point the directly acting immunity (antibodies) ebb away and the body relies on the memory cells to detect a new infection and retrigger the body's response. Dependant on how long the antibodies stick around, and how quickly and effectively the virus can be transmitted between infection and immune response will alter how immunity (either vaccinated or naturally occurring) can effect spread.

I am sure we will end up with a "world acceptable" vaccine passport just like a regular passport.
There will be countries that demand it, most airlines probably will (although like visa now they will have to enforce entry requirements). Do not know if domestically companies will enforce it or not (I hope they would) as I do not believe everyone is responsible.

Countries (and airlines on their behalf) I can accept demanding proof of vaccine, but I am sad to see it. It is their call if they want to accept tourists or not and I suppose that in many ways it'll just be like a visa which can discriminate on wealth (if you can afford to get the vaccine privately or not) or other grounds (if you're a healthcare worker, or old and have been given the vaccine as a priority)

Unfortunately many domestic companies are making murmurings about requiring these, and the 'vaccine rollout minister' hasn't helped matter by implicitly suggesting it

Asked on Monday whether people who get the Covid-19 jab will receive some kind of "immunity passport" to show they have been vaccinated, Mr Zahawi told the BBC: "We are looking at the technology.
"And, of course, a way of people being able to inform their GP that they have been vaccinated.
"But, also, I think you'll probably find that restaurants and bars and cinemas and other venues, sports venues, will probably also use that system - as they have done with the (test and trace) app.
"I think that in many ways, the pressure will come from both ways, from service providers who'll say, 'Look, demonstrate to us that you have been vaccinated'.

Whilst I can't find stories of companies coming out now and saying "we will operate a vaccine passport system" there's been far too many stories for my liking about these being suggested (both UK and elsewhere) often with snippets from business owners mentioning it as an option. That and the words coming from government (or lack of) means that many will be planning this unfortunately

I agree that "everyone is responsible" but I believe that this should be to the extent of taking precautionary measures around capacity, ventilation, etc, not demanding medical histories and discriminating against those who cannot receive a vaccine. It's a fundamentally unworkable and unpalatable idea, as during the first phase of vaccine rollout (the priority groups) you can't operate it as very few people will have had it. Doing it during the roll out of the vaccine to everyone will be horrifically unfair to those who for whatever reason haven't been given an earlier opportunity to get their vaccine, and after the rollout is complete and everyone who wants one has had one, it's self defeating as pretty much anyone who hasn't had it isn't going to have it
 

cactustwirly

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I'm not so sure. My point was more that there is a period between being infected with the virus, and the immune response shutting down the infected cells and 'containing' the infection, as the infection needs to be spotted, the body's "defence mechanisms" produced and sent to the infected cells &c. This period will still exist with those who've gained immunity by vaccination as the immune response is the same as for a 'natural' infection and so after some point the directly acting immunity (antibodies) ebb away and the body relies on the memory cells to detect a new infection and retrigger the body's response. Dependant on how long the antibodies stick around, and how quickly and effectively the virus can be transmitted between infection and immune response will alter how immunity (either vaccinated or naturally occurring) can effect spread.

The immune system is very complex and the use of antibodies is often overstated.
They are passive proteins that stick to the spike proteins preventing the virus from entering cells.
It's the B cells that do the killing, and the T cells initiate and co-ordinate the immune response.

In individuals with immunity, the immune response is very rapid, so you're right there is period in which the virus can multiply but it isn't long at all.

Also remember that the symptoms, such as a cough (which spreads the virus) is from the non-specific immune response.
This isn't required when the much more efficient specific immune response is initiated in immune people (this is also used in non immune people but takes a long time, hence the initial non specific immune response). So they will often have no symptoms.
 

The Ham

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I'm not so sure. My point was more that there is a period between being infected with the virus, and the immune response shutting down the infected cells and 'containing' the infection, as the infection needs to be spotted, the body's "defence mechanisms" produced and sent to the infected cells &c. This period will still exist with those who've gained immunity by vaccination as the immune response is the same as for a 'natural' infection and so after some point the directly acting immunity (antibodies) ebb away and the body relies on the memory cells to detect a new infection and retrigger the body's response. Dependant on how long the antibodies stick around, and how quickly and effectively the virus can be transmitted between infection and immune response will alter how immunity (either vaccinated or naturally occurring) can effect spread

However the same point still stands, even if there was a contagion, chances are some cases would have occurred during the trail and therefore it would have to be unmeasurable at each of the weekly tests.
 

