What Railway Subject Have You Changed Your Mind About In 2020?

[tbtc]

"When the fact change, I change my mind. What do you do, Sir?"

(intended as a thread to be honest about the things you've revised your opinions of, rather than a thread to argue about things)

Covid seems to have entrenched a lot of people in the views they already had.

At the moment, the people who always argue in favour of electrification seem to think that this would be an ideal time to electrify more lines (the reasoning being that, whilst passenger numbers are lower it'd be less disruption to close lines, plus the economy needs a good old Keynsian boost)

The people who always argue in favour of re-opening rural branch lines seem to think that this would be an ideal time to re-open rural branch lines (on the basis that regional demand hasn't gone down by as much as commuter services, leisure demand may even increase as people are stuck in the UK, unable to fly aboard as often)

The people who always argue in favour of longer trains on their line think that it's even more important to introduce longer trains on their line (as, despite reduced passenger numbers, we need to have more social distancing and therefore longer trains mean passengers can be better spread apart)

The people who always argue in favour of some big "Green New Deal" projects think that now is the right time to introduce them, since existing travel patterns have been disrupted, so we can get on with closing down airports and trying to shift passengers onto trains

Me? I'm struggling with a few things, but I've changed my mind in a few areas over the years.

I thought Privatisation was A Bad Thing when it happened in the 1990s but have learned to accept that its not the "ownership" that matters, it's the funding, the guarantees - the Austerity years under David Cameron made it harder to believe in Nationalisation (since that'd mean the railway was at the mercy of the same cuts that other public services faced - at least privatisation meant that franchises guaranteed certain services for the medium term).

I was instinctively against HS2 a decade ago but came round to appreciate the project when I saw how passenger numbers kept going up on the existing congested network but none of the "alternatives" (GCR, magic signalling etc) seemed to solve much.

I was massively in favour of electrification until the CP5 commitments became too expensive/ complicated/ slow/ pared back etc - then it became harder to justify as a solution to many problems. My loci was that, if you would wire up a mile of line for the cost of a brand new DMU then maybe it was better to electrify and use cascaded EMUs from the dozens freed up by Crossrail/ Thameslink (than to scrap 1980s EMUs and keep building polluting DMUs). However the maths don't look as good now, the electrification process is a lot slower and costlier.

My belief in HS2 has certainly been tested with Covid - if commuters can't be relied upon for annual season tickets or predictable five day a week office work then it's difficult to make long term plans about infrastructure - I'm still broadly in favour due to the lack of sensible alternatives but it feels too soon to be taking a decision (yet, at the same time, we've delayed it far too long already and could have had it up and running if politicians had had more courage a few years ago).

Have you changed your mind about things? Or are you confident that what you believed twenty years ago is still valid?

 

[Bletchleyite]

HS2 is an interesting one.

I was originally against it because of the principle that the money would be better spent on giving more of our big cities proper U- and S-Bahnen and trams.

I then became pro once the funding model became clear - i.e. that it was effectively borrowing against future fare income so that money wouldn't be available for other rail projects because without HS2 it wouldn't exist.

Now I'm starting to wonder - if London commuting is dead and we require, say, half the capacity on the south WCML that we did require, the raison d'etre (freeing up south WCML capacity) goes away...so I could be swayed back to against, but it's a bit early to say. I think what I'd do, if it was an option, to concentrate on doing work that would be of benefit even if it was cancelled, e.g. some of the station work. Or possibly even doing the "NPR" bit first, as that is going to be required HS2 or no.

Electrification I still favour on political grounds, i.e. I would do it to pretty much the whole network regardless of cost (and push for more trams and electric buses, both trolley and battery, as well as transition of cars to 100% electric ASAP), and get both nuclear and renewable generation capacity thrown up ASAP. This is both for decarbonisation reasons but also for political reasons - if we could remove or at least heavily reduce our dependence on oil as a country, we could avoid having to stick our oar in when things in the Middle East go bad, which would be to our benefit as a country. So I'd still electrify near enough everything (wires or battery) pretty much regardless of cost.

 

[miami]

I don't see any change to HS2 as 2030 is a long time away. Just like flights recovered after 9/11 and housing recovered after 2008.

