Wales & Borders Franchise Consultation

[KashmireHawker]

Anyone dear hazard a guess to who'll get the nod? Definitely agree that it has been impressive stuff by Transport for Wales, for keeping what is always a very sensitive process exactly like that.

 

[gareth950]

Anyone dear hazard a guess to who'll get the nod? Definitely agree that it has been impressive stuff by Transport for Wales, for keeping what is always a very sensitive process exactly like that.

I hardly think TfW can be applauded for carrying out the most secretive, undemocratic, opaque and closed franchise award in the history of rail privatisation.
Never has there been a franchise award with so little notice taken of what the public and stakeholders think and want, with barely no chance to input into the process and no feedback allowed from bidders, along with the political priorities of governing politicians given precedence over everything else.
It's also the first franchise award to never have the ITT released, if there even was one.

 

[PR1Berske]

Anyone dear hazard a guess to who'll get the nod? Definitely agree that it has been impressive stuff by Transport for Wales, for keeping what is always a very sensitive process exactly like that.

"Impressive" is not perhaps the word I would use. From observing this thread over the past few months, there appears to be not so much "keeping things sensitive" as "being unable to handle anything". They lost Arriva through their own lack of clarity and vision after all.

 

[PHILIPE]

"Impressive" is not perhaps the word I would use. From observing this thread over the past few months, there appears to be not so much "keeping things sensitive" as "being unable to handle anything". They lost Arriva through their own lack of clarity and vision after all.

"World Class" according to Ken Skates

 

[craigybagel]

Anyone dear hazard a guess to who'll get the nod? Definitely agree that it has been impressive stuff by Transport for Wales, for keeping what is always a very sensitive process exactly like that.

It's a sealed bid so nobody who knows is allowed to say. As for rumours, it was very strongly towards one company for a while but in the last week I've heard it's a dead cert it's gone to the other - so in reality, who knows?

I'm more concerned with how much, or little, info will actually be revealed on Wednesday.

 

[PHILIPE]

It's a sealed bid so nobody who knows is allowed to say. As for rumours, it was very strongly towards one company for a while but in the last week I've heard it's a dead cert it's gone to the other - so in reality, who knows?

I'm more concerned with how much, or little, info will actually be revealed on Wednesday.

I have read somewhere that they have to wait 10 days in order to give an opportunity for the unsuccessful bidder to appeal.

 

[gareth950]

It's a sealed bid so nobody who knows is allowed to say. As for rumours, it was very strongly towards one company for a while but in the last week I've heard it's a dead cert it's gone to the other - so in reality, who knows?

I'm more concerned with how much, or little, info will actually be revealed on Wednesday.

I have read somewhere that they have to wait 10 days in order to give an opportunity for the unsuccessful bidder to appeal.

We're unlikely to find out the winning bidder's final plans on Wednesday, but there's no reason why the ITT can't be released is there, for as Skates' office told one of my local councillors, 'post scrutiny'?

 

[craigybagel]

I have read somewhere that they have to wait 10 days in order to give an opportunity for the unsuccessful bidder to appeal.

That would tie in with what I remember from other franchise handovers, and I too recall reading that figure somewhere with regards to this particular award.

We're unlikely to find out the winning bidder's final plans on Wednesday, but there's no reason why the ITT can't be released is there, for as Skates' office told one of my local councillors, 'post scrutiny'?

Many would argue there was no reason the ITT couldn't have been released before now either.....

 

[Gareth Marston]

Anyone dear hazard a guess to who'll get the nod? Definitely agree that it has been impressive stuff by Transport for Wales, for keeping what is always a very sensitive process exactly like that.

The identity of the winning bidder is largely irrelevant, Transport for Wales have largely determined the big picture behind closed doors. Abeilo were felt to be front runners due to the Links between the bid team and Welsh Labour however Carillions collapse terminated this.

 

[Gareth Marston]

It's a sealed bid so nobody who knows is allowed to say. As for rumours, it was very strongly towards one company for a while but in the last week I've heard it's a dead cert it's gone to the other - so in reality, who knows?

I'm more concerned with how much, or little, info will actually be revealed on Wednesday.

And more concerning will the info be forthcoming after 10 days?

