When will restrictions finally end?

[bramling]

If 2 million vaccines per week are being given in another couple of weeks or so, then I don't see why we should be looking to Easter before things really improve. If it's going as well as hoped then about 7-8 million people should be vaccinated by the end of this month, make that about 15-16 million by the end of February. That along with those who already have immunity should see a big percentage of the people who are vulnerable protected by then, and so this should in turn see hospital admissions drop considerably which is the measure for restrictions. Really, if vaccination progresses as hoped then even by the end of this month the pressure should have eased quite a bit on the NHS, to the point where restrictions might start to be eased in February.

Easter is 3 months away, I don't know why there is this rhetoric by the media and by Johnson about things getting back to normal by then, it should be a progressive return to 'normal', starting imminently after vaccines start to have a positive effect on hospital admissions.

I think Easter is a natural break-point many people are looking towards for being able to restart leisure activities in an unrestricted way. January to March isn’t really a time for many people to be overly bothered about that sort of thing.

 

[Horizon22]

It's cold. Seems obvious enough to me! If you were going to wear a scarf or a mask that you're comfortable enough with you may as well do the latter.

This last week I've taken to wearing mine in the car on the way to work because I've been leaving home at 3am, it has been freezing while I chip ice off the car and driving a fairly basic vehicle it has hardly warmed up during my 25 minute drive.

My employer mandates face coverings in public areas so I have to wear it when I arrive anyway.

I also don't bother taking it off when popping in and out of the shop.

It's actually less itchy than a scarf and quite nice and cosy.

Different ballgame to a hot summer's day!

Indeed, I've noticed that whilst wearing my scarf, headphones, gloves and now my mask even after I'm off the train I don't take it off until I'm halfway home as its been around 0 degrees most days!

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

If 2 million vaccines per week are being given in another couple of weeks or so, then I don't see why we should be looking to Easter before things really improve. If it's going as well as hoped then about 7-8 million people should be vaccinated by the end of this month, make that about 15-16 million by the end of February. That along with those who already have immunity should see a big percentage of the people who are vulnerable protected by then, and so this should in turn see hospital admissions drop considerably which is the measure for restrictions. Really, if vaccination progresses as hoped then even by the end of this month the pressure should have eased quite a bit on the NHS, to the point where restrictions might start to be eased in February.

Easter is 3 months away, I don't know why there is this rhetoric by the media and by Johnson about things getting back to normal by then, it should be a progressive return to 'normal', starting imminently after vaccines start to have a positive effect on hospital admissions.

They've got 530k Oxford vaccines from Monday not the 4m Bingham forecast only in late November and they currently trying to ramp up to 2m/week by Feb and don't forget they are supplying this to many countries who are now following UKs approval with there own. There is more phizer vaccine coming as well but its clear they've maximised spacing to second dose as they are short of what they need. I doubt they will get to more than 5m by end of month but will push on faster through Feb to 12m. Given amount >80 year olds now vaccinated you would hope that admissions from this age group should start reducing.

Nothing is going to change before Easter unless MPs take back control of the tier legislation on 27th Jan. The tier rules should be incorporated in the regs so they applied equitable not as Hancock just sees fit. That said Johnson should have forecast that we should be able to begin slowly relaxing from Easter not this mirage that things will return to normal. Overplaying his hand again and its about time he was called out for it.

 

[yorksrob]

They've got 530k Oxford vaccines from Monday not the 4m Bingham forecast only in late November and they currently trying to ramp up to 2m/week by Feb and don't forget they are supplying this to many countries who are now following UKs approval with there own. There is more phizer vaccine coming as well but its clear they've maximised spacing to second dose as they are short of what they need. I doubt they will get to more than 5m by end of month but will push on faster through Feb to 12m. Given amount >80 year olds now vaccinated you would hope that admissions from this age group should start reducing.

Nothing is going to change before Easter unless MPs take back control of the tier legislation on 27th Jan. The tier rules should be incorporated in the regs so they applied equitable not as Hancock just sees fit. That said Johnson should have forecast that we should be able to begin slowly relaxing from Easter not this mirage that things will return to normal. Overplaying his hand again and its about time he was called out for it.

