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Wales to enter "circuit break" lockdown from Friday 23 October to Monday 9 November

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RomeoCharlie71

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So the Welsh transport union has been informed of a circuit-break lockdown from Friday 23 October, and someone's leaked it to the news.

A "circuit break" lockdown for Wales will start at 6pm next Friday and last for 17 days, according to a leaked letter from the transport union CPT.

The Welsh government is not due to announce its decision on whether to impose a national lockdown until Monday, but details have been outlined in a letter to transport operators from John Pockett, director of the Confederation of Passenger Transport Cymru.


It says the circuit breaker will start at 6pm on Friday 23 October and last until 0.01am on Monday 9 November.

The leaked letter was first published by political blogger Bubble Wales

Image:The leaked letter was first published by political blogger Bubble Wales
The letter, first published by political blogger Bubble Wales and verified by Sky News, says the lockdown will "take us back to the situation in March".

It says: "Pubs, cafes, restaurants, hairdressers etc - will all be closed."


The letter adds that while government ministers have not yet determined the details on schools, plans suggest primary schools will reopen on November 2 - after the half-term break.

On Friday, First Minister Mark Drakeford said no final decision had been made about introducing a lockdown, which would deliver a "short, sharp shock".
Now with the greatest of respects, if this lockdown is so urgently needed, why are they waiting until Friday to impose it? Cue panic buying again.

It just so happens that it coincides with the start of the October school holidays. So, the government say it's perfectly fine to return to school, then during the holidays children must stay at home.
 
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Richard Scott

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Why is it all regions? Virtually nothing where I live and not one case in local secondary school so if they close that for more than a week then begs the question, why? Another bunch of clueless politicians worrying about being seen to be doing something in vain hope we'll vote for them. Not a chance, already sent email to Welsh Assembly and local MP questioning their actions and telling them they won't get my vote.
 

Darandio

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I wouldn't bet on England not doing it too. Indeed, I'd bet that we will. Except unlike Wales Bozza will decide to do it at about 8pm the day it comes in.

I predict an announcement next Thursday just before the schools break up. It's nailed on.
 

Richard Scott

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Has the measure been debated in the Welsh Assembly - or is Drakeford just imposing it by decree?
I've no idea, he hadn't said much for ages then raised his head with implementing masks and now seems to be loving the power again. Wish he'd go back into hibernation.

I wouldn't bet on England not doing it too. Indeed, I'd bet that we will. Except unlike Wales Bozza will decide to do it at about 8pm the day it comes in.
At least I'll be with family, though.
 

bramling

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I wouldn't bet on England not doing it too. Indeed, I'd bet that we will. Except unlike Wales Bozza will decide to do it at about 8pm the day it comes in.

I suspect you may well prove to be right.

If so I for one will absolutely not be complying. In fact I’m so peeved with all this that I would actively go out of my way to breach it.

So the Welsh transport union has been informed of a circuit-break lockdown from Friday 23 October, and someone's leaked it to the news.


Now with the greatest of respects, if this lockdown is so urgently needed, why are they waiting until Friday to impose it? Cue panic buying again.

It just so happens that it coincides with the start of the October school holidays. So, the government say it's perfectly fine to return to school, then during the holidays children must stay at home.

What do they mean about “some” schools reopening? Does this imply some schools will be remaining closed, or am I misinterpreting? This messing around with childrens’ education has got to stop.
 

yorkie

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Is there a definite end point? Supposing R etc are bigger what then?
Indeed. The full UK-wide lockdown didn't get the infection rate down for several weeks after it was imposed; when the infection rate did finally start to drop it was probably more related to the warmer weather than anything else. Infections continued to decline even when the lockdown was relaxed.

So, unless they rule it out now, I expect they may well want to continue it for longer than 17 days. And what then? All it does is kick the can down the road and delay the spread of the virus. There is no guarantee they won't want to do another lockdown in December. And it could continue like that indefinitely until a vaccine is available.

