When will Scotland return to some sort of normal?

[takno]

Yes just lock down the whole Central Belt excluding Falkirk.

Central belt west of Falkirk would be more in keeping with the stats. Overall I'd be more supportive of locking down Bute House and just telling Sturgeon that we're all staying in too.

 

[Huntergreed]

I do think a faster move to a state closer to normality is needed for regions with very low to negligible infection rates like my one.

A more local approach to lockdown is needed sooner rather than later, as this would allow the economy to bounce back more quickly, as well as depleting the infection rates in the regions which require it. The safety measures in my region are completely overkill for the infection rate and I think, for the sake of the economy and mental health; we really ought to move to a more localised approach as soon as possible.

 

[leightonbd]

Having earlier bemoaned the absence of real data on Scotland, I found this publication which has some interesting analysis:

Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no 3)

Report presents the latest findings of the Scottish Government in modelling the Covid-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement

www.gov.scot

This is essentially the SG’s attempt to model, Imperial College style. Two particularly interesting points:
- it estimates the actual numbers of people in Scotland who are infectious at this time - figure given is 11,500 as of 29 May, estimated to decline to 9,500 by 5 June. That is roughly 1 in 500 people (if pop is 5m).
- also it has analysis which supports the R figures published by SG (indicated yesterday as 0.7 to 0.9).

Whilst one might challenge the analysis (eg what raw data is it actually based on) it’s good to see something more substantial than what the politicians come out with. As an aside the ONS work for England is really interesting too: that estimates the number of infectious people at 53,000 - about 1 in 1000 or half the incidence in Scotland. (But is the analysis like for like?).

 

[scotrail158713]

Having earlier bemoaned the absence of real data on Scotland, I found this publication which has some interesting analysis:

Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no 3)

Report presents the latest findings of the Scottish Government in modelling the Covid-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement

www.gov.scot

This is essentially the SG’s attempt to model, Imperial College style. Two particularly interesting points:
- it estimates the actual numbers of people in Scotland who are infectious at this time - figure given is 11,500 as of 29 May, estimated to decline to 9,500 by 5 June. That is roughly 1 in 500 people (if pop is 5m).
- also it has analysis which supports the R figures published by SG (indicated yesterday as 0.7 to 0.9).

Whilst one might challenge the analysis (eg what raw data is it actually based on) it’s good to see something more substantial than what the politicians come out with. As an aside the ONS work for England is really interesting too: that estimates the number of infectious people at 53,000 - about 1 in 1000 or half the incidence in Scotland. (But is the analysis like for like?).

Thanks for posting that. I find it more useful to see the numbers just within Scotland for a change, instead of UK wide ones.

 

[oldman]

The ONS England figure of 53K infectious people is for private households, so excluding care homes and hospitals. Presumably the total figure, comparable to the SG Scotland 11.5K, is higher, but with the 10:1 population ratio, it should be. The figures for R (all produced by Sage) seem to be the same for England and Scotland.

 

[scotrail158713]

Surely Nicola Sturgeon needs to realise what’s happening now? Yes it’s the weekend, so numbers are lower, but we have now reached 0 deaths in the last 24 hours.

Coronavirus: No new Covid deaths in 24 hours in Scotland

But Health Secretary Jeane Freeman urges caution and warns further deaths are "still likely".

www.bbc.co.uk

No new deaths to coronavirus have been registered in Scotland in the past 24 hours for the first time since the early days of the pandemic.

Health Secretary Jeane Freeman cautioned that fewer deaths were recorded at weekends, and warned further deaths were "still likely".

Latest Scottish government figures show 15,621 people have tested positive for Covid-19.

This was an increase of 18 from Saturday.

Because no additional people who tested positive have died, the total number of deaths in Scotland by this measure has remained at 2,415.

There has been no change in the numbers of people in hospital with a confirmed case - 646, with 16 being treated in intensive care. A further nine people were in intensive care with suspected Covid-19.

Since 5 March, 3,801 people have been discharged from hospital after receiving treatment for the virus.

Speaking at the government's coronavirus briefing, Ms Freeman said zero deaths in 24 hours was "one piece of positive news", but urged people not to read too much into the figure and to continue to abide by lockdown restrictions.

She said Scotland had made progress, but that the progress was "fragile".

Ms Freeman said: "We are not in the business of rushing out announcements on the back of albeit a piece of positive news, but a one-off piece of positive news in the context of the weekend when we know the number of registered deaths are lower than in a week day.

