When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson

tbtc

Veteran Member
Joined
16 Dec 2008
Messages
17,322
Location
Reston City Centre
We've had threads "burying" Labour and the LibDems, but when will the Conservative demise be? Which of the icebergs over the horizon will be the one to sink PM Johnson?

They've just lost two by-elections in a row where they were favourites to win - the huge attention paid to Hartlepool meant we ignored the fact that all these measures to win "Red Wall" votes are making them less popular amongst the southern voters they used to rely on

The popularity boost of the "vaccination bounce" seems to be waning (especially as the failure to prevent the Delta variant from India is having repercussions)

Johnson seems to be lacking enthusiasm - his PMQs are just a chance to phone in some pre-heated lines rather than anything big or clever - I can't see him sticking around long term - he's a campaigner rather than a governor - I'm sure he'd rather be earning bigger money from ghostwriting his Shakespeare book etc

My guess is that we'll see some fallings out about the increasing number of Covid cases whilst people are itching to fully re-open the economy - another lockdown could be a step too far for some supporters who have had their patience severely tried over the past eighteen months but kept faith thus far - another set of restrictions could make him very unpopular - which would make Party Conference Season a lot harder

Plus, the shortages in shops are becoming more noticeable as supply chains become tested - how long until some of the pro-Brexit people start to admit that leaving the Single Market/ Customs Union wasn't necessary?

Then again, an England victory in the Euros could give him a huge boost in the polls - maybe call Sturgeon's bluff regarding a referendum, play hard ball...
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

AlterEgo

Veteran Member
Joined
30 Dec 2008
Messages
15,532
Location
No longer here
Britain is an inherently conservative country, so it’ll be a massive scandal of monster proportions that brings them down. Unlike Labour, who are susceptible to a sea change of ideology away from their core ideals, the risk to conservatives is one of incompetence. They seem to have survived the pandemic, so my guess is it’ll be another economic emergency which does for them.
 

Ianno87

Veteran Member
Joined
3 May 2015
Messages
15,216
Controversial take: Never.

There's enough people who'll blindly vote for them regardless of how inept or corrupt they are that Boris will just solder on and and on.
 

brad465

Established Member
Joined
11 Aug 2010
Messages
4,532
Location
Maidstone
Britain is an inherently conservative country, so it’ll be a massive scandal of monster proportions that brings them down. Unlike Labour, who are susceptible to a sea change of ideology away from their core ideals, the risk to conservatives is one of incompetence. They seem to have survived the pandemic, so my guess is it’ll be another economic emergency which does for them.
I don't think we'll have to wait long for an economic emergency if that's what does it for them: we never really recovered from 2008, all we did was put the economy on life support with all this money printing and keeping interest rates at a record low for over a decade, allowing debt, public and private, along with asset and market bubbles, to balloon. Covid-19 has seen those things turbo-charged even more, and when the bubbles do burst, we're in for an almighty fallout. Then there's the rampant return of inflation right now, which will likely be used to try and manage the debt mountain, at the expense of ordinary folk. Central banks will do whatever they can to avoid putting up rates, as these will make the aforementioned problems happen/worse.

There's plenty of stuff that can go wrong in that which could do it for the Government, especially if an FDR-style alternative vision is proposed by the opposition.

For Johnson specifically, he'll be more likely to go when he wants to get onto the post-PM gravy train he so craves, and/or if he sees impending disaster, such as with Brexit troubles, he could do a David Cameron and run away to avoid dealing with the worst of it.
 

Iskra

Established Member
Joined
11 Jun 2014
Messages
5,345
Location
North Sheffield
Whilst most people are (understandably) frustrated with the lockdowns and aren't probably that invested in Boris as a leader, a lot of people seem to think that the pandemic has been handled as well as it could have been and are pretty happy with the tories. Most people that I speak to seem to think this, and point to how differently Corbyn would have handled it.

I don't see the Tories going anywhere anytime soon and it will take Labour to become credible again before anything can change, which I think is going to take a long time. They aren't trusted economically.

I'm not sure this forum is very representative of the wider population politically.
 

