WCML InterCity Franchise

[JaJaWa]

In the 2012 West Coast franchise competition, Virgin's bid proposed replacing Voyagers with 6-car 'baby' Pendolinos. Loco haulage would have been used for the diesel lines. First proposed a smaller number of 125mph EMUs to supplement the Voyagers. More details here.

Good old Horizon Trains!

 

[pt_mad]

Given recent franchise awards having included so much change and proposed improvements, I can't see this franchise being just medeocre. Was the minimum service specification the same or similar in the 2012 invitation to tender? If so, there were still some new services proposed such as Stirling and Bolton and additional Trent Valley calls which presumably would have been optional extras.

There is always the possibility that a new model of tilting train could be specified and ordered, even if it's just enough to replace the voyager fleet. If the fleet could be guaranteed for future use on the WCML, until the Pendolinos are end of life, then that possibly could be enough for an investment in new voyager replacement (bi-mode) or additional tilt EMU with locomotive to haul out of the wires, as per VT 2012 bid.

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

Given recent franchise awards having included so much change and proposed improvements, I can't see this franchise being just medeocre. Was the minimum service specification the same or similar in the 2012 invitation to tender? If so, there were still some new services proposed such as Stirling and Bolton and additional Trent Valley calls which presumably would have been optional extras.

There is always the possibility that a new model of tilting train could be specified and ordered, even if it's just enough to replace the voyager fleet. If the fleet could be guaranteed for future use on the WCML, until the Pendolinos are end of life, then that possibly could be enough for an investment in new voyager replacement (bi-mode) or additional tilt EMU with locomotive to haul out of the wires, as per VT 2012 bid.

Is there any type of rolling stock currently on the market that they may use to replace the voyagers?

 

[krus_aragon]

Given recent franchise awards having included so much change and proposed improvements, I can't see this franchise being just medeocre. Was the minimum service specification the same or similar in the 2012 invitation to tender?

This next franchise isn't a franchise, though: it's a "partnership", and involves introducing the first HS2 services once built. There's your razzmatazz right there!

The Invitation to Tender documents are here though, if you want a browse.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Is there any type of rolling stock currently on the market that they may use to replace the voyagers?

Depends on what approach they took to replacing them. There isn't a UK gauge tilting 125mph DMU, no, which is probably why they've stuck around. So any viable replacement is going to mean changes to the service pattern.

I have wondered, though (and this is completely opposite to my "if it ain't broke" line upthread, and is heading into speculative ideas, so we may need to split the thread if it goes too far that way), if you could for instance sell moving the North Wales Coast services to the Chiltern line via Shrewsbury (thus slowing them down somewhat) but offset by new rolling stock with very high quality interiors (I'm not going to comment on what, as there are loads of options, some new and some used) and an hourly service to Holyhead rather than a bitty one?

So you'd basically be recreating something like WSMR for the North Wales Coast but in a franchised operator? Perhaps it could even be operated by TfW, then it would be controlled by Wales and run for their benefit?

Then you'd only need EMUs for the WCML operator, and as Alstom appear to have bidded a tilting HS EMU for HS2, getting some of those built sooner rather than later to run on the existing WCML (for now) could be a good plan. Then rework some Pendolino coaches to get them all to 11-car (yes, I know it requires addition of a transformer, but if you can turn an old London Underground unit into a viable branch line DMU... ) and you're sorted.

Edit: another similar option might be to get the wires to Chester and follow the same EMU based plan, but then to add an hourly InterCity quality (68+Mk4?) Holyhead to Birmingham timed to connect with it at Chester? Or even bin the wires off and Crewe? I think total loss of the through service would perhaps be politically too much, though.

Edit edit: but then again, we have Voyagers running to Brum and Scotland for the moment - so we could just tart them up with completely new interiors and use them all for North Wales, and order said new EMUs for Scotland...

 

[ForTheLoveOf]

Depends on what approach they took to replacing them. There isn't a UK gauge tilting 125mph DMU, no, which is probably why they've stuck around. So any viable replacement is going to mean changes to the service pattern.

I have wondered, though (and this is completely opposite to my "if it ain't broke" line upthread, and is heading into speculative ideas, so we may need to split the thread if it goes too far that way), if you could for instance sell moving the North Wales Coast services to the Chiltern line via Shrewsbury (thus slowing them down somewhat) but offset by new rolling stock with very high quality interiors (I'm not going to comment on what, as there are loads of options, some new and some used) and an hourly service to Holyhead rather than a bitty one?