"I want to be here on many more days where either I or the first minister are giving those kinds of numbers, but for us to get there we need to stick with the measures that are in place."

Ms Freeman said the numbers she read out were not "simply statistics".

She said: "Every one of those 2,415 people who have died was an individual whose loss is a source of grief and sorrow to very many.

"So I want to send my deepest condolences to everyone who has lost a loved one."

 

[nlogax]

Surely Nicola Sturgeon needs to realise what’s happening now? Yes it’s the weekend, so numbers are lower, but we have now reached 0 deaths in the last 24 hours.

Coronavirus: No new Covid deaths in 24 hours in Scotland

But Health Secretary Jeane Freeman urges caution and warns further deaths are "still likely".

www.bbc.co.uk

A few more days of consistent zeroes and then phase two should start asap.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

My guess is there'll be an announcement later this week, with us moving to phase 2 around the 22nd June (with an official announcement made on 18th June, when the 3-weekly review takes place).

 

[scotrail158713]

A few more days of consistent zeroes and then phase two should start asap.

Professor Jason Leitch was on Off the Ball on BBC Radio Scotland yesterday saying the next review is June 18th which is when any changes would occur. If this trend continues until then, then yes, I’d say we’ll move to phase two then.

 

[Jamesrob637]

A few more days of consistent zeroes and then phase two should start asap.

Scotland has around the same population as some Eastern European countries, doesn't it? They've reported no deaths at the weekend and only single figures even on Tuesdays.

 

[Huntergreed]

I see her tweet was:

We can’t read too much into a single day’s figures - and we know registration of deaths are relatively low at weekends - but nevertheless this is a headline we’ve all longed to see.

She seems to realise what it means, hopefully a move to phase 2 in mid June, however if the protests have caused a spike in infections, we’ll likely be delayed by 2/3 weeks. I do note however that the 5 mile local restriction seems to still apply in phase 2, which is disappointing and could make it much harder for some industries to reopen.

 

[takno]

Scotland has around the same population as some Eastern European countries, doesn't it? They've reported no deaths at the weekend and only single figures even on Tuesdays.

That's entirely possible. Without knowing which countries you mean it would be difficult to really say whether you are correct about the numbers, or whether that tells us anything at all about Scotland's coronavirus response.

 

[Jamesrob637]

That's entirely possible. Without knowing which countries you mean it would be difficult to really say whether you are correct about the numbers, or whether that tells us anything at all about Scotland's coronavirus response.

Almost exactly the same as Slovakia and Finland, and a shade lower than Denmark.

 

[takno]

Almost exactly the same as Slovakia and Finland, and a shade lower than Denmark.

Tough to guess 2 Scandinavian countries and a central European one from the Eastern European description. Aside from similarities in population there is very little in common between these countries and Scotland.

Finland and Slovakia sealed off before they had any significant numbers of cases at all, and Denmark locked down quite hard and quite early. In all circumstances they didn't seed nursing homes full of the most vulnerable people with patients who had the disease.

We didn't lock down early, although it's debatable how important that is since our standing as one of the worst-affected counties has been driven by the horrific mistakes around nursing homes. It's pretty much impossible to draw too many lessons about what we do next from countries which have followed completely different policies from the start.

 

[Huntergreed]

Scotland just extended shielding until 31st July. I would assume this would be the date that they are currently planning to move into “Phase 3” of their exit strategy, which is essentially more businesses open, full public transport capacity (without a limit on travel distance) and being allowed to meet in larger groups, but with enforced 2m distancing.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Also of note is that Nicola Sturgeon is hopeful that Scotland can move to Phase 2 on June 18th.

 

[Huntergreed]

Also of note is that Nicola Sturgeon is hopeful that Scotland can move to Phase 2 on June 18th.

Although she did emphasise that she said it might need to be “partial” rather than a complete move to phase 2, which sounds like she’s hopeful but not overly confident

 

[scotrail158713]

Although she did emphasise that she said it might need to be “partial” rather than a complete move to phase 2, which sounds like she’s hopeful but not overly confident

You know what, I’ll still take that. It’s better than the current situation.

 

[Jordan Adam]

Could be a need for increases pretty soon since it's possible that we could be into Phase 2 next Friday. Going from the app today there seemed to be more buses running late or full so I don't think people will want it to take any longer than that

I doubt we'll see increases until the end of the month or early July. There's no funding to support an enhanced level of service at the moment.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

I doubt we'll see increases until the end of the month or early July. There's no funding to support an enhanced level of service at the moment.