Ianno87

Veteran Member
Joined
3 May 2015
Messages
15,216
Whilst most people are (understandably) frustrated with the lockdowns and aren't probably that invested in Boris as a leader, a lot of people seem to think that the pandemic has been handled as well as it could have been and are pretty happy with the tories. Most people that I speak to seem to think this, and point to how differently Corbyn would have handled it.

Boris's bacon is going to be saved by the success of the vaccination programme (regardless of how much contribution he has made to it) - "It's not how you start, it's how you finish".
 

Iskra

Established Member
Joined
11 Jun 2014
Messages
5,345
Location
North Sheffield
Boris's bacon is going to be saved by the success of the vaccination programme (regardless of how much contribution he has made to it) - "It's not how you start, it's how you finish".
That and the furlough scheme have both been a major success.
 

Iskra

Established Member
Joined
11 Jun 2014
Messages
5,345
Location
North Sheffield
Outweighed heavily by their incompetent handling of other parts of it; eat out to help out, Christmas etc etc etc. Lest we forget it cost lives.
How was Eat Out to Help Out not a success? Customers loved it and so did businesses? Who didn't like it? Christmas seemed fair enough to me.
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
32,480
Location
Yorks
Outweighed heavily by their incompetent handling of other parts of it; eat out to help out, Christmas etc etc etc. Lest we forget it cost lives.

I'm tired of this misrepresentation of "eat out to help out" that seems to have been cultivated by the pro-lockdown brigade.

At the time with infection rates low, people abiding by the rule of six etc was worth doing.

Just because some people took it as carte blanche to have everyone round doesn't make the scheme flawed.
 

py_megapixel

Established Member
Joined
5 Nov 2018
Messages
5,554
Location
Northern England
Imagine if Labour had done EOTHO. I'm sure there would have been prominent right-wing figures lining up to complain about how it was irresponsible use of taxpayer money.

I don't necessarily believe it was irresponsible use of taxpayer money, given the circumstances - but just some food for thought.
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
32,480
Location
Yorks
Imagine if Labour had done EOTHO. I'm sure there would have been prominent right-wing figures lining up to complain about how it was irresponsible use of taxpayer money.

I don't necessarily believe it was irresponsible use of taxpayer money, given the circumstances - but just some food for thought.

Whoever did it, I'm sure the pro-restriction lot would have been grinding their axes.
 

TheBigD

Established Member
Joined
19 Nov 2008
Messages
1,427
There's a number of things that could trip up Boris, but until Labour become a credible alternative the Conservatives will still win general elections.
For those of you so minded feel free to look at the Conservative home website and you'll soon see which issues the tory membership are unimpressed with Boris over. Planning, illegal immigration, wokeness, HS2 all feature regularly in the comments on articles.
Once Boris gets bored, there's Raab, Sunak, Gove (god forbid) and others waiting in the wings.
 

tbtc

Veteran Member
Joined
16 Dec 2008
Messages
17,322
Location
Reston City Centre
Is the question what will do for Johnson or what will do for the current government?

The way I see it, there are three options re Johnson:

1. Johnson leaves before he gets pushed << we know that he's not a details person - he's a campaigner rather than a governor - he'd rather be writing barnstorming articles for the Telegraph or corporate speeches and being paid significantly more for it - I think his ideal job would be a kind of Prince Andrew role, where he can gallivant around with people continually telling him he's marvellous and not have to deal with awkward scrutiny or deal with details
2. Johnson is deposed but the Tories survive and get a "new leader boost" in the polls (it's long enough until the next election, so they have time to convene around a new leader) << e.g. personal scandal - cheating on his wife/finances
3. Johnson is brought down by something that seriously threatens the Tories electability << e.g. economic crash

At the moment, I think that the first option is most likely - I think he'll walk out on his own terms. However I can't see anything that'll bring down the Government - they seem pretty bombproof and adaptable. They've done well to try to be "all things to all people" and managed to avoid creating enough space for the kind of "this Brexit isn't Brexitty enough for me" people or the "anti-lockdown" people - look at how the Brexit Party/ Reform/ Lawrence Fox types have struggled to find a foothold (compared to how various Tory leaders in the past were too mainstream which allowed room for UKIP to grow into something beyond a noisy fringe

Boris's bacon is going to be saved by the success of the vaccination programme (regardless of how much contribution he has made to it) - "It's not how you start, it's how you finish".

