It is fantastic news.
I just hope that the vaccination up take %rate continues at a high rate as Wembley move into the lower age groups. That is crucial to get the R rate down and get us out of lockdown.
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Vaccine Progress, Approval, and Deployment
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It is fantastic news.
I just hope that the vaccination up take %rate continues at a high rate as Wembley move into the lower age groups. That is crucial to get the R rate down and get us out of lockdown.
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brad465
Established Member
Why should the R rate matter when half the adult population, and not far off half the whole population now have at least one dose that's been shown to be highly effective against serious illness, especially with 5-9 nearly done and in doing so all the most vulnerable to death and/or hospitalisation? I'm not suggesting younger groups don't take it when offered but we don't vaccinate the entire flu population every year in an attempt to stop it spreading because it's neither feasible nor completely necessary.
I wonder at what point we de-prioritise the low hanging fruit (i.e. 45-55 year olds putting themselves forward), and desperately nag those in the higher age groups to get jabbed; perhaps we have already? In terms of effort-reward you need to jab 16 45-50yos to reap the same hospitalisation benefits as one 70yo.
So the data isn't easy to compare, but I think we had the highest number of vaccines given yesterday!
First Dose: 528k
Second Dose: 132k
Total doses given: 660k
Even better on Friday!
First Dose: 590k (second highest ever!)
Second Dose: 121k
Total doses given: 711k
Well done if anyone here is involved and helped achieve these great figures (its the only think that has kept some form of positivity for some of us!)
Just in:
As for the shortage of supplies of the AZ vaccine from India, it turns out the root cause may be due to a shortage of raw materials from the US:
Dr John Campbell has stated that there are suggestions that these vaccine components could have been locally produced in India but can't be, because US companies have not made the information available in the public domain, though I cannot find an original source for this.
And in other news, there is some speculation that the reason the AZ vaccine might not be as effective against the South African variant could be because it is not a prefusion vaccine.
blogs.sciencemag.org
That said, the effectiveness of the vaccines against variants which include the E484K mutation, are not diminished when measured against severe disease and hospitalisations; it's just that people are more likely to get mild illness when encountering these variants. However some so-called "experts" are desperately trying to scare people into believing the vaccines are not effective. To be clear: they are only "not effective" when measuring effectiveness against mild illness, but who really cares about that, when the aim is to keep people from being seriously ill?
It does frustrate me that the excellent work of vaccine produces is undermined by simpletons such as Andrew Hayward from Sage:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56467813
How can it be that I, as a layperson who has simply listened to various podcasts made by experts, understand this better than someone who is on Sage?! Why are people on Sage allowed to spread a misleading anti-vax message? I find this to be deeply concerning.
On the subject of variants and modifications to vaccines, it is certainly the case that a booster could be made available in the Autumn if required. I am not convinced that it will be required though, as we still have good effectiveness against severe disease even with the variants, but time will tell. I don't think it is anything to be concerned about; we'll do it if we need to do it, but it may be the case that we don't.
Covid-19: Record day for UK with 711,156 vaccinations given
More than 26.8 million first and 2.1 million second doses have now been given in the UK since December.
www.bbc.co.uk
This is great news, and shows just how great the capacity is, when the supplies are available.
As for the shortage of supplies of the AZ vaccine from India, it turns out the root cause may be due to a shortage of raw materials from the US:
Covid-19: How India missed its vaccination target
India is lagging behind in its vaccine target as demand falls.
www.bbc.co.uk
Dr John Campbell has stated that there are suggestions that these vaccine components could have been locally produced in India but can't be, because US companies have not made the information available in the public domain, though I cannot find an original source for this.
And in other news, there is some speculation that the reason the AZ vaccine might not be as effective against the South African variant could be because it is not a prefusion vaccine.
Science | AAAS
I understand the Oxford team are working on a version of the vaccine that is modified to target the mutations, such as E484K, which occurred independently in both the Brazil and SA variants, but it's not clear to me whether the modifications to the vaccine include making this specific change or not. If anyone knows the answer to this, I'd be interested to hear it.
That said, the effectiveness of the vaccines against variants which include the E484K mutation, are not diminished when measured against severe disease and hospitalisations; it's just that people are more likely to get mild illness when encountering these variants. However some so-called "experts" are desperately trying to scare people into believing the vaccines are not effective. To be clear: they are only "not effective" when measuring effectiveness against mild illness, but who really cares about that, when the aim is to keep people from being seriously ill?
