Wales & Borders Franchise Consultation

[LNW-GW Joint]

'Priorities' like what? There will be no immediate solutions available to overcrowding and ageing trains next October, apart from the new franchise scraping together any spare 143/144/153s that no-one wants.

Yes indeed, but upgrading trains will be secondary to getting some (any) in the first place.
PRM mods will also take priority over "comfort" things.
Some 67+ ex-GWR Mk3 sets might work initially.

 

[pemma]

'Priorities' like what? There will be no immediate solutions available to overcrowding and ageing trains next October, apart from the new franchise scraping together any spare 143/144/153s that no-one wants.

The following are off-lease by the end of 2019*:
- 5 x Scotrail 156s (Scotrail should be releasing 10 x 156s with 5 being secured by Northern.)
- 9 x Anglia 156s
- 8 x 3 car 170s and 3 x 2 car 170s from Anglia (with the last one to be released after the Dec 2019 deadline)
- 8 x 2 car 172s from LO

However, the problem is that's a bit of mixture and I imagine unless EMT and LM get new self-powered trains, they'd like the above to replace their 153s and for extra capacity.

22 x 185s will be made available in 2020 but to use those to replace non-compliant stock would require the SoS to grant an exemption order to keep the non-compliant in service longer.

* Unless it's a very short franchise, by the end of 2019 is really early on in the next franchise and if they secured the Scotrail 156s they could be introduced almost as soon as the franchise starts.

 

[gareth950]

Yes indeed, but upgrading trains will be secondary to getting some (any) in the first place.
PRM mods will also take priority over "comfort" things.
Some 67+ ex-GWR Mk3 sets might work initially.

PRM mods ready for 1/1/2020 will involve the entire Welsh 150/2 and 158 fleet being taken away in 2019 to be worked on. What will cover for the shortage of trains this will result in? Bear in mind nothing over 20m can operate on the Treherbert/Merthyr/Aberdare lines.
Mk3 sets are a good idea, but again, these will need power doors fitted.

It will be a challenging first few years for the new operator to say the least.

 

[Rhydgaled]

It will take at least 5 years to electrify/convert the valley lines, unless the network is completely shut down for a year or two, resulting in gridlock on Cardiff's roads in the meantime.

How long would it take if they closed it in sections? For example, close Queen Street - Radyr for x number of weeks/months while trains are diverted via Fairwater then the Fairwater route for a while etc. ?

'Priorities' like what? There will be no immediate solutions available to overcrowding and ageing trains next October, apart from the new franchise scraping together any spare 143/144/153s that no-one wants.

By next October, the London Overground 172s should be available. They wouldn't be able to enter service until December 2018 at the earliest I suppose because staff would need trainning but presumably the fitting of toilets can be done by October 2018 if the franchise is awarded in Jan/Feb 2018 and the winning bidder signs a lease deal immediately. The 8 class 172s could perhaps cover 6 diagrams, which would allow the franchisee to release 6 150s (two for PRM mods and four for the promised December 2018 Liverpool-Chester Halton curve service). It would also raise the quality of stock on the Cardiff-Cheltenham route, assuming that's where the 172s would be used.

I imagine unless EMT and LM get new self-powered trains, they'd like the above to replace their 153s and for extra capacity.

That depends on what stock the franchise ITT documents allow. My interpretation of the London Midland ITT is that no cascaded DMUs from other TOCs are allowed, only EMUs, locos, hauled stock and new units (which I expect could include 230s). We should find out soon with the winning bidder announcment for LM now due.

I wonder if the WAG will give bidders freedom to lease anything coming off-lease or if DfT will require a similar clause that the new W&B leaves DMUs available for EMT. Otherwise, given that award of W&B and EMT franchises now falls due around the same time (Jan/Feb 2018), we could have a suituation where both franchises are bidding to lease the same units.

22 x 185s will be made available in 2020 but to use those to replace non-compliant stock would require the SoS to grant an exemption order to keep the non-compliant in service longer.

if they secured the Scotrail 156s they could be introduced almost as soon as the franchise starts.

Are they similar enough to 150s and 153s that staff trainning would not be required?

