West of post-electrified Swansea

[Rhydgaled]

Or just scrap this token service beyond Swansea? How useful is it really? (other than the usual "putting the town on the map" stuff that politicians trot out)

My main objections to removing the services beyond Swansea are the loss of capacity, reduction in through services to Cardiff, and loss of through services beyond Newport other than up the Marches (which is geographically daft, even if it is operationally sensible) and reduction in service quality (loss of buffet cars and 1st class and and probably a downgrade from intercity-standard stock to very-noisy underfloor-engined units, probably inner-suburban ones (150s)).

With that in mind, taking away the Paddington service and replacing it with a diesel LHCS service to Bristol/Portsmouth/London Waterloo formed of 6 mark3s wouldn't be nearly as bad as taking away the London service and leaving ATW to fill the gap with services to Swansea using its class 150 fleet.

As for extending electrification to Carmarthen, unless you continued to run trains from the west through to Cardiff (under the wires unless the SDL isn't wired) you really would kill off any hope of rail ever being competive for journeys between Pembrokeshire and anything east of Swansea (if the time spent changing trains doesn't kill that market too). As for frequency, trains every 90-minutes might be ok for the Pembroke Dock branch, but I think the Milford Haven line should really be hourly.

Platform capacity at Carmarthen shouldn't be a problem. There are three platforms already (I know normally only 2 are used) However, I think the other face of the island platform is used for stabling and I think I saw a DMU pulling in there once when the normal platforms were occupied (one by the steam loco Tornado and it's long train). There is also the bay platform next to the buildings (this bay has track, but I have recently realised that track is not actually connected to the operational lines), which might just be long enough to take a 2-car unit.

The morning service up to London does provide a useful commuter train and business train to Cardiff and Swansea. But the return working has been pretty empty every time I've caught it from Swansea back to Llanelli. This is because it runs far too late to be a really useful return business service from Cardiff or commuter train from Swansea.

I've never manged to use either service myself sadly (I've got one of the Pembroke Dock Intercity services though), but that's the impression I got from looking at the times the Carmarthen services runs at on weekdays. I'd be supprised if ATW could provide enough capacity for the 07:30 ex-Carmarthen, shame there aren't connecting DMUs from the Pembrokeshire branches though.

Also, the usage figures for Tenby station far outstrip (considering the population of the town) other stations in the area I think. The London services must have some effect on that (or are vital in providing sufficent capacity for it).

Apart from that, I cna see some merit in local services from Pembroke Dock, Milford Haven and Fishguard starting and terminating at Carmarthen. It may improve punctuality, given the amount of sinle line sections - if the services could be contained they would be less susceptible to knock ond elays from further afield, and long distance services would be less susceptibel to delays in south west Wales.

I would hope delays will be less problematic once Gowerton re-double is complete.

After all, it seems that those who are able to will drive anyway, as the line cannot compete on speed, frequency or flexibility with the A40 and M4.

For journeys from Fishguard and Milford to Swansea it doesn't look like the time differance is that bad, east of Swansea is where rail loses out (and on the Pembroke Dock branch), but maybe with the Swansea District Line it doesn't have to be that way.

To sum up, I think an enhanced DMU service (including 2-car express services to Cardiff via the SDL using 158s) from Pembs plus long-distance LHCS or IC125 trains replacing Paddington services might be better than trying to extend the wires to Carmarthen*.

* Hang on a sec, here's an idea that might just work:

• Electrify to Carmarthen, not via Swansea but via the SDL
• Upgrade the SDL to higher speeds while you're at it
• Have DMU services from Pembrokeshire to Swansea
• Route Carmarthen - London trains via the SDL, and have Carmarthen - Cardiff EMU services running that way too.
• LHCS trains from Pembroke Dock to Bristol or Waterloo in summer to replace the Paddington - Pembroke Dock trains

 

[Greenback]

My main objections to removing the services beyond Swansea are the loss of capacity, reduction in through services to Cardiff, and loss of through services beyond Newport other than up the Marches (which is geographically daft, even if it is operationally sensible) and reduction in service quality (loss of buffet cars and 1st class and and probably a downgrade from intercity-standard stock to very-noisy underfloor-engined units, probably inner-suburban ones (150s)).[/QUOYE]

I agree that the loss of through trains would inconvenience some passengers from west of Carmarthen. But it's not possible to please everyone, so the railway needs to concentrate its resources on the bigger flows. West of Carmarthen there are relatively small flows (some may argue that Swansea/Cardiff - Carmarthen is not that big) which simply don't justify through trains from east of Carmarthen ( possibly Summer Sats apart). At the moment they run more for operational convenience than customer demand.

