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What would happen in the event of a future hung parliament?

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northwichcat

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Presuming Labour and the Conservatives don't move back to more central ground, who would now work with who in the event of a hung parliament at the next election?

As the Tories have moved more to the right since Cameron stood down and are working to leave the EU I can see any UKIP MPs being willing to work with the Conservatives in the event of a hung parliament. It was suggested the DUP would work with the Conservatives in the event of a hung parliament at the last election but I don't know enough about their policies to say whether they'd be more or less likely to work with them now.

As Labour has moved to the left and has now said they are anti-fracking I can see any Green MPs being willing to work with the Labour in the event of a hung parliament.

However, what about the Lib Dems? I can't see the Lib Dems working with a party who is working to leave the EU. Perhaps they would work with Labour if Labour agreed to cut back their plan to renationalise everything?

Then there's the SNP. Labour currently don't want to work with them in Westminster out of principle as if they agree to work with them then it'll be harder to win back Scottish seats. Obviously the SNP don't want to work with the Tories.

Not forgetting there's also a small number of seats belonging to other Northern Irish and Welsh parties which could make the difference between getting 50% of the seats and not.
 
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ainsworth74

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I would suggest a linked but still interesting conundrum would be what if the Tories maintain their majority in 2020 and Labour are annihilated (which could certainly happen) and lose maybe around 100 seats to various parties (a small number to Tories and others probably to Lib Dem and UKIP). Who in that scenario becomes the Official Opposition? You'll potentially have three or four parties all with maybe 50ish seats (SNP, Lib Dem, Labour, UKIP) but no clear front runner to form the Official Opposition.
 

Tim R-T-C

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A lot depends if we have officially started processes to leave the EU, are in the negotiations, or completely done with the EU at the time of the election.

One suspects an election during the negotiations phase would be a bad idea. One might be thrown just after the official leaving act has been passed, to allow the public a chance to vote on who carries out the vital negotiations but without the ability to undo what is done.

In this case I suspect the Lib Dem and Labour could work together to maintain as strong links as possible with the EU. If Labour maintain their current left-wing stance however, the Lib Dems could come back in force if they offer an EU-friendly approach without the pro-union/re-nationalisation standpoints that will surely alienate a lot of voters.

If we are already out of the EU or all-but finished, particularly after an anti-EU negotiating phase, then I think UKIP may simply cease to exist, they will have very little campaigning ground. They will only remain relevant if the negotiations are pro-EU and we end up, as many people assume, in a Norway style 'out, but essentially in' position.

SNP are complex, anyone who works with them will probably have to agree to another referendum (and referenda every 6 months until they eventually win) which will put off Labour for sure.

The Greens are pretty irrelevant as a party, I can't see them ever getting enough support to be worthwhile unless there is a sea change in public opinion over environment change.
 

northwichcat

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I would suggest a linked but still interesting conundrum would be what if the Tories maintain their majority in 2020 and Labour are annihilated (which could certainly happen) and lose maybe around 100 seats to various parties (a small number to Tories and others probably to Lib Dem and UKIP). Who in that scenario becomes the Official Opposition? You'll potentially have three or four parties all with maybe 50ish seats (SNP, Lib Dem, Labour, UKIP) but no clear front runner to form the Official Opposition.

Would Corbyn (as incumbent leader of opposition) have any right to attempt to form the official opposition first in the same way as the incumbent PM has the right to attempt to form a coalition/pact first in the event of a hung parliament?

If that isn't the case and they have slightly different number of seats I imagine the one with the highest number of seats would have to try and form the official opposition first.

If they are exactly the same number of seats and the first scenario I suggested doesn't apply I would hope the party with the most votes gets priority.
 

JamesT

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http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1975/27 has the following text regarding the Opposition:
2 Opposition Leaders and Whips.

