Bantamzen
Established Member
I'm hoping to be in Japan on a 3 week Japan Rail Pass extravaganza, can't bear the thought of being in Milton Keynes @Bletchleyite
Don't worry, there are plenty of people who don't want to be in Milton Keynes....
I'm hoping to be in Japan on a 3 week Japan Rail Pass extravaganza, can't bear the thought of being in Milton Keynes @Bletchleyite
With the local lockdown announced in and around Greater Manchester seemingly aimed at preventing spread at Eid parties, what might happen about Christmas?
Then you clearly don't understand the "evidence". The rate at which the death rate is falling suggests we'll be down to zero within a few weeks so the idea any restrictions might still be around at Christmas is laughable.
What evidence do you have that the death rate is falling at this rate?
Yes - it is just too big of an ask.I'd tend to agree with that, and even if it was legislated for I cannot see many people locking themselves away from family.
Yes, it illustrates the point I made:Have a look at this graph and see if you can spot a trend.
(Image shows the UK covid-19 death rate falling from over 1,000 at its peak to the current level of less than 100 most days over the past week)
For the last few weeks the UK rolling average has suggested approaching a plateau however even a best case for it suggests several months before it becomes single figures.
Yes, it illustrates the point I made:
For the whole of June and July it's moved slightly down and the best case is that this will carry on. The only way to get it to fall faster is to go back into lockdown again (assuming no treatment or mutation).
Even though the rate may be slowing even the most fervent lockdown enthusiast must accept that less and less people are dying of the virus which suggests either it's dying out naturally or it never was a serious threat to the lives of most non-vulnerable people.
The rolling average is 60ish this week, I made no statement about daily figures as they're completely random. Yes the rate is slowing down, I never questioned that just the statement that 'The rate at which the death rate is falling suggests we'll be down to zero within a few weeks '. On current trends even the weekend daily figures are unlikely to get to that point in a few weeks. It'll be some way until England can claim the string of 0 figures that Scotland has had recently.Well it was single figures last Sunday so that proves your second point wrong!
Even though the rate may be slowing even the most fervent lockdown enthusiast must accept that less and less people are dying of the virus which suggests either it's dying out naturally or it never was a serious threat to the lives of most non-vulnerable people.
Well I wouldn't count myself as a lockdown "enthusiast", fervent or otherwise, but I don't accept your interpretation of the figures.
If the virus were dying out we would see that infection rates are going down in the UK. Sadly they aren't. So it's not that one.
Not sure why the alternative would be that it was never a serious threat.
Of course the infection rate could be steady but it is becoming less lethal. But I think it would be hard to see from that plot as it includes anyone who has been fighting it in hospital for months and finally succumbs (and I think also someone who had a positive test months ago, wasn't seriously ill, but was in a fatal accident).
There are very few people who sit in hospital seriously ill for months. The whole point put across early on is how quickly you progressed from hospital admission to ventilator to morgue slab.
Nothing, because this lockdown is targeted at Muslims as part of the government's dog-whistle tactics of blaming them for Covid.
Churches were closed just before Holy Week and Easter which for many Christians is actually a more important season of the year than Christmas.
If I had to do it in order to protect my elderly parents then yes I would.Would anyone on here follow the restrictions on not seeing family if this was imposed at Christmas?
I know I wouldn't. As a student, I'll be travelling home to see my family at christmas, regardless of what 'guidance' is in place.
There was a national lockdown then. Now there isn't, there is a localised lockdown imposed on family gatherings announced on the night Eid began. Eid, like Christmas, is as much a cultural celebration as a religious one.
Whereas for most of the UK Easter just means a long weekend.
Indeed. I imagine Mr. Hancock is now viewed very poorly indeed within these communities. I don't think many Brits will stand for a cancelled christmas, and if they do then I really do fear what the government can do under these new 'emergency powers'.Precisely.
Even less devout Muslims, or people from Muslim cultures who are agnostic or atheistic, will still want to see their families at Eid. The religious element is secondary to the social and cultural element.
The equivalent will be saying that you can go to Church on Christmas Eve, but you can't see your parents for a meal. Great. Most people in the UK don't go to Church.
Indeed! It's a shame, but it does indeed seem that the future may involve a slight level of discrimination between car owners and not car owners. This really isn't good, but with people being turned away from 'full' (relatively empty in terms of full capacity) services in Scotland today, it's likely going to happen more as things get busier.I don't know what the situation will be by christmas, but it will certainly be more difficult for those that rely on public transport.
If lockdown number (insert number of your choice here) is put in place, people that drive long distances to get to their families will most likely get away with it, there being few roadblocks etc
If you want to watch the government acting like buffoons, I suggest you tune in to the next press conferenceMaybe to cheer us all up, the government personnel could do a Christmas pantomime of Aladdin. Boris Johnson could take the lead role, rub his magic lamp and Dominic Cummins would appear as the Genie to grant the PM three Covid wishes. I would love to see Chris Whitty maybe do Widow Twankey.
CJ
You also need to consider viral load. People who are being infected may be carrying less of a viral load and hence the effect is reduced? Only theorising here, anyone got anything to back this up or prove it wrong? If it is the case then the number of new cases will matter less and less and maybe Christmas can happen after all?Well I wouldn't count myself as a lockdown "enthusiast", fervent or otherwise, but I don't accept your interpretation of the figures.
If the virus were dying out we would see that infection rates are going down in the UK. Sadly they aren't. So it's not that one.
Not sure why the alternative would be that it was never a serious threat.
Of course the infection rate could be steady but it is becoming less lethal. But I think it would be hard to see from that plot as it includes anyone who has been fighting it in hospital for months and finally succumbs (and I think also someone who had a positive test months ago, wasn't seriously ill, but was in a fatal accident).
Would anyone on here follow the restrictions on not seeing family if this was imposed at Christmas?
I know I wouldn't. As a student, I'll be travelling home to see my family at christmas, regardless of what 'guidance' is in place.
If I had to do it in order to protect my elderly parents then yes I would.
A group of senior Italian doctors from Bergamo directly involved with the initial outbreak have said that patients are now less sick than they were, due to a falling viral load. Sorry don't have the link to hand.You also need to consider viral load. People who are being infected may be carrying less of a viral load and hence the effect is reduced? Only theorising here, anyone got anything to back this up or prove it wrong? If it is the case then the number of new cases will matter less and less and maybe Christmas can happen after all?