I think that'll keep him going for another few months but if the increase in cases continues (and potentially threatens promised re-openings) then people are going to realise that the vaccines were only a step along the journey and not the "magic bullet" that they've been sold as - they've significantly cut the death rate (and I'm glad that I've had both of mine) but if numbers of people catching it continue to rise then the vaccine won't be the end of things

I'm tired of this misrepresentation of "eat out to help out" that seems to have been cultivated by the pro-lockdown brigade

Whoever did it, I'm sure the pro-restriction lot would have been grinding their axes.

I really don't think that there is a "pro-lockdown" "pro-restriction" bogeyman - I know that the Brexitters liked to rail against some very pro-EU people who they used to pretend that they represented all Remainers - there certainly were a few such people (with their regular skiing holidays and preference for continental culture over British culture - maybe even an au pair)...

...but a "pro-lockdown" brigade ? Not sure - I don't know anyone who enjoys wearing masks or enjoys things being closed - I just know some people who think that these are necessary compromises that need to be put up with until we beat Covid, and the Toby Young/ Lawrence Fox types who think that this is all unnecessary (and aren't willing to make the same sacrifices)

Maybe there's a couple of trolls on social media who pretend that they are loving it to get a reaction from people who enjoy getting angry online, but I don't think that they are remotely representative and I certainly don't think that there are enough of them to constitute a "brigade" - however much you might want to have a bogeyman

The trouble is that, for one side to have an argument, you want to have an "equal and opposite" person to argue against - which is why the Tories loved Corbyn - and the SNP love Johnson - you need someone "bad" to get your supporters angry... I just can't see a "both sides" to this debate though

There's a number of things that could trip up Boris, but until Labour become a credible alternative the Conservatives will still win general elections.
For those of you so minded feel free to look at the Conservative home website and you'll soon see which issues the tory membership are unimpressed with Boris over. Planning, illegal immigration, wokeness, HS2 all feature regularly in the comments on articles.
Once Boris gets bored, there's Raab, Sunak, Gove (god forbid) and others waiting in the wings.

The next leadership election could be rather messy... May took over at pretty short notice in pretty unusual circumstances (when "getting someone to stabilise the party" was most important) - Johnson was effectively a procession into power - there's not been a proper *debate* in the Tory party for some time (over fifteen years since Cameron started leading the party) - but the next campaign would mean some much tougher questions being asked
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
32,480
Location
Yorks
The way I see it, there are three options re Johnson:

1. Johnson leaves before he gets pushed << we know that he's not a details person - he's a campaigner rather than a governor - he'd rather be writing barnstorming articles for the Telegraph or corporate speeches and being paid significantly more for it - I think his ideal job would be a kind of Prince Andrew role, where he can gallivant around with people continually telling him he's marvellous and not have to deal with awkward scrutiny or deal with details
2. Johnson is deposed but the Tories survive and get a "new leader boost" in the polls (it's long enough until the next election, so they have time to convene around a new leader) << e.g. personal scandal - cheating on his wife/finances
3. Johnson is brought down by something that seriously threatens the Tories electability << e.g. economic crash

At the moment, I think that the first option is most likely - I think he'll walk out on his own terms. However I can't see anything that'll bring down the Government - they seem pretty bombproof and adaptable. They've done well to try to be "all things to all people" and managed to avoid creating enough space for the kind of "this Brexit isn't Brexitty enough for me" people or the "anti-lockdown" people - look at how the Brexit Party/ Reform/ Lawrence Fox types have struggled to find a foothold (compared to how various Tory leaders in the past were too mainstream which allowed room for UKIP to grow into something beyond a noisy fringe



I think that'll keep him going for another few months but if the increase in cases continues (and potentially threatens promised re-openings) then people are going to realise that the vaccines were only a step along the journey and not the "magic bullet" that they've been sold as - they've significantly cut the death rate (and I'm glad that I've had both of mine) but if numbers of people catching it continue to rise then the vaccine won't be the end of things





I really don't think that there is a "pro-lockdown" "pro-restriction" bogeyman - I know that the Brexitters liked to rail against some very pro-EU people who they used to pretend that they represented all Remainers - there certainly were a few such people (with their regular skiing holidays and preference for continental culture over British culture - maybe even an au pair)...

