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Weather disruption (Hurricane Orphelia) 16-17/10/17

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cuccir

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Significant disruption predicted over next couple of days, focused on Ireland and Irish Sea coasts, as the rememnants of Orphelia pass over us. First suggested impacts are likely speed limits on many Arriva Trains Wales services on Monday afternoon.

Stay safe all!
 
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AM9

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It'g good to hear nearly every report on the storm referring to it as 'hurricane Ophelia downgraded' or 'tropical storm that was Ophelia'. That's making sure that we don't have a mirepresentation of forecasters words just for the sensationalist headlines, as was the case with Michael Fish in 1987 (and ever since).
 

dubscottie

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It'g good to hear nearly every report on the storm referring to it as 'hurricane Ophelia downgraded' or 'tropical storm that was Ophelia'. That's making sure that we don't have a mirepresentation of forecasters words just for the sensationalist headlines, as was the case with Michael Fish in 1987 (and ever since).
It has changed in name only. It is already took out the power in Cork/Kerry and its not even made landfall yet.

Nothing sensationalist about it. This may kill people.
 

PR1Berske

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Met Éireann is calling her "Hurricane Ophelia", the Met Office merely "ex-hurricane Ophelia"

In any case, she's pretty damn fierce.
 

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Quakkerillo

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Out of interest why is it no longer a hurricane if the power has not reduced? What defines a hurricane?
Average 10-minute (or 1-minute if American) sustained wind speed. If this is at least 120 km/h, then it's a hurricane. If it's below, then it isn't. A few gusts of 150km/h don't make it a hurricane, but 10 minutes of 120km/h winds do. Currently, the maximum sustained wind speeds lie around 110 km/h, so just below hurricane level.
 

hawk1911

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Out of interest why is it no longer a hurricane if the power has not reduced? What defines a hurricane?
Its all to do with sustained wind speeds which, in most countries, is the average (mean) wind speed over a 10 minute period (N.B. the USA only uses a 1 minute average, so figures quoted in the USA tend to be higher).

Using the Saffir-Simpson scale, there are 5 categories of hurricane (all based on the sustained wind speed:
Cat 1 74-95 mph
Cat 2 96-110
Cat 3 111-129
Cat 4 130-156
Cat 5 157+

Below a Cat 1 Hurricane, there is a tropical storm, with sustained wind speeds of 39-73 mph.
 

pemma

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Orangey yellow cloud over Cheshire currently. Apparently due to the storm dragging Saharan dust with it. So if the storm causes disruption to public transport the operators may have to organise a replacement camel service. ;)
 

xotGD

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A hurricane/tropical storm is a warm-core system. Ophelia has transitioned to a cold-core system, so is no longer tropical and so is an ex-hurricane regardless of the wind speed.
 

al78

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Out of interest why is it no longer a hurricane if the power has not reduced? What defines a hurricane?

There is more to a hurricane than just the mean wind speed. It has to be tropical in origin, be fueled by the latent heat released from deep convection in a background environment where temperatures are horizontally homogeneous. Once the storm moves into the middle latitudes it moves into an area with horizontal temperature gradients, begins to interact with the jet stream which destroys the organised convection around the eye of the storm. The storm becomes asymmetric in appearance, frontal features develop and the wind field expands but the small core of intense winds is no longer evident. The storm is now getting its energy from the equator-to-pole temperature gradient and is therefore declared extra-tropical (i.e. a standard mid-latitude autumnal low with gales).

Unfortunately the media have a habit of overusing the term "hurricane", sometimes applying it anytime a weather station records a peak gust above the 74 mph threshold. This is wrong. Firstly, hurricane force refers to the 10-minute mean wind speed, not the gusts. Secondly, just because a storm has hurricane force winds does not mean it is a hurricane. An analogy is that a car has the weight of an elephant, but you wouldn't call a car an elephant.
 

cuccir

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:(

Coming back to rail, Enterprise cross-border services now terminated for the day due to the closure of Dublin Connolly
 

hawk1911

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There is more to a hurricane than just the mean wind speed. It has to be tropical in origin, be fueled by the latent heat released from deep convection in a background environment where temperatures are horizontally homogeneous. Once the storm moves into the middle latitudes it moves into an area with horizontal temperature gradients, begins to interact with the jet stream which destroys the organised convection around the eye of the storm. The storm becomes asymmetric in appearance, frontal features develop and the wind field expands but the small core of intense winds is no longer evident. The storm is now getting its energy from the equator-to-pole temperature gradient and is therefore declared extra-tropical (i.e. a standard mid-latitude autumnal low with gales).

