When will restrictions finally end?

[bramling]

I must have imagined the lockdowns in Scotland then!

Are you actually arguing this yourself, or are you saying this is what people erroneously believe?


Blimey; when even people whop have been supportive of lockdowns and restrictions can see this, it must surely become true!

I wouldn’t bank on it, the lunatics have well and truly taken over the asylum. Just look how gullible (some) people have been over the new upgraded version of Covid.

All it will take is one slight hitch in the vaccination scheme, and I think some kind of showdown between the pro-lockdown and anti-lockdown people would then happen. Someone else posted elsewhere that all it might take it the spectacle of a vaccinated person succumbing to Covid, or something like that.

 

[Huntergreed]

I see “Tier 5”, is the number one trending item on Twitter tonight.

Makes me wonder if some people would rather live in lockdown through choice, the mind boggles!

 

[bramling]

I see “Tier 5”, is the number one trending item on Twitter tonight.

Makes me wonder if some people would rather live in lockdown through choice, the mind boggles!

I’m sure there are people who like the structure of all this.

 

[Scotrail12]

Can't find any reputable sources talking about Tier 5 - I think somebody on Twitter just got bored and decided to be a wind up.

 

[NorthOxonian]

Can't find any reputable sources talking about Tier 5 - I think somebody just got bored and decided to wind people up on Twitter.

Yep, it seems to have gone viral with most tweets reacting to the fact Tier 5 is trending rather than to any actual announcement.

It's also worth noting that the vast majority of reactions to it are of horror, it's not as if Twitter is full of people clamouring for a new tier.

 

[yorkie]

Yep, it seems to have gone viral with most tweets reacting to the fact Tier 5 is trending rather than to any actual announcement.

It's also worth noting that the vast majority of reactions to it are of horror, it's not as if Twitter is full of people clamouring for a new tier.

Yes, this is what happens on Twitter. It is often the case that most of the tweets that cause a term to be trending are tweets that express horror or dissatisfaction that the term is trending.

The more people who moan that a term is trending, the more it trends. It happens all the time!

That said, I would not be surprised if we do see an announcement soon of a new Tier 5, which is similar to Tier 4, but sees schools shut

 

[NorthOxonian]

Yes, this is what happens on Twitter. It is often the case that most of the tweets that cause a term to be trending are tweets that express horror or dissatisfaction that the term is trending.

The more people who moan that a term is trending, the more it trends. It happens all the time!

Having dug deeper, it seems to have come from someone tweeting about a Daily Express article from a few days back. Like the Express is wont to do, it was a rather extreme headline warning that Tier 5 was possible based on very little evidence.

 

[Ian Cunningham]

Coming back on topic - ScotGov have generally been a bit more cautious with relaxing restrictions and i think still have a lot of support for that (not uncritical though) There is a widespread feeling here that UKGov were a bit cavalier with their easings in England with Lockdown 2 the Sequel being the (avoidable) result.

I must have imagined the lockdowns in Scotland then!
Are you actually arguing this yourself, or are you saying this is what people erroneously believe?

I think you must have - we have avoided a full national lockdown (although the current Level 4 restrictions on the mainland are pretty much there now) with it being handled within the protection level structure.
Yes there have been some pretty extensive restrictions for extended periods but they have been targeted by area which has kept (until now) many areas out of heavy restrictions

Personally I favour a fairly cautious approach as I think opening up too quickly then having to close back down in short order is more damaging to business than a short delay to opening
Several theatres in London have now had to close shows twice on very short notice (lockdown 2 and the recent Tier 4) and that's probably been worse for them than hunkering down and staying closed
I see a range of opinions on social media etc but overall a "rather safe than sorry" approach seems to have most support overall -this is not unequivocal support for restrictions by any means but there seems to be an acceptance that these are neccessary if unwelcome steps

Unless the new strains cause significantly more hospitalisations and deaths I can see restrictions easing from March onwards (no government will want to still have significant restrictions one year on as it's A Significant Round Number).
I can see Boris wanting a big "glorious dawn" big-bang relaxation of rules with ScotGov and the Welsh Government taking a more staged approach (probably still using the Tiers/Levels system) to ease back in

Blimey; when even people whop have been supportive of lockdowns and restrictions can see this, it must surely become true!