PRM mods ready for 1/1/2020 will involve the entire Welsh 150/2 and 158 fleet being taken away in 2019 to be worked on. What will cover for the shortage of trains this will result in? Bear in mind nothing over 20m can operate on the Treherbert/Merthyr/Aberdare lines.
Mk3 sets are a good idea, but again, these will need power doors fitted.

It will be a challenging first few years for the new operator to say the least.

Thankfully the 158s probably don't require all that much work, given that BR built them with accessible toilets. Even then, 'challenging' could be an understatement if full compliance for the entire fleet by 1st Jan 2020 is insisted upon. Without a derrogation for the mark 3 fleet (until mark 4s or new-build long-distance units are available) and at least half the 150s the quality level of the franchise will fall considerably short of expectations. Unless power doors can be fitted to mark 3s really quicky, there is nothing of comparable quality available by 2020 unless a batch of mark 5s can be delivered in time (a now almost vanishingly small prospect). As for 150s, unless they are planning to electrify the ValleyLines at snails pace using only overnight clousures the franchise is eventually not going to have enough work for the full fleet of 36 units. A shorter lease on some of the 150s (allowing withdrawal once the wires are up) might only be acceptable to ROSCOs if they can get a derrogation to avoid the need for PRM mods.

 

[pemma]

Are they similar enough to 150s and 153s that staff trainning would not be required?

No but I imagine if crews already have 150s, 153s and 158s on their cards then it should be a relatively quick process for them to learn 156s.

 

[Rhydgaled]

No but I imagine if crews already have 150s, 153s and 158s on their cards then it should be a relatively quick process for them to learn 156s.

How quick? ScotRail's 156s are due off lease in December 2018, so presumably they would miss the December 2018 timetable change and have to wait until May 2019?

 

[pemma]

How quick? ScotRail's 156s are due off lease in December 2018, so presumably they would miss the December 2018 timetable change and have to wait until May 2019?

It wouldn't have to wait until the following timetable change - as they are 75mph Sprinters they can easily be used in lieu of 153s to the same timings without waiting for a timetable change. Although, using them in lieu of 150s on Valley Lines might cause some issues if the dwell times aren't generous due to 156s having single doors.

Point to consider - if train classes could only be swapped at timetable change dates it would mean trains would have to spend 6 months not in passenger service when transferring between operators.

 

[gareth950]

It wouldn't have to wait until the following timetable change - as they are 75mph Sprinters they can easily be used in lieu of 153s to the same timings without waiting for a timetable change. Although, using them in lieu of 150s on Valley Lines might cause some issues if the dwell times aren't generous due to 156s having single doors.

Point to consider - if train classes could only be swapped at timetable change dates it would mean trains would have to spend 6 months not in passenger service when transferring between operators.

156s and 172s couldn't operate north of Radyr as they are over 20m long. Very annoying.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Ken Skates on TV today saying they have told bidders that WG 'expects to see significant improvements in rolling stock very early on in the next franchise' here and also mentioned on BBC Wales in the Assembly report that Wales needs a 'green' railway.

How's that going to happen then Mr. Skates when:

• It takes 3 - 4 years to order, build and design new trains (let alone any fancy bespoke trams or tram-trains for the valleys)
  
• It will take at least 5 years to electrify/convert the valley lines, unless the network is completely shut down for a year or two, resulting in gridlock on Cardiff's roads in the meantime.
  
• There are no DMU's going spare in the UK anywhere
  
• The only extra DMU options are D-trains or converted 319s/455s, and these are not any younger than ATWs current stock and won't offer any improvements over the refreshed ATW 150/2 interiors that are demanded. Again, orders need to be placed for these trains and this can't be done until the franchise is awarded.
  
• The Welsh Govt's failiure to take any action, either by lobbying the DfT or providing funding directly to upgrade the current ATW fleet ready for 2020 means Wales will be the only part of the UK in January 2020 without disability compliant trains.
  
• Only committing to electrifying the valley lines north of Queen St in the 'Metro' area isn't exactly providing Wales with a 'green' railway is it?

I don't know whether to feel :cry: or :-x or even on WG's behalf.

Well true to forM Welsh Labour setting the scene to pass the buck to the new operator that hasn't been appointed yet. It's always the other boys fault down in Cardiff Bay. Welsh Government has had years of notice for this as the current franchises inherent faults were obvious from day one. They wanted the powers over the new franchise and whined and mewed for them.