The benefits of lockdowns are overstated by the pro-lockdown brigade

Increasing COVID-19 caseloads were associated with countries with higher obesity, median population age and longer time to border closures from the first reported case.
Increased mortality per million was significantly associated with higher obesity prevalence and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) .
Reduced income dispersion reduced mortality and the number of critical cases.
Rapid border closures, full lockdowns, and wide-spread testing were not associated with COVID-19 mortality per million people.
However, full lockdowns and reduced country vulnerability to biological threats (i.e. high scores on the global health security scale for risk environment) were significantly associated with increased patient recovery rates.

Edit: There's also a good video interview with David Nabaroo on the subject:
Dr. David Nabarro from the WHO appealed to world leaders yesterday, telling them to stop “using lockdowns as your primary control method” of the coronavirus.

He also claimed that the only thing lockdowns achieved was poverty – with no mention of the potential lives saved.

“Lockdowns just have one consequence that you must never ever belittle, and that is making poor people an awful lot poorer,” he said...
 
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Smidster

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I would be shocked if we are not in a similar position in England by the end of the week - Those in favour of increased restrictions are shouting the loudest and Johnson doesn't have the leadership skills to fight against it.

It is incredibly naive to think that this would only last for 2.5 weeks - It take about that long for you to start to see a discernible impact on the numbers at which point you guarantee the pressure starts to "just keep it going to save the NHS"

If you kept to the 17-day thing then it is also pretty much pointless - Too short to have any real impact at all and then we just get back to where we are now just a few weeks later and further into the winter season.

More lives ruined for naff all...awesome.
 

Yew

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Even a Welsh friend of mine, who had generally been pro-restriction and critical of Sweden, is now signing petitions to keep Gyms open during the Welsh Circuit breaker; she has the view that the benefits outweigh the risks on a population level.
 

adc82140

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If England wants to follow suit, they'll have to act quickly. There would be some manageable displeasure about half term getaways being cancelled if it was announced tomorrow, but that would pale into insignificance if they wait till the suitcases are already packed on Friday night.

Michael Gove has categorically denied that there will be a circuit breaker on Sky News this morning, which makes me concerned. Remember what he said about face masks?
 

Mag_seven

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I would be shocked if we are not in a similar position in England by the end of the week - Those in favour of increased restrictions are shouting the loudest and Johnson doesn't have the leadership skills to fight against it.

Johnson really needs to grow some and tell them where to get off. He has an 80 seat majority and its high time he started to use it. Even the Irish government went against their Scientific advisors advice and rejected their calls for another lockdown as they could see what damage that would do to the Irish economy.

Needless to say, I suppose Drakeford expects Westminster to come to Wales's rescue and fund their circuit breaker lockdown?
 

bramling

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If England wants to follow suit, they'll have to act quickly. There would be some manageable displeasure about half term getaways being cancelled if it was announced tomorrow, but that would pale into insignificance if they wait till the suitcases are already packed on Friday night.

Michael Gove has categorically denied that there will be a circuit breaker on Sky News this morning, which makes me concerned. Remember what he said about face masks?

Saying that England will have to act quickly to avoid chaos is applying logic to the situation!

But there will be fury if half term breaks all get caped, especially at the last moment. Boris probably has some inkling of that, which is why he is bungling. I agree that in the end he will give in and we’ll get it.
 

bramling

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If he does give in we may as well just hand the keys to 10 Downing St to Sturgeon, Drakeford, or Whitty

The key to this will be mass ignoring. I certainly have every intention of doing just that.

Going forward this aspect of the devolution needs to be looked at. It’s been a farce.
 

bramling

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All three of them would do a better job in pretty much every regard possible; Bozza is just grossly incompetent and useless.

Yes must as I disagree with the circuit breaker, Drakeford delivered a powerful performance on the subject I thought. He at least explained why (he thinks) it is necessary, and did it in a way which will probably get some level of buy-in from people.

Meanwhile when BJ comes on television I have to really work hard to resist the urge to put my fist through the screen...
 

