We must enable the economy to recover as soon as practicable

[Islineclear3_1]

My worry is that many furloughed workers might be let go or forced to return on less-favourable pay and conditions and to be made to feel they are lucky to still have a job.

 

[Starmill]

Wasn't that the 16th? I made a train journey on all of the 14th, 15th and 16th. It was the 16th when there was Boris's "don't go to pubs" announcement, and to me that was the de-facto start of lockdown, bar a cheeky Nando's on the way home.

It was 16th. I just made my own arrangements to stay home on 15th and 16th. I wasn't the only one I know who did.

 

[GB]

My worry is that many furloughed workers might be let go or forced to return on less-favourable pay and conditions and to be made to feel they are lucky to still have a job.

That is exactly what will happen to many people, but what is the alternative?

 

[Tazi Hupefi]

My worry is that many furloughed workers might be let go or forced to return on less-favourable pay and conditions and to be made to feel they are lucky to still have a job.

Correct, and people should feel that way, lucky.

It's unfortunate and likely difficult for everyone involved here, but if you've still got a job of any description or salary, after all this, you're definitely lucky.

 

[bramling]

My worry is that many furloughed workers might be let go or forced to return on less-favourable pay and conditions and to be made to feel they are lucky to still have a job.

Being absolutely brutally objective, it’s quite correct to say such people will be lucky to still have their job.

Just in the last hour I’ve had an email from the hotel where I was booked for two weeks in Wales next month. They’ve very sorry that they won’t be able to honour the booking, due to having taken the difficult decision to cease trading. Thin end of the wedge perhaps, especially for businesses already struggling for whatever unrelated reason?

 

[Yew]

Government's job on the economy is to spend around the lockdown however it can, provide certainly to safe, short-term operations however they can, and then, later, to provide massive stimulus and rebuilding, in order to prevent what happened after the Depression.

Given conservative policy over the last 10 years, I'm not entirely sure they will do that..

 

[Starmill]

Given conservative policy over the last 10 years, I'm not entirely sure they will do that..

I don't think they will either. More than anything else, what's called for is massive government spending. Eventually this will come through tax increases, although there's no room for that right now obviously, so it's borrow borrow borrow. In crisis mode they're doing the borrowing that's called for. In the recovery, it's going to be an interesting ride.

 

[SuperNova]

Being absolutely brutally objective, it’s quite correct to say such people will be lucky to still have their job.

Just in the last hour I’ve had an email from the hotel where I was booked for two weeks in Wales next month. They’ve very sorry that they won’t be able to honour the booking, due to having taken the difficult decision to cease trading. Thin end of the wedge perhaps, especially for businesses already struggling for whatever unrelated reason?

Inevitably there is going to be a shift in the economy. I know of at least two pubs that have called it a day - one posted on social media that they were struggling beforehand and can't see their business recovering until Covid's gone for good. In some cases it may be a good thing - relying on a service based economy can be very fragile.

 

[The Ham]

Inevitably there is going to be a shift in the economy. I know of at least two pubs that have called it a day - one posted on social media that they were struggling beforehand and can't see their business recovering until Covid's gone for good. In some cases it may be a good thing - relying on a service based economy can be very fragile.

I suspect that there's going to be a in what we spend our money on.

For instance, with now working from home there's likely to be a shift away from spending on what lunches, snacks and coffee away from the home.

Likewise there'll going to be some who reduce their spending on cars, most likely by reducing the number of cars on a household.

With international travel being harder (at least in the short term due to fewer flights and testing and quarantine) and therefore likely to be more costly. That's likely to impact on people's ability and therefore desire to travel.

Also with people losing their jobs there's going to be more saving happening amongst those who still have their jobs. That's likely to impact on spending on stuff, now whilst that's likely to impact on some shops and therefore their staff that may not be such a bad thing.

House prices are likely to fall, however given that ours has gone up in value by 60% in ten years and houses weren't overly cheap then either a small correction probably isn't a bad thing. However getting building works and maintenance done would also likely be cheaper.

There is a theory that if we wanted the economy to come back up to speed as fast as possible then we should have been better at social distancing before the lockdown. That would have meant resisting the urge to go and see parents on Mother's Day and not having parties.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Inevitably there is going to be a shift in the economy. I know of at least two pubs that have called it a day - one posted on social media that they were struggling beforehand and can't see their business recovering until Covid's gone for good. In some cases it may be a good thing - relying on a service based economy can be very fragile.

What has happened is that any businesses that were unlikely to have survived more than a year or two more have been cleared out in a stroke.

 

[yorksrob]

I do worry for the small businesses in Leeds , for example, that our office used to support.

All I can say is that whilst I have the means, as soon as I'm allowed to go out and support the pubs, cafe's, sports clubs etc that need the footfall, I will be doing so (whilst observong required social distancing protocols of course).

 

[underbank]

What has happened is that any businesses that were unlikely to have survived more than a year or two more have been cleared out in a stroke.

I'd say the opposite. There'll be loads of businesses on their last legs who'll greatly benefit from the various grants, loans, etc., and may be able to use them wisely to reposition themselves for the new "normal" which will come in the aftermath of Covid. The grants will also extend the death throes of some businesses who were about to go under, can't reposition themselves, and will use the grants just to stagger on another year or two, just delaying the inevitable.

Also, lots of small businesses have never had access to affordable loans for business development. For the first time in decades, small businesses have access to loans at sensible interest rates. The UK banks have been poor for years when it comes to business loans - usually wanting a second charge over the business owners' home, which is impossible for those who are renting or mortgaging with high LTV where there's not enough equity in the house to cover the loan. Leasing equipment/vehicles etc isn't easy for people without good credit ratings.

I'm an accountant, I already know of a few of my clients who are using the loans to buy new equipment, improve premises, etc. These are people who've been struggling with inefficient equipment or inadequate premises and can make the leap to the next level, often with just a few thousand pounds.