You've tried to paint me as "locktivist" a couple of times now, Yes I support a sensible level of restrictions that are not constantly chopped and changed, Yes I would rather err on the side of caution particularly if that avoids a yo-yo into and out of restrictions. I do think some restrictions are, at best, pointless and some do more harm than good and I do think some sectors (such as hospitality) have been unfairly scapegoated but I do accept that we can't "let it rip" like some advocate.
I did have a couple of quite lively discussions with my brother over Christmas who is much more in favour of lockdowns than I am
Bear in mind that I work in an industry that was hit first and will probably recover last -we've been closed by law since March and I've had shows cancelled up until April 2021 so far -the last thing I need from a business point of view is further or long term restrictions.

I also said *easing* - I'm not expecting a free for all, I think a progressive move over a few weeks through a structure similar to Tiers/levels probably varying by sector is a pragmatic approach. I all goes well it's just a short delay, if it all goes tits up then we have a better chance to react
.

 

[Bantamzen]

I think you must have - we have avoided a full national lockdown (although the current Level 4 restrictions on the mainland are pretty much there now) with it being handled within the protection level structure.
Yes there have been some pretty extensive restrictions for extended periods but they have been targeted by area which has kept (until now) many areas out of heavy restrictions

Personally I favour a fairly cautious approach as I think opening up too quickly then having to close back down in short order is more damaging to business than a short delay to opening
Several theatres in London have now had to close shows twice on very short notice (lockdown 2 and the recent Tier 4) and that's probably been worse for them than hunkering down and staying closed
I see a range of opinions on social media etc but overall a "rather safe than sorry" approach seems to have most support overall -this is not unequivocal support for restrictions by any means but there seems to be an acceptance that these are neccessary if unwelcome steps





You've tried to paint me as "locktivist" a couple of times now, Yes I support a sensible level of restrictions that are not constantly chopped and changed, Yes I would rather err on the side of caution particularly if that avoids a yo-yo into and out of restrictions. I do think some restrictions are, at best, pointless and some do more harm than good and I do think some sectors (such as hospitality) have been unfairly scapegoated but I do accept that we can't "let it rip" like some advocate.
I did have a couple of quite lively discussions with my brother over Christmas who is much more in favour of lockdowns than I am
Bear in mind that I work in an industry that was hit first and will probably recover last -we've been closed by law since March and I've had shows cancelled up until April 2021 so far -the last thing I need from a business point of view is further or long term restrictions.

I also said *easing* - I'm not expecting a free for all, I think a progressive move over a few weeks through a structure similar to Tiers/levels probably varying by sector is a pragmatic approach. I all goes well it's just a short delay, if it all goes tits up then we have a better chance to react
.

So you would favour a slow easing of restrictions, but also a quick retreat at the first sign of more spread? Or in other words the very thing you said earlier you were against, yo-yoing in and out of restrictions. Which is exactly what will happen, because viruses surprisingly don't obey human set rules. Their one and only function is to spread, and spread they will including this one. It is way beyond time for all of the world to get this back into our heads.

We have the means to protect those that are most vulnerable, although this will not be 100% guaranteed of course, life will still present risks. But if we use the various tools at our disposal, better healthcare, treatments & vaccines to protect those we can, this should lead to a one way street out of restrictions with no looking back. We will have to get used to numbers peaking & troughing, but we have to do that with all diseases regardless of the availability of treatments and / or vaccines.

Be under no illusion, if you think 2020 was economically tough, 2021 has got some very nasty surprises waiting for us all. The Chancellor has the unenviable job of trying to reverse over half a trillion pounds worth of additional spending deficit, with a total now beyond 2 trillion. Without a pretty rapid restart to the economy and the removal of millions more people relying purely on state assistance & back into tax paying employment, this will become so difficult that he will have little option but to make deep, painful cuts into public services, triggering Austerity v2.0 as well as going after a lot of tax increases. The net result will be a lot less income sloshing about for a very long time. You mention that you work in a sector that was hit first and will probably recover last. Well at the risk of sounding horrible, without a quick restart in a few weeks, or at most a couple of months, you may need to consider a career change because some sectors may never recover. And you'll be far from alone, millions of people furloughed for much of 2020 will be facing the same, making the jobs market very challenging. I can't tell you why I know this, but mark my word when I say the government is quietly preparing for just such a scenario.