If they at least allow hospitality to get up and running, albeit with some restrictions as was the case in the summer, that should at least help the economy (and my ever decreasing sanity)

 

[Class 33]

To prolong the restrictions beyond April would be complete and utter madness. All that will happen is that the NHS and emergency services will start to get flooded with the rise in mental health and drug/alcohol misuse.

The Scientist have never at any stage throughout all this given any consideration to the other important issues that are the 'fallout' from the tier restrictions. Cancer treatment is another issue relegated to the subs bench.

CJ

Absolutely. But come Easter, I am feeling pretty confident now that all these darn lockdowns and restrictions will be finally gone. And it just can't come soon enough. Whilst things are still getting worst at the moment, there will come a turning point within the next 3 to 4 weeks when all the hospital admissions/numbers in hospitals/deaths will really start to come down. And easing of restrictions will start next month, towards what I expect will be a return to normal by Easter. There will be hardly anyone in hospital with Coronavirus, hardly any(or very very few at least) Coronavirus deaths. It will be high time then to move on from all these restrictions which are destroying thousands of businesses and effecting millions of people's mental health, and time to rebuild from all this and the recovery back to a normal life.

I expect over the coming weeks we'll still see headlines such as "Social distancing and face mask wearing must remain until at least the end of the year, SAGE warns" or even "Social distancing and face mask wearing restrictions must remain forever, SAGE warns". But hopefully Johnson will tell them where to go with that nonsense.

 

[Philip]

They've got 530k Oxford vaccines from Monday not the 4m Bingham forecast only in late November and they currently trying to ramp up to 2m/week by Feb and don't forget they are supplying this to many countries who are now following UKs approval with there own. There is more phizer vaccine coming as well but its clear they've maximised spacing to second dose as they are short of what they need. I doubt they will get to more than 5m by end of month but will push on faster through Feb to 12m. Given amount >80 year olds now vaccinated you would hope that admissions from this age group should start reducing.

Nothing is going to change before Easter unless MPs take back control of the tier legislation on 27th Jan. The tier rules should be incorporated in the regs so they applied equitable not as Hancock just sees fit. That said Johnson should have forecast that we should be able to begin slowly relaxing from Easter not this mirage that things will return to normal. Overplaying his hand again and its about time he was called out for it.

Quietly confident that most city regions (hopefully all) will be out of tier 4 by the middle of next month and that most will be no higher than tier 2 by the start of March. I'm expecting cases in London/South East to start to level off soon and come down since it was hit hard by the new strain and entered tier 4 earlier than the other regions. With that in mind and vaccination progress I wouldn't be at all surprised if London is allowed to have hospitality open again in 6 weeks. That is assuming the MPs vote to continue with the tier system.

 

[Scotrail314209]

I think one thing to help us get into normal life, is once we hit March/April, if it's low enough for the media to stop reporting cases and death rates, as well as Nicola Sturgeon stopping her daily broadcasts. They do nothing except provide more doom and gloom.

We need to stop hearing about daily cases around March/April if we want to expect a sense of normality to begin. No more essential travel only. No more protect the NHS.

 

[yorksrob]

I think one thing to help us get into normal life, is once we hit March/April, if it's low enough for the media to stop reporting cases and death rates, as well as Nicola Sturgeon stopping her daily broadcasts. They do nothing except provide more doom and gloom.

We need to stop hearing about daily cases around March/April if we want to expect a sense of normality to begin. No more essential travel only. No more protect the NHS.

Indeed. The point will eventually need to be made that the "Protect the NHS" strapline will be damaging the NHS, because it will distract from the increases in capacity (to peer group country levels of beds, staff etc) that would genuinely protect the NHS.

 

[43096]

The BBC news article said that the hope is to give 2 million per week soon after the Oxford one is rolled out.

Best hope the same idiots who rolled out the test & trace system aren't in charge of the logistics of vaccine delivery!