As for the 1st class and buffet facilities, as these exist on only one train a day (bar weekends), it is more of a status symbol than something that is of great practical use to the majority of passengers on the line.

With that in mind, taking away the Paddington service and replacing it with a diesel LHCS service to Bristol/Portsmouth/London Waterloo formed of 6 mark3s wouldn't be nearly as bad as taking away the London service and leaving ATW to fill the gap with services to Swansea using its class 150 fleet.

I would predict that such a service (running via the SDL?) would barely load to 25%. Even with the commuter traffic to Swansea the HST service on leaving Llanelli is barely a third full on average!

As for extending electrification to Carmarthen, unless you continued to run trains from the west through to Cardiff (under the wires unless the SDL isn't wired) you really would kill off any hope of rail ever being competive for journeys between Pembrokeshire and anything east of Swansea (if the time spent changing trains doesn't kill that market too). As for frequency, trains every 90-minutes might be ok for the Pembroke Dock branch, but I think the Milford Haven line should really be hourly.

Rail is not competitive with road between west wales and Cardiff. It hasn't been since the completion of the M4 and the improvements to the A40 in the 1970's and 1980's. It never can be again, for reasons already stated in this thread and in others.

Using the speed v road argument to justify through trains is like trying to catch a cloud!

Platform capacity at Carmarthen shouldn't be a problem. There are three platforms already (I know normally only 2 are used) However, I think the other face of the island platform is used for stabling and I think I saw a DMU pulling in there once when the normal platforms were occupied (one by the steam loco Tornado and it's long train). There is also the bay platform next to the buildings (this bay has track, but I have recently realised that track is not actually connected to the operational lines), which might just be long enough to take a 2-car unit.

You are correct. I have seen the other face of the island platform used for stabling when on the night train from Fishguard. That, and the bay platform, could be returne dto passenger use if required, but at what cost? Even the simplest thing now seems to cost a fortune with UK Railways!

I've never manged to use either service myself sadly (I've got one of the Pembroke Dock Intercity services though), but that's the impression I got from looking at the times the Carmarthen services runs at on weekdays. I'd be supprised if ATW could provide enough capacity for the 07:30 ex-Carmarthen, shame there aren't connecting DMUs from the Pembrokeshire branches though.

It is a useful service for residents between Carmarthen and Swansea who want to go to Swansea or Cardiff, as well as the odd few that go through to Reading and London.

Although I haven't seen it more than about a third full (there's usually about 5 of us in Coach A), a third full HST would still fit into a 175. It would be a bit more uncomfortable though!

Also, the usage figures for Tenby station far outstrip (considering the population of the town) other stations in the area I think. The London services must have some effect on that (or are vital in providing sufficent capacity for it).

Tenby is the most popular destination on the line to Pembroke Dock. It is still somewhere that day trippers from Swansea love to go, for example.

There are visitors from lLondon, yes, but the question for me is how many of these would be deterred from using rail by the lack of a through service?

I would hope delays will be less problematic once Gowerton re-double is complete.

Me too! It's very frustrating having to sit at the either end of the single line sectionw aiting for another service to pass...

For journeys from Fishguard and Milford to Swansea it doesn't look like the time differance is that bad, east of Swansea is where rail loses out (and on the Pembroke Dock branch), but maybe with the Swansea District Line it doesn't have to be that way.

Without a rather large investment in a Morriston station, the trains running on the SDL will be almost empty. The line was built so that coal trains could avoid Swansea, ther ehas never been a demand for passenger services on the line.

