What next for LU? At full capacity...

[glbotu]

Apart from what is already being worked on. like Crossrail, Thameslink 2000 and the Northern Line bifurcation to Battersea (grrgh!) nothing of any significance is going to be happening with rail in the Greater London area in the next five years at least, which is why Sir Peter Hendy was warning a few months ago of the potential for civil disorder with a rapidly increasing population desperate to travel to and from work and being frustrated. The only answer a cash-strapped TfL has been able to come up with was an extra 500 buses over that five year period, although even that remains unfunded. In any case, traffic congestion in Outer London and parts of Inner London, combined with more notional 20 mph speed limits and speed humps, is leading to more buses being put on to the road every month just to maintain frequencies: an extra bus on each route would alone take up almost all those extra 500 buses without any palpable difference being seen by the passenger. Lover of buses I may be, but I also recognise they cannot solve all London's coming transport problems, or even a significant part of them.

With Gatwick very likely to be given the go-ahead for a second runway, my thoughts are of a new RER type service from there via East Croydon and a limited number of other stops to Victoria, then via Hyde Park Corner, Marble Arch, Paddington, Cricklewood, Brent Cross to ? Perhaps Thameslink 2100, to be completed by 2200. Gatwick to Heathrow would also be feasible this way.

"In the next five years" is rather an odd statement to make, given that if anything were to start in the next five years, it wouldn't be completed until well after that. Things could certainly get kicked off in the next five years, but these things have to go through consultation. Things such as:

Crossrail 2
Bakerloo extension
HS2
Crossrail extension to WCML Outers
Old Oak Common Station
New Tube for London (and associated line upgrades)
SWML 5th Track

Given that the projects you've mentioned

Crossrail
Thameslink Programme
Battersea Extension

Will all be completed in the next 5 years, alongside

Barking Riverside extension of GOBLIN
GOBLIN electrification
SSL Upgrade
Camden Town Upgrade
Extra platforms at East Croydon

These will all perform various changes which greatly improve capacity into and around London. Don't underestimate the impact of some of these. SSL Upgrade will allow a far greater frequency along the entire Subsurface railway. Lots and lots more S7s moving people around the Circle, District, H&C and Metropolitan lines. GOBLIN electrification will allow 2 car DMUs to be upgraded to 4 car EMUs (with frequency improvement?). The extra platforms at East Croydon will also allow more trains to pass through (and stop at) the station without huge capacity constraints.

 

[plcd1]

Apart from what is already being worked on. like Crossrail, Thameslink 2000 and the Northern Line bifurcation to Battersea (grrgh!) nothing of any significance is going to be happening with rail in the Greater London area in the next five years at least, which is why Sir Peter Hendy was warning a few months ago of the potential for civil disorder with a rapidly increasing population desperate to travel to and from work and being frustrated. The only answer a cash-strapped TfL has been able to come up with was an extra 500 buses over that five year period, although even that remains unfunded. In any case, traffic congestion in Outer London and parts of Inner London, combined with more notional 20 mph speed limits and speed humps, is leading to more buses being put on to the road every month just to maintain frequencies: an extra bus on each route would alone take up almost all those extra 500 buses without any palpable difference being seen by the passenger. Lover of buses I may be, but I also recognise they cannot solve all London's coming transport problems, or even a significant part of them.

With Gatwick very likely to be given the go-ahead for a second runway, my thoughts are of a new RER type service from there via East Croydon and a limited number of other stops to Victoria, then via Hyde Park Corner, Marble Arch, Paddington, Cricklewood, Brent Cross to ? Perhaps Thameslink 2100, to be completed by 2200. Gatwick to Heathrow would also be feasible this way.

I share your cynicism about how the bus budget is being gobbled up by the impact of roadworks, speed limits and cycle lanes. However it is not true to say the "500" extra buses are unfunded - the money is certainly allocated in the latest TfL budget. The risk is that the Government screw TfL in the Autumn Statement for revenue grant - if that gets chopped then we can wave goodbye to a whole load of things when TfL has to rejuggle the budget.

I see someone else has kindly listed the rail projects "in build" or due for completion by 2020 or so. We are now in a mess because Boris banned the planning of anything for about 5 years so there is a big gap in the project pipeline. The SSR resignalling was botched meaning a massive dent in LU's capital budget that has shoved a load of upgrades backwards by up to a decade. That also means a tranche of short term "patch and mend" spend on the Picc, Central and Bakerloo to keep them in some sort of shape. The impact must be in the range of £1-2bn which is a crazy amount of money never mind the delay to customer benefits from postponed schemes.