If you hear the phrase "world beating" said bout vaccine delivery, you'd be right to be worried.

 

[al78]

Whilst the rules state no travel into or out of a tier 4 area, I did manage to get home from my father's place (who I am bubbled with) in Salford in near record time today, and without being stopped to enquire why I am not imprisoned in my home. We should have these lockdowns more often, so much nicer spending four hours fifteen minutes on the road than six and a half hours for the same journey.





Just kidding.

 

[philjo]

It will require a few months of data to establish the effectiveness of the vaccinations on transmission as well as on the number of hospital admissions etc. Though many restrictions are likely to be relaxed at some point in the spring I suspect there will be a requirement for some degree of social distancing for most of 2021 or possibly beyond that. The big test will be next autumn when the weather cools down again.
Alternatively confirmation of a negative test and /or vaccination may be required for admission to certain events.

 

[Huntergreed]

It will require a few months of data to establish the effectiveness of the vaccinations on transmission as well as on the number of hospital admissions etc. Though many restrictions are likely to be relaxed at some point in the spring I suspect there will be a requirement for some degree of social distancing for most of 2021 or possibly beyond that. The big test will be next autumn when the weather cools down again.
Alternatively confirmation of a negative test and /or vaccination may be required for admission to certain events.

Distancing into 2022? Seriously?

The vaccine is getting rolled out to the vulnerable as of Monday, this should drastically decrease hospital admissions, especially with this new strategy of vaccination!

As soon as the risk of hospitals being overwhelmed without distancing restrictions is mitigated through vaccination, all restrictions will be dropped. Some may, of course, choose to distance for longer, but this will not be mandated.

To suggest otherwise is illogical. Remember, even the government want rid of these restrictions ASAP. As soon as they can open the economy without risking the hospitals being overwhelmed, they will want to do this, it’s in the national interest, and in the interest of them keeping a job.

 

[chris11256]

Exactly. Once the risk of hospitals of being overwhelmed has gone, restrictions or 'non pharmaceutical interventions' will soon follow. As has been mentioned earlier, it wouldn't surprise me if we had an announcement of the plan to ease majority of restrictions on the anniversary of the 1st lockdown.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

One thing I don’t understand about the focus on new ‘cases’ (based on positive tests) is that COVID-19 was made a Notifiable Disease on 5th March 2020 https://www.gov.uk/government/news/coronavirus-covid-19-listed-as-a-notifiable-disease
This requires GPs to report all cases of COVID-19 to Public Health England.

Yet when you look at the NOIDS statistics for, as an example, Week 51 (w/e 20 December 2020)

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/947077/NOIDS-weekly-report-week51-2020.pdf

on page 14 of that document, amongst others, the actual recorded Notifications are as follows

Acute infectious hepatitis 6
Campylobacterlodis 52
Salmonellosis 7
E.coli infection VTEC 1
Covid-19 50

Can anyone explain how so few cases are notified via GPs?

 

[brad465]

Exactly. Once the risk of hospitals of being overwhelmed has gone, restrictions or 'non pharmaceutical interventions' will soon follow. As has been mentioned earlier, it wouldn't surprise me if we had an announcement of the plan to ease majority of restrictions on the anniversary of the 1st lockdown.

I'd like to think such a plan would be announced before that anniversary, but that large easements would take effect from the first anniversary, especially if there is a visibly improved/improving picture by the beginning of March.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

Can anyone explain how so few cases are notified via GPs?

Are not most surgeries telling people who have the coronavirus symptoms to not turn up at the surgery ( assuming it's even open and not simply doing everything remotely! ) but instead to report to a testing centre?

 

[bramling]

Are not most surgeries telling people who have the coronavirus symptoms to not turn up at the surgery ( assuming it's even open and not simply doing everything remotely! ) but instead to report to a testing centre?

Round here GP surgeries have become a bit of a joke. You phone up and there’s an automatic system which essentially does it’s best to get rid of you. It’s either call 111, go to A&E, or wait to speak to someone who might let you book a time slot to speak to a doctor. If one decides to wait for the latter it then goes into a queue which doesn’t get answered.

