When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[MattRat]

How many times will we as a country let him claim he is taking responsibility but actually doing literally nothing? Stepping down would be taking responsibility. Admitted that you were wrong and lied about it would be taking responsibility. Just saying "I am taking responsibility" means nothing without the actions to support it.

It depends on if we stop telling him to resign and actually find something to get him 'fired' instead.....

 

[dosxuk]

How many times will we as a country let him claim he is taking responsibility but actually doing literally nothing? Stepping down would be taking responsibility. Admitted that you were wrong and lied about it would be taking responsibility. Just saying "I am taking responsibility" means nothing without the actions to support it.

Likewise, he keeps saying he has been "humbled" by the report too - I don't think he realises what that means either.

 

[Howardh]

Likewise, he keeps saying he has been "humbled" by the report too - I don't think he realises what that means either.

Think he thinks it's "rumbled". That's why he's "sorry".

 

[MattRat]

Likewise, he keeps saying he has been "humbled" by the report too - I don't think he realises what that means either.

He's humbled because she didn't rat him out. The report is as thick as tissue paper, utterly pointless. Can't wait till he throws her under the bus and she realises she picked the wrong side......

 

[AM9]

It depends on if we stop telling him to resign and actually find something to get him 'fired' instead.....

If there was a General Election tomorrow, how many Conservative voters who complain about him would actually be prepared to prevent him being PM by voting for another party?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

If there was a General Election tomorrow, how many Conservative voters who complain about him would actually be prepared to prevent him being PM by voting for another party?

Not I, that's for certain. I see "real Labour" as being in the type you find running the RMT union.

 

[Purple Orange]

I'm not sure about how the Labour leader is elected, how much power the members have?

The Labour leader is elected on the basis of one member, one vote. This is based upon party members, registered supports and affiliate supports (via trade unions). So in the last leadership election, there were just under 500,000 votes from a potential of just under 800,000 people. Starmer won with over 50% among all three groups, the highest being registered supporters at over 75%. He got 56% of the vote in all.

To get on the ballot paper, you need 10% of MPs supporting you, then at least 5% of Constituency Labour Parties or 3 affiliate organisations.

 

[nw1]

If there was a General Election tomorrow, how many Conservative voters who complain about him would actually be prepared to prevent him being PM by voting for another party?

A lot of swing voters, I would guess. Probably quite a few of the Red Wallers who, in the words of something I read shortly afterwards, "lent" their vote to the Tories to prevent a Corbyn victory.

But the comment up-thread perhaps suggests the real reason Johnson might not be forced out. During the economic crisis it might make sense (from a Tory POV) for the Tories to keep Johnson on (and let him take the blame) and then throw him out the moment things start to look a bit better. If there was an election this year, of course, it would be a different matter.

 

[Failed Unit]

If there was a General Election tomorrow, how many Conservative voters who complain about him would actually be prepared to prevent him being PM by voting for another party?

That is my problem, I can say to Mr Shapps that I will no longer vote for him because I don't like what Boris has done and him constantly defending him. But I have never voted for him anyway. Most true blue Tories are highlighting about a the war etc. I can't see the swing happening. The "red wall" however maybe, but probably not for this more for the energy crisis.

 

[brad465]

Unfortunately, my current affliction (had a TIA last week) means that I am finding a great deal of difficulty in researching matters, so I ask anyone on this website what is the salary of:-
A)...The Prime Minister
B)...The Cabinet Secretary

A) £161,401
B) ~£200,000

Answers include the source links. There maybe other expenses they each get that are not clear, such as the Downing Street Flat and access to Chequers for the PM.

A fair question. I think if the Government did decide to do that, I'd be very disappointed. And I'd probably see it as evidence of a Government that has lost it's way, is running out of ideas, and is as a result just caving into populism. And I think I'd also become much more inclined to hope that Conservative MPs do get rid of Boris as leader, and replace him with someone who's more willing to do what is right rather than what is popular.

Sounds fair, there were rumours Sunak might resign if made to implement such a tax, which were that to happen would make Johnson being deposed a lot more likely, but Sunak seems to have survived far worse with regards to his image.

