Where did it all go wrong for The Liberal Democrats ?

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Take my hat off to you on this one - sounds like a big protest vote judging by the change around

HS2 runs through this constituency and there was also a great deal of disquiet felt over the proposed change to planning to increase housebuilding.

Its not often you see Labour finish fourth with only 622 votes.

 

[Butts]

Its not often you see Labour finish fourth with only 622 votes.

Don't you mean not often enough ?

 

[daodao]

The Blue wall has increasing cracks in it - but if anyone can ride two horses facing in completely different directions its Johnson

The Lie Dems are notorious for being 2-faced, which has helped them win this by-election.

They promise one thing (e.g. no university tuition fees), but do the opposite.

Their intention before the last GE to reverse the valid Brexit vote without a 2nd vote was anti-democratic.

 

[deltic]

The Lie Dems are notorious for being 2-faced, which has helped them win this by-election.

They promise one thing (e.g. no university tuition fees), but do the opposite.

Their intention before the last GE to reverse the valid Brexit vote without a 2nd vote was anti-democratic.

You mean they are like the other parties

Each of the main parties broke manifesto promises on tuition fees starting with Labour in 1997 but the only one anyone remembers is the Lib Dems

While I didnt agree with the hubris and policy in the run up to the 2017 GE, the UK system is if you win a GE and its in your manifesto than its perfectly democratic to introduce your policies and overturn previous decisions. Its what we have been doing since universal sufferage and is not anti-democratic under our first past the post system. Its our voting system that is undemocratic - you win 10% of the vote and end up with 2% of the seats

 

[simonw]

Their intention before the last GE to reverse the valid Brexit vote without a 2nd vote was anti-democratic.

They stood on an antibrexit ticket. If a majority of people had voted for them (which clearly they didn't) that would have been a clear second vote against Brexit. Hardly undemocratic, but as it turned out, they didn't win a clear majority.

 

[MikeWh]

Its not often you see Labour finish fourth with only 622 votes.

Don't you mean not often enough ?

Many Labour and Green voters used their votes tactically to get the Tories out.

They promise one thing (e.g. no university tuition fees), but do the opposite.

The promise was based on them being the sole party in government. When in coalition you have to compromise, especially when you are the junior partner.

Their intention before the last GE to reverse the valid Brexit vote without a 2nd vote was anti-democratic.

No, again this was based on them being the sole party in government. If that had happened then it would have been very democratic. Which is more than can be said for the original brexit vote.

 

[507021]

Don't you mean not often enough ?

The irony. You were goading Lib Dem supporters and now their party has taken one of your party's seats.

 

[nlogax]

So.. is this a one-off or part of a potential new trend in by-elections? From this perspective it looks like a very well organised local protest vote that the Tories will overturn at the next general election.

 

[Typhoon]

Many Labour and Green voters used their votes tactically to get the Tories out.

As far as Labour goes, the Conservatives losing a seat with a 16,000 majority will live much longer in the day than them only polling 622 votes in a seat where Blair at his most persuasive was never likely to win. By putting forward a candidate they also knocked on the head any opportunity that the Conservatives might have had for labeling it a 'left wing' coalition.

I have been trying to work out that constituency the area came in for the EU Referendum, if it is Chiltern, they were pretty solid 'Remain', others in the area were 'knife-edge' so it may be that what has counted against them elsewhere, counted for nothing here.

Edit: response to posting above

So.. is this a one-off or part of a potential new trend in by-elections? From this perspective it looks like a very well organised local protest vote that the Tories will overturn at the next general election.

Oh, probably. The successful candidate has her work cut out. But it may mean that some on the government benches start to think about how some of their policies are running roughshod over the voices of their constituents. The government's majority is pretty secure for some time to come, but that of individual members is not.

 

[ainsworth74]

Do I need to change the thread title to: "Did it all go wrong for The Liberal Democrats?"

 

[nlogax]

Do I need to change the thread title to: "Did it all go wrong for The Liberal Democrats?"

Or maybe "Where did it get slightly better for a little while at least, though let's not consider this a long term thing because quite frankly everyone still remembers the coalition?"

 

[deltic]

So.. is this a one-off or part of a potential new trend in by-elections? From this perspective it looks like a very well organised local protest vote that the Tories will overturn at the next general election.

The Lib Dems probably hold on to about 50% of their by-election gains - often depends on the time gap between the by-election and GE. The Lib Dems tend to be better constituency focused than other parties.