It does frustrate me that the excellent work of vaccine produces is undermined by simpletons such as Andrew Hayward from Sage:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56467813
This is completely false messaging; I'd argue it's anti-vax messaging and is dangerous. The vaccine effectiveness is NOT low, given the aim of any vaccine is to prevent serious illness, and the vaccines do achieve that!
How can it be that I, as a layperson who has simply listened to various podcasts made by experts, understand this better than someone who is on Sage?! Why are people on Sage allowed to spread a misleading anti-vax message? I find this to be deeply concerning.
On the subject of variants and modifications to vaccines, it is certainly the case that a booster could be made available in the Autumn if required. I am not convinced that it will be required though, as we still have good effectiveness against severe disease even with the variants, but time will tell. I don't think it is anything to be concerned about; we'll do it if we need to do it, but it may be the case that we don't.
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The unconstrained R rate of the virus that causes COVID is about 3; currently the rate in this country is 0.7-0.9 because of lockdown and the vaccinations done to date. If the R rate is above 1, the virus spreads, and indiscriminately. As well as stopping you getting ill, the vaccine reduces transmission - stats vary, but 60% reduction seems to be what most studies suggest. Therefore when everyone has had both vaccines, the R rate will drop to (very broadly) about 1-1.2 if there were no restrictions. During the vaccination programme the theoretical unconstrained R rate will be steadily reducing from 3 to 1-1.2, reaching the latter when everyone is done. I have no idea what it is now with 40% of the population having had a first dose, and 3% a second, but it will probably be somewhere around 2. With R=2 that means the virus would still spread rather quickly if all restrictions came off now. Of course, a significant majority of those who have been vaccinated won’t get ill. But not everyone.
Whilst the take up rate for the top 9 groups is good, not everyone has had the vaccine, and it won’t work for everyone. Even if, very optimistically, 95% of the top 9 groups takes the vaccine and it is 95% effective at stopping you from getting ill, that still leaves 90% of the top 9 group vulnerable. That’s about 3m ‘vulnerable’ people still at risk of catching the virus, of whom roughly 5-10% will end up in hospital.
Therefore the current R rate is still important, as when modelled against the latest vaccine figures (each day), that shows the unconstrained R. And we want that unconstrained R to be as low as possible, and preferably near to 1, with a low rate of infections, when all restrictions are off. Even then, it’s a racing certainty there will continue to be infections and hospitalisations of that top 9 group. But with low R and a low infection starting point, it will be manageable.
Personally I think the nagging of the older age groups should start now (if it hasn’t already!)
HSTEd
Veteran Member
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Supposedly at reasonable takeup and efficacy rates, the vaccine reduces hospitalisation per case by 80% once 1-9 are covered.
If this is true, then we would have to have a detected case rate breaching 300,000 per day to achieve a hospitalisation level comparable to the last wave.
Such a wave could not be sustained for very long simply because it is infecting too many people, the assumptions on exponential growth will start to break down rather rapidly.
If R only rises to <1.5 due to some restrictions remaining im not sure such a wave can ever be created.
If this is true, then we would have to have a detected case rate breaching 300,000 per day to achieve a hospitalisation level comparable to the last wave.
Such a wave could not be sustained for very long simply because it is infecting too many people, the assumptions on exponential growth will start to break down rather rapidly.
If R only rises to <1.5 due to some restrictions remaining im not sure such a wave can ever be created.
Indeed; even if the R value increased massively, we'd not see that many hospitalisations, due to the high priority groups already having been vaccinated.
As the proportion of people with immunity is constantly increasing, the potential for the R value to increase to a high level is rapidly diminishing anyway.
Dr John Cambell said this back on 22nd February when the plans for easing restrictions were announced:
The doom-mongers will not admit this though; they tend to point to "variants" as a reason to keep tight restrictions, and hope that people are ignorant to the fact that variants do not actually cause people with immunity to become seriously ill. They instead will harp on about the fact that people with immunity can become mildly ill, which really isn't that much of a concern.