 

[MP33]

I have neighbours who appeared to not take the wearing of masks and distancing seriously. They are now that there was a hearse with a coffin in it parked down the street. The deceased was someone who we knew of, but not actually knew.

I suspect get rid of the irresponsible people and the rest will get the message and we will on the way to the end.

The anti vac people will change their opinions once there kind get it.

 

[duncanp]

Even the ubiquitous "SAGE scientists" are saying that the Oxford Vaccine will allow the UK to achieve herd immunity by the summer.

UK reaches 41,385 cases in new daily record

Covid-19 cases recorded in a single day have risen above 40,000 for the first time, as Public Health England (PHE) warned "hospitals are at their most vulnerable".

www.telegraph.co.uk

The Oxford University vaccine could see Britain achieve herd immunity by the summer, according to a leading scientist.

Professor Calum Semple, a respiratory disease expert and member of the Government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), said the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine is a "game changer" in the battle against coronavirus ahead of it's potential approval in the coming days.

Speaking to BBC Breakfast, Prof Semple said: "Obviously there is an urgency about this and we know that it is difficult to vaccinate lots of people at the same time - we've got a population of just under 70 million people and we're going to move through them in an orderly fashion vaccinating people most at risk.

"The people that have been vaccinated will be protected within a matter of weeks and that's very important.

"On an individual basis these vaccines are so good that they will protect individuals, so we don't have to wait for this nonsense about herd immunity developing through natural infection, we can start to protect the individuals.

"To get the wider community herd immunity from vaccination rather than through natural infection will take probably 70% to 80% of the population to be vaccinated, and that, I'm afraid, is going to take us right into the summer I expect."

A Government source has said that a vaccine army of “tens of thousands” of medics and volunteers have been recruited and are ready to administer millions of jabs each week from next month.

The Oxford AstraZeneca jab could be approved as soon as Tuesday by the independent Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, after the final cut of data was submitted by the Government last week.

Britain has ordered 100 million doses of the jab, with 40 million expected to be available by the end of March.

No doubt all the locktivists, Facebook Karens and the Mumsnet Brigade will take that to mean that we cannot ease any restrictions until herd immunity is achieved.

But I would hope that, if herd immunity is achieved by the summer, that is when the last of the restrictions are lifted, not the first.

As soon as the most vulnerable people have been vaccinated, or even just a substantial proportion of them, then restrictions can start to be progressively lifted, possibly by moving the whole country down a tier a month at a time.

 

[C J Snarzell]

I see “Tier 5”, is the number one trending item on Twitter tonight.

Makes me wonder if some people would rather live in lockdown through choice, the mind boggles!

This is all getting ridiculous now. Twitter is just full of idiots constantly speculating and holding court in their own little world. I believe Facebook users like this are known as 'Karens' for some unknown reason.

CJ

 

[Bantamzen]

I have neighbours who appeared to not take the wearing of masks and distancing seriously. They are now that there was a hearse with a coffin in it parked down the street. The deceased was someone who we knew of, but not actually knew.

I suspect get rid of the irresponsible people and the rest will get the message and we will on the way to the end.

The anti vac people will change their opinions once there kind get it.

What has anti-vac got to do with people not wearing masks or distancing properly (in your opinion of course)?

 

[Huntergreed]

I have neighbours who appeared to not take the wearing of masks and distancing seriously. They are now that there was a hearse with a coffin in it parked down the street. The deceased was someone who we knew of, but not actually knew.

I suspect get rid of the irresponsible people and the rest will get the message and we will on the way to the end.

The anti vac people will change their opinions once there kind get it.

What a ridiculous post. Saying it is “irresponsible” not to follow some political rules which actually aren’t proven to have much (if any) impact on the spread of an airborne respiratory virus is just scaremongering.