 

[gareth950]

Well true to forM Welsh Labour setting the scene to pass the buck to the new operator that hasn't been appointed yet. It's always the other boys fault down in Cardiff Bay. Welsh Government has had years of notice for this as the current franchises inherent faults were obvious from day one. They wanted the powers over the new franchise and whined and mewed for them.

This report suggests it's not all entirely the Welsh Govt's fault however, in particular these few paragraphs regarding rolling stock and PRM 2020 mods:

Whitehall dismisses plans for further rail devolution to Wales

Another key recommendation that was rejected [by the DfT] included a request for Welsh rolling stock, which has an average age of 27 years and holds some trains which are 40 years old, to be refurbished and have greater accessibility options added.

“Our policy is that it is for bidders of the next Wales and Borders franchise to propose rolling stock solutions including any attempt to ‘tag’ a new order on to an existing procurement of trains,” central government responded.

It also added that rolling stock was a matter that central government would not interfere with, saying: “The government policy is that rolling stock procurement should, in most cases, be market-led because competition delivers value for money as it gives bidders more choice around the fleet that they wish to operate.”

That's a typical Tory led DfT response, market-led, competition guff etc. So Welsh Govt is not entirely to blame for the rolling stock crisis facing Wales. I was also astonished to learn yesterday on the news that the necessary powers to award the new franchise have still not been devolved from Westminster to Cardiff Bay! It's not like the clock is ticking or anything.

 

[PHILIPE]

No but I imagine if crews already have 150s, 153s and 158s on their cards then it should be a relatively quick process for them to learn 156s.

They converted from 150s over a weekend at Cardiff in 1988 when the 155 fleet was grounded and when a batch of new 156s en route from Works to Scotland were diverted to cover Cardiff Portsmouths.

 

[Rhydgaled]

It wouldn't have to wait until the following timetable change - as they are 75mph Sprinters they can easily be used in lieu of 153s to the same timings without waiting for a timetable change. Although, using them in lieu of 150s on Valley Lines might cause some issues if the dwell times aren't generous due to 156s having single doors.

Point to consider - if train classes could only be swapped at timetable change dates it would mean trains would have to spend 6 months not in passenger service when transferring between operators.

Good point, but while it is possible to bring cascaded/new stock into service between timetable changes, any additional services (eg. the supposed Dec 2018 Halton chord service) would mean changing the timetable.

They converted from 150s over a weekend at Cardiff in 1988 when the 155 fleet was grounded and when a batch of new 156s en route from Works to Scotland were diverted to cover Cardiff Portsmouths.

If it can be done in a weekend that's great. Fingers crossed for those 156s from ScotRail to enter service with W&B in December 2018 then.

156s and 172s couldn't operate north of Radyr as they are over 20m long. Very annoying.

Not all that annoying since it makes more sense to get class 150s off longer journies than replacing them on the ValleyLines anyway. I assume the majority of journeys made on the ValleyLines are to/from Cardiff, meaning few will be on the train for more than an hour. The Heart Of Wales Line on the other hand is a rather long journey for passengers to endure a 150 and such services should be first in line for 156s (if the 172s did come to the franchise, Cardiff-Cheltenham seems to be the obvious one as it is a longer journey than the ValleyLines but is a secondary stopping service rather than the principle fast so the door layout of the 172s would be appropriate*).

* the principle fast service is of course the XC Cardiff-Nottingham service, which really ought to have a better standard of stock (with end doors, like a 175 or 158 but there are of course not enough of those in existance).

 

[tomuk]

Assuming no derogations, no growth and PRM work can be carried out on 158s and 150/2s.

I think as a bare minimum we need

30x 20m DMU ie 150s (replace Pacers)

6x 23m DMU ie 158s (replace Mk3s)

To get these 170s and 156s ex Anglia and Scotrail to Northern and 150s and 158s to ATW.

How this can happen when the Northern franchise is already let and the Wales one isn't let who knows.:cry:

 

[Rhydgaled]

Assuming no derogations, no growth and PRM work can be carried out on 158s and 150/2s.

Even if, god forbid, the new franchise wishes to retain the entire 150/2 fleet long-term and sends them for mods it might not be possible to get all 36 units done in a year, without sending a large number of them away all at once.