 

[Cowley]

Round here GP surgeries have become a bit of a joke. You phone up and there’s an automatic system which essentially does it’s best to get rid of you. It’s either call 111, go to A&E, or wait to speak to someone who might let you book a time slot to speak to a doctor. If one decides to wait for the latter it then goes into a queue which doesn’t get answered.

I had a very similar experience trying to get a dentists appointment for my daughter the other day.
Basically an hour queuing on the phone to get something done that should have been totally straight forward. If I ran my business like that I’d go bust within two months.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Round here GP surgeries have become a bit of a joke. You phone up and there’s an automatic system which essentially does it’s best to get rid of you. It’s either call 111, go to A&E, or wait to speak to someone who might let you book a time slot to speak to a doctor. If one decides to wait for the latter it then goes into a queue which doesn’t get answered.

I don't think that beats my GP surgery!

I called at 8am sharp a few weeks ago asking to see a doctor, after passing the pre-recorded garbage I was told that I would receive a telephone consultation and that way they would assess whether I actually required an in-person consultation. It took until 3.30pm for a phone call from the "nurse practitioner", not a doctor.

A week or so later I went to collect a prescription from the surgery at 2pm, I was told to come back at 5pm because "we don't give them out until between 5 and 6 to reduce unnecessary contact". The pharmacy is literally 100 meters away from the doctors' surgery - I don't understand why they can't hand all the prescriptions in themselves.

 

[Crossover]

I had a very similar experience trying to get a dentists appointment for my daughter the other day.
Basically an hour queuing on the phone to get something done that should have been totally straight forward. If I ran my business like that I’d go bust within two months.

Thankfully our dentist hasn’t been that bad. Lots of pre-recorded stuff but quickly through to a human. Check ups are straightforward to book once one has passed a set of COVID screening questions. Appointments for other stuff are more involved though, as I found out as it went something like - phone through as per above including answering screening questions, give symptoms etc which are noted. The triage dentist for the day calls back to verify the details and make their assessment. a receptionist later calls you to book an appointment for assessment in person (and if anything needs doing it’ll be another follow up appointment, unless it’s really simple and doesn’t require additional PPE)

I’ve not had the misfortune to have needed a doctors appointment so don’t know how ours are working currently

 

[duncanp]

A week or so later I went to collect a prescription from the surgery at 2pm, I was told to come back at 5pm because "we don't give them out until between 5 and 6 to reduce unnecessary contact". The pharmacy is literally 100 meters away from the doctors' surgery - I don't understand why they can't hand all the prescriptions in themselves.

That would be common sense, which seems to be in short supply.

At my GP surgery, I can order repeat prescriptions online, and have it sent electronically to a pharmacy of my choice, which isn't necessarily the one nearest the surgery. I can check on the website to see whether the prescription has been issued, and then go to the pharmacy when it suits me.

Giving out the prescriptions in a one hour window between 5 and 6pm means that everyone has to come between those times, which leads to more queues at the GP surgery and pharmacy, and if anything increases the risk of contact between people of different households.

Some of the things that are being done "because of COVID" are truly bizzare.

 

[Scotrail314209]

Some of the things that are being done "because of COVID" are truly bizzare.

It's like London Underground shutting entrances due to COVID. Surely if you wanted distancing you'd have as many entrances open as possible?

 

[Mintona]

I can’t imagine life back to normal until spring 2022. Something will happen that prevents any major easing of restrictions this summer. And then it’ll be winter and we’ll be protecting the NHS once more. April 2022 is my guess.

 

[C J Snarzell]

I think one thing to help us get into normal life, is once we hit March/April, if it's low enough for the media to stop reporting cases and death rates, as well as Nicola Sturgeon stopping her daily broadcasts. They do nothing except provide more doom and gloom.

We need to stop hearing about daily cases around March/April if we want to expect a sense of normality to begin. No more essential travel only. No more protect the NHS.

