What might the Government do about Christmas?

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birchesgreen

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I suspect what the government is doing about christmas at the moment is saying plenty of hail Marys and hoping the virus has all gone away by then. Individual decision makers will be hoping they have moved onto other jobs by then.
 

Tetchytyke

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With the local lockdown announced in and around Greater Manchester seemingly aimed at preventing spread at Eid parties, what might happen about Christmas?
Nothing, because this lockdown is targeted at Muslims as part of the government's dog-whistle tactics of blaming them for Covid.

The more this goes on, the more I think Cummings is deliberately causing economic and social meltdown for the benefit of his Russian paymasters. Everything seems to be designed to cause discord.
 

al78

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Then you clearly don't understand the "evidence". The rate at which the death rate is falling suggests we'll be down to zero within a few weeks so the idea any restrictions might still be around at Christmas is laughable.
Not if there is a big second wave in the autumn, which is what the concern is now and why we have the restrictions to try and minimise the risk of it happening. Whether those restrictions are over the top or insufficient is a matter of debate. We won't know the true answer until we get there. If there is no second wave, either they were sufficient or over the top, if there is a second wave, they were either inadequate or we had no chance of stopping it.
 

CaptainHaddock

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What evidence do you have that the death rate is falling at this rate?
Have a look at this graph and see if you can spot a trend.



(Image shows the UK covid-19 death rate falling from over 1,000 at its peak to the current level of less than 100 most days over the past week)
 

HSTEd

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The government will decree that you should not visit relatives.

They will then start an ad campaign saying that disobedience murders some photogenic old people.

This was always inevitable once the government decided to take this path.
 

carlberry

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Have a look at this graph and see if you can spot a trend.



(Image shows the UK covid-19 death rate falling from over 1,000 at its peak to the current level of less than 100 most days over the past week)
Yes, it illustrates the point I made:
For the last few weeks the UK rolling average has suggested approaching a plateau however even a best case for it suggests several months before it becomes single figures.
For the whole of June and July it's moved slightly down and the best case is that this will carry on. The only way to get it to fall faster is to go back into lockdown again (assuming no treatment or mutation).
 

CaptainHaddock

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Yes, it illustrates the point I made:


For the whole of June and July it's moved slightly down and the best case is that this will carry on. The only way to get it to fall faster is to go back into lockdown again (assuming no treatment or mutation).
Well it was single figures last Sunday so that proves your second point wrong!

Even though the rate may be slowing even the most fervent lockdown enthusiast must accept that less and less people are dying of the virus which suggests either it's dying out naturally or it never was a serious threat to the lives of most non-vulnerable people.
 

AdamWW

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Even though the rate may be slowing even the most fervent lockdown enthusiast must accept that less and less people are dying of the virus which suggests either it's dying out naturally or it never was a serious threat to the lives of most non-vulnerable people.
Well I wouldn't count myself as a lockdown "enthusiast", fervent or otherwise, but I don't accept your interpretation of the figures.

If the virus were dying out we would see that infection rates are going down in the UK. Sadly they aren't. So it's not that one.

Not sure why the alternative would be that it was never a serious threat.

Of course the infection rate could be steady but it is becoming less lethal. But I think it would be hard to see from that plot as it includes anyone who has been fighting it in hospital for months and finally succumbs (and I think also someone who had a positive test months ago, wasn't seriously ill, but was in a fatal accident).
 

DavidB

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To those who are all for every restriction under the sun, do you seriously believe that even with a vaccine this virus can be wiped out in a timescale of less than a decade? Because there is no medical precedent for this, and no recent medical advances which suggest it's suddenly become possible if it wasn't before.
 

Yew

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With exponentials, it's probably best to look at the ratio of this week, divided by last week (N[t]/N[t-1]) to view the decay rate
 

carlberry

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Well it was single figures last Sunday so that proves your second point wrong!

Even though the rate may be slowing even the most fervent lockdown enthusiast must accept that less and less people are dying of the virus which suggests either it's dying out naturally or it never was a serious threat to the lives of most non-vulnerable people.
The rolling average is 60ish this week, I made no statement about daily figures as they're completely random. Yes the rate is slowing down, I never questioned that just the statement that 'The rate at which the death rate is falling suggests we'll be down to zero within a few weeks '. On current trends even the weekend daily figures are unlikely to get to that point in a few weeks. It'll be some way until England can claim the string of 0 figures that Scotland has had recently.
 

adc82140

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Well I wouldn't count myself as a lockdown "enthusiast", fervent or otherwise, but I don't accept your interpretation of the figures.