 

[Purple Orange]

That is my problem, I can say to Mr Shapps that I will no longer vote for him because I don't like what Boris has done and him constantly defending him. But I have never voted for him anyway. Most true blue Tories are highlighting about a the war etc. I can't see the swing happening. The "red wall" however maybe, but probably not for this more for the energy crisis.

It’s less of an issue of the conservative voter base switching to another party, but how many will stay at home. Polling also suggests that the red wall seats are predominantly lost anyway, because they voted Tory on a single issue and trust has been lost. The more pertinent issue of the cost of living is far more pressing in the red wall areas and the Tories are left floundering on this issue. We then have the Lib Dems who have had a resurgence in the Tory remain seats and the south west. As it stands, there will be large loses for the Tories in the next election, but the question is by how much, rather than if.

 

[jfollows]

My view reflected in the comment attached:

A senior Tory MP tells @politicshome: "Today is the day he [Johnson] got in the clear, but also the day when I realised we will lose the next general election"

Conservative MPs believe the PM will survive (again), but at what cost to their 2024 prospects?https://t.co/rvyNBw85Zf

— Adam Payne (@adampayne26) May 25, 2022

The large number of Tory MPs who sit on their hands and won't get rid of Boris Johnson will come to rue their inactivity.

Tory MPs Expect Boris Johnson To Survive Gray Report But Warn That Next Election Will Be Lost​

Adam Payne
@adampayne26

Conservative MPs expect Boris Johnson to avoid a vote of no confidence after the publication of the Sue Gray report, telling PoliticsHome that there isn't sufficient momentum to get rid of him.
However, one senior Tory MP said that while the Prime Minister will probably survive this latest threat to his leadership, it means the party is on course to lose the next general election.

"Today is the day he [Johnson] got in the clear, but also the day when I realised we will lose the next general election," they said on Wednesday.

The feeling among Conservative MPs following the report's publication this morning is that while it was another damaging moment for Johnson, it is unlikely to trigger a rebellion of Tory MPs large enough to hit the 54 letters needed to trigger a vote of no confidence in him.

One senior backbencher who is highly critical of Johnson said the senior civil servant's report, which contained pictures as well as text, was "bad, but not fatal" for his leadership.

The expectation within the party on Wednesday afternoon is that while handful of Conservative MPs may submit letters to 1922 Committee Chairman Graham Brady as a result of Gray's findings being made public, there will not be a large influx of signatures.

A Tory MP elected in 2019 who previously supported Johnson said the party was on course to lose the next election under Johnson's leadership, but that there was no serious effort to replace him.

Julian Sturdy, Tory MP for York Outer, became the latest MP to call for Johnson to resign, releasing a statement on Wednesday afternoon that "unable to give the Prime Minister the benefit of the doubt".

"it is clear discussions about parties in Downing Street remain a damaging distraction at a time when our country faces massive challenges with war returning to Europe, a global cost of living crisis, and our recovery from the pandemic being more important than ever," he wrote.

"This is clearly a time when we cannot have any doubt about the honesty, integrity, and personal character of the Prime Minister.

A Conservative MP who is more supportive of the Prime Minister, however, said "obviously [there was] lots of bad stuff" in Gray's report "but I'm really not convinced that there's anything in the big picture we didn't already know".

The report, which was published earlier today, said many of the events which took place in Downing Street and Whitehall during the coronavirus lockdown "should not have been allowed to happen," and that the attendance of senior figures at them gave the impression to junior employees that they were permitted.

“The senior leadership at the centre, both political and official, must bear responsibility for this culture," Gray said.

The report said events investigated were "not in line with Covid guidance at the time” and that "even allowing for the extraordinary pressures officials and advisers were under, the factual findings of this report illustrate some attitudes and behaviours inconsistent with that guidance."

It found that cleaners and security workers were subjected to "lack of respect and poor treatment" by those who attended the rule-breaking events, and that attendees were encouraged by senior officials to ensure they are not caught on camera "walking around waving bottles of wine etc".