 

[daikilo]

If ATW have agreed to work with their ROSCo to cover upgrade costs for toilets then I doubt that the hand-over to a new TOC will happen in October. This franchise change is a mess and largely due to the Welsh Office.

 

[gareth950]

If ATW have agreed to work with their ROSCo to cover upgrade costs for toilets then I doubt that the hand-over to a new TOC will happen in October. This franchise change is a mess and largely due to the Welsh Office.

Welsh (Labour) Government, not the Welsh Office (UK Govt), which thanks to devolution is now largely irrelevant.

 

[transmanche]

I have read somewhere that they have to wait 10 days in order to give an opportunity for the unsuccessful bidder to appeal.

A 'standstill period' (of ten days, or longer) is standard for all contracts tendered via the OJEU process. It just means that they wait ten days after announcing the winning bidder before they sign the contract in case there any legal challenges (e.g. an unsuccessful bidder can demonstrate that the rules were broken).

 

[Gareth Marston]

Well here's one thing that probably wont be highlighted......the first 319 went into Brush's works in December 2016 to be converted to a bi mode 769 and its hasn't happened yet. Allegedly the prototype will be on display on Rail Live in June, whether this means a working functioning bi mode ready for entry to traffic or not is perhaps open to question. Given the acceptance testing then has to occur and Northern's order was placed before ATW's I wouldn't bet on them appearing this year in the Valleys.

Which doesn't leave a lot of time for the 150/158 conversions.

I suspect PRM Compliance will be glossed over in the announcement.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Rhydagaled well not doubt vent about there door positioning but they are probably better suited to Llandudno to Manchester than the 175's. And the Cambrian Coast (etcs permitting).

Actually, if Llandundo-Manchester remains a stopper as it currently is I wouldn't disagree that 170s or 185s are probably suitable (except perhaps in terms of train length, but then the 175s are only 2/3 coaches too) but in that case the Northern Connect Chester-Leeds service should be worked by 175s or similar. Basiclly, I think one of the 2tph services between Chester and Manchester via Warrington should be limited stop, calling only at Warrington Bank Quay and perhaps Newton-Le-Willows, and be worked by a regional express unit (ie. with doors at the vehicle ends). The other service would then be a stopper and hence outer-suburban units are acceptable as long as the overall journey time is not excessive and the service is a stopper throughout (which the Llandudnos currently are).

I wouldn't want 170s on the Cambrian though; if the Cambrian Coast was worked as a shuttle between Pwllheli and Machynlleth you could make a case that outer-suburban stock would be suitable, but you wouldn't need a 100mph top speed for that and you'd have a micro-fleet at Machynlleth depot mixed with the Cambrian Mainline regional express fleet.

thanks for confirming that Domh245 - then its clear that W&B must have access (Even if temporarily) to the off lease GA fleet to achieve PRM Compliance with no toilets locked.

Aren't there only 16 class 170s (5 ScotRail and 11 Anglia) due off lease by the 2020 deadline? That's not enough to replace Pacers (but if the 769 production is fast once it finally gets going compliance should still be possible). Also; it's not that simple. Remember that EMT also have no plans for PRM compliance for their class 153s yet, so they will also be needing cascaded DMUs.

Well here's one thing that probably wont be highlighted......the first 319 went into Brush's works in December 2016 to be converted to a bi mode 769 and its hasn't happened yet. Allegedly the prototype will be on display on Rail Live in June, whether this means a working functioning bi mode ready for entry to traffic or not is perhaps open to question. Given the acceptance testing then has to occur and Northern's order was placed before ATW's I wouldn't bet on them appearing this year in the Valleys.

Which doesn't leave a lot of time for the 150/158 conversions.

I suspect PRM Compliance will be glossed over in the announcement.

