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Vaccine Progress, Approval, and Deployment

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kez19

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I must admit, it gets harder and harder to ignore the conspiracy theorists' less crazy utterances when their "predictions" actually do start happening in reality!

Another one from a few months ago is that a new virus called COVID-21 would be planned, plunging us into another year of lockdowns and vaccinations. Again I laughed at that, but with the new obsessions with benign variants you just don't know now...


Exactly! - that’s what threw me was that but Google it covid21 does appear (sure I quoted it somewhere on here)


Just to say since I work in care I got mines today seem fine but second one in few weeks time, whilst on a personal level I didn’t want it but felt I needed too for what I work in and family side of things
 
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And yet Spain does not plan to make the vaccine mandatory, so this is really just a piece of political gesturing & blackmail.
True, I don't think anywhere (China maybe?) made vaccination mandatory, but as to how they will encourage people to use it is up to them. By sharing it they are possibly hoping those who refuse it will be scared by the prospect of a vaccination passport. When I went to Bahrain in the 1970s I had to have proof of various vaccinations before passing through passport control, we may be going back to those days, but on a larger scale.
 

DustyBin

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It doesn't go into much detail, but it sounds like a fairly muddled argument.

There probably will need to be less international travel and a closer to home style of living to limit climate change, however most of the COVID restrictions are actually at odds with this aspiration, as to be content with less flying, people have to be able to enjoy themselves closer to home.

The article then seems to go into how lockdown will supposedly be needed throughout the vaccination programme, so perhaps the reporter is confusing this.

Reading it again I agree with you the argument isn’t entirely logical, but my interpretation of it is that covid will effectively end but some restrictions (or similar restrictions) should remain in place as climate change takes over as the main threat to humanity. As we’ve been conditioned to accept such restrictions I don’t think that’s too fanciful, although obviously it’s all speculation at this stage. It does worry me that all of this could be implemented outwith the normal democratic process, again there is now a precedent for acting for the ‘greater good’ in such a way.
 

Domh245

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I've seen it suggested that the Spanish list is more to do with the reason that people refuse the vaccine (as a statistical exercise, and presumably how to target an improved take up) than the "name and shame" approach that most headlines about the story suggest
 

Class 317

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Using the online vaccine date estimator I was amused to find myself about 39 millionth in line with an estimated jab date of June or July. If it is available privately sooner then I’ll go that route in order to get some travel plans started. However it’d be good to know if private insurance vaccine stocks aren’t taking away from stocks bound for the NHS. If they are then I’ll wait.
I doubt private vaccination will be available much before the end of next year. Initial stocks will be more likely NHS only.
 

Huntergreed

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I very much look forward to watching the government (Hancock or Shapps most likely) try to explain to young people that they can't go abroad because they've not been vaccinated from a virus which poses next to no risk to them and that their grandparents can because they're actively encouraging and enforcing ageist discrimination (and no, I don't think this is to achieve a 'legitimate aim', once the vulnerable are vaccinated, the risk is so minimal that it's hardly worth considering)
 

Yew

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I very much look forward to watching the government (Hancock or Shapps most likely) try to explain to young people that they can't go abroad because they've not been vaccinated from a virus which poses next to no risk to them and that their grandparents can because they're actively encouraging and enforcing ageist discrimination (and no, I don't think this is to achieve a 'legitimate aim', once the vulnerable are vaccinated, the risk is so minimal that it's hardly worth considering)
Agest discrimination only matters when you're discriminating against the elderly, as evidenced by the insane requirement that some stores require 'Think 25' validation to buy a can of redbull when there's no legal requirement for any age validation, never mind such an excessive limit.
 

packermac

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I very much look forward to watching the government (Hancock or Shapps most likely) try to explain to young people that they can't go abroad because they've not been vaccinated from a virus which poses next to no risk to them and that their grandparents can because they're actively encouraging and enforcing ageist discrimination (and no, I don't think this is to achieve a 'legitimate aim', once the vulnerable are vaccinated, the risk is so minimal that it's hardly worth considering)
If it is required by other countries then it will not be down to any UK politician to have to explain it to us. They would only have to explain it to non UK nationals who want to visit here.
 

matacaster

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I am surprised that with so few nurses and doctors available, no effort appears to have been made to give basic covid injection training to volunteers. They would still need a qualified person on hand, but rollulout would be much quicker. It's not rocket science, indeed many diabetes suffers etc self-inject.
 