It’s not so much about people being “irresponsible” or waiting for people of “their kind” to catch it. It’s about the ineffective method applying political solutions to a biological problem and the subsequent self-inflicted damage to the economy that we have caused for little to no measurable benefit.

 

[duncanp]

It’s not so much about people being “irresponsible” or waiting for people of “their kind” to catch it. It’s about the ineffective method applying political solutions to a biological problem and the subsequent self-inflicted damage to the economy that we have caused for little to no measurable benefit.

It is about politicians being seen to be doing something, even if that something is ineffective and pointless.

 

[yorksrob]

Farrar on the news this morning warning of "tough decisions". Undoubtedly this will be continued screwing over of hospitality, as they're always the subject of these "tough decisions".

 

[duncanp]

Farrar on the news this morning warning of "tough decisions". Undoubtedly this will be continued screwing over of hospitality, as they're always the subject of these "tough decisions".

I am not sure that there is much more than the government can do to screw over hospitality.

The continued rise in cases despite the (wholly unwarranted) closure of much of the hospitality sector proves that hospitality is not one the main source of virus transmissions.

SAGE has said that the new variant of the virus is more easily transmissible amongst children. If this is the case, then schools should remain wholly or partially closed until at least the end of January, or possibly the February half term.

Yes it will cause problems for children and families, but it is nonsensical to close down much of society for a third time, for goodness knows how many weeks, whilst leaving one of the main sources of transmission of the virus open as normal.

 

[Bantamzen]

I am not sure that there is much more than the government can do to screw over hospitality.

The continued rise in cases despite the (wholly unwarranted) closure of much of the hospitality sector proves that hospitality is not one the main source of virus transmissions.

SAGE has said that the new variant of the virus is more easily transmissible amongst children. If this is the case, then schools should remain wholly or partially closed until at least the end of January, or possibly the February half term.

Yes it will cause problems for children and families, but it is nonsensical to close down much of society for a third time, for goodness knows how many weeks, whilst leaving one of the main sources of transmission of the virus open as normal.

Given the amount of disruption kids have had already, it makes no sense to further cause them issues. Remember, at some point some of them will become the next generation of scientists so are we really suggesting risking that? No, we have vaccines, treatments and a better understanding of how to help people. No more excuses, lockdowns an other political fudges.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

A lot of people feel the same.

Me too.
As a key worker, I have had to go to work throughout this time. I’ll bloody well resent paying extra tax to pay for people having been paid by government to sit at home. I don’t get the inconsistency. It’s either safe / low potential risk to be outside, or it’s not. If I am not allowed to stay at home, and expected to take on the risk of infection, why should anyone else? We need a functioning economy, not least to fund the NHS we’re all supposed to be protecting.

 

[duncanp]

Given the amount of disruption kids have had already, it makes no sense to further cause them issues. Remember, at some point some of them will become the next generation of scientists so are we really suggesting risking that? No, we have vaccines, treatments and a better understanding of how to help people. No more excuses, lockdowns an other political fudges.

I would agree with keeping schools open if, at the same time, we could progressively start to ease restrictions.

What I would not be happy with is keeping schools open if it meant that other settings (particularly hospitality, but also indoor sports centres, places of worship and non essential shops) had to stay closed for longer than would otherwise be the case.

 

[bramling]

Me too.
As a key worker, I have had to go to work throughout this time. I’ll bloody well resent paying extra tax to pay for people having been paid by government to sit at home. I don’t get the inconsistency. It’s either safe / low potential risk to be outside, or it’s not. If I am not allowed to stay at home, and expected to take on the risk of infection, why should anyone else? We need a functioning economy, not least to fund the NHS we’re all supposed to be protecting.

Agreed fully. If everyone walled themselves up then life would stop, as there would be no food supply, no transport, no NHS, and of course no vaccine.

 

[RuralRambler]

Me too.
As a key worker, I have had to go to work throughout this time. I’ll bloody well resent paying extra tax to pay for people having been paid by government to sit at home. I don’t get the inconsistency. It’s either safe / low potential risk to be outside, or it’s not. If I am not allowed to stay at home, and expected to take on the risk of infection, why should anyone else? We need a functioning economy, not least to fund the NHS we’re all supposed to be protecting.