However I've changed my mind about privitisation, not just due to covid, but also a few other decisions recently. It seems that it truely is a "privitise the profits socialise the losses" situation. I don't see the point in privitisation if there's no risk borne by the operator, it's barely better than rent seeking.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Not directly COVID related, but around 18 months ago the emerging technologies of battery and hydrogen power were making me more sceptical about the wisdom of stringing up more wires...

However given the lack of progress with these technologies, and having done some basic research about where required materials are sourced from (rare-earth metals such as lithium for example) and the environmental impact thereof, I'm more sure than ever that OHLE is the least-worst option for all but a few niche cases. Firstly it's a mature technology with an established skills-base to make it work. So far the domestic attempts at making these technologies work have seemed very "garden-shed engineering" in typical British fashion. Secondly it removes the need to carry the fuel with the vehicle and expend energy moving it around (see the old joke about electric trains really being steam trains but with the "engine" being remote). Likewise batteries are big and heavy, but unlike fuel tanks they don't become lighter as the energy within them is depleted.

 

[yorksrob]

I was previously in favour of many reopenings. I still am in principle, however I think the more urgent need is to consolidate the existing network for the timebeing.

 

[Bald Rick]

I’ve changed my mind about skimmed milk. Previously I wouldn’t touch the stuff, but through lockdown I weaned myself on to it, and now semi skimmed tastes like liquid lard.

Oh, you mean railways

I can’t say anything has changed my mind through the last 6 months, but most of my opinions have been reinforced - about what railways are good at, the strength of the people who work on the railway, the role of the unions, and the need to get a grip on costs, and quickly.

Edit:

Thinking about it, there is one thing. I was firmly of the belief that politics would stop any lines or stations being closed under any circumstances, save for where they were being replaced.

I do not believe that now.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I was vehemently against bimodes because I believe they were a Grayling thing and it pushed no infrastructure improvement and put all the onus on operators, maintenance and traction engineers.
I now believe them to be a very useful stop gap on the road to cleaner air and useful services in the meantime.

 

[Purple Orange]

This seems to be a very interesting thread. So what have I changed my mind on?

• I started reading this forum after stumbling across it when I was so p***ed off with my experience of engaging with some very unhelpful staff at Euston and when I eventually got to Manchester, there were multiple cancellations and then enduring a packed pacer train from P13. My impression of the rail industry was of a cumbersome, unwillinging, unbending, a poor attitude towards passengers, frontline staff that are simply not up for the job of engaging with the public and care very little. My attitude in 2020 has changed on that score. All of the above still applied to a section of the public facing industry, but at the same time there are scores of people who appear to be commercially dynamic and hold a positive attitude towards passengers. It’s a half-way change.
• I was also of the belief that Manchester Airport should be connected to as many towns and cities as possible. Simply put, it is not feasible with the current infrastructure in Central Manchester and I would rather that of the 9 trains that head to the airport, I would have all services originate at Piccadilly with the exception of 1 tph from Leeds, Liverpool & Preston directions, as opposed to all 9 trains being long distance with a majority being fasts.
  • I think this should change again post HS2, with all services on the Styal Line becoming all stop services.

 

[WestRiding]

I have changed my mind on the future of the railway. What was recently a 'boom' industry has suddenly become a sparsely used relic that the government will use to save money when Covid has gone. IE, line closures and service cuts.

 

[HSTEd]

I think i've completely reversed my original position, on joining this forum (however many years ago that was, god I'm old) from being anti new lines and pro make-do-and-mend in the finest Southern Railway tradition to being all about new construction and scrapping as much of the existing system as possible to bear down on operating and staffing costs.

Which is kind of a depressing but interesting change.

 

[bramling]

"When the fact change, I change my mind. What do you do, Sir?"

(intended as a thread to be honest about the things you've revised your opinions of, rather than a thread to argue about things)

Covid seems to have entrenched a lot of people in the views they already had.