To sum up, I think an enhanced DMU service (including 2-car express services to Cardiff via the SDL using 158s) from Pembs plus long-distance LHCS or IC125 trains replacing Paddington services might be better than trying to extend the wires to Carmarthen*.

* Hang on a sec, here's an idea that might just work:

• Electrify to Carmarthen, not via Swansea but via the SDL
• Upgrade the SDL to higher speeds while you're at it
• Have DMU services from Pembrokeshire to Swansea
• Route Carmarthen - London trains via the SDL, and have Carmarthen - Cardiff EMU services running that way too.
• LHCS trains from Pembroke Dock to Bristol or Waterloo in summer to replace the Paddington - Pembroke Dock trains

There will not be electrification to Carmarthen. At all. Things will continue much as they are. Either a HST will run under the wires to link Carmarthen and Pembroke Dock with London, or, more likely in my view, the services will be cut.

There will be no LHCS. I wish there would be, but TOC's only use them as a last resort. They are too costly to be effective under the present structure of the railways.

 

[tbtc]

here's an idea that might just work:

• Electrify to Carmarthen, not via Swansea but via the SDL
• Upgrade the SDL to higher speeds while you're at it
• Have DMU services from Pembrokeshire to Swansea
• Route Carmarthen - London trains via the SDL, and have Carmarthen - Cardiff EMU services running that way too.
• LHCS trains from Pembroke Dock to Bristol or Waterloo in summer to replace the Paddington - Pembroke Dock trains

You'd electrify the Swansea District Line but not the line from Swansea to Gowerton?

All this for one train a day from London to Carmarthen?

 

[Greenback]

You'd electrify the Swansea District Line but not the line from Swansea to Gowerton?

All this for one train a day from London to Carmarthen?

No, Rhydgaled proposes an hourly EMU service as well between Cardiff and Carmarthen.

These are the trains that will be virtually empty in my view, as the rail market between Carmarthen and Cardiff is not huge, and even if rail does compete with road time wise (to Cardiff city centre if not the rest of the city), it still cannot compete with the flexibility and frequency afforded by the car.

As I said, a station at Morriston to serve the northern suburbs of Swansea, and the Swanse aValley may help, but otherwise it's a non starter.

 

[Rhydgaled]

You'd electrify the Swansea District Line but not the line from Swansea to Gowerton?

All this for one train a day from London to Carmarthen?

That suggestion was in responce to Ivo's suggested frequencies:

1tph Carmarthen to Bristol/Bath (assuming the proposed Swansea to Bristol/Bath service)
1tpd London to Carmarthen

I had read it quickly, and thought the suggestion was an hourly Carmarthen - London service and an hourly Carmarthen - Bristol/Bath service. I would have run both of these via the SDL. However, having re-read it I realise that it said 1tpd not 1tph as I had thought. Therefore, that idea of mine was useless. Let the wires stop at Swansea and don't bother trying to wire to Carmarthen, the Pembrokshire branches weaken the case for wires to Carmarthen.

I would predict that such a service (running via the SDL?) would barely load to 25%. Even with the commuter traffic to Swansea the HST service on leaving Llanelli is barely a third full on average!

Are you referring to the 6-coach LHCS trains? These were suggested as a replacement for the Paddington trains, linking Pembroke Dock and Carmarthen to Bristol. There main purpose would be to avoid the loss of capacity removing the London trains would cause, and as such they (the 07:30 from Carmarthen at the very least) would still have to go via Swansea. This service would only be 2 or 3 trips a day each way, the main service leaving Carmarthen being 2-car 158s over the SDL to Cardiff and 156s (or re-geared 75mph 175s) running to Swansea (where they would terminate, the only trains from either direction that would go into Swansea without terminating would be the 2/3 trains per day LHCS).

Rail is not competitive with road between west wales and Cardiff. It hasn't been since the completion of the M4 and the improvements to the A40 in the 1970's and 1980's. It never can be again, for reasons already stated in this thread and in others.