I think as a bare minimum we need

30x 20m DMU ie 150s (replace Pacers)

6x 23m DMU ie 158s (replace Mk3s)

You forgot the 153s. As for the Pacers, a fair few of them are diagramed to run in pairs. If there are enough pairs of Pacers, the fleet could perhaps instead be replaced by 20x 4-car 20m EDMUs (ie. class 769 a.k.a. 319 flex). The June 2017 Modern Railways says that Brush should be able to produce a '769 every two weeks. Assuming contract award in Jan/Feb 2018 and build starting 5th March 2018 that's more than enough time to get 20 units out by 5th May 2019 (that's 65 weeks if I've counted correctly). They would also be able to make use of electrification when it finally happens. The only problem is that the 769s are intended as a bi-mode, but would be running as straight-diesels for a while waiting for the wires. How many miles do ValleyLines diagrams do between refuelling?

How this can happen when the Northern franchise is already let and the Wales one isn't let who knows.:cry:

Now that the SWT franchise contest is over, we know that no TOC will be releasing any class 158s by 2020. That means there are only three relatively sound options for the W&B mark 3 fleet:

1. Replacement by significantly inferior rolling stock
2. Use significantly inferior rolling stock to cover some 158/175 work allowing 158s/175s to cover the mark 3 diagrams
3. A TSI-PRM derrogation until mark 4s or new-build long-distance units are available

In addition, there are two further possibilities that might not be possible in the timeframe:

• Aquire alternative mark 3s and get them fitted with power doors, then swap them with the current slam-door ones
• Order a batch of mark 5 coaches tagged onto the TPE order

 

[PHILIPE]

I now refuse to speculate about future stock as there are so many ifs and buts, things slipping, will PRM Mods be done, so many rumours. I'm not going to actually believe anything until I see it.

 

[gareth950]

I now refuse to speculate about future stock as there are so many ifs and buts, things slipping, will PRM Mods be done, so many rumours. I'm not going to actually believe anything until I see it.

Best close this thread down until next January then!

 

[Envoy]

All this speculation! What we really don’t know is what the 4 contenders for the franchise have proposed as it has all been kept secret. A pity that this is not out in the public domain where it would generate discussion prior to any decision being made.

Could Ken Skates be waiting to see how this Sheffield Tram-train shapes up? If they could get rid of ‘normal’ rail on the valleys, they could sack all the highly paid drivers and just have one man operation on tram driver wages. Goodness knows how such vehicles would shape up as the valleys network is not exactly very short distances.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

All this speculation! What we really don’t know is what the 4 contenders for the franchise have proposed as it has all been kept secret. A pity that this is not out in the public domain where it would generate discussion prior to any decision being made.

Could Ken Skates be waiting to see how this Sheffield Tram-train shapes up? If they could get rid of ‘normal’ rail on the valleys, they could sack all the highly paid drivers and just have one man operation on tram driver wages. Goodness knows how such vehicles would shape up as the valleys network is not exactly very short distances.

The thing is, the deal being done is not just the franchise, it's for a "partner" for WG to develop the Metro/franchise together.
When a winner is announced, I don't believe it will be a clear cut "get on with it" like it is with DfT franchises, with rolling stock orders following fairly quickly.
The WG will probably still continue playing its cards close to its chest, and drip-feed decisions as they are made.
There is also nothing to stop WG making decisions now on services post-Oct 2018.

 

[gareth950]

All this speculation! What we really don’t know is what the 4 contenders for the franchise have proposed as it has all been kept secret. A pity that this is not out in the public domain where it would generate discussion prior to any decision being made.

Could Ken Skates be waiting to see how this Sheffield Tram-train shapes up? If they could get rid of ‘normal’ rail on the valleys, they could sack all the highly paid drivers and just have one man operation on tram driver wages. Goodness knows how such vehicles would shape up as the valleys network is not exactly very short distances.

Sheffield's Tram-Trains aren't due to begin operating in passenger service until next summer, by which time the W&B franchise will have been awarded (in theory). I don't see the point of Trams or Tram-Trains operating on an entirely heavy rail network with no street running.

If they could get rid of ‘normal’ rail on the valleys, they could sack all the highly paid drivers and just have one man operation on tram driver wages.

