What might the Government do about Christmas?

Bletchleyite

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With the local lockdown announced in and around Greater Manchester seemingly aimed at preventing spread at Eid parties, what might happen about Christmas?

Should the Government start mentally preparing us for a need to delay family celebrations this year?

I can't see how a normal family Christmas can go ahead without massive spread, myself. We can only hope a vaccine is ready by then, but there's no certainty, it pretty much relies on the Oxford one working.

Any thoughts?
 
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philosopher

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With the local lockdown announced in and around Greater Manchester seemingly aimed at preventing spread at Eid parties, what might happen about Christmas?

Should the Government start mentally preparing us for a need to delay family celebrations this year?

I can't see how a normal family Christmas can go ahead without massive spread, myself. We can only hope a vaccine is ready by then, but there's no certainty, it pretty much relies on the Oxford one working.

Any thoughts?
Father Christmas will have quite a few fines to pay!
 

Huntergreed

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In all honesty, I can’t see people allowing the government to stop them from having their normal Christmas, and regardless of what restrictions they try to impose I think many will simply ignore these anyway, unless they are of course legislated.
 

Bantamzen

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In all honesty, I can’t see people allowing the government to stop them from having their normal Christmas, and regardless of what restrictions they try to impose I think many will simply ignore these anyway, unless they are of course legislated.
I'd tend to agree with that, and even if it was legislated for I cannot see many people locking themselves away from family.

I'm sure some sort of story can be made up, e.g. he distances by dropping presents down the chimney/leaving them in the back garden or something.
Thank you Mr Gringe.
 

AdamWW

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I'm actually starting to think you might actually be enjoying dreaming up ways for people to be miserable.....
If it helps, I see a quite a few people here who seem to be convincing themselves that the overall situation is much better than I think the evidence is telling us.
 

carlberry

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With the local lockdown announced in and around Greater Manchester seemingly aimed at preventing spread at Eid parties, what might happen about Christmas?

Should the Government start mentally preparing us for a need to delay family celebrations this year?

I can't see how a normal family Christmas can go ahead without massive spread, myself. We can only hope a vaccine is ready by then, but there's no certainty, it pretty much relies on the Oxford one working.

Any thoughts?
Even if a vaccine candidate was announced today for production (i.e. had cleared all trials and proved successful and (somehow) we'd identified that it would offer protection for a decent amount of time) it would be difficult to get enough production to protect the more vulnerable before Christmas. And that would be assuming that the UK was able to reserve enough supply given that in a lot of cases we'd be competing with other countries that haven't shown themselves to be acting in the interest of international cooperation recently!

It didn't help when Boris started spouting on about 'It'll all be over by Christmas', however he does like copying quotes from history even if he dosent remember the context.


Mr Grinch Esq.
 

Scrotnig

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It didn't help when Boris started spouting on about 'It'll all be over by Christmas', however he does like copying quotes from history even if he dosent remember the context.
Don't like Johnson but he didn't actually say that.

He said he hoped things would be a lot nearer to normal by Christmas. Which is entirely reasonable.
 

Bantamzen

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:) I prefer to call it "being realistic about the mess we find ourselves in".
No, judging by some of your other ideas across the board I'd definitely say you are enjoying it. Your clipboard and lanyard are in the post....

If it helps, I see a quite a few people here who seem to be convincing themselves that the overall situation is much better than I think the evidence is telling us.
And conversely there are lots of people talking up the seriousness of the virus despite what the data is telling us.

There are an awful lot of people who are exactly like that, as has become clear in recent months.
Indeed, I suspect some of these are like that because it suits them & stuff everyone else.
 

AdamWW

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And conversely there are lots of people talking up the seriousness of the virus despite what the data is telling us.
Well I don't think we're going to agree on how serious the situation is.

Though those of us who think it's still serious don't have to invoke mass hysteria, conspiracy theories or the assumption the the government (indeed many governments) like the sense of power to explain why they are still insisting on restrictions.
 