People like Andrew Hayward presumably don't want people to do their research; they reply on the media giving them a platform without questioning it and hoping that people are fooled. Don't be fooled by doom-mongers; I do not care if they have "Dr" in their title or loads of letters after their names; people with high qualifications can still be disingenuous and misleading in order to further their own agendas.
The vaccines are highly effective where it counts. I also encourage anyone reading this to spread the word to family & friends not to believe those spreading mistruths about vaccine effectiveness. I hope that the mainstream media stops giving people like Andrew Hayward a platform but of course they won't do that, as doom mongering is highly newsworthy.
As the proportion of people with immunity is constantly increasing, the potential for the R value to increase to a high level is rapidly diminishing anyway.
Dr John Cambell said this back on 22nd February when the plans for easing restrictions were announced:
The doom-mongers will not admit this though; they tend to point to "variants" as a reason to keep tight restrictions, and hope that people are ignorant to the fact that variants do not actually cause people with immunity to become seriously ill. They instead will harp on about the fact that people with immunity can become mildly ill, which really isn't that much of a concern.
People like Andrew Hayward presumably don't want people to do their research; they reply on the media giving them a platform without questioning it and hoping that people are fooled. Don't be fooled by doom-mongers; I do not care if they have "Dr" in their title or loads of letters after their names; people with high qualifications can still be disingenuous and misleading in order to further their own agendas.
The vaccines are highly effective where it counts. I also encourage anyone reading this to spread the word to family & friends not to believe those spreading mistruths about vaccine effectiveness. I hope that the mainstream media stops giving people like Andrew Hayward a platform but of course they won't do that, as doom mongering is highly newsworthy.
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Even with the expected reduction in supply from India in April, the vaccination program is going so well that we could still give 100% of adults their first dose by the third week in June, which is around the time all restrictions on social contact (in England) are due to be lifted.
If Mrs Ursula Fond Of Lying throws her toys out of the pram and imposes an export ban on the Astra Zeneca vaccine, this would cut our supply of vaccine by a further 20%, but this would only push the completion date of the vaccination program (by which I mean giving 100% of adults their first dose) back by a couple of weeks, to the first or second week of July.
By then we should have had supplies of the Moderna vaccine as well, so we will be able to continue giving second doses to those who need them within the appropriate time interval.
If Mrs Ursula Fond Of Lying throws her toys out of the pram and imposes an export ban on the Astra Zeneca vaccine, this would cut our supply of vaccine by a further 20%, but this would only push the completion date of the vaccination program (by which I mean giving 100% of adults their first dose) back by a couple of weeks, to the first or second week of July.
By then we should have had supplies of the Moderna vaccine as well, so we will be able to continue giving second doses to those who need them within the appropriate time interval.
Any chance of a link & quote please?
Is the one that was due for completion in 2022 and brought forward? If so, it's a lot more than a manufacturing plant
Edit: is this what you are referring to?
Delivering a billion doses with the UK VMIC - Pharma Technology Focus | Issue 103 | February 2021
With multiple Covid-19 vaccines close to approval, the spotlight is on the logistics of delivering these vaccines to billions of people globally.
pharma.nridigital.com
The project commenced in 2018, was due for completion in 2022 but this has been brought forward to 2021 due to the current pandemic
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Any chance of a link & quote please?
Is the one that was due for completion in 2022 and brought forward? If so, it's a lot more than a manufacturing plant
Edit: is this what you are referring to?
Delivering a billion doses with the UK VMIC - Pharma Technology Focus | Issue 103 | February 2021
With multiple Covid-19 vaccines close to approval, the spotlight is on the logistics of delivering these vaccines to billions of people globally.
The project commenced in 2018, was due for completion in 2022 but this has been brought forward to 2021 due to the current pandemic
Possibly. The BBC did its usual thing of announcing it in the bulletin but not updating the website.
Any even better for Saturday! Will we reach 1m doses in a day before the expected slow down?
First Dose: 752k
Second Dose: 92k
Total doses given: 844k
Those are my sort of numbers!
brad465
Established Member
Going by the pattern so far since the rollout began, if we do reach 1m a day it would likely be this Friday or Saturday coming, but after that might be too late for that number.
778
Member
Have the second doses for the oxford vaccine started yet?
The Grauniad seems to be attempting to set the narrative that, if the EU bans exports of vaccines, this would force the government’s hand and make them extend the lockdown by TWO MONTHS.