This would involve an almighty showdown with the unions at the very start of the shiny new, fantastic, monumental franchise, which I doubt very much the Labour Welsh Govt would want.

 

[PHILIPE]

Best close this thread down until next January then!

Only the traction cascades I'm not speculating on

 

[pemma]

Good point, but while it is possible to bring cascaded/new stock into service between timetable changes, any additional services (eg. the supposed Dec 2018 Halton chord service) would mean changing the timetable.

There is a possible workaround for that i.e. get the paths allocated from December but don't start running the service straight away. Virgin used that approach at the December 2008 timetable change with the Chester to Euston services. Although, if W&B wanted to do a recast of North Wales services in May 2019 I imagine they wouldn't use that approach to reduce the number of changes.

 

[pemma]

Assuming no derogations, no growth and PRM work can be carried out on 158s and 150/2s.

I think as a bare minimum we need

30x 20m DMU ie 150s (replace Pacers)

6x 23m DMU ie 158s (replace Mk3s)

To get these 170s and 156s ex Anglia and Scotrail to Northern and 150s and 158s to ATW.

How this can happen when the Northern franchise is already let and the Wales one isn't let who knows.:cry:

Northern have leased the 150s and 158s (including the additional ones arriving) until 2025 but that doesn't rule out a change if it benefits both the operator and the ROSCO. Even presuming Northern getting 156s and 170s instead of 150s and 158s doesn't cause any issues, the numbers wouldn't add up. You want 72 carriages but the off-lease 156s and 170s (pre-Dec 2019) only total 58.

To throw another idea in the mix Northern need to secure an additional 36 carriages by December 2022 which are to be 170s or trains equivalent in quality and performance to 170s. The Anglia 170s don't quite make up enough carriages but it's possible they could go towards that. If Northern were to get some additional 170s in service by the end of 2019, maybe they could sublease some 158s to W&B for up to 3 years?

 

[tomuk]

Northern need to secure an additional 36 carriages by December 2022 which are to be 170s or trains equivalent in quality and performance to 170s.

I believe these are going to be the 185s relased by TPE. Apart from their weight problems it makes the most sense with the depots at Ardwick and York.

 

[Gareth Marston]

The ex GA fleet does seem logically the only realistic cascade option for Wales and Borders however apart from the 153's it would introduce a new microfleet of either 156's or 170's.

But with EMT being let almost simultaneously let who knows and now the West Midlands franchise delay. Its as clear as mud

 

[pemma]

I believe these are going to be the 185s relased by TPE. Apart from their weight problems it makes the most sense with the depots at Ardwick and York.

I thought DfT's preferred option was still TPE not returning them and taking over Liverpool-Nottingham using 6 car 185s. That would require 14 units in daily service, so it would probably only leave around 6 available for other routes by the time maintenance/spares are taken in to consideration.

Although, if the option for new electric trains only for TPE is taken up that could result in Hull/South TPE services getting bi-modes and TPE freeing up more 185s.

 

[Mollman]

It would also raise the quality of stock on the Cardiff-Cheltenham route, assuming that's where the 172s would be used.

Except I seem to recall these units don't have any toilets.

 

[Parallel]

Except I seem to recall these units don't have any toilets.

The Cheltenham route seems to turn up anything. When I used it on Thursday, it was a 158 (which I was happy about) but 150s are probably most common, and pacers work it too.

Is there a possibility that 172s can have toilets added?

 

[craigybagel]

Except I seem to recall these units don't have any toilets.

The Cheltenham route seems to turn up anything. When I used it on Thursday, it was a 158 (which I was happy about) but 150s are probably most common, and pacers work it too.

Is there a possibility that 172s can have toilets added?

AIUI, they were designed with future cascading in mind, and adding a toilet is no big deal.

 

[pemma]

AIUI, they were designed with future cascading in mind, and adding a toilet is no big deal.

The addition of a toilet be easier than adding an accessible retention toilet to a 150.

 

[PHILIPE]

The Cheltenham route seems to turn up anything. When I used it on Thursday, it was a 158 (which I was happy about) but 150s are probably most common, and pacers work it too.

Is there a possibility that 172s can have toilets added?

And a 175 has a booked working also. Sometimes, but not booked, pairs (or even single) Dogboxes can work. 150s, 158s and Pacers booked otherwise.