What next for LU? At full capacity...

Discussion in 'London Underground' started by mrmartin, 10 Aug 2015.

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  1. mrmartin

    mrmartin Member

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    It seems to me that TfL has managed to somewhat 'keep' pace with increased population by two main things:

    1) People travelling more to the shoulders of the peak, eg travelling in earlier or later than before to avoid congestion

    2) Upgrading existing lines to have higher frequencies.

    I think 1) is masking some of the unmet demand. I will always get a train after 9-9:30 to work if I can as the central line is just so horrible it completely ruins my morning beforehand. However, looking at the stats (and loadings) increasingly more people are having the same idea and even at 10am it's unlikely you'll get a seat/have plenty of room to stand now. I am not sure how much more demand can be shifted this way.

    2) on vic, central, jubilee and SSR soon will surely be at capacity. as will northern and pic soon after, with 30+ tph, where it is impossible to run anymore.

    At this point I can't really see where any future 'supply' can come. Obviously Crossrail and Crossrail 2, but those new lines only seem to happen every 15-20 years and I think there must be a limit on interchange stations like TCR at some point.

    It seems to me we are hitting a limit on rapid transit, in a similar way to us realising that building urban motorways didn't really solve the problem. We have a few more years of space to do upgrades on some lines but most are literally at full capacity.
     
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  3. jopsuk

    jopsuk Veteran Member

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    Additional lines are very expensive. More remote working/time shifted working has been talked about for a couple of decades and just doesn't seem to be happening. The cycle superhighways are one capacity improvement- bikes taking up much less surface space than cars (incredibly, there's still people driving to work in London that could easily use public transport or bikes).
     
  4. mrmartin

    mrmartin Member

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    The thing is:

    a) some jobs can't be done remotely
    b) something like 15% of people in London already work at home. it seems very common for people in my industry to work at home 1 or 2 days a week.

    the point i'm trying to make is there actually has been really significant shifts already in remote/flexible working that aren't apparent and despite that, passenger demand is still skyrocketing. and that all the (relatively) 'low hanging' fruit for improving capacity has been done or will be done in the next couple of years. I can't see where London can go from this if population keeps on rising.
     
  5. HSTEd

    HSTEd Established Member

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    It will have to be new lines I would think.
    Not much else to be done.
     
  6. swt_passenger

    swt_passenger Veteran Member

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    Any new tube sized lines are unlikely IMHO, it'll have to be a couple more 'Crossrails'. However they'll need to steer clear of existing interchanges with other lines and provide new and different ones to avoid overwhelming the likes of TCR and Oxford Circus. More intersections and less hub and spoke...
     
  7. baz52

    baz52 Member

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    Hi all, well after thinking, ref to mrmartains point ref public transport, I had a quick look at some info about trolly buses the modern type single decker and also some that can run on own power also, I belive there are some that are like bendy buses so can carry more passengers, I think might be a good idea to look at say on some long main roads that run from outer london to the cbd ereas also much cleaner than normal buses, anyway sorry if slightly of topic and also sorry if not posted correct topic area. But if the tlf ug is pretty full apart from crossrail I cant see another way thats not to exspensive.
     
  8. mrmartin

    mrmartin Member

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    I agree, but is this actually practical? Demand for the tube (and NR services) is going up by 3+%pa. Crossrail, which will deliver a 10% improvement on the number of seats into central London. But it will take about 15 years of planning & construction to build it. In which time, demand for passenger journeys has increased by (assuming 3%pa) some 55%. That's an enormous difference.

    Ok, there's stuff like thameslink and LO improvements. But again, these are sort of 'one off' improvements, I don't think they'll be able to get more than 24tph through the TL core. We've totally ran out of upgrade options.
     
  9. HSTEd

    HSTEd Established Member

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    Well you could have more than one Crossrail line under construction in parallel.
     
    Last edited: 10 Aug 2015
  10. baz52

    baz52 Member

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    Just been reading on the tfl website crossrail, that the new crossrail trains will be 7 car formation, the southend line used to have great eastern class 312 emus and was 4 car and most times used to be class 312 emus coupled togeather , im not sure if the new trains will have greater capacity than the 312s , but maybe thats one way could cope with increased traffic, I think I read some where that will be 12 trains per hour offpeak, and as said already 24 trains max peak hours.
    --- old post above --- --- new post below ---
    Sorry ment to say 2 x 4 cars class 312 ,
     
  11. Haydn1971

    Haydn1971 Established Member

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    Exactly, Crossrail 3 is already appearing in aspirational discussions, I'd expect it to start before Crossrail 2 is finished - with the next big idea starting before Crossrail 3 is finished.