At the moment, the people who always argue in favour of electrification seem to think that this would be an ideal time to electrify more lines (the reasoning being that, whilst passenger numbers are lower it'd be less disruption to close lines, plus the economy needs a good old Keynsian boost)

The people who always argue in favour of re-opening rural branch lines seem to think that this would be an ideal time to re-open rural branch lines (on the basis that regional demand hasn't gone down by as much as commuter services, leisure demand may even increase as people are stuck in the UK, unable to fly aboard as often)

The people who always argue in favour of longer trains on their line think that it's even more important to introduce longer trains on their line (as, despite reduced passenger numbers, we need to have more social distancing and therefore longer trains mean passengers can be better spread apart)

The people who always argue in favour of some big "Green New Deal" projects think that now is the right time to introduce them, since existing travel patterns have been disrupted, so we can get on with closing down airports and trying to shift passengers onto trains

Me? I'm struggling with a few things, but I've changed my mind in a few areas over the years.

I thought Privatisation was A Bad Thing when it happened in the 1990s but have learned to accept that its not the "ownership" that matters, it's the funding, the guarantees - the Austerity years under David Cameron made it harder to believe in Nationalisation (since that'd mean the railway was at the mercy of the same cuts that other public services faced - at least privatisation meant that franchises guaranteed certain services for the medium term).

I was instinctively against HS2 a decade ago but came round to appreciate the project when I saw how passenger numbers kept going up on the existing congested network but none of the "alternatives" (GCR, magic signalling etc) seemed to solve much.

I was massively in favour of electrification until the CP5 commitments became too expensive/ complicated/ slow/ pared back etc - then it became harder to justify as a solution to many problems. My loci was that, if you would wire up a mile of line for the cost of a brand new DMU then maybe it was better to electrify and use cascaded EMUs from the dozens freed up by Crossrail/ Thameslink (than to scrap 1980s EMUs and keep building polluting DMUs). However the maths don't look as good now, the electrification process is a lot slower and costlier.

My belief in HS2 has certainly been tested with Covid - if commuters can't be relied upon for annual season tickets or predictable five day a week office work then it's difficult to make long term plans about infrastructure - I'm still broadly in favour due to the lack of sensible alternatives but it feels too soon to be taking a decision (yet, at the same time, we've delayed it far too long already and could have had it up and running if politicians had had more courage a few years ago).

Have you changed your mind about things? Or are you confident that what you believed twenty years ago is still valid?

I have to say GTR as an operator have come on massively in the space of a couple of years, to the point where I wouldn’t actually be too bothered if they carried on with the TSGN franchise as it is for the foreseeable future.

Whilst the cross-London services continue to be unreliable, this is more to do with infrastructure and external factors than those within GTR’s control.

 

[yorksrob]

Before 2020, TPE was a bane to be avoided. Now it's a pleasure to travel on !

 

[tbtc]

This seems to be a very interesting thread. So what have I changed my mind on?

• I started reading this forum after stumbling across it when I was so p***ed off with my experience of engaging with some very unhelpful staff at Euston and when I eventually got to Manchester, there were multiple cancellations and then enduring a packed pacer train from P13. My impression of the rail industry was of a cumbersome, unwillinging, unbending, a poor attitude towards passengers, frontline staff that are simply not up for the job of engaging with the public and care very little. My attitude in 2020 has changed on that score. All of the above still applied to a section of the public facing industry, but at the same time there are scores of people who appear to be commercially dynamic and hold a positive attitude towards passengers. It’s a half-way change

That's a good point - my membership of this Forum has shed a lot of light into the way that railway staff deal with actual issues and the complexities of doing the job (that a member of the public/ passenger wouldn't necessarily be aware of) - that includes those working behind the scenes (e.g. finding out how tight some of the margins are when planning whether there's a spare path to run a service over a junction, learning about the random freight path that might scupper a long distance passenger service, seeing how inter-connected everything is)

I think i've completely reversed my original position, on joining this forum (however many years ago that was, god I'm old) from being anti new lines and pro make-do-and-mend in the finest Southern Railway tradition to being all about new construction and scrapping as much of the existing system as possible to bear down on operating and staffing costs.

Which is kind of a depressing but interesting change.

Mention of the "make do and mend" reminds me that I should have mentioned in my OP that I was very pro the VivaRail 230s as a concept of allowing Pacers to be replaced for five/ten years before we got round to electrifying all of the lines that had at least a couple of services per hour.

In reality, the 230 programme has been beset with problems and the likelihood of electrification for secondary routes has become dumped further and further into the long grass, so something else needs to be done instead IMHO (e.g. bi-modes).