Nothing brand new is going to materialise on the ground in 5 years. The planning takes at least 5 years for anything remotely major that requires TWA approval and government funding. It will be a minor miracle if CR2 or the Bakerloo Line extensions get to the point of spades in the ground by 2020 and I doubt both will receive approval so someone's going to be bitterly disappointed. Even if the new Mayor "hits the ground running" and kicks planning into action within a month of taking office not much will happen for rail by the time they face re-election. The only things that might attract attention are if TfL lobs a load of cash at the DfT to increment the new franchise scopes for SWT, South Eastern and TSGN. If a deal can be done then it's possible people may see better services, brighter stations and new trains on order by 2020. Some of that can be turned on fairly quickly but the timetable planning process is a constraint. TfL and City Hall are due to publish their thoughts about the rail network fairly soon so we may get some clues as to next steps.

 

[Busaholic]

"In the next five years" is rather an odd statement to make, given that if anything were to start in the next five years, it wouldn't be completed until well after that. Things could certainly get kicked off in the next five years, but these things have to go through consultation. Things such as:

Crossrail 2
Bakerloo extension
HS2
Crossrail extension to WCML Outers
Old Oak Common Station
New Tube for London (and associated line upgrades)
SWML 5th Track

Given that the projects you've mentioned

Crossrail
Thameslink Programme
Battersea Extension

Will all be completed in the next 5 years, alongside

Barking Riverside extension of GOBLIN
GOBLIN electrification
SSL Upgrade
Camden Town Upgrade
Extra platforms at East Croydon

These will all perform various changes which greatly improve capacity into and around London. Don't underestimate the impact of some of these. SSL Upgrade will allow a far greater frequency along the entire Subsurface railway. Lots and lots more S7s moving people around the Circle, District, H&C and Metropolitan lines. GOBLIN electrification will allow 2 car DMUs to be upgraded to 4 car EMUs (with frequency improvement?). The extra platforms at East Croydon will also allow more trains to pass through (and stop at) the station without huge capacity constraints.

I stand by what I said. Crossrail will be a boon but likely to be vastly over-subscribed from the off with the probable exception of Heathrow and east of Romford: Thameslink I doubt will have the resilience to provide the scheduled levels of service other than on high days and holidays, The extra levels of service on the sub-surface lines will be really welcome but are not going to be nearly enough to cater for the projected population increase in outer London and the near Home Counties. GOBLIN upgrade and even a short extension southwards, although a good thing, is only a minor player.I deliberately ignored HS2 because (a)I remain highly sceptical of it happening and, anyway, (b) it has little relevance to the London resident wishing to get round the capital - Euston to Old Oak, even if possible, would probably attract a level of fare akin to St Pancras to Stratford International.

East Croydon, a station I've known for nigh on sixty years, struggles manfully on but as those extra lines through Balham or Anerley are not going to get built it'll just be extra platforms for trains to sit at!

Northern Line extra tph too will be most welcome but, particularly on the Morden section, may only mean that ststions like Clapham Common don't have to get closed because of overcrowding quite so often in the morning peak. It really is a tragedy that the Bakerloo extension seems as far away as it did five oir ten years ago, ditto any Tramlink extensions, other than a terminal loop at East Croydon at incredible expense!

 

[glbotu]

I stand by what I said. Crossrail will be a boon but likely to be vastly over-subscribed from the off with the probable exception of Heathrow and east of Romford: Thameslink I doubt will have the resilience to provide the scheduled levels of service other than on high days and holidays, The extra levels of service on the sub-surface lines will be really welcome but are not going to be nearly enough to cater for the projected population increase in outer London and the near Home Counties. GOBLIN upgrade and even a short extension southwards, although a good thing, is only a minor player.I deliberately ignored HS2 because (a)I remain highly sceptical of it happening and, anyway, (b) it has little relevance to the London resident wishing to get round the capital - Euston to Old Oak, even if possible, would probably attract a level of fare akin to St Pancras to Stratford International.

East Croydon, a station I've known for nigh on sixty years, struggles manfully on but as those extra lines through Balham or Anerley are not going to get built it'll just be extra platforms for trains to sit at!

Northern Line extra tph too will be most welcome but, particularly on the Morden section, may only mean that ststions like Clapham Common don't have to get closed because of overcrowding quite so often in the morning peak. It really is a tragedy that the Bakerloo extension seems as far away as it did five oir ten years ago, ditto any Tramlink extensions, other than a terminal loop at East Croydon at incredible expense!

I'd be wary of dismissing HS2 as having "no impact on getting around London". The point is to remove high speed trains off the current WCML South. That will free up paths for local trains especially in commuter hubs like Milton Keynes, Watford, Hemel Hempstead, Northampton, Tring, Bletchley.