Cdd89

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I doubt private vaccination will be available much before the end of next year. Initial stocks will be more likely NHS only.
A relative of mine who is highly connected with the rollout confidently predicted April as the date by which there’ll be enough surplus vaccine for private vaccination.
 

nlogax

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If it is required by other countries then it will not be down to any UK politician to have to explain it to us. They would only have to explain it to non UK nationals who want to visit here.
As the FCO has historically provided travel advice for pretty much all countries around the world from the UK traveler’s perspective, wouldn’t vaccination requirements for overseas entry also fall under this category? The NHS also provide a degree of country-specific guidance. Politicians will surely (as ever) point people in the direction of government websites to review this advice.

A relative of mine who is highly connected with the rollout confidently predicted April as the date by which there’ll be enough surplus vaccine for private vaccination.
Good to know. I do hope ‘surplus’ is truly that, falling outside of the stated number of doses procured for the NHS across the UK for each of the vaccines.
 

packermac

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As the FCO has historically provided travel advice for pretty much all countries around the world from the UK traveler’s perspective, wouldn’t vaccination requirements for overseas entry also fall under this category? The NHS also provide a degree of country-specific guidance. Politicians will surely (as ever) point people in the direction of government websites to review this advice.


Good to know. I do hope ‘surplus’ is truly that, falling outside of the stated number of doses procured for the NHS across the UK for each of the vaccines.
Yes but it is just advice as the FCO understand it and hence and comes with a caveat. The bolding is by me.
"
The information on this page covers the most common types of travel and reflects the UK government’s understanding of the rules currently in place. Unless otherwise stated, this information is for travellers using a full ‘British Citizen’ passport.

The authorities in the country or territory you’re travelling to are responsible for setting and enforcing the rules for entry."
 

35B

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I very much look forward to watching the government (Hancock or Shapps most likely) try to explain to young people that they can't go abroad because they've not been vaccinated from a virus which poses next to no risk to them and that their grandparents can because they're actively encouraging and enforcing ageist discrimination (and no, I don't think this is to achieve a 'legitimate aim', once the vulnerable are vaccinated, the risk is so minimal that it's hardly worth considering)
They may just mention the largely British partygoers who flouted restrictions in Sydney yesterday, who may just have helped queer the pitch for you and many others like you.
 

kez19

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I wonder if anyone can answer this question for me (its a long shot), I had my first shot today and expected another in a few weeks time - how am I meant to have "proof" on me that I have had it? (both)

I haven't seen anything be on UK or Scottish Government in terms of this (even tried a general google search and closest was CDC in the USA and on the info there they have an app!) - just seems like a blind alley! I have a book for next appointment and thats it but nothing has been said on if we have to download apps or have anything to say about it (I would have expected at appointment today at least a mention of something but other than another appointment)
 

RomeoCharlie71

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I wonder if anyone can answer this question for me (its a long shot), I had my first shot today and expected another in a few weeks time - how am I meant to have "proof" on me that I have had it? (both)
I think the only think you're supposed to get after your first jab is a card showing the date and time of your "booster"?
 

matt

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Great news to wake up to this morning


The coronavirus vaccine designed by scientists at the University of Oxford has been approved for use in the UK.

It marks a major turning point and will lead to a massive expansion in the UK's immunisation campaign, which is aimed at getting life back to normal.
 

21C101

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Agest discrimination only matters when you're discriminating against the elderly, as evidenced by the insane requirement that some stores require 'Think 25' validation to buy a can of redbull when there's no legal requirement for any age validation, never mind such an excessive limit.
Until some enterprising 19 year old wins a court case.....

True, I don't think anywhere (China maybe?) made vaccination mandatory, but as to how they will encourage people to use it is up to them. By sharing it they are possibly hoping those who refuse it will be scared by the prospect of a vaccination passport. When I went to Bahrain in the 1970s I had to have proof of various vaccinations before passing through passport control, we may be going back to those days, but on a larger scale.
Any attempt to coerce or name and shame will backfire badly.

The whole MMR fiasco would have been avoided had they just quietly made the single vaccines available as an option instead of monstering those with doubts.

Alas there seems to be a streak of severe authoritarianism pervading the health establishment which sees any dissent of any sort as a heresy to be suppressed at all costs, as can be seen by the way dissenting opinions agains the medical establishments covid orthodoxy are suppressed by social media, even when experts are quoting or discussing published papers.
 