(1)In this Act “Leader of the Opposition” means, in relation to either House of Parliament, that Member of that House who is for the time being the Leader in that House of the party in opposition to Her Majesty’s Government having the greatest numerical strength in the House of Commons; and “Chief Opposition Whip” means, in relation to either House of Parliament, the person for the time being nominated as such by the Leader of the Opposition in that House; and “Assistant Opposition Whip”, in relation to the House of Commons, means a person for the time being nominated as such, and to be paid as such, by the Leader of the Opposition in the House of Commons.

(2)If any doubt arises as to which is or was at any material time the party in opposition to Her Majesty’s Government having the greatest numerical strength in the House of Commons, or as to who is or was at any material time the leader in that House of such a party, the question shall be decided for the purposes of this Act by the Speaker of the House of Commons, and his decision, certified in writing under his hand, shall be final and conclusive.

There has been some suggestion that given the scale of rebellion in the Labour Party, as the SNP have more members prepared to sit on the front bench as shadow ministers, they actually have a greater 'strength'. But I don't really expect this argument to fly.
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I would suggest a linked but still interesting conundrum would be what if the Tories maintain their majority in 2020 and Labour are annihilated (which could certainly happen) and lose maybe around 100 seats to various parties (a small number to Tories and others probably to Lib Dem and UKIP). Who in that scenario becomes the Official Opposition? You'll potentially have three or four parties all with maybe 50ish seats (SNP, Lib Dem, Labour, UKIP) but no clear front runner to form the Official Opposition.

I think to some extent you'd need to have an opposition coalition, for no other reason than to provide sufficient shadow ministers to oppose the government of the day. There are over a hundred ministers currently. (Though there has been talk of reducing this number, especially in conjunction with the reduction in MPs due to the boundary review).
 

northwichcat

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I think to some extent you'd need to have an opposition coalition, for no other reason than to provide sufficient shadow ministers to oppose the government of the day. There are over a hundred ministers currently. (Though there has been talk of reducing this number, especially in conjunction with the reduction in MPs due to the boundary review).

You don't have to have a shadow minister for every junior minister and you can create a shadow minister role where there isn't an equivalent minister. For example, since 2010 Labour have never had a Shadow Northern Powerhouse Minister. While Corbyn created a Shadow Mental Health Secretary, despite there being no Mental Health Secretary.
 

Bevan Price

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For the foreseeable future, I think that, regardless of the leadership, there will be enough left wing support to ensure that Labour gets a minimum of 100 MPs. It could take a long time before the Lib-Dems are trusted enough for them to win more than 10 - 20 seats, and I don't expect UKIP to become a significant force. The main beneficiary of a Labour collapse would be the Tories - not out of love for them, but by default due to abstentions by former "moderate leftish" voters.

The 2020 election could well see the Tories with over 400 MPs, and I fear that we will be lumbered with Tory governments for at least the next 20 years - unless they do something incredibly stupid like wreck the NHS.
 

northwichcat

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It could take a long time before the Lib-Dems are trusted enough for them to win more than 10 - 20 seats

I think a lot depends on how good their PR is before the next election. A lot of people who voted for them in 2010 expected them to form a coalition with the Labour party. However, the numbers didn't work for a majority coalition and Gordon Brown was unwilling to implement any policies from the Lib Dem manifesto unless they were identical to policies in the Labour manifesto. I would have liked a Labour-Lib Dem coalition that worked but I was pleased it wasn't a Conservative majority government and some key Lib Dem policies got implemented despite the Conservatives not wanting them e.g. the £10,000 personal allowance.

I fear that we will be lumbered with Tory governments for at least the next 20 years - unless they do something incredibly stupid like wreck the NHS.

ITV News have recently done a series of reports about how the NHS has already been ruined by spending cuts and how certain things are being rationed depending where you live. There was also a local news report recently about a woman who has Lyme Disease not getting proper treatment due to the NHS only doing a basic test which doesn't always detect the disease and in her case it came back negative.
 
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