It would probably help if they fired off some of the reporters who are constantly poking the hornets nest.

I'd love to see the back of Kuenssberg and Peston for a while - maybe send them off on a sabbatical once this chaos simmers down.

I'm hoping we don't have to be inflicted with Kay Burley again come the summer - another one with too much ego and double standards.

CJ

 

[Scotrail314209]

One thing I am glad to see the back of is Glasgow Central’s bouncers social distancing monitors or whatever they are

They did absolutely nothing but wear a pink hi vis, mill about the entrances and bark at you to wear your mask if you hadn’t yet donned it. They even yelled if you were visibly in the process of putting it on...

 

[Bantamzen]

I can’t imagine life back to normal until spring 2022. Something will happen that prevents any major easing of restrictions this summer. And then it’ll be winter and we’ll be protecting the NHS once more. April 2022 is my guess.

If it takes that long there will be no normality, the effect that would have on the economy & on people's lives would be devastating.

 

[_toommm_]

One thing I am glad to see the back of is Glasgow Central’s bouncers social distancing monitors or whatever they are

They did absolutely nothing but wear a pink hi vis, mill about the entrances and bark at you to wear your mask if you hadn’t yet donned it. They even yelled if you were visibly in the process of putting it on...

Do you know if they’re gone at all stations? I’ve not seen them at Leeds this morning, and I’ll be glad to see the back of them too.

 

[Scotrail314209]

Do you know if they’re gone at all stations? I’ve not seen them at Leeds this morning, and I’ll be glad to see the back of them too.

Im not sure. I’ve only went through Glasgow Central recently, but it’s likely NR have pulled them and good riddance too.

 

[ChrisC]

I can’t imagine life back to normal until spring 2022. Something will happen that prevents any major easing of restrictions this summer. And then it’ll be winter and we’ll be protecting the NHS once more. April 2022 is my guess.

I would certainly hope it’s not that long, but do we really know?
When all this began last March I was thinking the worst of it would be over by about May or June. That didn’t happen and then I was expecting by September, then November, then Christmas. Up until a few days ago, with the roll out of the vaccine, I was thinking that the worst of the restrictions should be over by Easter.

Now, unfortunately I’m not so sure again. The news, if we are to believe it, these last few days has been quite depressing. If what is being reported as happening with the new variant in London and the South East spreads to other highly populated areas in the Midlands and the North, there’s no knowing what restrictions this government will impose next and for how long. Latest news reports also are not very positive about the smoothness of the roll out of the vaccine. I certainly haven’t heard of anyone that I know in their 80’s or 90’s here in Nottinghamshire who have been vaccinated yet.

 

[Class 33]

If it takes that long there will be no normality, the effect that would have on the economy & on people's lives would be devastating.

Indeed so. There would be many many more thousands businesses that would have gone under and unable to return. There would be millions more unemployed. There would be a mental health crisis of absolutely biblical proportions. And there could even be suicides of absolutely biblical proportions. Many people just wouldn't be able to take all this stupid nonsense dragging on for another year or so with no end in sight. As someone who amongst many many others, whose mental health has suffered as a result of all this dragging on for over 9 months so far, what's keeping me going now is the confidence that all this will soon be over in a few months and a return to normal life again. And it just can't come soon enough.

With these vaccinations being ramped up now, the Coronavirus hospital admissions, the numbers in hospital and deaths will soon be very very low. And there will be absolutely no justification atall for all these restrictions to remain. They won't be able to drag this into the summer and then say "We've got the Winter cold/flu season coming up so we must keep these restrictions." and then when it gets to the start of Winter they won't be able to say "We've got January and February coming up, which is always the busiest period for the NHS, therefore we must still keep these restrictions going." and dragging all this into at least Spring 2022! Nope, it just can't happen as there just wouldn't be much left of the country if it did.

Of course those who want "The new normal" to remain forever along with social distancing/socially distanced(god I absolutely detest those two terms!) and face mask wearing, can do so on their own if they so wish. The vast majority want to bin all that nonsense, and get back to a normal life again.