 

[nlogax]

The Lib Dems tend to be better constituency focused than other parties.

Can certainly attest to that. My local MP is Ed Davey and he's been a mainstay of this corner of London for years and years, even during the post-coalition blip when he was briefly unseated by a Conservative. Very active in the community and even with his relatively new role as leader of the LDs he's visible and active here.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

So.. is this a one-off or part of a potential new trend in by-elections? From this perspective it looks like a very well organised local protest vote that the Tories will overturn at the next general election.

I think it's a potential new trend - but a very regional one. It was a breathtaking result - an absolutely massive swing - but in a part of the country where there were already pointers to that, even at the last election: The two LibDem gains from the Tories in 2019 were St Albans and Richmond Park - both seats that, like Chesham and Amersham, are relatively prosperous London commuter-belt Remain-leaning seats. And there were a fair few other seats in that part of the country where the LibDems ran the Tories quite close, despite the LibDems' poor performance nationally.

So my reading of it would be: Certainly, in part, a reflection of the LibDems' ability to take advantage of by-elections and local issues; but also an indication that, having lost their previous heartland in the West Country, the LibDems steadily seem to be building a new regional heartland in the NW/SW London commuter belt. My money is going to be on the LibDems holding Chesham and Amersham at the next general election.

One thing that doesn't work in the LibDems' favour - by-elections are a lot rarer these days than they were back in the 1980s and 1990s. The three by-elections within the space of a few months that we're currently seeing is quite unusual.

 

[zuriblue]

Johnson and Gove told these Tory voters in the EUref there'd be no change to their FoM rights (just Johnny Foreigner's). No party wants to mention the B word but its the Tories who most want to talk about anything else (statues, GB News ad boycotts, something a bit racist etc.). Still speculation as to how deep a Brexit backlash is damaging the Tories but I'd have a punt that it is.

 

[nlogax]

So my reading of it would be: Certainly, in part, a reflection of the LibDems' ability to take advantage of by-elections and local issues; but also an indication that, having lost their previous heartland in the West Country, the LibDems steadily seem to be building a new regional heartland in the NW/SW London commuter belt. My money is going to be on the LibDems holding Chesham and Amersham at the next general election.

Appreciate your thoughts there. A LD hold wouldn't surprise me as much as it may have done a couple of years ago, however I do question if there's really a heartland forming between Chesham & Amersham and the various LD constituencies in S / SW London. Guess we shall see in coming years!

 

[daodao]

The three by-elections within the space of a few months that we're currently seeing is quite unusual.

There are scheduled to be 4 Westminster by-elections in the period 1/5/21-1/7/21.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

There are scheduled to be 4 Westminster by-elections in the period 1/5/21-1/7/21.

Interesting. We've had Hartlepool, and Chesham/Amersham. We have Batley coming up. What's the 4th one?

 

[Gloster]

That the LibDems win a seat from the government in a by-election in a seat where there is a major local issue is not really a surprise and, in itself, probably won’t worry the Conservatives much. What might worry them a bit is the way that supporters of other parties abandoned their usual allegiances and voted for the party most likely to defeat the Tories. (That is how I interpret the various shares of the vote.)

Interesting. We've had Hartlepool, and Chesham/Amersham. We have Batley coming up. What's the 4th one?

Airdrie and Shotts on 13 May: SNP hold.

 

[birchesgreen]

That the LibDems win a seat from the government in a by-election in a seat where there is a major local issue is not really a surprise and, in itself, probably won’t worry the Conservatives much. What might worry them a bit is the way that supporters of other parties abandoned their usual allegiances and voted for the party most likely to defeat the Tories. (That is how I interpret the various shares of the vote.)

One thing which might worry the Conservatives is what some people said on the doorstep about being ignored, the Tories being only interested elsewhere et cetera. Just the kind of things Labour used to hear in it's heartlands before seats started to flip in bigger numbers.

 

[Busaholic]

HS2 runs through this constituency and there was also a great deal of disquiet felt over the proposed change to planning to increase housebuilding.

Its not often you see Labour finish fourth with only 622 votes.

Labour had their worst ever by-election result in percentage terms, but absolutely nothing can be read into that, with virtually all anti-Tory votes going to the Lib Dem candidate. I'd compare it to the Orpington by-election result from 1964, which I remember well.

 

[Typhoon]

Labour had their worst ever by-election result in percentage terms, but absolutely nothing can be read into that, with virtually all anti-Tory votes going to the Lib Dem candidate. I'd compare it to the Orpington by-election result from 1964, which I remember well.