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Spamcan81

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I very much look forward to watching the government (Hancock or Shapps most likely) try to explain to young people that they can't go abroad because they've not been vaccinated from a virus which poses next to no risk to them and that their grandparents can because they're actively encouraging and enforcing ageist discrimination (and no, I don't think this is to achieve a 'legitimate aim', once the vulnerable are vaccinated, the risk is so minimal that it's hardly worth considering)

It's not about whether the virus poses no risk to a younger age group or not but the fact they can spread it to others. We still have no long term evidence as to how long immunity lasts after vaccination so erring on the side of caution may be a good idea for the time being.
 

Bantamzen

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It's not about whether the virus poses no risk to a younger age group or not but the fact they can spread it to others. We still have no long term evidence as to how long immunity lasts after vaccination so erring on the side of caution may be a good idea for the time being.
But once the vaccine is given to those most at risk, they will be much less likely to be hospitalised eve if exposed to the virus. So we could, and should relax restrictions as those most at risk are given it.
 

yorkie

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It's not about whether the virus poses no risk to a younger age group or not but the fact they can spread it to others. We still have no long term evidence as to how long immunity lasts after vaccination so erring on the side of caution may be a good idea for the time being.
Actually there is evidence that people who had the original SARS virus still have long term immunity. Also people who had previous Coronavirus infections have long term immunity which can be effective against Sars-Cov-2.

I don't think it's right to say"no evidence" though it is correct to say we do not have definite knowledge of this.

I would encourage anyone who has the opportunity to receive the vaccine, to do so.

And, while immunity passports may happen, there is no chance of young people being excluded from activities just because they have not yet been given the opportunity to be vaccinated.

But once the vaccine is given to those most at risk, they will be much less likely to be hospitalised eve if exposed to the virus. So we could, and should relax restrictions as those most at risk are given it.
Absolutely and this will happen.
 
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kez19

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I think the only think you're supposed to get after your first jab is a card showing the date and time of your "booster"?


Next appointment is all I have in the book but how does the public provide proof? I was expecting a big hoo ha about it being on an app
 

Domh245

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The other thing that seems to have gone uncommented on here is the decision to prioritise the number of people getting a second dose over the number of people receiving both doses, indeed the planned schedule for the Ox/AZ vaccine is now a 3 month gap between jabs. This should really help make headway into driving down hospitalisations which is great news
 

hwl

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Absolutely and this will happen.
Gove has said it will happen progressively in response to data, there won't be a presumptive bonfire of restrictions based on the expectation of data improving. Some restrictions will remain until under 50 vaccination programme is well under way.
 

Domh245

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The government strategy of delayed second dose may reduce the vaccine effectiveness (no proper data) and hit the economy in the autumn and winter with higher case rates.

(quoting from this thread as the discussion here is more relevant)

There's no proper data on it, but if there was a high chance of it severely reducing the effectiveness, they wouldn't be doing it. Many other vaccines work on longer periods between Jabs, so it's not unreasonable to expect that these to be much different, and indeed Astrazeneca (which it turns out leaks like a sieve) has suggested that the efficacy of the vaccine on a longer time between doses is just as good if not better.

I've also seen it suggested that the reason all the vaccines approved so far have been on a 3 week between jabs basis has been because that's the absolute minimum that they can get away with. Given the race to develop, distribute and inject these into people, even waiting an extra week during each of the clinical trials could quite quickly put the whole thing behind by a month
 

hwl

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The other thing that seems to have gone uncommented on here is the decision to prioritise the number of people getting a second dose over the number of people receiving both doses, indeed the planned schedule for the Ox/AZ vaccine is now a 3 month gap between jabs. This should really help make headway into driving down hospitalisations which is great news
The Oxford / AZ stage 3 trial also included a third small sub group given two full doses at 8 weeks apart which showed better effectiveness (~+6%) that 2 full doses 4 weeks apart but still no where near as good as a half dose then full dose 4 weeks later.

They haven't said what dosing strategy they are going for yet hence it looks like full/full at 8+ weeks?

The Oxford /AZ vaccine was very good at reducing hospitalisation overall (better than Pfizer and equally as good as Moderna), with zero hospitalisations in the smallish full/full 8 week group in the period beyond 3 weeks after the first jab. Again much caution needed from small data set before extrapolating too much!
 

35B

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Until some enterprising 19 year old wins a court case.....


Any attempt to coerce or name and shame will backfire badly.

The whole MMR fiasco would have been avoided had they just quietly made the single vaccines available as an option instead of monstering those with doubts.