I admit I share your scepticism on the resilience of Thameslink, given its 3 ish Northern routes and 8 or so Southern routes. I can imagine that anything falls down it takes the core with it. It doesn't help that trains have to be timetabled through the core, rather than "frequencied"*** (not that they should, it's just it would be nice if they could).

***If this isn't clear, I mean they won't be able to do what LU do and just shuffle trains around to achieve the desired frequency, rather than having specific services.

 

[Haydn1971]

I'd be wary of dismissing HS2 as having "no impact on getting around London". The point is to remove high speed trains off the current WCML South. That will free up paths for local trains especially in commuter hubs like Milton Keynes, Watford, Hemel Hempstead, Northampton, Tring, Bletchley.

There's a huge worry currently within some quarters of TfL about the shift in passenger usage patterns around Kings Cross, St Pancras and Euston once HS2 goes live - it's a fair walk to Thameslink from Euston, so many could end up wanting to use the Northern Line which hasn't the spare capacity for that many passengers.... Crossrail 2 needs to get built to tie into HS2 starting operations.

 

[Taunton]

Certainly with the arrival of Crossrail I would divert from the JLE, as many others are likely to do, and from the Central, District, DLR, and main line services (I can't see that half the service from Romford will continue to get out at Liverpool Street). It's going to relieve these, but I do believe Crossrail will be full from day 1 (apparently Peter Hendy thinks the same). Canary Wharf, down a branch rather than on the full service, especially so.

 

[plcd1]

Certainly with the arrival of Crossrail I would divert from the JLE, as many others are likely to do, and from the Central, District, DLR, and main line services (I can't see that half the service from Romford will continue to get out at Liverpool Street). It's going to relieve these, but I do believe Crossrail will be full from day 1 (apparently Peter Hendy thinks the same). Canary Wharf, down a branch rather than on the full service, especially so.

I think Crossrail will be busy but won't be at heaving full "crushed to death" levels for a few years. Some areas, e.g. West of Paddington, will probably struggle badly because an improved service will unleash a vast surge of suppressed demand.

I'm not totally convinced that there will be a big drop on the JLE and DLR towards Stratford. There will be some relief once Crossrail runs through but I expect it will be rather short lived, ditto the Central Line. I remember listening to the then Jubilee Line GM saying that the 7th car extra capacity, effectively a 14% increase, lasted 10 weeks and trains were full again. I think people will juggle their journey options but I'd not be shocked if they simply revert to old patterns *unless* Crossrail is really revolutionary for them. If I look at my own travel patterns there's no fast way for me to reach Crossrail from E17 and no interchange at Oxford Circus so it's fairly irrelevant for me in Central London. I can't see why I'd dogleg via Warren St and TCR just to reach Crossrail, even for somewhere like Heathrow. Easier just to stick with the Picc Line from F Park.

I do think that after the first 4-5 years TfL will face some serious issues about how to raise capacity on Crossrail. If DfT ever decides it wants the link to the WCML at Old Oak Common then that affords an opportunity to take a look at how you'd take the Crossrail service forward as more trains would be required for the new services.

 

[Busaholic]

I share your cynicism about how the bus budget is being gobbled up by the impact of roadworks, speed limits and cycle lanes. However it is not true to say the "500" extra buses are unfunded - the money is certainly allocated in the latest TfL budget. The risk is that the Government screw TfL in the Autumn Statement for revenue grant - if that gets chopped then we can wave goodbye to a whole load of things when TfL has to rejuggle the budget.

I accept absolutely that TfL have budgeted for those extra buses: when I say 'unfunded' I merely mean that those budgets for forthcoming years are not yet signed off and, even if they had been, there is nothing to stop cuts having to be made at a later stage. If Labour win the Mayoral election next year the cuts expected from the Treasury are not likely to decrease!

On Crossrail, I'm firmly convinced that within a year maximum of full service being provided, there will be a major rejig of services,viz a decrease in the Heathrow service with some of those trains going towards Reading, if not actually reaching it (Maidenhead, Slough?) with pressure for semi-fasts during the peak west of Old Oak (yes, I know it can't be done cos of pathing, but we'll see) and a diversion of some of the Shenfields to Abbey Wood. Now, tell me I'm wrong, know nothing of rail operation, am a total plonker,etc. but it's just what I can foresee.

 

[Waddon]

I think there should be thought given for diverting all freight and other through services away from London to free up other capacity, that is why I was glad they decided not to go ahead with the HS1-HS2 link in central London, the idea that you would drive a train along the congested rail corridors into London just to pass through and out the other side is crazy!