Crossover

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Ah, my 28 year old friends aim to get the vaccine in 2021 might be a little optimistic then.
There is a vaccine calculator online (I forget where) which gives me a date of July to September 2021 for expected vaccination (with various expectations on vaccination rate etc being met). This may be where your friends have the expectation from and whilst I hope it is the case, in my case I will believe it when I see it
 

Huntergreed

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I will be VERY annoyed if I am forced to cancel my travelling plans in Europe for 2021 due to not having a “vaccine passport”, because the government hasn’t got down to my age yet (19).

I do, however, fully expect this to happen, as it seems the young don’t matter anymore to this government.
 

HSTEd

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I do, however, fully expect this to happen, as it seems the young don’t matter anymore to this government.

Your importance to the government is primarily derived from your likelihood of voting for Boris in 2024.
 

Richard Scott

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I will be VERY annoyed if I am forced to cancel my travelling plans in Europe for 2021 due to not having a “vaccine passport”, because the government hasn’t got down to my age yet (19).

I do, however, fully expect this to happen, as it seems the young don’t matter anymore to this government.
The whole of Europe seems to have a totally disproportionate response to this virus and the solutions including vaccination. Cannot believe they would even consider going down this road but bet they will.
 

brad465

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Your importance to the government is primarily derived from your likelihood of voting for Boris in 2024.
That also depends on how much parents and other relatives who are older care about their younger children are likely to vote Tory. The U-turn on exam results earlier this year was a consequence of the Government realising their voter base wouldn't like the outcome, despite the fact everyone directly affected (i.e the students) will never have voted in their life so far.

If such a discriminative vaccine passport was ever proposed publicly, don't expect those to suffer from it to keep quiet either: there will be disruptive protests that will be difficult to ignore.
 

kez19

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I will be VERY annoyed if I am forced to cancel my travelling plans in Europe for 2021 due to not having a “vaccine passport”, because the government hasn’t got down to my age yet (19).

I do, however, fully expect this to happen, as it seems the young don’t matter anymore to this government.


Still though I guess the tinfoil hat brigade were pretty close to being correct on that one? I have seen this pop up every now and again but let me guess reality mid 2021?

type on search on twitter - vaccinepassport ... oh look what appears!
 
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I will be VERY annoyed if I am forced to cancel my travelling plans in Europe for 2021 due to not having a “vaccine passport”, because the government hasn’t got down to my age yet (19).

I do, however, fully expect this to happen, as it seems the young don’t matter anymore to this government.
From what a colleague (French) was saying, her husband, as well as having to get a visa, may have to have proof of vaccination if/when they go to her parents farm in France on retirement next year. Given the low cost of the latest vaccine it may be worth seeking it out privately if available. The Govt. have stated that the likes of BUPA will be allowed to source the vaccine, once all the doses required by the NHS have been delivered. NHS Practices are being paid a total of £25.16p per course administered. If the patient fails to return for the second dose they get £12.58, so there is an incentive to get it done as fast, and as efficiently as possible. Not that health professionals need that incentive, after all nearly 700 of them died in 2020 from covid. You may well find that a UK passport will not be that welcome in a number of locations after the behaviour of a few.

My nephew lives in Zurich and the anger felt there about this is openly expressed. Swiss based Common Trust Network is working with several major airlines to develop a digital health passport to be used when crossing borders.

I noticed the job center in my area had a advert saying my local NHS board were looking for temporary staff for their mass vaccination centers so I looks like they are getting prepared
30,000 are currently in, or have been trained. Locally we are aiming at 110,000 a week being vaccinated at a local football stadium. The logistics are in place, but many military and NHS staff are sick with covid or having to isolate.
 
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Bantamzen

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I am sure we will end up with a "world acceptable" vaccine passport just like a regular passport.
There will be countries that demand it, most airlines probably will (although like visa now they will have to enforce entry requirements). Do not know if domestically companies will enforce it or not (I hope they would) as I do not believe everyone is responsible. For example that guy on the United flight from Orlando last week that had experienced no taste or smell for a week yet only planned to get a test on arrival at LAX. He had a heart attack on flight, died, and now those who tried to help him are testing positive.
In order to have a "world acceptable vaccine passport", you must first have a worldwide available vaccine. Otherwise you will have to exclude millions of people from travel, a problem for airlines trying to make money, and an even bigger problem for countries reliant on tourism for significant amounts of their GDP.
 
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In order to have a "world acceptable vaccine passport", you must first have a worldwide available vaccine. Otherwise you will have to exclude millions of people from travel, a problem for airlines trying to make money, and an even bigger problem for countries reliant on tourism for significant amounts of their GDP.
How many types of passport are there? Thousands I should think given that even the UK has nine types, but all meet basic recognised requirements. The Swiss have already said what their proposed vaccine passport would need and they are working with the biggest airlines to get a standard format. There are all sorts of issues around confidentiality and human rights, but as with visas, some countries will definitely require proof of vaccination. As for the vaccine rollout, we have just been informed of another delay due to staff having covid at a distribution facility in the Midlands. That is where the vaccination packs were coming from (not the actual vaccine).
If you are over 50, with no underlying health conditions, it is likely to be May before the vaccine gets to you. My advice, do not book a holiday until much later in the year.
 