Huntergreed

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Question is, will Santa have to quarantine when he comes here for 2 weeks before the 24th? If so we could be looking at a later Christmas than usual!
 

CaptainHaddock

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If it helps, I see a quite a few people here who seem to be convincing themselves that the overall situation is much better than I think the evidence is telling us.
Then you clearly don't understand the "evidence". The rate at which the death rate is falling suggests we'll be down to zero within a few weeks so the idea any restrictions might still be around at Christmas is laughable. Even if there were, most people would ignore them; I know I would.
 

PTR 444

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Thinking about it, the week between Christmas and New Year is probably the best time of year to have a lockdown. Schools are closed, business hours are reduced, the weather is normally awful and most people just stay at home with their relatives anyway.

Just a thought...
 

yorksrob

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Thinking about it, the week between Christmas and New Year is probably the best time of year to have a lockdown. Schools are closed, business hours are reduced, the weather is normally awful and most people just stay at home with their relatives anyway.

Just a thought...
It's the "with their relatives" bit that's the problem !
 

AdamWW

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Then you clearly don't understand the "evidence". The rate at which the death rate is falling suggests we'll be down to zero within a few weeks so the idea any restrictions might still be around at Christmas is laughable. Even if there were, most people would ignore them; I know I would.
I do not think it works like that.

Death rates lag infections - people can last for months in hospital and then die.

Infection rates are not falling - possibly going up now.

Once they go up, without action being taken they are likely to go up faster and faster (exponential growth).

Then you see it in the death figures, and by now you need drastic action to deal with it, e.g. another lockdown.

If there is just one infected person left and we go back to normal, they are likely to infect 3 or 4 other people, they in turn infect 3 or 4, etc. etc. etc.

Unless we can deal with it by track and trace or local lockdowns, it's not long before it's everywhere.

And we are nowhere near the point where it's just one person left.
 

carlberry

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Then you clearly don't understand the "evidence". The rate at which the death rate is falling suggests we'll be down to zero within a few weeks so the idea any restrictions might still be around at Christmas is laughable. Even if there were, most people would ignore them; I know I would.
What evidence do you have that the death rate is falling at this rate? For the last few weeks the UK rolling average has suggested approaching a plateau however even a best case for it suggests several months before it becomes single figures. The first wave of the infection is still flaring up in Asia and Europe hasnt finished in North America and has barely started in Africa all of which also effect us given the enthusiasm that the UK has for keeping air travel going.
 

carlberry

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Not if they stay in the same house for a week and don’t then go on to visit someone else!
It's a numbers thing. Lots of the population will do it, after 3-4 weeks of visiting crowded shops/office parties etc. They'll each have a slightly higher chance of having caught something. They then come together with people they haven't seen for a while, with quite a few being elderly. 2 weeks later the results will be in with a spike of infections (compared with whatever it was in December). After that the infections should slowly reduce again and, as long as the Nightingale hospitals are still available then the NHS will cope (assuming staff available). A similar thing happens with flu each year, even if people don't usually put it on their presents list!
 

Bobdogs

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Discussing this C word in July? Can't you be like Harrods and wait until August. I don't mind saying I can't stand the thing and all the associated nonsense.
 

BJames

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What will they do about Christmas? They can try and tell people to limit their indoor socialising and to stay in "bubbles".

What will actually happen about Christmas? People will do exactly what they want, where they want and how they want - because by then we would have been under restrictions for 10 months and people will just want to have their christmas. There will be some people who abide by the restrictions, as there have been all along. There will be others who choose to enjoy their christmas at still relatively low risk.

I do sympathise and feel for those in the vulnerable category, more and more people will likely meet up at Christmas while they won't be able to if there is no treatment or vaccine ready.
 

bramling

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Discussing this C word in July? Can't you be like Harrods and wait until August. I don't mind saying I can't stand the thing and all the associated nonsense.
+1!

It is a little early to be thinking about Christmas yet, who knows what could have happened by then, we might be in the middle of a huge new wave, herd immunity might have occurred or we might have a vaccine...
 

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