So you'd basically be recreating something like WSMR for the North Wales Coast but in a franchised operator? Perhaps it could even be operated by TfW, then it would be controlled by Wales and run for their benefit?

Then you'd only need EMUs for the WCML operator, and as Alstom appear to have bidded a tilting HS EMU for HS2, getting some of those built sooner rather than later to run on the existing WCML (for now) could be a good plan. Then rework some Pendolino coaches to get them all to 11-car (yes, I know it requires addition of a transformer, but if you can turn an old London Underground unit into a viable branch line DMU... ) and you're sorted.

Edit: another similar option might be to get the wires to Chester and follow the same EMU based plan, but then to add an hourly InterCity quality (68+Mk4?) Holyhead to Birmingham timed to connect with it at Chester? Or even bin the wires off and Crewe? I think total loss of the through service would perhaps be politically too much, though.

With all due respect, I think you may be missing the main priorities of typical passengers in your proposals! People want a reasonable frequency, as few changes as possible and a fast journey time. Those are the things which people look up when they are planning a trip and deciding whether to take the train, to fly, to go by car, to take the coach and so on.

I don't think a revived Wrexham & Shropshire service would work. It was slow enough to Wrexham, let alone to Holyhead. I think that extending the current hourly Chester services to Holyhead would make sense, or at least having the extensions more regular than the current haphazard mess. Ultimately I think that particular route will stay on Super Voyagers for quite a while - there is no current replacement in production, and there are no proposals for a replacement either.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I don't think a revived Wrexham & Shropshire service would work. It was slow enough to Wrexham, let alone to Holyhead. I think that extending the current hourly Chester services to Holyhead would make sense, or at least having the extensions more regular than the current haphazard mess. Ultimately I think that particular route will stay on Super Voyagers for quite a while - there is no current replacement in production, and there are no proposals for a replacement either.

To be fair, I think it would be viable to order EMUs, if anyone will build a tilting one such as Alstom's HS2 proposal, to get Voyagers off Scottish services, freeing up enough that you could run North Wales hourly.

Shrewsbury might be more difficult (unless they ran it via Chester and Wrexham), as that relies on using DMUs on Brum services to continue on, which is rather a waste.

 

[EE Andy b1]

Well once again it all comes down to the franchise mess the governments DfT left us in from 2012.
We would have had either mini Pendolinos or similar to replace most 221s, so the Scottish services would have been all electric. More North Wales and Shrewsbury services.

Although 7 years away there will be (should be) 54 Classic compatible HS2 train sets taking over a lot of 390 work off the WC South of Litchfield so this will release 390s for other services.
221s are harder to fathom as there is nothing equivalent to change to for the forseeable future. So they might stay as is but upgrade the services they do to North Wales.

As for buying more tilting trains for the future, it's been said before but just can't see it happening due.to costs involved.

 

[BR67]

Alstom appear to have bidded a tilting HS EMU for HS2

Really?! I don't see any mention of tilt on the Alstom HS2 page here. (They refer to Avelia Pendolino as a product, but that's limited to 250km/h, so not an HS2 solution). The train would be a lot more costly if it tilted, and there was no requirement to tilt in the HS2 Rolling Stock Technical Specification.

 

[GrimShady]

The short Pendolino (2012 Virgin Proposal) and loco idea was a good one. This is what the should have done with IEP LNER trains. north of Edinburgh.

 

[cactustwirly]

The short Pendolino and loco idea was a good one. This is what the should have done with IEP LNER trains. north of Edinburgh.

Why? That would cost more, and would a significant time penalty for attaching and detaching the loco, plus the passenger space would have to be reduced to accommodate the loco.

 

[GrimShady]

Why? That would cost more, and would a significant time penalty for attaching and detaching the loco, plus the passenger space would have to be reduced to accommodate the loco.

Not if the loco was designed to interface with IEP specifically it would have been less than a few minutes. Why would it take up valuable passenger space if attached from the rear and pushed?

Have a look at the Virign 2012 proposal.

 

[cactustwirly]

Not if the loco was designed to interface with IEP specifically it would have been less than a few minutes. Why would it take up valuable passenger space if attached from the rear and pushed?

Have a look at the Virign 2012 proposal.