...but a "pro-lockdown" brigade ? Not sure - I don't know anyone who enjoys wearing masks or enjoys things being closed - I just know some people who think that these are necessary compromises that need to be put up with until we beat Covid, and the Toby Young/ Lawrence Fox types who think that this is all unnecessary (and aren't willing to make the same sacrifices)

Maybe there's a couple of trolls on social media who pretend that they are loving it to get a reaction from people who enjoy getting angry online, but I don't think that they are remotely representative and I certainly don't think that there are enough of them to constitute a "brigade" - however much you might want to have a bogeyman

The trouble is that, for one side to have an argument, you want to have an "equal and opposite" person to argue against - which is why the Tories loved Corbyn - and the SNP love Johnson - you need someone "bad" to get your supporters angry... I just can't see a "both sides" to this debate though



The next leadership election could be rather messy... May took over at pretty short notice in pretty unusual circumstances (when "getting someone to stabilise the party" was most important) - Johnson was effectively a procession into power - there's not been a proper *debate* in the Tory party for some time (over fifteen years since Cameron started leading the party) - but the next campaign would mean some much tougher questions being asked

You may well be right there, but I think that there were various decisions made in the latter half of last year that would have contributed to the rise in infections, and I think it has certainly benefitted those of the pro restriction viewpoint to try and scapegoat eat out to help out.
 

317 forever

Established Member
Joined
21 Aug 2010
Messages
1,851
Location
North West
I think the Tories' poll rating is inflated because so many people like Boris's charisma.

It is worth noting that in 2019 they achieved a smaller majority, and Labour a higher vote share, than in 1983.

As it is, I think May 2021 with their local election seat and Hartlepool by-election wins may have been peak Boris. The loss at Amersham and non-gain at Batley suggests his support is levelling off now. Even recent polls have mainly given the Tories single-digit poll leads compared with several over 10% a few weeks ago.
 

Senex

Established Member
Joined
1 Apr 2014
Messages
2,616
Location
York
Whether Johnson goes on his own terms or is deposed and pushed out doesn't seem to have much connection with what might happen at a later general election. Surely a significant part of the Tpry lead in public opinion is nothing to do with Johnson but is rather down to the fact that there is no alternative—Labour, the only party that could form a different government, just doesn't seem to stand for anything at all at the moment and is neither an effective oppositionm nor a government in waiting. Until some form of oppositikon gets its act in order and looks like a credible alternative, I fear we're stuck with the abomination that is the present Tory mob in power. Johnson seems free to choose his own time to go unless there is some sort of major upset — too many of the electorate actually appear to like his amateurish, cheeky chappie, it's-all-really-a-bit-of-a-joke image.
 

Butts

Established Member
Joined
16 Jan 2011
Messages
10,713
Location
Stirlingshire
They may have one Election Win left in them aka Major trumping over Kinnock but then that will be it.

Buggins turn will propel Labour back into power, but it is more difficult without their 40 odd Scottish "cannon fodder " contingent.
 

BrokenSam

Member
Joined
18 May 2020
Messages
200
Location
North Wales
I'm tired of this misrepresentation of "eat out to help out" that seems to have been cultivated by the pro-lockdown brigade.

At the time with infection rates low, people abiding by the rule of six etc was worth doing.

Just because some people took it as carte blanche to have everyone round doesn't make the scheme flawed.
Misrepresentation? How so? I'm not pro lockdown. I'm pro follow the science. It was a terrible idea. People acted exactly as they were asked too.
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
32,480
Location
Yorks
Misrepresentation? How so? I'm not pro lockdown. I'm pro follow the science. It was a terrible idea. People acted exactly as they were asked too.

There were lots of other relaxations of the rules at around the same time, but the pro restriction people choose to emphasise "eat out to help out" because it helps to scapegoat hospitality.
 