Bantamzen

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How many types of passport are there? Thousands I should think given that even the UK has nine types, but all meet basic recognised requirements. The Swiss have already said what their proposed vaccine passport would need and they are working with the biggest airlines to get a standard format. There are all sorts of issues around confidentiality and human rights, but as with visas, some countries will definitely require proof of vaccination. As for the vaccine rollout, we have just been informed of another delay due to staff having covid at a distribution facility in the Midlands. That is where the vaccination packs were coming from (not the actual vaccine).
If you are over 50, with no underlying health conditions, it is likely to be May before the vaccine gets to you. My advice, do not book a holiday until much later in the year.
Realistically it will be much longer than that if at all, which is why the idea of a vaccination passport is simply not workable. If the Swiss are doing it they are going to have to accept that there will be a lot less people travelling there, meaning less income from tourism. Any country thinking about such a scheme is going to have to accept the same, which for some countries means another year of serious problems for many of their citizens whose livelihoods rely on tourism.
 

Huntergreed

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I think it’s clear that, despite being blatant age-based discrimination and having a very negative effect on international tourism, the vaccine passport is definitely going to be a requirement for many (most?) countries soon.

Indeed I may have to get it done privately, but I’m annoyed that it’s happening in the first place. I always had a feeling it would though, I guess that’s my multiple country trip to Europe in summer off the cards though, again :(
 

Richard Scott

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I think it’s clear that, despite being blatant age-based discrimination and having a very negative effect on international tourism, the vaccine passport is definitely going to be a requirement for many (most?) countries soon.

Indeed I may have to get it done privately, but I’m annoyed that it’s happening in the first place. I always had a feeling it would though, I guess that’s my multiple country trip to Europe in summer off the cards though, again :(
Exactly and another issue that shows the total overreaction of politicians from many countries to this virus.
 

kristiang85

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Still though I guess the tinfoil hat brigade were pretty close to being correct on that one? I have seen this pop up every now and again but let me guess reality mid 2021?

type on search on twitter - vaccinepassport ... oh look what appears!
I must admit, it gets harder and harder to ignore the conspiracy theorists' less crazy utterances when their "predictions" actually do start happening in reality!

Another one from a few months ago is that a new virus called COVID-21 would be planned, plunging us into another year of lockdowns and vaccinations. Again I laughed at that, but with the new obsessions with benign variants you just don't know now...
 

DustyBin

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Only six months ago many of us on here were reasonably confident that vaccine passports or health passports wouldn’t become a reality.... Where this will end I have no idea, but I do think we’re entering a ‘new normal’ slowly but surely. I think if these restrictions/measures are introduced one at a time a lot of people will accept them without really noticing how far removed we are from this time last year; it’s ‘new normal’ by stealth.

Regarding international travel (more specifically air travel), I expect this to reduce significantly going forward. This may be a little too tinfoil hatty for some, but I find it hard to believe that we won’t be forced or coerced into adjusting our lifestyles permanently on the back of covid. I’ve said this for months now, but this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to combat man made climate change, in the west at least. And whilst I don’t subscribe to any conspiracy theories, certainly not in full anyway, I do believe that there may be some intertwining of agendas at this stage. I read an interesting interview with Neil Ferguson yesterday in which he expressed his shock at how we tolerated the early restrictions imposed upon us, going on to say how the public have, in effect, given the green light to greater state control over their lives. I’ll leave it there as I’m OT but 2021 could be an interesting year!

I must admit, it gets harder and harder to ignore the conspiracy theorists' less crazy utterances when their "predictions" actually do start happening in reality!

Another one from a few months ago is that a new virus called COVID-21 would be planned, plunging us into another year of lockdowns and vaccinations. Again I laughed at that, but with the new obsessions with benign variants you just don't know now...

Interestingly I was writing the above at the same time as you!


Edited to add the following which are examples of articles that make me slightly suspicious:


If the coronavirus pandemic doesn’t kill us, world leaders warned the United Nations this week, then the climate crisis is “environmental Armageddon".
The dire warning at the UN General Assembly came from leaders in all corners of the world: In island nations where they are at risk of being submerged by rising sea levels to central Africa where temperature increases are expected to be 1.5 times higher than the world average.