In a press conference this afternoon, Johnson repeatedly said he would not resign over the report.

However, a YouGov poll published today to coincide with the publication of Gray's work found that nearly two thirds of people believed Johnson should quit, while 30% said he should not.

Senior Tory MP Tobias Ellwood, who has already submitted a letter of no confidence in the prime minister, today urged other Conservative MPs to move to get rid of Johnson, asking them: "Can we win the general election on this current trajectory?"

Douglas Ross MP, the Conservative party's leader in Scotland who previously called on Johnson to quit over partygate but then withdrew his remarks, said today Johnson should resign as Prime Minister once the war in Ukraine is over.

 

[43096]

From the press conference Johnson held earlier...

Paul Brand, the ITV journalist behind several Partygate exclusives, says the PM saw what was going on in his home, participated in it and made the rules. "So, it does beg the question: are you a liar?" he asks.

"No," Johnson replies.

Of course, that in itself is a lie.

 

[jfollows]

Likewise, he keeps saying he has been "humbled" by the report too - I don't think he realises what that means either.

“we are humbled”, not “I am humbled”, though.
Who is this “we”?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

“we are humbled”, not “I am humbled”, though.
Who is this “we”?

Him and 'er indoors...

 

[43096]

Him and 'er indoors...

Or whoever is going to be thrown under the bus to save the skin of this pathetic narcissist.

 

[DarloRich]

Johnson is a despicable creature who should be dragged from Downing Street, stripped of office, debagged and made to call at the door of every person in the UK who applies to give him a slap with a wet fish. He should then be sent to start a new life in Rwanda with no chance of parole.

Every time he speaks the news channels should play liar liar by the Castaways:

Liar, liar, pants on fire
Your nose is longer than a telephone wire

EDIT: we all know he wont quit, wont be sacked and will just carry on dragging this country deeper and deeper into the 4hit though his behaviour and the fact that he is a deeply unserious man leading a deeply unserious government at a time of increasing hardship for many and international tension. We are chuffed.

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

I always think this country gets the government that it deserves. Nuff said.

 

[Shrop]

How many times will we as a country let him claim he is taking responsibility but actually doing literally nothing? Stepping down would be taking responsibility. Admitted that you were wrong and lied about it would be taking responsibility. Just saying "I am taking responsibility" means nothing without the actions to support it.

Absolutely. In most professions when there is serious misconduct by staff, the person at the top has their position made vulnerable, as Cressida Dick (Former Head of Met Police) found to her cost. She is just one of many examples, but had she had the luxury of being able to stand in front of those questioning her, surrounded by an army of baying supporters shouting down her critics, who were then given hours and hours and hours of TV and Radio airtime to answer every single question by trotting out comments about all the good things she has done, then perhaps she might still be in post. No, she was forced into taking genuine responsibility for the actions of her workforce, whereas Boris is permitted to get away with simply saying he didn't know about the law-breaking actions of his underlings.
Where else is ignorance an excuse in law? Imagine if those caught speeding said "Ah, sorry officer, I didn't realise". Even Monty Python would be proud of writing a police response which said "Okay, I'll let you off this time but just don't be a naughty boy and don't do it again". No, being caught driving at 35mph on a quiet road at night on a long straight road with no other traffic around attracts a fine. No excuses. End of story. AND whilst being fined more than Boris and his colleagues were for having a "jolly" in full knowledge of it being against the law.
People who get fined for marginal breaking of speed limits can't use the defence that they drive in order to perform countless acts of good for their relatives or local communities either. But it seems that Boris and his cohorts can use the excuse that they also do other things which don't break the law. Ad nauseum. And then some.
Then, how does the fine meted out to Boris & co compare to the far, far bigger fines (£1000 or more) issued to many others who committed far less serious offences - like two people sitting together outside in a park. And unless I'm much mistaken, a lot of those fined large sums have far less in their banks than many of our politicians do.
So Boris points out that he and his colleagues work many long hours and they're entitled to something to cheer themselves up. Tell that to all the NHS staff who work greater hours than politicians, for a fraction of their pay, and who are then forced to head home alone without any partying, simply to get up the next day to perform many, many more hours of duty. The reward of NHS staff for huge self sacrifice taking us through the Pandemic? A 1% pay rise. MPs get a lot more than that - year after year after year.
The list goes on. And on. And on. Okay, so we might not have a good credible alternative, but how can anyone possibly deny that our political system is chronically broken and in very serious need of a major review?