I expect there will be a plan for PRM compliance, but I agree that it is looking likely that implementation of the plan will be delayed and the deadline missed. The question then is whether derrogations will be granted while the work is completed or toilets locked out of use. I hope the former.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Actually, if Llandundo-Manchester remains a stopper as it currently is I wouldn't disagree that 170s or 185s are probably suitable (except perhaps in terms of train length, but then the 175s are only 2/3 coaches too) but in that case the Northern Connect Chester-Leeds service should be worked by 175s or similar. Basiclly, I think one of the 2tph services between Chester and Manchester via Warrington should be limited stop, calling only at Warrington Bank Quay and perhaps Newton-Le-Willows, and be worked by a regional express unit (ie. with doors at the vehicle ends). The other service would then be a stopper and hence outer-suburban units are acceptable as long as the overall journey time is not excessive and the service is a stopper throughout (which the Llandudnos currently are).

I wouldn't want 170s on the Cambrian though; if the Cambrian Coast was worked as a shuttle between Pwllheli and Machynlleth you could make a case that outer-suburban stock would be suitable, but you wouldn't need a 100mph top speed for that and you'd have a micro-fleet at Machynlleth depot mixed with the Cambrian Mainline regional express fleet.

I think Llandudno- Mancheser Airport is pretty much nailed on as something else from what we've got running it now- could even be new build.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Aren't there only 16 class 170s (5 ScotRail and 11 Anglia) due off lease by the 2020 deadline? That's not enough to replace Pacers (but if the 769 production is fast once it finally gets going compliance should still be possible). Also; it's not that simple. Remember that EMT also have no plans for PRM compliance for their class 153s yet, so they will also be needing cascaded DMUs.

I expect there will be a plan for PRM compliance, but I agree that it is looking likely that implementation of the plan will be delayed and the deadline missed. The question then is whether derrogations will be granted while the work is completed or toilets locked out of use. I hope the former.

The numbers/ timeframe simply don't stack up whatever scenario you try and play.

Vivarail will be hard to justify given previous rejection and there will be a lot of procurement rules questions asked if the CAF Plant in Newport suddenly has a full order book form the new franchise.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think Llandudno- Mancheser Airport is pretty much nailed on as something else from what we've got running it now- could even be new build.

Please say Stadler

Other than the WAG Express, though, I can't see a single ATW long-distance service (and many of the non-long-distance ones too) for which a Class 170 wouldn't be suitable. None of them are true InterCity in the manner of something like VTWC, they are really tri-purpose services - local/commuter, regional and IC - and so a unit like a Class 170 (or 185 subject to the weight being an issue, or 195, or whatever Stadler might come up with) with a commuter door layout for fast boarding and alighting but an InterCity quality seating arrangement and ample luggage stacks would be just about perfect - in essence basically what ScotRail have been using up to the HSTs.

I think people unnecessarily get hung up about door positions. It's the rest of the interior that's more important - good, supportive and soft enough seating and comfortable spacing, plenty of tables and seatback tables in airline seating - not the doors.

 

[Philip]

If 175s aren't suitable for the Llandudno services because of the door arrangement and narrow vestibules clogging things up at Oxford Road and Chester, then you can make the same case for the Manchester-South Wales services too at Crewe and Shrewsbury. I can't comment on the stations further down. I think people make a mistake in classing the Manchester-South Wales as an intercity service, it isn't: it is in the regional express category yes but it very much serves as a commuter service too during the peak hours, e.g. Manchester-Crewe-Shrewsbury, Hereford-Newport-Cardiff. So a 185 would have its own advantages over the 175 even for this route.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If 175s aren't suitable for the Llandudno services because of the door arrangement and narrow vestibules clogging things up at Oxford Road and Chester, then you can make the same case for the Manchester-South Wales services too at Crewe and Shrewsbury.

I agree. TBH, doors at quarters or thirds as per Classes 170, 185 and 195 (with high quality InterCity interiors like Chiltern's) are to me the correct arrangement for all of the kind of services ATW operate with the one exception of the WAG Express, which itself might do better being dropped and replaced with a generally higher quality clockface service on that route all day.

ATW doesn't really operate InterCity services other than that one exception, they're medium to long distance regional expresses which is the kind of service the Class 170 was basically made for.

 

[gareth950]

The numbers/ timeframe simply don't stack up whatever scenario you try and play.

Vivarail will be hard to justify given previous rejection and there will be a lot of procurement rules questions asked if the CAF Plant in Newport suddenly has a full order book form the new franchise.