Humanity should sacrifice “personal freedom” just as many nations did during the Covid-19 pandemic in order to successfully fight climate change, a German MP has said, adding that there will “never” be a vaccine against CO2.
Germany had barely started its coronavirus vaccination campaign when a Social Democratic MP, Karl Lauterbach, warned that his compatriots need to brace themselves for yet another challenge: global warming.
“We need measures to deal with climate change that are similar to the restrictions on personal freedom [imposed] to combat the pandemic,”the professor of health economics and epidemiology at the University of Cologne wrote in a guest piece for Die Welt newspaper. He added that he hoped climate change issues would play “a dominant role”during the upcoming election campaign ahead of the federal ballot scheduled for September 2021.
 
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Reliablebeam

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I think it’s clear that, despite being blatant age-based discrimination and having a very negative effect on international tourism, the vaccine passport is definitely going to be a requirement for many (most?) countries soon.

Indeed I may have to get it done privately, but I’m annoyed that it’s happening in the first place. I always had a feeling it would though, I guess that’s my multiple country trip to Europe in summer off the cards though, again :(

I think there are members here a bit more clued up about vaccine science than I am, so I defer to them on this. But I suspect a lot will hinge on whether the vaccine has much of an effect on transmission. If it does, countries will probably be less fussy as they will have a high degree of immunity in their own population through their own programs. If it doesn't, then there will be much more caution, from the aspect of protecting their own populations and ensuring that visitors don't become a burden on their health systems.

I imagine economic reality will win out for a few countries, which will be very keen to see British tourists back and spending - you certainly saw that last summer! It would certainly be interesting if countries which have big anti-vax movements impose requirements on visitors to seem 'tough' - I'd watch the US in that regard..
 

yorksrob

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Only six months ago many of us on here were reasonably confident that vaccine passports or health passports wouldn’t become a reality.... Where this will end I have no idea, but I do think we’re entering a ‘new normal’ slowly but surely. I think if these restrictions/measures are introduced one at a time a lot of people will accept them without really noticing how far removed we are from this time last year; it’s ‘new normal’ by stealth.

Regarding international travel (more specifically air travel), I expect this to reduce significantly going forward. This may be a little too tinfoil hatty for some, but I find it hard to believe that we won’t be forced or coerced into adjusting our lifestyles permanently on the back of covid. I’ve said this for months now, but this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to combat man made climate change, in the west at least. And whilst I don’t subscribe to any conspiracy theories, certainly not in full anyway, I do believe that there may be some intertwining of agendas at this stage. I read an interesting interview with Neil Ferguson yesterday in which he expressed his shock at how we tolerated the early restrictions imposed upon us, going on to say how the public have, in effect, given the green light to greater state control over their lives. I’ll leave it there as I’m OT but 2021 could be an interesting year!



Interestingly I was writing the above at the same time as you!


Edited to add the following which are examples of articles that make me slightly suspicious:





It doesn't go into much detail, but it sounds like a fairly muddled argument.

There probably will need to be less international travel and a closer to home style of living to limit climate change, however most of the COVID restrictions are actually at odds with this aspiration, as to be content with less flying, people have to be able to enjoy themselves closer to home.

The article then seems to go into how lockdown will supposedly be needed throughout the vaccination programme, so perhaps the reporter is confusing this.
 
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Spain is setting up a vaccine register which will be shared internationally. People refusing the vaccine will be highlighted on it. Of course this will affect many thousands of Ex-Pats from across the EU. Other EU nations, particularly Italy and Portugal have expressed support for the idea and may well copy it.
 

nlogax

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Using the online vaccine date estimator I was amused to find myself about 39 millionth in line with an estimated jab date of June or July. If it is available privately sooner then I’ll go that route in order to get some travel plans started. However it’d be good to know if private insurance vaccine stocks aren’t taking away from stocks bound for the NHS. If they are then I’ll wait.
 

Darandio

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Using the online vaccine date estimator I was amused to find myself about 39 millionth in line with an estimated jab date of June or July. If it is available privately sooner then I’ll go that route in order to get some travel plans started. However it’d be good to know if private insurance vaccine stocks aren’t taking away from stocks bound for the NHS. If they are then I’ll wait.

But surely those stocks would already be taken away from the NHS supply anyway, even if you purchased one it wouldn't matter. Follow the government lead and look after yourself first and foremost, they certainly are.
 

Bantamzen

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Spain is setting up a vaccine register which will be shared internationally. People refusing the vaccine will be highlighted on it. Of course this will affect many thousands of Ex-Pats from across the EU. Other EU nations, particularly Italy and Portugal have expressed support for the idea and may well copy it.
And yet Spain does not plan to make the vaccine mandatory, so this is really just a piece of political gesturing & blackmail.
 
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