 

[Busaholic]

I always think this country gets the government that it deserves. Nuff said.

What have we done to deserve it? My answers would be apathy, self-satisfaction and self-delusion,

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

What have we done to deserve it? My answers would be apathy, self-satisfaction and self-delusion,

Small mindedness, jealousy, selfishness, one-upmanship and good old nationalistic hubris.

 

[SteveM70]

“we are humbled”, not “I am humbled”, though.
Who is this “we”?

To be fair to Johnson (how I hate myself for saying this), a lot of people in all walks of life love to say “I” when things are going well, but “we” when the proverbial hits the fan

 

[Luke McDonnell]

Just asking your opinion on what will happen come the next General Election do you think the Tories will be out of power I have read opinions from some (not on here) that the Conservatives could still win next time even with Boris still in charge and on this the poster said that he thinks that scenario - Cons winning next election with BJ still as leader would be even worse because BJ could say that the electorate had cleared him of wrongdoing I am surprised that some are saying that the Tories could still get a majority considering all the goings on and also if you include the Coalition if the Tories continued until 2019 I think that would be the longest unbroken period of Tory rule since the early 19th century so really going against trends - what do those on here think I would like to see a change next time around and we are due a change of government also look at Australia they have just had a change of government with Scott Morrison being voted out after a long time in power. I think Labour will get in again sooner rather than later even if they don't get a majority but my uncle (who is pro-Brexit) said to me that he thinks Labour will never be in power again in our lifetimes which I think is very pessimistic - he seems to think we will become a dominant party state not a one party dictatorship but a democratic regime in which one party (Tory) are permanently in government either on their own or in a coalition rather like post war Japan (LDP) or Singapore (Peoples Action Party) - that is not the sort of outcome I would like to see in a healthy democracy he thinks it will happen because the Red Wall Brexit voters will not forgive Labour for disrupting Brexit but I explained that Brexit will not be an issue at the next election other issues like cost of living will come to the helm - be nice to hear other thoughts on this?

 

[87 027]

Just asking your opinion on what will happen come the next General Election do you think the Tories will be out of power I have read opinions from some (not on here) that the Conservatives could still win next time even with Boris still in charge and on this the poster said that he thinks that scenario - Cons winning next election with BJ still as leader would be even worse because BJ could say that the electorate had cleared him of wrongdoing I am surprised that some are saying that the Tories could still get a majority considering all the goings on and also if you include the Coalition if the Tories continued until 2019 I think that would be the longest unbroken period of Tory rule since the early 19th century so really going against trends - what do those on here think I would like to see a change next time around and we are due a change of government also look at Australia they have just had a change of government with Scott Morrison being voted out after a long time in power. I think Labour will get in again sooner rather than later even if they don't get a majority but my uncle (who is pro-Brexit) said to me that he thinks Labour will never be in power again in our lifetimes which I think is very pessimistic - he seems to think we will become a dominant party state not a one party dictatorship but a democratic regime in which one party (Tory) are permanently in government either on their own or in a coalition rather like post war Japan (LDP) or Singapore (Peoples Action Party) - that is not the sort of outcome I would like to see in a healthy democracy he thinks it will happen because the Red Wall Brexit voters will not forgive Labour for disrupting Brexit but I explained that Brexit will not be an issue at the next election other issues like cost of living will come to the helm - be nice to hear other thoughts on this?

I have just come up for air after reading your post!