BrokenSam

Member
Joined
18 May 2020
Messages
200
Location
North Wales
There were lots of other relaxations of the rules at around the same time, but the pro restriction people choose to emphasise "eat out to help out" because it helps to scapegoat hospitality.
Fair enough. I don't understand this pro restriction term though? Isn't it just people who want to ensure we don't end up back where we are within months? Never met a person who wants it to stay like this personally...
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
32,480
Location
Yorks
Fair enough. I don't understand this pro restriction term though? Isn't it just people who want to ensure we don't end up back where we are within months? Never met a person who wants it to stay like this personally...

Well, we have them now, chirping up about how we need to continue restrictions, even though the vaccine rollout is having its effect.

They need to have their wings clipped as far as I'm concerned. They're too used to dictating policy at the moment. They need to get back to following it.
 
Last edited:

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
32,480
Location
Yorks
The people "chirping" loudest are doctors concerned that rising infection rates increase the likelihood of more medically resistant variants developing and that full (domestic) normality should wait until we achieve genuine herd immunity, likely to be in September. That's called science.

We have a far more variable virus that circulates every year called flu and we don't alter society for it.

That's called science.
 

JamesT

Established Member
Joined
25 Feb 2015
Messages
1,430
The people "chirping" loudest are doctors concerned that rising infection rates increase the likelihood of more medically resistant variants developing and that full (domestic) normality should wait until we achieve genuine herd immunity, likely to be in September. That's called science. It remains to be seen whether politicians will continue to follow the science: given the noises Javid has made I doubt it. But AFAIAC Johnson has been hopeless on this from the very beginning and I think he knows it, hence the public enquiry being timed for many months in the future when he hopes people will have forgotten.

But more generally sitting governments are brought down or voted out for two reasons: poor economic performance or scandal/sleaze. Every chance BoJo will have walked away before either of those has happened.

Some doctors are calling for restrictions to continue, others have said that weighing the harm caused by continued restrictions versus the potential issues from loosening has them coming down on the side of loosening. There doesn’t appear to be enough of a consensus that you could say the science on this is settled.
Certainly from what I saw of early minutes of their meetings, the government has generally followed the recommendations of SAGE.
 

birchesgreen

Established Member
Joined
16 Jun 2020
Messages
2,988
Location
Birmingham
Can we keep the endless and incredibly tedious circular covid arguments in the covid forum, where they can be best avoided?

As for the original question, maybe when the truce between the various warring factions in the Tory party ends. They are fairly united at the moment though any PM is never far from being stabbed in the front by his colleagues.
 

Sad Sprinter

Member
Joined
5 Jun 2017
Messages
1,044
Location
Way on down South London town
As soon as labour brings out some policies - as what happened in 2017. The Tories bang the drum on “levelling-up”, but I think they’re quite unsure (and possibly slightly unwilling) to understand what that truly means.
 

oldman

Member
Joined
26 Nov 2013
Messages
855
We seem to have drifted off into Covid again.

Going back to potential problems for Tories:

Current Covid strategy - relaxation during a new wave - turns out to be unsuccessful. Nobody knows.
Hospital waiting lists
Covid blame game - after Hancock, Johnson is the obvious scapegoat. Maybe people will get bored with endless revelations, maybe not.
Length and depth of post-Covid recession - “It's the economy, stupid”
Brexit consequentials e.g. lorry drivers, empty shelves. (How much would it take to restart panic buying?) A lot of Tory members supported brexit, a lot of supporters did not - see Amersham
Tax and spend - increased tax through freezing allowances (the most unfair way, naturally) combined with spending cuts. Not a popular combination.

In the end it's about public mood. The Tories, aided as always by the Labour left, have done their best to weaken Starmer as an alternative, but if the public has a sense of malaise, the feeling will be 'it's time for a change'.
 

deltic

Established Member
Joined
8 Feb 2010
Messages
2,666
Its unforeseen events and internal divisions within parties that generally bring down PMs - given that the last 4 Tory PMs have gone over the EU and that issue has now been removed it is difficult to foresee what will bring down the present government.

Possibly people losing patience with NHS waiting lists, a fluffed reform of social care or a long term return to austerity.

If I was a Tory I would be feeling very smug now.
 

Top