Unless, of course, funding is announced this week effective from June 18th. A bit too late anyway as some companies have furloughed staff until the end of June, and AFAIK they can't take drivers off mid-furlough until the flexi-furlough scheme comes into effect next month.

 

[Jordan Adam]

Unless, of course, funding is announced this week effective from June 18th. A bit too late anyway as some companies have furloughed staff until the end of June, and AFAIK they can't take drivers off mid-furlough until the flexi-furlough scheme comes into effect next month.

Indeed. Plus in many areas capacity isn't too much of an issue at the moment.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Indeed. Plus in many areas capacity isn't too much of an issue at the moment.

That could change come June 18th when, potentially, "indoor non-office based workplaces" can return, and pubs/restaurants with outdoor areas and outdoor markets will be able reopen.

 

[overthewater]

I thnk she will try and push for Monday 22nd June but make clear she would rather see people work from home if they could. Big Question is will people go to the shops? If not then why increase the bus service.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Posted quoted from here. (Mods: If there's a more topical thread for this feel free to move this post)

I thnk she will try and push for Monday 22nd June but make clear she would rather see people work from home if they could. Big Question is will people go to the shops? If not then why increase the bus service.

Because there will be more people returning to work, although not as many as have returned in England, mind you.

There is demand right now for service increases in certain areas (Xplore Dundee for one, and some Stagecoch Fife express services), but operators are reluctant to do so until funding is released from the Government.

 

[JumpinTrainz]

I thnk she will try and push for Monday 22nd June but make clear she would rather see people work from home if they could. Big Question is will people go to the shops? If not then why increase the bus service.

People couldn’t keep away from beaches and as an example were heading to Luss in numbers after the slightest bit of lockdown was lifted. I can’t imagine the vast majority of people will stay in doors all that much longer. Working from home sounds good but it’s not practical for everyone so people will eventually need to travel to work and if you don’t have a car that means public transport. As lockdown is lifted bit by bit expect the buses to get busier - I mean as a driver the roads are already busier.

 

[PaulMc7]

People couldn’t keep away from beaches and as an example were heading to Luss in numbers after the slightest bit of lockdown was lifted. I can’t imagine the vast majority of people will stay in doors all that much longer. Working from home sounds good but it’s not practical for everyone so people will eventually need to travel to work and if you don’t have a car that means public transport. As lockdown is lifted bit by bit expect the buses to get busier - I mean as a driver the roads are already busier.

Fully agree with this. Even last Saturday the roads seemed a lot busier plus my girlfriend has mentioned it being busier when she drives to work. I think it's too distracting working from home for a lot of people so I think a lot will jump at the very first chance to get back to work where possible plus it certainly seems like bosses will want people in sooner rather than later

 

[Scrotnig]

You know what, I’ll still take that. It’s better than the current situation.

That's what they want. You'll be eternally grateful for every tiny little bit of freedom they allow you to have, yet just a few months ago it was taken for granted.

Don't think they will give up this level of control easily.

 

[BJames]

That's what they want. You'll be eternally grateful for every tiny little bit of freedom they allow you to have, yet just a few months ago it was taken for granted.

Don't think they will give up this level of control easily.

I wouldn't be so cynical. Just 12 hours ago Jacinda Ardern (New Zealand PM) completely lifted all restrictions except those at the border and the country is operating as close to pre-pandemic as possible. Sturgeon will have no choice but to start releasing restrictions, probably sooner than she wants to. 2 days of no covid deaths? Will be increasingly difficult to justify why everyone's being kept in such close quarters. And before anyone says that's what New Zealand did, we are far, far past that stage now and we have shown that the economy can't continue to take these kind of hits.

 

[route101]

The Non essential shops arent planning to open in Scotland next week , still quiet for a few weeks . Im hopeful of getting away once the hotels open. Reckon it would be a few weeks of sustained low numbers of deaths and infections before any restrictions are loosened faster.

 

[Huntergreed]

Just a subtle note, but I do notice Sturgeon often refers to the daily deaths when answering questions as to patients dying “from” or “of” Covid. Is it possible that they’re basing their judgements around all deaths with Covid on the certificate are caused purely by the virus, if so this is very worrying.