If the virus were dying out we would see that infection rates are going down in the UK. Sadly they aren't. So it's not that one.

Not sure why the alternative would be that it was never a serious threat.

Of course the infection rate could be steady but it is becoming less lethal. But I think it would be hard to see from that plot as it includes anyone who has been fighting it in hospital for months and finally succumbs (and I think also someone who had a positive test months ago, wasn't seriously ill, but was in a fatal accident).
There are very few people who sit in hospital seriously ill for months. The whole point put across early on is how quickly you progressed from hospital admission to ventilator to morgue slab.
 

AdamWW

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There are very few people who sit in hospital seriously ill for months. The whole point put across early on is how quickly you progressed from hospital admission to ventilator to morgue slab.
True. But we're now looking at quite small figures compared to the number in hospital at the peak - and, so far as I know - the English PHE figures include anybody who dies and has had a positive Covid test in the past.

Anyhow there are much better ways of working out how likely someone with a positive test is likely to die than looking at that graph.
 

ChrisC

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Nothing, because this lockdown is targeted at Muslims as part of the government's dog-whistle tactics of blaming them for Covid.
The current lockdown in the north of England may possibly be connected with Eide to stop large family gatherings. However, the previous main national lockdown was certainly not targeted at Muslims. Indeed I’ve heard many people say that the somewhat draconian restrictions that were placed upon the Church of England were actually ensuring that all faiths were treated equally and perhaps even specifically not to upset the Muslims by not favouring Christians. Churches were closed just before Holy Week and Easter which for many Christians is actually a more important season of the year than Christmas.

Times have changed so much over the last 100 years from the days when we were considered to be a Christian country. If this lockdown had happened 50+ years ago would we have seen the Church of England Parish Church in every town and village throughout the land have their doors securely locked for 4 months even for funerals? I’m not sure that this would have happened especially in closely knit small rural communities. Even during the most difficult times our parish churches were open for private prayer. One of the reasons why this was not to happen during the lockdown was that Muslims do not have private individual prayer in their mosques, but only large communal gatherings. All places of worship had to be treated equally. Sorry if I do not have all my facts correct.
 

Tetchytyke

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Churches were closed just before Holy Week and Easter which for many Christians is actually a more important season of the year than Christmas.
There was a national lockdown then. Now there isn't, there is a localised lockdown imposed on family gatherings announced on the night Eid began. Eid, like Christmas, is as much a cultural celebration as a religious one.

Of course the pubs are still open, so anyone in Bradford can go and have a pint and a pork pie.
 

Huntergreed

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Would anyone on here follow the restrictions on not seeing family if this was imposed at Christmas?

I know I wouldn't. As a student, I'll be travelling home to see my family at christmas, regardless of what 'guidance' is in place.
 

MontyMinerWA

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Would anyone on here follow the restrictions on not seeing family if this was imposed at Christmas?

I know I wouldn't. As a student, I'll be travelling home to see my family at christmas, regardless of what 'guidance' is in place.
If I had to do it in order to protect my elderly parents then yes I would.
 

AdamWW

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There was a national lockdown then. Now there isn't, there is a localised lockdown imposed on family gatherings announced on the night Eid began. Eid, like Christmas, is as much a cultural celebration as a religious one.
Whereas for most of the UK Easter just means a long weekend.
 

Tetchytyke

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Whereas for most of the UK Easter just means a long weekend.
Precisely.

Even less devout Muslims, or people from Muslim cultures who are agnostic or atheistic, will still want to see their families at Eid. The religious element is secondary to the social and cultural element.

The equivalent will be saying that you can go to Church on Christmas Eve, but you can't see your parents for a meal. Great. Most people in the UK don't go to Church.
 

Huntergreed

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Precisely.

Even less devout Muslims, or people from Muslim cultures who are agnostic or atheistic, will still want to see their families at Eid. The religious element is secondary to the social and cultural element.

The equivalent will be saying that you can go to Church on Christmas Eve, but you can't see your parents for a meal. Great. Most people in the UK don't go to Church.
Indeed. I imagine Mr. Hancock is now viewed very poorly indeed within these communities. I don't think many Brits will stand for a cancelled christmas, and if they do then I really do fear what the government can do under these new 'emergency powers'.
 

Baxenden Bank

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I don't know what the situation will be by Christmas, but whatever it is, it will certainly be more difficult for those that rely on public transport.

