Where does the London commuter belt end?

[Turtle]

My wife and I moved from Orpington to Grantham 20 years ago. The trade off, influenced by family factors, was easy.

House prices in Lincolnshire were much lower, meaning that the significant additional season ticket costs would be affordable - for context, we purchased a 4 bed detached house for the same price we sold our 2 bed terrace. For equal distances from Charing Cross and Kings Cross, the additional journey time was about 20-30 minutes. However, that was a trade from a crush loaded Networker to a pre-bookable GNER train. Frequencies at the key times were approximately the same, so less waiting around.

Even now, with remote working much better established, the trains between 6:30 and 7:30 load well from Grantham, and it is absolutely part of the commuter belt.

I worked in the early 2000s with a person who commuted daily to the West End fom Grantham but lived in Colsterworth, a village several miles from Grantham to which she drove. Another colleague commuted daily from Bath with a further travelling 3 days a week from Swindon. The London commuter belt is, indeed, substantial.

 

[D6130]

Err....there seems to be no response to that quote! Tech gremlins?

EDIT: Response has now appeared!

 

[J-2739]

I worked in the early 2000s with a person who commuted daily to the West End fom Grantham but lived in Colsterworth, a village several miles from Grantham to which she drove. Another colleague commuted daily from Bath with a further travelling 3 days a week from Swindon. The London commuter belt is, indeed, substantial.

No offence, but these sound rather ghastly. The things that people will do to have a back garden and en-suite...

 

[ChiefPlanner]

People with stamina have for various reasons done "heroic" commuting - fare paying regulars I can think of was Abergavenny to Paddington and another who did Croydon to Chippenham. Free travel ? priv rate staff have often done bad commutes - e.g. a Bakerloo guard based at Baker Street lived on the Isle of Wight and another Met line driver at Neasden travelled in from Port Talbot.

As far back as the mid 1980's something like 500 passengers a day commuted to Euston on I/C services ......

 

[miklcct]

In my opinion, there are at least 3 rings of commuter land.

1st ring: places within 25 km from Charing Cross, mostly served by slow suburban trains, until the first call by fast trains. For example, Romford, Barnet, Mill Hill, Wembley, Harlington, Kingston, Croydon. These places are for all purposes outer suburbs of London.

2nd ring: places approximately between 25 km and 50 km from Charing Cross. These places are separated from London by the Green Belt but are still economically depend on London. Most of these places have fast trains into London, and they may be beyond the reach of slow trains, making travel into the London suburbs less viable. They are still clearly the commuter land. Examples include Shenfield, Hertford, Welwyn, St Alban's, Rickmansworth, Watford, Slough, Woking, Redhill, Sevenoaks.

3rd ring: places between 50 and 80 km from Charing Cross. These are the outermost reaches of the commuter land, and start being attracted to the major city / town in the country direction. Examples of the major city / town, which I consider as not part of the commuter land, include Colchester, Cambridge, Bedford, Milton Keynes, Bicester, Reading, Basingstoke, Brighton, Ashford. These are the limit of the commuter land. Any further than that are solidly into regional travel rather than commuter travel.

 

[35B]

No offence, but these sound rather ghastly. The things that people will do to have a back garden and en-suite...

You need to note the points about travel time and environment. I can manage my time in the office by using time on the train as working time, and the journey is significantlly less stressful than the Zone 5 alternative. If I stay with family (Southfields) and travel to the office, I get up at about the same time, and have a much worse journey. At a quarter of the mortgage.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

You need to note the points about travel time and environment. I can manage my time in the office by using time on the train as working time, and the journey is significantlly less stressful than the Zone 5 alternative. If I stay with family (Southfields) and travel to the office, I get up at about the same time, and have a much worse journey. At a quarter of the mortgage.

Indeed - a world of difference from commuting on a 159 into Waterloo from say Whitchurch , as opposed to the crush on a 319 from St Albans (but that would be better - apart from the cost - to say than the Northern line from Tooting Broadway.

 

[Ken X]

There are other perks (apparently). I was asked to look at a lift in a posh block of flats near Brooklands. The consierge said most of the properties were rented by commuters who appeared on Monday and vanished on Friday. A few of these were occupied by single ladies who were very well dressed but didn't seem to work much.

 

[GJMarshy]

Wilmslow.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

There are other perks (apparently). I was asked to look at a lift in a posh block of flats near Brooklands. The consierge said most of the properties were rented by commuters who appeared on Monday and vanished on Friday. A few of these were occupied by single ladies who were very well dressed but didn't seem to work much.