Richard Scott

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Yes must as I disagree with the circuit breaker, Drakeford delivered a powerful performance on the subject I thought. He at least explained why (he thinks) it is necessary, and did it in a way which will probably get some level of buy-in from people.

Meanwhile when BJ comes on television I have to really work hard to resist the urge to put my fist through the screen...
Drakeford may explain why he thinks it's necessary but that's his opinion, rest of us now stuck with it. Bloke is a complete, incompetent clown. Economy in Wales not in best of shape, not is the healthcare system, now it's just going to get worse. Can't believe anyone falls for this nonsense.

All three of them would do a better job in pretty much every regard possible; Bozza is just grossly incompetent and useless.
No they wouldn't, at the moment they're loving the power. I'm no fan of Boris either, he's inept and indecisive.
 

bramling

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Drakeford may explain why he thinks it's necessary but that's his opinion, rest of us now stuck with it. Bloke is a complete, incompetent clown. Economy in Wales not in best of shape, not is the healthcare system, now it's just going to get worse. Can't believe anyone falls for this nonsense.


No they wouldn't, at the moment they're loving the power. I'm no fan of Boris either, he's inept and indecisive.

It’s the problem with Boris being *so* awful - by comparison it makes the likes of Drakeford and Sturgeon seem good.

If we had someone with the speaking ability of Thatcher or Portillo, or perhaps pre-Iraq Blair, these people wouldn’t be getting a look in.
 

John Luxton

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I would be shocked if we are not in a similar position in England by the end of the week - Those in favour of increased restrictions are shouting the loudest and Johnson doesn't have the leadership skills to fight against it.
More lives ruined for naff all...awesome.

The trouble is most of the press (with one or two exceptions such as Daily Mail which in recent weeks has tried to represent both sides of the argument and is slowly drifting towards an anti-lockdown stance) are not reporting all thre protests either here in the UK or World Wide. As for broadcast media they virtually ignore them of if they do acknowledge them try to smear them. I have been following Anna Brees on FB and YouTube - she is a former BBC reporter and is trying very hard to blow the lid on the one sided reporting. In recent weeks she has interviewed a cross section of people from former BBC Journalist Sue Cook, to the Conservative MP that resigned as PPS the other day.

I finally joined Facebook last year because I realised I was missing out on much railway and industrial history material. However, in the past 6 months or so I have been quite active in various anti-lockdown groups - probably more so than the transport groups.

I suggest anyone who is getting tired of politicians ruining your lives you join some of these groups. Share information. Organise local protests etc.

Yesterday In Liverpool there was a large demonstration in St John's Gardens. The local rag thought they would smear the meeting which I watched via Facebook. However, it was well ordered and eventually late last night the paper commented that the police praised the organisation. Though then a lot of the sheep who had earlier been criticising the protestors turned their venom on the police.

This is what we are up against the population is divided, probably more so than the Brexit debate.

However, the more that join the fight to return to old normal the better. We can all do it challenge views on local and national newspaper comments sections. Attend demos and rallies. (I am not a protesting type I admit - this is weird for me!)

Don't just sit there doing nothing even if you only become a keyboard warrior!

John
 

Richard Scott

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It’s the problem with Boris being *so* awful - by comparison it makes the likes of Drakeford and Sturgeon seem good.

If we had someone with the speaking ability of Thatcher or Portillo, or perhaps pre-Iraq Blair, these people wouldn’t be getting a look in.
This is the issue, none of them are any good but people seem to think Drakeford and Sturgeon are doing a good job. The only good job they're doing is massaging their own egos, wrecking the economy and wellbeing of people in their respective parts of UK.
 

Bletchleyite

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It’s the problem with Boris being *so* awful - by comparison it makes the likes of Drakeford and Sturgeon seem good.

If we had someone with the speaking ability of Thatcher or Portillo, or perhaps pre-Iraq Blair, these people wouldn’t be getting a look in.

I actually like the fact that it makes space for people who seem just to be genuine to me - particularly Drakeford who is just like your caring old Welsh grandfather.
 
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