If lockdown number (insert number of your choice here) is put in place, people that drive long distances to get to their families will most likely get away with it, there being few roadblocks etc whilst public transport users will be subject to 'messaging', reduced timetables, enforced capacity caps (as per Euston at Christmas anyway but with fewer allowed to board) and so on. It will 'made difficult' for them to travel, even if they are intent on breaking any regulations put in place.

@Huntergreed, I imagine Mr Hancock (four syllables, one accurate) is now viewed very poorly. Full Stop.

Emergency powers are of no use if sufficient numbers of people simply ignore them, those responsible for enforcing them choose not to do so, and there is insufficient capacity in the legal system to process them all. How many magistrates will find guilty a large proportion of the population for travelling to see their elderly parents at Christmas. I feel lots of 'unconditional discharges' coming on or a 'conditional discharge' for being cheeky to the copper on arrest!
 
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Huntergreed

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I don't know what the situation will be by christmas, but it will certainly be more difficult for those that rely on public transport.

If lockdown number (insert number of your choice here) is put in place, people that drive long distances to get to their families will most likely get away with it, there being few roadblocks etc
Indeed! It's a shame, but it does indeed seem that the future may involve a slight level of discrimination between car owners and not car owners. This really isn't good, but with people being turned away from 'full' (relatively empty in terms of full capacity) services in Scotland today, it's likely going to happen more as things get busier. :s
 

C J Snarzell

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Maybe to cheer us all up, the government personnel could do a Christmas pantomime of Aladdin. Boris Johnson could take the lead role, rub his magic lamp and Dominic Cummins would appear as the Genie to grant the PM three Covid wishes. I would love to see Chris Whitty maybe do Widow Twankey.

CJ
 

Huntergreed

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Maybe to cheer us all up, the government personnel could do a Christmas pantomime of Aladdin. Boris Johnson could take the lead role, rub his magic lamp and Dominic Cummins would appear as the Genie to grant the PM three Covid wishes. I would love to see Chris Whitty maybe do Widow Twankey.

CJ
If you want to watch the government acting like buffoons, I suggest you tune in to the next press conference :lol:
 

Richard Scott

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Well I wouldn't count myself as a lockdown "enthusiast", fervent or otherwise, but I don't accept your interpretation of the figures.

If the virus were dying out we would see that infection rates are going down in the UK. Sadly they aren't. So it's not that one.

Not sure why the alternative would be that it was never a serious threat.

Of course the infection rate could be steady but it is becoming less lethal. But I think it would be hard to see from that plot as it includes anyone who has been fighting it in hospital for months and finally succumbs (and I think also someone who had a positive test months ago, wasn't seriously ill, but was in a fatal accident).
You also need to consider viral load. People who are being infected may be carrying less of a viral load and hence the effect is reduced? Only theorising here, anyone got anything to back this up or prove it wrong? If it is the case then the number of new cases will matter less and less and maybe Christmas can happen after all?
 

6862

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Would anyone on here follow the restrictions on not seeing family if this was imposed at Christmas?

I know I wouldn't. As a student, I'll be travelling home to see my family at christmas, regardless of what 'guidance' is in place.
I take the same view - I won't be obeying any rule that says I have to spend Christmas sitting alone in my flat without going to visit my family. Of course the use of public transport being restricted may cause some problems, but I can't see the police being able to prevent the mass movement of people going to visit family over Chrsitmas.

If I had to do it in order to protect my elderly parents then yes I would.
Of course it's your personal choice and depends on the health of your parents, but I think for many (elderly) people, there is a recognition that there are some things (like seeing family) which are worth the small risk of catching or dying from the virus.
 

adc82140

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You also need to consider viral load. People who are being infected may be carrying less of a viral load and hence the effect is reduced? Only theorising here, anyone got anything to back this up or prove it wrong? If it is the case then the number of new cases will matter less and less and maybe Christmas can happen after all?
A group of senior Italian doctors from Bergamo directly involved with the initial outbreak have said that patients are now less sick than they were, due to a falling viral load. Sorry don't have the link to hand.
 

duncanp

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Or there could be a modern COVID-19 compliant version of A Christmas Carol

Christmas, Bah humbug!!... ...if I could work my will,” said Scrooge Boris Johnson, Matt Hancock, Chris Whitty indignantly, every idiot who goes about with ‘Merry Christmas’ on his lips, should be boiled with his own hand sanitiser, and buried with a COVID compliant face mask wrapped around his neck.He should!”
 

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