What does it achieve though?
Those locos are going to be expensive, and I don't think anyone makes one powerful enough to haul an IET at 100+mph.
Well the train will have to be shorter as 9 car IET + loco could be too long and faul points and crossings whilst at stations.
A changeover from Diesel to Electric on an IET is only about 10 seconds, and avoids lots of faffing around with shunt movements etc.

 

[GrimShady]

What does it achieve though?
Those locos are going to be expensive, and I don't think anyone makes one powerful enough to haul an IET at 100+mph.
Well the train will have to be shorter as 9 car IET + loco could be too long and faul points and crossings whilst at stations.
A changeover from Diesel to Electric on an IET is only about 10 seconds, and avoids lots of faffing around with shunt movements etc.

The IEP can't perform the same as an HST on the HML. It doesn't have to be 100mph plus as that's the ceiling in Scotland excluding ECML & WCML. The shunting movement consists of...couple up and push or lead decouple, move of, no difference than a MU.

Even Virgin seen merit in the idea for their non electrified services.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Well once again it all comes down to the franchise mess the governments DfT left us in from 2012.
We would have had either mini Pendolinos or similar to replace most 221s

They would have been a stupid idea and as a regular user of VTWC as it now is I am very glad it didn't happen. What was done - joining the Scottish service onto the Birmingham one - was a much better solution. If anything new had been ordered, the best would have been to increase all 9-car sets to 11 (making a homogeneous EMU fleet) and ordering a few more 11-car sets so Voyagers could be confined to North Wales would have been the way to go.

As has been demonstrated, on the vast majority of services a full-length set is needed north of Brum, and where it isn't you can mostly fill the seats with Advances.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Really?! I don't see any mention of tilt on the Alstom HS2 page here. (They refer to Avelia Pendolino as a product, but that's limited to 250km/h, so not an HS2 solution). The train would be a lot more costly if it tilted, and there was no requirement to tilt in the HS2 Rolling Stock Technical Specification.

While it could be an artist's error, it was pointed out on the other thread that it has tilt bogies.

But anyway, HS2 or not HS2, it seems clear Alstom (and probably only Alstom) could supply a tilting EMU suitable for the classic WCML.

 

[EE Andy b1]

They would have been a stupid idea and as a regular user of VTWC as it now is I am very glad it didn't happen.

Disagree. I think would have been a good idea as sets could be doubled (works well normally) as and when needed and some services like Blackpool could have split at Crewe for Man Airport/Bolton/Blackpool as a 9 car certainly isn't needed.
Could have had the odd fast Northampton like they used to.
I do agree all 390s should have been 11 car, thanks DfT.
221s could then double for more Shrewsbury/Chester/North Wales.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Disagree. I think would have been a good idea as sets could be doubled (works well normally) as and when needed and some services like Blackpool could have split at Crewe for Man Airport/Bolton/Blackpool as a 9 car certainly isn't needed.
Could have had the odd fast Northampton like they used to.

There is no real need for any of those services - really, VTWC don't need to be doing anything that doesn't require an 11-car set or near to it. And splitting/joining would reduce punctuality.

Blackpool - there are good connections via Preston.

Manchester Airport - oh, look, the tail is wagging the dog again. No need whatsoever. FNW tried it (at bargain fares and with services not much slower than Virgin back then) and nobody used it - literally nobody. People don't want to travel from Manchester Airport to London, they want to travel from the Manchester area generally to London, and it's not a good Parkway due to the high price of parking. It is a complete waste of time.

Bolton - again, no need, but if you really want to do a couple a day just extend Manchester services back.

 

[ainsworth74]

As there doesn't appear to be any news regarding the franchise and we've gone well off-topic this thread is now locked.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The DfT has today put out a very short and strange statement about the rail franchise schedule.
It basically withdraws the old detailed schedule (now 2 years old), and says everything waits until the Williams review has reported, except the existing competitions (meaning SE and WCP).
I take that to mean they are going to award the WCP franchise any time now (if they can get anybody to agree a contract).
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/rail-franchise-schedule

The Secretary of State has commissioned Keith Williams to undertake a root and branch review of the railway, including franchising.
Currently contracted franchises and franchise competitions will continue.
Other live rail projects are outside the scope of the review.
View information on each passenger rail franchise for bidders, passengers and stakeholders

I can only think that, after 2 years, some EU process has forced them to make a statement about future competitions, so they've put out the minimum statement.
Modern Railways (July) thought the WCP competition would be cancelled, but I think they would have said that today if that was the case.