Given that by now, already, the most vulnerable have had their first dose by several weeks now, and the delay won’t affect the first dose for the over 50s (which makes up 99% of hospitalisations), then WHY would lockdown have to be extended?
Given that by now, already, the most vulnerable have had their first dose by several weeks now, and the delay won’t affect the first dose for the over 50s (which makes up 99% of hospitalisations), then WHY would lockdown have to be extended?
nlogax
Established Member
They started a while ago.
kristiang85
Established Member
- Joined
- 23 Jan 2018
- Messages
- 2,657
Hopefully the government will laugh the suggestion off.
But it is worrying how many quarters now seem to consider lockdowns as normal and easy to consider, when they should be a one-in-a-lifetime absolutely exceptional measure.
It feels like I've lived three lifetimes...
Hawkwood Junc
Member
This is absolutely the most concerning thing about all of this. The ease of which the general population will think that lockdowns are remotely normal and not an extreme response. People have lost the ability to think vaguely critically for themselves, waiting for the next instruction and going out to worship at the altar of OUR NHS. Vaccination is surely the most sensible way out of this. It worries me that before long the medical panickers will start digging at other illnesses that exist at a low level and we have vaccinations for and try to implement more draconian restrictions surrounding them. Mumps outbreak in a school - lock down the borough for 2 weeks!
I'm not a technophobe, but some of the technological progress has had a real negative impact on some elements of every day lives. The idea that you can sit and binge watch TV series via Netflix etc, do an exercise class in your lounge just talking to people through a screen almost seems to have put people off actual interaction with others/make them view it as unecessary. I prefer to exercise in a gym as there's specialist equipment and it's a change of scene. I prefer to work from my office a few days a week as I like separating my work and my home life. I like watching TV but I'd much rather meet friends rather than do another flippin Zoom quiz.
I'm also probably biased as I'm a big cricket and rugby fan and love going to the games with friends and family. The atmosphere of anything from a county game with a few hundred people to Finals Day at Edgbaston or a 6 nations game at Twickenham is something I absolutely love and you're never going to replicate that with empty grounds watching it on TV. I just hope there's enough like minded souls that want to go back as soon as we're able to!
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Good news:
Let's not forget, it is how effective it is against serious illness, that really matters. And in the trial it was 100%.
That is an exceptionally high figure; far better than the influenza vaccines achieve
Covid vaccine: US trial of AstraZeneca jab confirms safety
Regulators in America have been waiting for these results to decide on approval.
www.bbc.co.uk
Let's not forget, it is how effective it is against serious illness, that really matters. And in the trial it was 100%.
That is an exceptionally high figure; far better than the influenza vaccines achieve
nlogax
Established Member
I'm a tad bemused by the US approach to winning over those reluctant to receive vaccinations.
https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1374005427596312580
Why risk Covid when you could risk diabetes instead?
https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1374005427596312580
Why risk Covid when you could risk diabetes instead?
kristiang85
Established Member
- Joined
- 23 Jan 2018
- Messages
- 2,657
Then they'll get a free doughnut for their insulin injections!
My local council (Rugby) have tweeted today that anyone over 50 who has not had a 1st dose can turn up from tomorrow to Friday without an appointment. That suggests that is still plenty of doses available, at least for the over 50s.
My GP (covering Wilmslow, Alderley Edge, Handforth and Chelford) is going to deliver second doses this week of the Pfizer vaccine to those given their first dose on 9 and 11 January. In terms of first doses they're currently vaccinating those aged 55 and over. They expect to receive 1200 doses of the Pfizer vaccine and 800 doses of the Astra Zeneca vaccine this week.
I've seen of people in their 30s and 40s being texted by GPs to pick-up cancellation appointments. Presumably if you've got the Pfizer vaccine at a GP's surgery you just need to get it into someone, anyone's arm before it goes off.
The 'natural' slow-down during April might provide an opportunity to go back to the over 60s who for whatever reason haven't taken a jab and try and get them booked in for when supplies build up again.
Either vaccine once out of the fridge and first opened has a shelf life of a couple of hours. Each Pfizer vial has 5/6 doses, and each AZ vial 8/9, depending on having the right equipment and skilled 'drawer-upper'. Pfizer will last 5 days in a fridge, so it'd take some pretty spectacularly poor planning for it to 'go off' en masse
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