Maybe at some point in the future a link between the two high speed lines following (and tunneled under) the M25 south of London would be considered, travelling via Heathrow and having links to the South West and Southern mainlines, capable of high speed freight, international services to the North as well as some commuter traffic. This would certainly free up some capacity in London.

If HS2 gets built, of course...

 

[D365]

If HS2 gets built, of course...

It will be.

 

[AM9]

It will be.

But I would hazard a guess that there will never be any through trains from anywhere north of St Pancras, however successful HS2 is.

 

[MCR247]

On Crossrail, I'm firmly convinced that within a year maximum of full service being provided, there will be a major rejig of services,viz a decrease in the Heathrow service with some of those trains going towards Reading, if not actually reaching it (Maidenhead, Slough?) with pressure for semi-fasts during the peak west of Old Oak (yes, I know it can't be done cos of pathing, but we'll see) and a diversion of some of the Shenfields to Abbey Wood. Now, tell me I'm wrong, know nothing of rail operation, am a total plonker,etc. but it's just what I can foresee.

I'm sure that off peak there will be Paddington terminators so surely they would be extended before cutting Heathrows trains?

 

[jopsuk]

the Paddington terminators won't have a long turnaround. Extending them would require additional stock

 

[Comstock]

There's a huge worry currently within some quarters of TfL about the shift in passenger usage patterns around Kings Cross, St Pancras and Euston once HS2 goes live - it's a fair walk to Thameslink from Euston, so many could end up wanting to use the Northern Line which hasn't the spare capacity for that many passengers.

How far is it? I walked from Euston to St Ps yesterday and it barely felt like a step. How much further is Thameslink beyond that?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
What an interesting thread by the way. I was riding the tube most of yesterday and thinking many of the same things, especially in the evening rush.

I don't have any other suggestions that haven't been already explored somewhere else, apart from maybe an elevated railway somewhere (don't know where or how expensive)

Apart from that, the only thing I can suggest is more buses and increasing the differential between bus and tube fares to get more people to use them. As someone who's politics are broadly centre-left I don't like the idea of pricing the poor off the tube, but I don't have anything else to offer.....

 

[TheNewNo2]

How far is it? I walked from Euston to St Ps yesterday and it barely felt like a step. How much further is Thameslink beyond that?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
What an interesting thread by the way. I was riding the tube most of yesterday and thinking many of the same things, especially in the evening rush.

I don't have any other suggestions that haven't been already explored somewhere else, apart from maybe an elevated railway somewhere (don't know where or how expensive)

Apart from that, the only thing I can suggest is more buses and increasing the differential between bus and tube fares to get more people to use them. As someone who's politics are broadly centre-left I don't like the idea of pricing the poor off the tube, but I don't have anything else to offer.....

"Too far to be considered an interchange" is the answer. For moderately fit people who know what they're doing it's not too bad - a few minutes walk - but if you're less mobile or unfamiliar with the area it's a big problem.

Buses have their own problems - they're much much slower than trains, carry less people, and are affected by London's godawful traffic.

 

[MCR247]

The only way I think it would be possible for buses to help out the tube would be with some very drastic and very expensive changes to roads that would probably cause more congestion for other vehicles. I think London and TfL would have to be very desperate

 

[Comstock]

"Too far to be considered an interchange" is the answer. For moderately fit people who know what they're doing it's not too bad - a few minutes walk - but if you're less mobile or unfamiliar with the area it's a big problem.

.

"Unfamiliar with the area" can be solved with a simple line painted on the pavement surely?
Totally agree about people with mobility problems, although the tube isn't exactly the friendliest place for those with mobility issues either, and in it's currently overcrowded state that is hard to change. Maybe a free bus linking the two terminals, painted in a nice distinctive colour (ie not red!)

The only way I think it would be possible for buses to help out the tube would be with some very drastic and very expensive changes to roads that would probably cause more congestion for other vehicles. I think London and TfL would have to be very desperate

Yes, but how long before they become 'very desparate'? Yes road changes might be expensive but surely not so much compared with the cost of a new tube line and it's stations?

 

[SpacePhoenix]

What sort of % of LU stations could where financially viable have their platforms extended? I'm guessing that in some places there won't physically be the room anyway or the local geology might prevent it

 

[Domh245]

To be perfectly honest, I don't think that there is anywhere financially viable that could have their platforms extended underground. The platforms run right to the headwall of the station box, and then go immediately into the running tunnels. To extend them would involve extending the box (or to be more accurate, a larger diameter bore) towards the running tunnel, but this would require a blockade of the adjacent lines, and would be needed to be done in one go, and given the high traffic of LU, you won't be getting that done!