Using the speed v road argument to justify through trains is like trying to catch a cloud!

Trains from the Milford Haven and Fishguard branches to Swansea still might be time-competative, and as I have said I have hopes that the Swansea District Line could make the journey to Cardiff fast enough at some point in the future. I agree that the route between Carmarthen and Cardiff via Swansea High Street can never be competative, and as such I am saying trains going into High Street station should, in general, terminate there.

You are correct. I have seen the other face of the island platform used for stabling when on the night train from Fishguard. That, and the bay platform, could be returne dto passenger use if required, but at what cost? Even the simplest thing now seems to cost a fortune with UK Railways!

When Tornado was there, I assumed the unit I saw pulling into the other side of the island was in service. If so (I could be wrong off course) the only cost of using that more regularly would be putting up platform numbers and perhaps ajusting the anouncment system.

There are visitors from lLondon, yes, but the question for me is how many of these would be deterred from using rail by the lack of a through service?

As I said, it isn't really the link from London I am worried about, it is a link through to England. Reading, Waterloo, Portsmouth, Bristol, any would do, but starting it at Cardiff is making it a bit harder to get to, starting it at Swansea is likely to add an extra change (at Cardiff) for many tourists from England.

Without a rather large investment in a Morriston station, the trains running on the SDL will be almost empty. The line was built so that coal trains could avoid Swansea, ther ehas never been a demand for passenger services on the line.

That's not what I've read. As far as I know, the SDL was built to speed up journey times on express from London to Fishguard. The days of such trains are long gone, but the line was built to speed up the rail journey, hence using it today (with a 2-car 158) is the one and only chance for rail to be competative with road for journeys from Carmarthen and points west to Cardiff and some points east. Openning a Morriston station would of course add time to the journey, and hence (unless you can put some really stunning linespeed improvements in place) defeat the object of using the SDL in the first place.

Even though the SDL has been allowed to deteriate towards freight-only standards, with linespeeds that wouldn't be found on the express passenger line it was built as, running a 158 over it would still knock 10-15 minutes off current Carmarthen - Cardiff timings. If it was maintained to passenger standard, what could it be capable of? A 20 minute saving on London - Cardiff is costing £1bn of electrification. You can save 15 on Carmarthen - Cardiff without capital cost by using the SDL, and might save 20 (or more) if money were to be spent upgrading the SDL.

There will not be electrification to Carmarthen. At all. Things will continue much as they are. Either a HST will run under the wires to link Carmarthen and Pembroke Dock with London, or, more likely in my view, the services will be cut.

I agree with the first point, wires to Carmarthen won't happen. Carmarthen, as things stand, will get a moronic Japanese railbus from Paddington, while as you say Pembroke Dock will suffer cuts or require alot of under wires running from an IC125. Personally, I think it would be better to remove the London trains from west of Swansea, but only if a suitable replacment is put in place (a 2+5 or 2+6 IC125, or some other form of LHCS with 5 or 6 coaches running from Carmarthen (and Pembroke Dock in summer) to Bristol via Cardiff and Swansea).

 

[Greenback]

Are you referring to the 6-coach LHCS trains? These were suggested as a replacement for the Paddington trains, linking Pembroke Dock and Carmarthen to Bristol. There main purpose would be to avoid the loss of capacity removing the London trains would cause, and as such they (the 07:30 from Carmarthen at the very least) would still have to go via Swansea.

But the capcity simply isn't needed west of Swansea. 60% of the capcity is not used (and that's being generous). Although the service is useful in the morning, diesel stock released by electrifying the SWML line and Valleys should allow any strenghtening of services that might be necessary (though I can't see that would be).

The main benefit of the morning HST is that people have plenty space, but that is a bit of a luxury in these cash strapped times, don't you think?

This service would only be 2 or 3 trips a day each way, the main service leaving Carmarthen being 2-car 158s over the SDL to Cardiff and 156s (or re-geared 75mph 175s) running to Swansea (where they would terminate, the only trains from either direction that would go into Swansea without terminating would be the 2/3 trains per day LHCS).