Unfortunately the media have a habit of overusing the term "hurricane", sometimes applying it anytime a weather station records a peak gust above the 74 mph threshold. This is wrong. Firstly, hurricane force refers to the 10-minute mean wind speed, not the gusts. Secondly, just because a storm has hurricane force winds does not mean it is a hurricane. An analogy is that a car has the weight of an elephant, but you wouldn't call a car an elephant.
Agreed.

And just to confuse, 'Hurricane' is also a descriptive term at the top end of the good old Beaufort scale.
 

RJ21

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There has been disruption on our side of the Irish Sea, I have seen a couple of cancellations to Manchester Airport caused by the line being closed to allow an aircraft to land after declaring an emergency. Apparently the dust in the atmosphere isn't doing good things to aircraft. Latest was an inbound EasyJet flight from Alicante.
 

robertclark125

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Dublin Bus suspended ALL services at 10:00. They are looking at a possible resumption of services at 19:00. Bus Eireann has suspended all services for the day. Ulsterbus and Metro Belfast are operating as normal, but there may be delays due to the weather conditions. Some cross border services are suspended however.

Luas has been suspended for the day, with no resumption until 05:30 tomorrow. Air and sea travel is also disrupted, apparently flights from Manchester have been affected, as well as Dublin, Cork, and Shannon.
 

Darandio

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apparently flights from Manchester have been affected, as well as Dublin, Cork, and Shannon.

I've never seen as many in a short space of time, many declaring emergencies following the smell of burning. This has also been reported on the ground, a result of winds carrying the odour and debris from wildfires in Spain and Portugal.

The latest is a Virgin 747 from Gatwick, made it as far as Exeter and has declared an emergency before heading back.
 

Bletchleyite

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Is the sand in the air potentially able to cause the same issues as the volcanic ash, causing abrasion damage in engines?

In Bletchley the sky outside is so orangey-yellow that my warm white spots in the lounge look more like GWR's horrible daylight lighting in contrast!
 

Antman

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It'g good to hear nearly every report on the storm referring to it as 'hurricane Ophelia downgraded' or 'tropical storm that was Ophelia'. That's making sure that we don't have a mirepresentation of forecasters words just for the sensationalist headlines, as was the case with Michael Fish in 1987 (and ever since).

Nobody is sensationalising anything, this is for real and sadly there has already been one fatality after a tree fell onto a car.
 

aylesbury

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The sky here is a very curious colour due to the fires in Portugal and sand from the Sahara wind is also getting up but no rain ,weird weather.
 

Mojo

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The sky here is a very curious colour due to the fires in Portugal and sand from the Sahara wind is also getting up but no rain ,weird weather.
Yep, same all over London and many other parts of the country too including the South West and Wales, according to people I know and posts on Twitter. The weather here has been unseasonally warm the last few days, particularly in the early mornings where it's been about 17 degrees at 5am! Didn't experience any of the 24 degrees today myself, my Snapchat is currently showing it's 21 degrees but still strangely warm given it's mid-Oct.
 
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bangor-toad

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It's just after 4pm and in Bangor (Northern Ireland) it's very windy.
The trees are bending more than I've seen before and I'm actually concerned one may hit the house. There's quite a lot of debris blowing about.

All the schools & public services (apart from Translink) were closed this morning and we were sent home at midday. The trains home then were packed - I've never seen midday trains so busy.
Right now there are almost no cars on the roads.

The warnings may have been a bit dramatic but this level of wind and debris in the middle of the normal rush hour would have been unpleasantly challenging.

Stay safe & sheltered!
Mr Toad
 
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