    I've said before that there comes a point also when the terminal stations will need distributing - TfL is already worried about HS2 pumping passengers at Euston, Waterloo is at breaking point, Paddington has had a part reprieve with Crossrail but when these projects are taking 20 years, actions need early starts.
     
  12. gazthomas

    gazthomas Established Member

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    Change people's ways of workings. Does everyone have to go into central London?
     
  13. Haydn1971

    Haydn1971 Established Member

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    Government has been trying that for decades - just about every government department has huge numbers of staff outside London
     
  14. gazthomas

    gazthomas Established Member

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    Would raising prices work (not exactly popular)
     
  15. Chris125

    Chris125 Established Member

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    When Crossrail is fully operational all trains will be 9-cars long, but equivalent in overall length to to a 10-car 312.
     
  16. Bald Rick

    Bald Rick Established Member

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    There's a limit on the number of new lines that can go across Central London, simply because of the depth they would have to be at the interchanges. This makes it much more difficult to dig out the new interchanges, and also means passengers have a long vertical journey.
     
  17. baz52

    baz52 Member

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    Thanks for that chris125 much appreciated
     
  18. rebmcr

    rebmcr Established Member

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  19. matt_world2004

    matt_world2004 Established Member

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    I reckon, Oxford Street may get some kind of tram only service, this will reduce the polution from the vehicles but will also increase road transport capacity on oxford street
     
  20. donpoku

    donpoku Member

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    Some great suggestions guys, keep it coming.
     
  21. JamesRowden

    JamesRowden Established Member

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    A cheap way to meet demand might be to ban all motor vehicles in Central London at peak times except for buses and the emergency services. Make better use of all of those tarmac lines on the surface.
     
  22. jopsuk

    jopsuk Veteran Member

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    Not that crazy a suggestion- there's a lot of European cities moving in that direction
     
  23. SpacePhoenix

    SpacePhoenix Established Member

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    Is there the demand for the lines that run south of the Thames to be extended?
     
  24. glbotu

    glbotu Member

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    But that doesn't increase capacity. Extending lines results in bringing more passengers onto existing lines. Unless you vastly improve capacity on those lines within London, extending them worsens the problem.
     
  25. AM9

    AM9 Established Member

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    The Bakerloo has lower maximum passenger numbers than most of the other lines. Both Northern branches are also lower than the top three (Jubilee, Central and Victoria) so there would be some capacity for expansion.
     
  26. jopsuk

    jopsuk Veteran Member

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    When in full operation the new stock will be 9 car long, but the carriages will be longer so the whole train will be 200m long- equivalent to a 10 car 312, 321, 315 etc.. The core stations I believe have been built to allow future operation of 250m max trains.
    --- old post above --- --- new post below ---
    one of the ideas of the "Crossrail" concept is that, especially if you have a small number of balanced branches, you can get much better capacity than by terminating in the centre of London. Terminating trains, especially packed high frequency suburban services, is bad for capacity.
     
  27. westv

    westv Established Member

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    People have to go where the the work is and if that work is London then that's where they'll go. Higher wages perhaps but that means more tax for the Government.
     
  28. glbotu

    glbotu Member

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    Yeah, I mean, that's why the Bakerloo is mooted for extension to Lewisham/Hayes, but that is specifically due to the nature of the Bakerloo.

    While the Northern is below the Jubilee/Victoria/Central in terms of tph, I think that due to the age/bendyness of the tunnels etc, it's much closer to its theoretical maximum.
     
  29. TheNewNo2

    TheNewNo2 Member

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    I personally want to see Oyster card flights between Heathrow and City Airport. Sure it wouldn't help capacity, but I just want it...
     
  30. Taunton

    Taunton Established Member

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    Crossrail is going to make a substantial impact on the current overcapacity lines, it will relieve significantly both Central and Jubilee, along with a raft of others like the east end of the District. The Bakerloo's busiest point is Paddington transfers from the main line, which will be notably reduced.

    Indeed, I am concerned that Crossrail may well be over capacity from day one, as it will be so much quicker than these established lines. There is scope in the underground section platforms apparently to add another two cars, not done at first because I believe of budget restrictions, but this will need more work on the surface sections.

    Canary Wharf looks likely to be a crunch point, being a "core" generator (and ever more so as years pass and future developments come on stream) but down one of the branches and thus getting only half the service. At 5.30 this is surely going to become an issue. I also feel they have not ordered enough cars, they only have half the number that Thameslink ordered and there doesn't seem scope to increase frequency without ordering more.
     
    Last edited: 12 Aug 2015
  31. jopsuk

    jopsuk Veteran Member

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    Comparing the number of carriages between Thameslink and Crossrail is a bit of a red herring. The Crossrail stock uses longer carriages and the railway itself is far shorter
     
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