I remember the 1970s. There was a saying coined back then, 'a week is a long time in politics'. Who knows whether the next general election will be 2022, 2023, 2034 or 2025? I think the most likely scenario is that the politics of today will be a distant memory and people will have to weigh up, for their own household situation, the record of the existing government against the proposals of the alternatives on offer at the point they have to put X in the ballot box.

 

[AlterEgo]

Small mindedness, jealousy, selfishness, one-upmanship and good old nationalistic hubris.

Seeing as these are no doubt the fault of other Brits, what sort of government do you think you personally deserve?

 

[Gloster]

I have just come up for air after reading your post!

I remember the 1970s. There was a saying coined back then, 'a week is a long time in politics'. Who knows whether the next general election will be 2022, 2023, 2034 or 2025? I think the most likely scenario is that the politics of today will be a distant memory and people will have to weigh up, for their own household situation, the record of the existing government against the proposals of the alternatives on offer at the point they have to put X in the ballot box.

Well, I hope it isn’t 2034 or 2025!

Partygate may be not be such an immediate concern at the moment, due to the increase in the cost of living and (further back) the war in Ukraine, but it will not take a great deal to remind people of it when the election comes. Too many people kept to the rules and missed out on important events, while the constant dodging about of Johnson means that it is deep in people’s memory. The only think that the Conservatives can do is find a major distraction, such as war with France.

 

[87 027]

Unfortunately, my current affliction (had a TIA last week) means that I am finding a great deal of difficulty in researching matters, so I ask anyone on this website what is the salary of:-
A)...The Prime Minister
B)...The Cabinet Secretary

I am struggling to discern the thinking behind your query. I see a narrative emerging that now we have left the EU, the civil service is now in the crosshairs and no-one should earn more than the PM (irrespective of the going rate in industry and internationally for comparable responsibilities, accountabilities, budgets etc. Maybe the civil service should reduce itself to a core commissioning function with delivery contracted out to the likes of Capita, Serco etc. etc,?

 

[brad465]

So an energy support package worth £10bn is due to be announced tomorrow, and it looks like a windfall tax will be going ahead, with cuts in Council Tax and VAT on fuel speculated:

Energy bills to be cut by hundreds as part of support package worth billions

The support package is expected to be partly funded by a windfall tax on oil and gas firms.

www.bbc.co.uk

A £10bn package of support is set to be unveiled by the government to help households with soaring energy bills.
Schemes such as the Warm Home Discount could be expanded and council tax cuts may also be announced by Chancellor Rishi Sunak on Thursday.
One-off payments to some vulnerable households and another cut in VAT on fuel could also be announced.
The support package is expected to be funded in part by a windfall tax on oil and gas firms which could raise £7bn.
The government has come under intense pressure to act as the cost of living soars for households, but some senior members of the cabinet have been against taxing energy companies over fears it would reduce investment from them in UK projects.
The package comes as the government is under fire after Sue Gray's report into lockdown parties in Downing Street was published, with Boris Johnson keen to move on to deliver what he calls "people's priorities".