The Liberals dined on that for years. (Incidentally, it was 1962, possibly one of the first signs that SuperMac - MacMillan - had lost his grip, almost 60 years ago; Lubbock, the victorious candidate, was reelected in 1964, though). If they can go back to their campaigning policies of that time, then there is a chance of a recovery. I was interested that Sarah Green (LibDem candidate) campaigned not only on HS2 (pretty much following the Cheryl Gillen line) but more prominently against reduction of police services in Amersham, flooding in an underpass in Chesham, and charges for taking stuff to the tip. In each case the target is a Tory institution (council, PCC) and affects voters directly. That's what brings them round, not the resident's survey put forward by her opponent. If I remember rightly, the other thing the Liberals did at the time is put a lot of energy into the constituencies they thought they could win, but much less where they didn't think they could, so not spreading themselves too thinly. That might be helpful for them now, it would be tempting to do full on at the next by-elections but poor defeats for much effort don't help morale.

 

[dm1]

I think what some people at perhaps missing or underestimating, is that the LibDems were campaigning extremely actively.

Chesham and Amersham has been such a safe seat for so long, that during normal elections all of the parties focus their resources elsewhere, and beyond a few minor leaflet drops (mainly the free ones) there is normally no campaign to speak of whatsoever.

In this by-election on the other hand, for the first time in literally decades, there was an actual campaign with extremely active canvassing going on, especially from the LibDems

The tories appear to have realised this a little late, and their campaigning was much less effective in comparison. But the fact that so many voters were doorstepped by the LibDems (I think they claim to have spoken to half of the electorate), and engaged in a political conversation in many cases for the first time, had a huge impact on the final result.

Many, who had voted for the tories by inertia for decades were persuaded to reconsider through these conversations. Likewise those that had previously voted Labour, having seen the basically non-existent Labour campaign, could be persuaded that only the LibDems had a chance of winning.

The lib dems achieved this by engaging their activists from all over the country, since they did not have their own campaigns to deal with. The big question now, is whether the inertia from this election will be enough to allow the LibDems to hold the seat at the next General election, where resources will be spread more thinly.

On the other hand, given the LibDems have now managed to win it, they will invest significantly more resources into holding it in future - and the tories will invest resources into trying to win it back, meaning the days of nobody bothering to really campaign are gone for at least a few election cycles to come.

 

[eMeS]

I too can't remember when I last had anyone on my doorstep asking for my vote.

 

[simonw]

Labour had their worst ever by-election result in percentage terms, but absolutely nothing can be read into that, with virtually all anti-Tory votes going to the Lib Dem candidate. I'd compare it to the Orpington by-election result from 1964, which I remember well.

Didn't know there was one in 1964.... The famous one was in 1962

 

[daodao]

Didn't know there was one in 1964.... The famous one was in 1962

The background of the Tory candidate (Peter Goldman) at the Orpington bye-election in 1962 contributed to the Liberal success. There was reportedly a distinct whiff of anti-semitism in both the local electorate and the Liberal campaign.

 

[Butts]

Do I need to change the thread title to: "Did it all go wrong for The Liberal Democrats?"

No, look at their results in The Senedd and Scottish Parliament in May.

I keep saying we need Lembit Opik back

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I keep saying we need Lembit Opik back

That now looks unlikely: Lembit Opik has recently been expelled from the LibDems after speaking at a Conservative event called "How to Stop the Lib Dems"!

 

[Typhoon]

The background of the Tory candidate (Peter Goldman) at the Orpington bye-election in 1962 contributed to the Liberal success. There was reportedly a distinct whiff of anti-semitism in both the local electorate and the Liberal campaign.

It cannot have helped that he was a Treasury insider at a time when his boss, Selwyn Lloyd, had introduce an extremely unpopular pay policy that hit the usual targets - nurses, teachers, etc, and increased taxes on sweets, ice cream and the like (the 'Pocket Money Tax', that was not lost on me). Selwyn Lloyd was sacked in the 'Night of the Long Knives' as MacMillan desperately tried to cling to power and popularity. I hadn't heard about the anti-semitism before, but I can believe it, they were not tolerant times.

 

[507021]

That now looks unlikely: Lembit Opik has recently been expelled from the LibDems after speaking at a Conservative event called "How to Stop the Lib Dems"!

I hope the Tories kept the receipt.