I agree with your sentiments about paying more tax. BUT, there are also 3 million self employed who were excluded from the govt support schemes. They, too, will resent paying more tax when we're out of this mess. There are millions of students racking up student loan debts for accommodation they can't stay in, courses where they've not seen their lecturers in person, etc - they will also resent paying more tax on top of their student loans with its extortionate interest rates. The "only" fair way is some kind of additional tax for those who benefitted, i.e. those who were furloughed or the self employed/businesses who did receive support, but that's not going to happen. Unfortunately, everyone is going to have to pay more tax, regardless of their circumstances during the lockdowns. Life isn't fair. The only "fair" thing is to spread the tax rises over everyone, i.e. relatively small percentage increases on all the different taxes & duties - the more people who pay a little bit more, the better, rather than one group being hammered whilst other groups aren't affected.

 

[NorthKent1989]

It’s all well and good locktavists and Facebook degree scientists being eager to shut the country down again for “protecting the NHS” but if the economy keeps being shut down then there won’t be an NHS to protect because it’ll be sold off, I’ve tried to explain this to various people but I always get accused of “wanting to kill off old people”

I would actually say that it’s the locktavists who want suicide rates to go up because of mental health, job losses and loneliness, it sickens me how people can act so virtuous

 

[Ian Cunningham]

So you would favour a slow easing of restrictions, but also a quick retreat at the first sign of more spread? Or in other words the very thing you said earlier you were against, yo-yoing in and out of restrictions. Which is exactly what will happen, because viruses surprisingly don't obey human set rules. Their one and only function is to spread, and spread they will including this one. It is way beyond time for all of the world to get this back into our heads.

No I didn't say that - A slower easing to AVOID having to retreat quickly. If the doors are flung open followed by a massive spike in cases that pushes NHS capacity too hard then the shutters will come back down just as fast. If the path is slower then you have time to react and make changes to that plan that don't involve horses and stable doors - the long incubation period of the virus means there's a delayed response to any changes and the route out of this needs to reflect that
True - viruses don't obey human rules, but how they spread is directly influenced by human behaviour - changing the rules changes the behaviour changes the way the virus spreads

We have the means to protect those that are most vulnerable, although this will not be 100% guaranteed of course, life will still present risks. But if we use the various tools at our disposal, better healthcare, treatments & vaccines to protect those we can, this should lead to a one way street out of restrictions with no looking back. We will have to get used to numbers peaking & troughing, but we have to do that with all diseases regardless of the availability of treatments and / or vaccines.

There will be peaks and troughs (when and how big will vary across the country) that is inevitable. If the peaks are within the capacity of healthcare then that's great -carry on chaps, however if the peaks impact too much on the NHS then they need to be managed or we will have to accept otherwise avoidable deaths
The game changer at the moment is the vaccination programme progressively protecting those most at risk from serious illness and death - beside reducing the human toll of Covid it will drastically take pressure of the NHS.

Be under no illusion, if you think 2020 was economically tough, 2021 has got some very nasty surprises waiting for us all. The Chancellor has the unenviable job of trying to reverse over half a trillion pounds worth of additional spending deficit, with a total now beyond 2 trillion. Without a pretty rapid restart to the economy and the removal of millions more people relying purely on state assistance & back into tax paying employment, this will become so difficult that he will have little option but to make deep, painful cuts into public services, triggering Austerity v2.0 as well as going after a lot of tax increases. The net result will be a lot less income sloshing about for a very long time. You mention that you work in a sector that was hit first and will probably recover last. Well at the risk of sounding horrible, without a quick restart in a few weeks, or at most a couple of months, you may need to consider a career change because some sectors may never recover. And you'll be far from alone, millions of people furloughed for much of 2020 will be facing the same, making the jobs market very challenging. I can't tell you why I know this, but mark my word when I say the government is quietly preparing for just such a scenario.

I'm convinced live events and theatre will recover in time (there has been very strong demand for what theatre that has managed to run) but it will be slower than many other sectors and some bits (like festivals and big arena shows) will struggle more for survival than others. The corporate side of events will change though - I can see a lot less travel and a lot more online/hybrid events taking place and that bit of industry is adapting to that

"I know a secret that I can't tell you" is hardly a convincing argument.