The Treasury said the government understood "that people are struggling with rising prices" and said Mr Sunak had been "clear that as the situation evolves, so will our response".
A spokesman added people "most vulnerable" from prices rising were the chancellor's "number one priority".
The Treasury said Mr Sunak would set out the details of further support, which is understood to be £10bn, on Thursday.
The current Warm Home Discount scheme offers low income households a £150 one-off annual discount on their electricity bill between October and March. Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced in February the scheme was being extended to March 2026 and opened up to three million people.
Support has also been deployed in the form of a £200 reduction in energy bills this autumn, but the money will have to be paid back over the next five years, as well as a £150 council tax rebate for people living in bands A-D in England. Similar schemes are in place in Wales and Scotland.
The typical household energy bill alone soared on average by £700 in April and is are set to rise by a further £800 in October, the UK's energy regulator warned.
The boss of Ofgem told MPs on Tuesday the energy price cap, which limits how much providers can raise prices, is expected to increase due to continued volatility in gas prices.
It means the typical household bill could rise by £800 per year to £2,800 and Ofgem warned 12 million households could be placed into fuel poverty.
The windfall tax has been called for by the Labour Party, but opposed by many in the Conservative government's cabinet, including Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng.
It is understood the Prime Minister sided with Mr Sunak to support the tax on energy firms.
A windfall tax is a way the government can raise money and is a type of charge which targets firms that are lucky enough to benefit from something they were not responsible for - in other words - a windfall.
In the case of energy companies, firms such as Shell and BP made record profits because gas and oil prices rocketed, most recently due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Shell reported a record £7bn profit in the first three months of this year while BP made £5bn, the highest for 10 years.
However, James Spencer, managing director of fuel consultancy Portland Analytics, warned although oil and gas companies had made bumper profits, he didn't think they were "unfairly profiteering".
He said the industry is "very cyclical" and companies "ride the ups and downs".
"In the pandemic, the likes of Shell and BP lost about £5bn...in 2020," he told the BBC's Today programme.
"They didn't go to the bank with a cap in hand saying please bail us out, like the banks normally do. In 2022 I think both BP and Shell have written off up to £10bn possibly each in Russia."
Proposals to tax income from other electricity producers such as some older windfarms and nuclear plants which have also seen windfall gains have been shelved.
The energy price cap already increased sharply in April to £1,971, meaning that homes using a typical amount of gas and electricity are now paying an extra £700 per year on average.
Higher energy bills are pushing prices to rise at the fastest rate for 40 years, with fuel and food costs also biting into household budgets.

 

[87 027]

Well, I hope it isn’t 2034 or 2025!

Quite right to pull me up on this! Seriously, I remember the 1980s. Maggie, the Falklands etc. I do recall she had a strong sense of purpose

 

[jon0844]

If there was a General Election tomorrow, how many Conservative voters who complain about him would actually be prepared to prevent him being PM by voting for another party?

Me. I used to vote Conservative and wouldn't vote for them today (nor have I in recent general or local elections). Changing PM wouldn't be enough either; the whole party needs to change.

I accept I might be in the minority though; most people start off believing in socialism and move towards the right as they get older and more bitter, but I've seemingly done the opposite. I used to vote Conservative as I ran my own business and perhaps had a slightly skewed, perhaps even selfish view of society. However, I do believe the Tories of the 90s and even under the coalition, was not even remotely like what we have now.

I do think that those who have always voted Labour and went for the Tories merely to 'get Brexit done' will reconsider, however.

[Edit; our local councillor retired this year and the Conservatives put up a younger candidate. As I'm still a member, he came to my door to check on my support and I apologised and said I couldn't vote for him because of the party issues - and he wasn't actually that surprised and his reaction suggested he'd been told this by more than just me. I can be pretty sure of this because despite having had a conservative councillor for the last 20-odd years, he lost.].

Well, I hope it isn’t 2034 or 2025!

Partygate may be not be such an immediate concern at the moment, due to the increase in the cost of living and (further back) the war in Ukraine, but it will not take a great deal to remind people of it when the election comes. Too many people kept to the rules and missed out on important events, while the constant dodging about of Johnson means that it is deep in people’s memory. The only think that the Conservatives can do is find a major distraction, such as war with France.

More likely some sort of trade war with the USA and other countries over Northern Ireland, and I guess Boris going on to get the country believing it's all down to the evil EU and getting himself more support from the loyal #backboris brigade (which it seems were out in force today, with my Chrome extension that analyses Twitter accounts showing almost all to be suspicious accounts) who will be waving the flag...

The Tories are, in my opinion, screwed if they think they can just bide their time and hope things get better. I am sure they hoped to bumble along and then give some tax breaks before the election in 2024, but that will be too long. The question now is do they rush out some changes (like windfall taxes) with Boris able to claim the credit, or get rid of him and let someone else come in to try and 'fix' things and give the impression there's a change in direction for the party?

I am sure Boris is going to rush through something to try and change the narrative, and I also expect it will be peanuts in terms of dealing with the crisis that so many people are in right now - and we're just at the beginning. The energy rises only kicked in just over a month ago, and there are many more price rises to come across the board.