This brings us to the perennial question of how useful 1,2 or 3 trains per day services actually are, in comparison with regular interconnecting services. I think that a more regular EMU service between bristol and Swanse awould be far better. But I think that is best left for another time!

Trains from the Milford Haven and Fishguard branches to Swansea still might be time-competative, and as I have said I have hopes that the Swansea District Line could make the journey to Cardiff fast enough at some point in the future.

Fast enough for what? It will never be competitive with the car, unless someone lives about two minutes from Carmarthen station!

I agree that the route between Carmarthen and Cardiff via Swansea High Street can never be competative, and as such I am saying trains going into High Street station should, in general, terminate there.

There's nothing wrong with trains terminating in High St.

When Tornado was there, I assumed the unit I saw pulling into the other side of the island was in service. If so (I could be wrong off course) the only cost of using that more regularly would be putting up platform numbers and perhaps ajusting the anouncment system.

It may well be used occasionally. But I dread to think how much these seemingly changes will cost!

As I said, it isn't really the link from London I am worried about, it is a link through to England. Reading, Waterloo, Portsmouth, Bristol, any would do, but starting it at Cardiff is making it a bit harder to get to, starting it at Swansea is likely to add an extra change (at Cardiff) for many tourists from England.

The number of changes is a fair point. The more changes a passenger has to make the less attractive rail travel can be, particularly for irregular travellers.

However, with the electric trains to London starting at Swansea, and a regular EMU service to Bristol, most of southern England would only be two changes away from Tenby. And not just on Saturdays! I'm not sure that that is potentially much worse than now, where apart from the Summer Saturday direct trains, many places require a change of train.

That's not what I've read. As far as I know, the SDL was built to speed up journey times on express from London to Fishguard. The days of such trains are long gone, but the line was built to speed up the rail journey, hence using it today (with a 2-car 158) is the one and only chance for rail to be competative with road for journeys from Carmarthen and points west to Cardiff and some points east. Openning a Morriston station would of course add time to the journey, and hence (unless you can put some really stunning linespeed improvements in place) defeat the object of using the SDL in the first place.

My book on the history of the Great Western Railway suggests that the GWR lines to and from Swansea Docks were congested. The SDL meant that coal trains from Carmarthenshire, Ammanford, Gwaun Cae Gurwen etc could reach the docks to the east of Swansea quicker, and without going anywhere near High St station.

It may have been a fringe benefit that FIshguard trains would be faster, but coal and other freight was where the money was. In any case, the GWR's interest in Fishguard stemmed from a desire to run a Transatantic steamer service from the port. This interest only lasted a couple of years, before attention was switched to Ireland.

Even though the SDL has been allowed to deteriate towards freight-only standards, with linespeeds that wouldn't be found on the express passenger line it was built as, running a 158 over it would still knock 10-15 minutes off current Carmarthen - Cardiff timings. If it was maintained to passenger standard, what could it be capable of? A 20 minute saving on London - Cardiff is costing £1bn of electrification. You can save 15 on Carmarthen - Cardiff without capital cost by using the SDL, and might save 20 (or more) if money were to be spent upgrading the SDL.

I maintain that there is no business case for runningfaster trains between Cardiff and Carmarthen missing out Swansea. I'm afraid you cna't alter the fact that the SWML is used by many more people than the line to Carmarthen. The demographics are compeltely different.

I agree with the first point, wires to Carmarthen won't happen. Carmarthen, as things stand, will get a moronic Japanese railbus from Paddington, while as you say Pembroke Dock will suffer cuts or require alot of under wires running from an IC125. Personally, I think it would be better to remove the London trains from west of Swansea, but only if a suitable replacment is put in place (a 2+5 or 2+6 IC125, or some other form of LHCS with 5 or 6 coaches running from Carmarthen (and Pembroke Dock in summer) to Bristol via Cardiff and Swansea).

Through trains from anywhere west of Swansea, whether LHCS or not, will have to run under the wires. This may be what prevents through trains. It is up to those way above me to decide, I personally would like to see them continue as now, as I use them to Manchester quite a bit.