 

[plcd1]

The only way I think it would be possible for buses to help out the tube would be with some very drastic and very expensive changes to roads that would probably cause more congestion for other vehicles. I think London and TfL would have to be very desperate

Buses are the premier public transport mode in London based on average daily journeys - way ahead of the tube and national rail.

Buses have been helping out the tube since 2000 when Ken spent a great deal of money on improving them and giving them priority. Boris has broadly neglected the bus network by not allowing any sustained improvement by cutting the budget and scrapping the Bus Priority Unit. His policy of no traffic hierarchy and smoothing the traffic has worsened performance and the current construction activities for cycle priority is removing key parts of bus priority and removing capacity in critical road junctions. In short the bus network is being shafted after 8 years of useless policies. Only when it became clear Boris was going have TfL tweaked their budget to allow some expansion and to fund bus priority work again.

It remains to be seen whether the budget is sustained beyond May 2016 but there is definitely a good role for buses *provided* there is a proper policy framework. There may come a point, given the delays to several tube upgrades, that some lines need some extra help from the bus network even if it is temporary until upgrades complete and release extra capacity. Of course the delay to those upgrades just mean that any extra tube capacity will be swallowed up within days. Crossrail 2, if it happens, is 20 years away IMO and I doubt the Bakerloo Line extension will happen. Therefore inner SE London will be reliant on good buses for a very long time indeed.

 

[SpacePhoenix]

Is there any scope to further extend the DLR to the south-east or would it either be not financially viable or not physically possible?

 

[jopsuk]

There's been talk. it would require massive rebuilding at Lewisham and then it could be difficult to route it. An elevated railway along mainly residential streets would not be universally welcomed. One suggestion I've seen is to route it along (above!) the mainline then onto the Bromley North branch, but there's numerous roads over the line which would cause issues with that

 

[Envy123]

Could it be possible to have better links from Kings X/Euston to the Docklands? The Northern Line is way too overcrowded.

 

[AM9]

Could it be possible to have better links from Kings X/Euston to the Docklands? The Northern Line is way too overcrowded.

Well Kings Cross/St Pancras will both be on Thamelink in three years which is one stop from Farringdon where Crossrail will run directly to Canary Wharf.

 

[TheNewNo2]

Is there any scope to further extend the DLR to the south-east or would it either be not financially viable or not physically possible?

One has to consider where people from those new stations will go - if they want to go to Bank in the morning peak, then that's problematic.

 

[jopsuk]

Well Kings Cross/St Pancras will both be on Thamelink in three years which is one stop from Farringdon where Crossrail will run directly to Canary Wharf.

And every station south of Cambridge will have direct services to Farringdon for the interchange. Whilst in the future Crossrail may have services via Wembley and Watford to Tring on the WCML.

 

[Taunton]

Could it be possible to have better links from Kings X/Euston to the Docklands? The Northern Line is way too overcrowded.

The current better way from Euston to Docklands is the Victoria to Green Park, then the Jubilee. The Northern is sufficiently slow to eliminate any slight advantage in mileage.

[the DLR] if they want to go to Bank in the morning peak, then that's problematic.

I understand the key issue is the sheer numbers tipping out in the peak on the DLR at Bank, it just about sustains clearing one train before the next arrives, bearing in mind that trains only come from one direction. No more arrivals are really possible down in this very deep (well below everything else)and quite narrow station, with only one escalator upwards. If the Jubilee at Canary Wharf is in trouble, the DLR can need to be suspended as well at Bank due to sheer numbers.

 

[hassaanhc]

The current better way from Euston to Docklands is the Victoria to Green Park, then the Jubilee. The Northern is sufficiently slow to eliminate any slight advantage in mileage.

When I've done Gallions Reach to Euston, I find that Jubilee and Northern via London Bridge takes the same time as Jubilee and Victoria via Green Park. But using DLR and Northern via Bank is 5-10 minutes slower for Gallions Reach, so if anything it is the DLR that is slow, not the Northern or Jubilee.

 

[D365]

When I've done Gallions Reach to Euston, I find that Jubilee and Northern via London Bridge takes the same time as Jubilee and Victoria via Green Park. But using DLR and Northern via Bank is 5-10 minutes slower for Gallions Reach, so if anything it is the DLR that is slow, not the Northern or Jubilee.

I've done similar journeys myself, changing at either London Bridge or Bank, and can vouch for the DLR being the 'slow link' in the chain.

 

[TheNewNo2]

The DLR is without doubt slower than the tube, but it all depends on where you're going. Its stations are often more handy for people than the tube, especially as Canary Wharf is effectively on an island with limited access from all directions.