Alas there seems to be a streak of severe authoritarianism pervading the health establishment which sees any dissent of any sort as a heresy to be suppressed at all costs, as can be seen by the way dissenting opinions agains the medical establishments covid orthodoxy are suppressed by social media, even when experts are quoting or discussing published papers.
Just on a point of order, the MMR fiasco wouldn’t have happened if Andrew Wakefield hadn’t undertaken fraudulent, unethical, activity that he then wrote up and publicised hugely in support of his own patent for a single use measles vaccine. There was and is no credible evidence for his proposition, and it is testament to the irresponsible power of the press that the public remember “MMR” rather than the debunking of this fraudulent charlatan quack.

As for 19 year olds, I’m sure their time will come, but very much doubt they’d get anywhere near the courts should they sue on age grounds. But first let’s deal with the high priority recipients so that the public danger of Covid is reduced to manageable levels, before we then start looking at the “nice to have” stage of mass immunisation.

Post written by a 40-something adult without relevant health conditions, with teenage children who will be even lower down the priority list, and who may well therefore be disrupted by any requirements for vaccination before travel.
 

hwl

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(quoting from this thread as the discussion here is more relevant)

There's no proper data on it, but if there was a high chance of it severely reducing the effectiveness, they wouldn't be doing it. Many other vaccines work on longer periods between Jabs, so it's not unreasonable to expect that these to be much different, and indeed Astrazeneca (which it turns out leaks like a sieve) has suggested that the efficacy of the vaccine on a longer time between doses is just as good if not better.

I've also seen it suggested that the reason all the vaccines approved so far have been on a 3 week between jabs basis has been because that's the absolute minimum that they can get away with. Given the race to develop, distribute and inject these into people, even waiting an extra week during each of the clinical trials could quite quickly put the whole thing behind by a month
The latest analysis published last night suggests that older covid variants will be extinct by the end of Jan in the the UK (less than 0.1% of cases). Hence the goal posts may have moved a bit with effectiveness at reducing transmission potentially becoming more important with the new strain(s).

Hence the government betting on less effective overall strategy to enable quick roll out could result in much higher absences from work next Autumn/Winter due to the lower effectiveness. (Tortoise vs hare type discussion)

A lot depends on how effective the vaccines are at reducing transmission for which there is no data yet.

Edit to add: Finally a bit more info: Approval is for full / full vaccine doses at 4-12 week spacing.
 
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duncanp

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I very much look forward to watching the government (Hancock or Shapps most likely) try to explain to young people that they can't go abroad because they've not been vaccinated from a virus which poses next to no risk to them and that their grandparents can because they're actively encouraging and enforcing ageist discrimination (and no, I don't think this is to achieve a 'legitimate aim', once the vulnerable are vaccinated, the risk is so minimal that it's hardly worth considering)

I don't think the UK government will tell people who haven't been vaccinated that they can't go abroad, as it is up to other countries to decide who they will admit.

However it may happen that governments abroad will require proof of vaccination, proof of a negative COVID-19 test or testing on arrival as a condition of entry.

Perhaps larger airports and travel agents will offer "testing on departure" facilities, as is being set up at Heathrow.

Or a foreign government may say that anyone over the age of 50 requires proof of vaccination, and anyone under the age of 50 requires proof of a negative COVID-19 test.

One issue in all of this is how easy it will be to forge proof of vaccination, or proof of a negative test result.

No doubt a small cottage industry will arise to service people who can't or won't go through legitimate channels.
 

158756

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The other thing that seems to have gone uncommented on here is the decision to prioritise the number of people getting a second dose over the number of people receiving both doses, indeed the planned schedule for the Ox/AZ vaccine is now a 3 month gap between jabs. This should really help make headway into driving down hospitalisations which is great news

That depends on how effective the 3 month strategy actually is. There is as far as I am aware no published evidence to support this use of either vaccine. AstraZeneca leaks are not science. Of course we all hope the vaccines will end the current situation, but we need to be careful about what we actually expect to achieve. People have hooked on to the Pfizer and Moderna promises of 90%+ effective vaccines, but we are now mostly reliant on a vaccine found to be 62% effective in clinical trials (first dose alone effectiveness ???), and leaving people for three months with just the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine (52% effectiveness for the first dose, but wasn't tested for the full three months), with no evidence any of these figures hold up when the government has decided to invent it's own completely untested vaccination schedule.
 
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