But I would have been fine with 230s running services local to me for a few years, allowing us to scrap the worst of the 75mph DMUs and giving some breathing space whilst the teams that had finished wiring up the Midland Main Line and TransPennine routes turned their attention to other lines in Yorkshire. Ah, how naive I once was... (or, rather, things didn't work out as planned - sometimes you back the right horse, on this occasion I backed the wrong one, but I try to be honest about such things)

 

[Bletchleyite]

But I would have been fine with 230s running services local to me for a few years, allowing us to scrap the worst of the 75mph DMUs and giving some breathing space whilst the teams that had finished wiring up the Midland Main Line and TransPennine routes turned their attention to other lines in Yorkshire. Ah, how naive I once was... (or, rather, things didn't work out as planned - sometimes you back the right horse, on this occasion I backed the wrong one, but I try to be honest about such things)

Yeah, I was very much pro-230, I even thought a load for Northern and Wales would have been good, then get the wires up as you say. Until the day I stepped aboard one, when I realised that if you think CAF stands for "cheap as F" Vivarail have given them a very good run for their (lack of) money with that title, and they have destroyed the Marston Vale service and no doubt (up to COVID) the passenger numbers with them. Never have I thought a couple of Pacers would be more welcome. TBH, even a pair of Leyland Nationals on rubber tyres on the A421 would be better, and that is now a fair risk

This happened more in 2019 than 2020, though.

 

[peteb]

I was previously positive about the introduction of bi-mode "units" eg class 800 on GWR etc. However I am increasingly fed up with the noise vibration, rattles, very hard seats etc. In Europe I've sampled similar bi-mode units being introduced there, but equally I've been impressed by the survival if not full resurgence of loco plus carriages push-pull sets. I am now more in favour of the 68+carriages sets instead but would prefer to see electric versions or bi-mode locos introduced. Nothing beats the silence of a well maintained mk3 when loco hauled and 5th from the loco. Only the tinny earphones of a neighbouring passenger to irritate me there!

 

[yorksrob]

I was definitely sceptical about the vivarail concept. But I think the third rail version is spot on for the island line - and if they got some to open up other lines, even better.

To be fair, I'd rather a few 144's were kept in Yorkshire for such things, but we can't have everything !

 

[bramling]

Yeah, I was very much pro-230, I even thought a load for Northern and Wales would have been good, then get the wires up as you say. Until the day I stepped aboard one, when I realised that if you think CAF stands for "cheap as F" Vivarail have given them a very good run for their (lack of) money with that title, and they have destroyed the Marston Vale service and no doubt (up to COVID) the passenger numbers with them. Never have I thought a couple of Pacers would be more welcome. TBH, even a pair of Leyland Nationals on rubber tyres on the A421 would be better, and that is now a fair risk

This happened more in 2019 than 2020, though.

Yes I agree the whole 230 thing is utterly pointless.

All they’ve really achieved is seeing off the 38 stock, which personally I’d rather have received some proper investment in keeping them going! (Okay I’m being semi-serious).

 

[Camden]

It's easy to think of things where you're no longer committed. More difficult is to articulate sensibly views that replace those.

As the original post says, "when the facts change, I change my mind". But there are no facts any more, only hypothesis and speculation.

As Celia might say: "Due to unforeseen circumstances, all definite views are currently suspended."

 

[cle]

I was an electrification zealot. Still am, long term - but as GRALISTAIR says above, I've become more open-minded to bi-modes.

Ultimately I'd prefer important routes to be electrified, but they at least offer a solution for lessening the 'under the wires' runs which are egregious in some cases. They may lessen the case for wires too, ironically - but we'll have to see.

And I always thought the 319s would be a major hit up north, and the 230s/D stock, a complete farce. And now look...

 

[Roast Veg]

I used to think Northern, GTR, FTPE, and ATW were unpleasant to travel with because of a poor passenger experience. Like the changing of the seasons, I now have no qualms with any of their successors.

 

[SuperNova]

In regards to commuting and Covid - Back in May I'd have said that WFH was the future and commuter lines would struggle. However, nearly 6 months on I'm not so sure it is really productive for businesses or good for those who work for said businesses (in terms of mental health and simply getting their job done effectively). As a friend of mine said today, it is easy for people who don't want to do something to hide by WFH and it's harder to share ideas.