 

[Bantamzen]

Appreciate that but you’ve still saved money. I’m on about a more permanent arrangement rather than what has happened over the last few months.

I really haven't, not needing an MCard to commute I've not bought one granted. But as I don't drive I still need to use public transport to go shopping (sometimes having to use taxis wehn public transport was thinner on the grouns) etc so along with additional household costs (and my wife's business being on hold for much of the year with zero income coming from it) I am far from better off. And as the amount it cost to commute is more than the cost of my extra energy bills I can't claim anything back from my employer.

No I didn't say that - A slower easing to AVOID having to retreat quickly. If the doors are flung open followed by a massive spike in cases that pushes NHS capacity too hard then the shutters will come back down just as fast. If the path is slower then you have time to react and make changes to that plan that don't involve horses and stable doors - the long incubation period of the virus means there's a delayed response to any changes and the route out of this needs to reflect that
True - viruses don't obey human rules, but how they spread is directly influenced by human behaviour - changing the rules changes the behaviour changes the way the virus spreads

You didn't say it, but that is exactly what will happen.

There will be peaks and troughs (when and how big will vary across the country) that is inevitable. If the peaks are within the capacity of healthcare then that's great -carry on chaps, however if the peaks impact too much on the NHS then they need to be managed or we will have to accept otherwise avoidable deaths
The game changer at the moment is the vaccination programme progressively protecting those most at risk from serious illness and death - beside reducing the human toll of Covid it will drastically take pressure of the NHS.

I agree.

I'm convinced live events and theatre will recover in time (there has been very strong demand for what theatre that has managed to run) but it will be slower than many other sectors and some bits (like festivals and big arena shows) will struggle more for survival than others. The corporate side of events will change though - I can see a lot less travel and a lot more online/hybrid events taking place and that bit of industry is adapting to that

"I know a secret that I can't tell you" is hardly a convincing argument.

It's not really a secret. If you had been watching the jobs market through the middle part of the year you may have noticed a lot of vacancies in a certain government department, in particular jobs around helping other people jobs.

 

[Domh245]

I have neighbours who appeared to not take the wearing of masks and distancing seriously. They are now that there was a hearse with a coffin in it parked down the street. The deceased was someone who we knew of, but not actually knew.

That's awfully presumptive of you. People die all the time, and for the last week of statistics published in England & Wales, about 78% of all those who died were not Covid related, let alone Covid actually being the cause of death

 

[Mag_seven]

Another reminder to posters that discussion on the subject of Working from Home should be made on this thread:

Covid-19 to have a permanent downward effect on commuting patterns with more partial working from home? | RailUK Forums (railforums.co.uk)

I've moved some posts that were discussing this issue over there.

Thanks

 

[brad465]

It's not really a secret. If you had been watching the jobs market through the middle part of the year you may have noticed a lot of vacancies in a certain government department, in particular jobs around helping other people jobs.

Do you mean "jobs helping other people find jobs"? Forgive me for being naïve but I'm guessing the department is work and pensions and/or HMRC.

 

[Bantamzen]

Do you mean "jobs helping other people find jobs"? Forgive me for being naïve but I'm guessing the department is work and pensions and/or HMRC.

Technically I can't say as I am not allowed to, but there is a possibility that your first guess may be closer to the mark...

 

[brad465]

Technically I can't say as I am not allowed to, but there is a possibility that your first guess may be closer to the mark...

Fair enough, creating jobs and getting unemployment down (and across a broad range of sectors) should be a Government priority, especially if a 1980s repeat is to be avoided (something they'll want to avoid).

Something else that's come to mind about ending restrictions: I mentioned before with Brexit being out of the way (ish) the backbenchers will focus more on Covid, in particular ending the restrictions, but what's just occurred to me is if, as expected, there's disruption while the new systems are being rolled in and other negative impacts are visible, then the backbenchers/CRG will use the Covid situation to try and distract from the former issue, by piling on pressure to remove restrictions and/or publish evidence they're effective/worth the cost.