We know that's exactly what will happen though! It will have been pre-determined by TfW like everything else.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I agree. TBH, doors at quarters or thirds as per Classes 170, 185 and 195 (with high quality InterCity interiors like Chiltern's) are to me the correct arrangement for all of the kind of services ATW operate with the one exception of the WAG Express, which itself might do better being dropped and replaced with a generally higher quality clockface service on that route all day.

ATW doesn't really operate InterCity services other than that one exception, they're medium to long distance regional expresses which is the kind of service the Class 170 was basically made for.

Punctuality nose dives due to extended station dwell as soon as you get 158 formations dropping down to 2 car, but that's more of a quantity of rolling stock issue though. I traveled a lot to Cardiff on the 0719 ex Shrewsbury (0425 ex Holyhead) it was diagrammed a 3 car Class 175 and the six doors usually did the business fine at Ludlow and Leominster when the educational commuters got on in force.

Birmingham to the Cambrian has a high number of long distance travelers that go end to end but at certain times ATW are swamped with Shropshire commuters I'd be interested to see comparisons with Manchester to Cardiff through travelers. However i do think the Marches is affluent enough for a small 1st class section similar to what TPE have on their 185's.

 

[HH]

I would expect that all sorts of stock will be thrown at the problem short-term, so much of what's written above will not matter. If adding half a dozen 230s to the mix gets over the immediate problem then in they come. Finding a longer term use for any of the refurbed stock is harder, but I expect that some will have been done for price reasons. Can't afford new stock throughout, not with CVL to pay for.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I would expect that all sorts of stock will be thrown at the problem short-term, so much of what's written above will not matter. If adding half a dozen 230s to the mix gets over the immediate problem then in they come. Finding a longer term use for any of the refurbed stock is harder, but I expect that some will have been done for price reasons. Can't afford new stock throughout, not with CVL to pay for.

That's an endearing image of different parts of the industry all pulling together to help out Transport for Wales regardless of other obligations/ contracts and commercial activity. Especially on Meltdown Monday.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That's an endearing image of different parts of the industry all pulling together to help out Transport for Wales regardless of other obligations/ contracts and commercial activity. Especially on Meltdown Monday.

I'm sure Vivarail will happily flog 230s to anyone who wants them, as that furthers the profitability of their business - they aren't doing it for a laugh.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Birmingham to the Cambrian has a high number of long distance travelers that go end to end but at certain times ATW are swamped with Shropshire commuters I'd be interested to see comparisons with Manchester to Cardiff through travelers. However i do think the Marches is affluent enough for a small 1st class section similar to what TPE have on their 185's.

As long as there's enough Standard (as many people, me included, resent paying 1st in order not to stand with someone's head in their armpit) 1st is basically (tourist) money for old rope.

 

[47802]

I would expect that all sorts of stock will be thrown at the problem short-term, so much of what's written above will not matter. If adding half a dozen 230s to the mix gets over the immediate problem then in they come. Finding a longer term use for any of the refurbed stock is harder, but I expect that some will have been done for price reasons. Can't afford new stock throughout, not with CVL to pay for.

Shooter seemed to make fairly clear in his last presentation that 230's wouldn't be going to Wales

 

[John R]

The BBC is also reporting a 10 day delay before any details are reported, but i can't understand where this is coming from. All other announcements have given all the details re new services, amounts of rolling stock expected to be ordered (although not the builder, etc on the day of the announcement, not after the standstill period. Most famously we were told what First had planned for the West Coast franchise in 2012 before Virgin announced it was going to appeal.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Shooter seemed to make fairly clear in his last presentation that 230's wouldn't be going to Wales

Once they were rejected for the North of England that was it they are politically toxic for a devolved Government like Wales and a "face" issue. Talk big and then get second hand tube stock? - they will run a mile at that prospect.

Shooter clearly got the nod form inside DfT there was an opportunity and Ruttnam made it clear that Dft wanted them for the north but politics overtook it....

 

[HH]

The bidder's plans may have changed post-bid, as the whole process is more of a negotiation than a normal franchise letting; politics is likely to have had an even bigger effect than normal. Still, there's only the art of the possible - which is worse politically, getting rid of all Pacers by 2019 by throwing in a few 230s to make up the numbers, or running a bunch of Pacers with the toilets locked out?