 

[Bletchleyite]

In regards to commuting and Covid - Back in May I'd have said that WFH was the future and commuter lines would struggle. However, nearly 6 months on I'm not so sure it is really productive for businesses or good for those who work for said businesses (in terms of mental health and simply getting their job done effectively). As a friend of mine said today, it is easy for people who don't want to do something to hide by WFH and it's harder to share ideas.

I retain my view that a 3-2 or 2-3 split is what we will end up with, and that was my view before COVID as well.

 

[Roast Veg]

I think it depends on your industry. I changed jobs during lockdown and although I was originally cited to work from home 3 days a week, it's looking extremely likely that I will continue to work from home 5 days a week for the duration of my stint with my new company.

 

[peteb]

Yes I agree the whole 230 thing is utterly pointless.

All they’ve really achieved is seeing off the 38 stock, which personally I’d rather have received some proper investment in keeping them going! (Okay I’m being semi-serious).

I first used the 230 stock on Tuesday. IMO better than a pacer, quite good acceleration and not too uncomfortable at speed. But there again I was on a 150 diet for many years and these are as "good". I didn't have any opinion before this week and glad to have tried them but cannot help thinking a couple of cascaded 172s could probably have managed the Marston Vale timetable.

 

[30907]

I first used the 230 stock on Tuesday. IMO better than a pacer, quite good acceleration and not too uncomfortable at speed. But there again I was on a 150 diet for many years and these are as "good". I didn't have any opinion before this week and glad to have tried them but cannot help thinking a couple of cascaded 172s could probably have managed the Marston Vale timetable.

Undoubtedly they could, but they don't fit the platforms - however that's OT.

 

[The Ham]

I retain my view that a 3-2 or 2-3 split is what we will end up with, and that was my view before COVID as well.

Indeed, probably all Covid-19 has done on that regard is accelerated it's introduction.

The one thing that has changed in my mind is that how good I'd be at working from home. Whilst I can do it full time, I'm very much of the view that it's not something that I would like to do.

Given that I'm fairly happy with my own company lockdown also suprised me with how much I actually need to interact with people.

It's why I now have the view that rail's not all that much of risk of significant cuts. Especially when I realised that a 20% fall would only roll back passenger numbers to 2012.

Even HS2 could see a 15% fall between 2019 and opening and still have the expected at opening of Phase 1 passenger numbers.

I always saw bimodals as a stepping stone (much rather having electrification) and so could accept them. However in now not so sure that the 230's and 769's were the best thing to do given how long they've taken to get into service or how little they are likely to be used across the network.

 

[theageofthetra]

That you'd never see redundancies in the driving grade at passenger TOC's. Can't ever see commuter traffic recovering to pre Covid levels and there are plenty of drivers with poor sickness, attendance, discipline issues etc who management have been trying to get rid of for years without success.

 

[dctraindriver]

That you'd never see redundancies in the driving grade at passenger TOC's. Can't ever see commuter traffic recovering to pre Covid levels and there are plenty of drivers with poor sickness, attendance, discipline issues etc who management have been trying to get rid of for years without success.

It would go on seniority, last in first out and a few of the drivers closer to retirement would take voluntary redundancy. If they make people redundant on the grounds you list, it would be illegal. The time it takes to train drivers even more so under the COVID restrictions probably means most drivers jobs are safe. Where I am many drivers are due retirement in the next couple of years.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It would go on seniority, last in first out and a few of the drivers closer to retirement would take voluntary redundancy. If they make people redundant on the grounds you list, it would be illegal.

Not true. You can do redundancy by performance. Possibly not by sickness (I'm not sure) but certainly you can do it by e.g. the number of formal disciplinaries or similar.

The only thing you have to ensure is that the criteria are objective and measurable so you can prove no bias.

 

[43096]

Possibly not by sickness (I'm not sure)

I believe you can, unless the rules have changed in the last 3 years.

The only thing you have to ensure is that the criteria are objective and measurable so you can prove no bias.

Indeed. Sickness is actually a fairly easy one to measure in an objective way.