In the 19thC , similar arrangements were made for St Johns Wood !

 

[Transilien]

Bakerloo guard based at Baker Street lived on the Isle of Wight

The Isle of Wight seems harder to commute from than places like Grantham considering the ferry!

 

[ChiefPlanner]

The Isle of Wight seems harder to commute from than places like Grantham considering the ferry!

Exactly - I was helping out at Wimbledon that morning when the service was wrecked due to severe snow and ice ( BR staff in those days were expected to report to their local station and assist) , when the first Portsmouth arrived looking like it had come from the North Pole and this young man asked if we had an LT auto phone (which it had in the supervisors office) , he spoke to the train crew bloke at Baker St and reported with his duty number , only to be thanked and told to make his way home. So we made him some tea and "arranged" for the next Pomo to stop for him. I was genuinely amazed at his resilience , but suggested there were some BR locations which would have happily taken him , and much nearer than Baker Street.

 

[J-2739]

You need to note the points about travel time and environment. I can manage my time in the office by using time on the train as working time, and the journey is significantlly less stressful than the Zone 5 alternative. If I stay with family (Southfields) and travel to the office, I get up at about the same time, and have a much worse journey. At a quarter of the mortgage.

I suppose if you use the commuting time productively - reading a career-related book rather than doomscrolling on the phone - then that can really make up for the shortfall of a long commute. Especially so if your station is near the end of a line, so isn't crowded out, and you can find a seat to relax in.

I'm going to be commuting from Hither Green into Central London soon, and I doubt I will ever find a seat (not the time!) to relax...

 

[renegademaster]

I suppose if you use the commuting time productively - reading a career-related book rather than doomscrolling on the phone - then that can really make up for the shortfall of a long commute. Especially so if your station is near the end of a line, so isn't crowded out, and you can find a seat to relax in.

I'm going to be commuting from Hither Green into Central London soon, and I doubt I will ever find a seat (not the time!) to relax...

My experience of long inter city commutes is you'll spend most of the time sleeping

 

[J-2739]

My experience of long inter city commutes is you'll spend most of the time sleeping

Wow, I'm starting to understand why some are refusing to go back into the office...

 

[Bald Rick]

I worked in the early 2000s with a person who commuted daily to the West End fom Grantham but lived in Colsterworth, a village several miles from Grantham to which she drove.

Most long distance Grantham commuters* drive to the station. Some of the villages around are beatiful.

*I speak as a former member of that club. There’s a LOT more car parking around there then when I did it.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Most long distance Grantham commuters* drive to the station.

I'd probably venture that most outside-the-Zones London commuters generally drive to the station. It's an early enough start as it is without adding time to it to walk or cycle.

 

[Bald Rick]

I'd probably venture that most outside-the-Zones London commuters generally drive to the station. It's an early enough start as it is without adding time to it to walk or cycle.

That depends. Take St Albans (sorry). About 5-7000 people commute from there to London. There’s only about 1,500 parking spaces at the station, (at over £10/day) and it’s a rare day the car parks are all full. Almost all street parking for over a mile around is restricted with residential permits required. (two exceptions I’m aware of, and no I’m not telling). Most of the residents are within a 20 minute walk / 10 minute cycle, and they do. Especially as in that radius it is usualy quicker to walk than drive at peak times.

St Albans won’t be unusual in that respect.

 

[J-2739]

Most long distance Grantham commuters* drive to the station. Some of the villages around are beatiful.

*I speak as a former member of that club. There’s a LOT more car parking around there then when I did it.

I'd probably venture that most outside-the-Zones London commuters generally drive to the station. It's an early enough start as it is without adding time to it to walk or cycle.

That depends. Take St Albans (sorry). About 5-7000 people commute from there to London. There’s only about 1,500 parking spaces at the station, (at over £10/day) and it’s a rare day the car parks are all full. Almost all street parking for over a mile around is restricted with residential permits required. (two exceptions I’m aware of, and no I’m not telling). Most of the residents are within a 20 minute walk / 10 minute cycle, and they do. Especially as in that radius it is usualy quicker to walk than drive at peak times.

St Albans won’t be unusual in that respect.

I'm guessing that even with the many villages outside places like Grantham and St Albans, they still wouldn't be contributing as many commuters as the larger town/city centres.

 

[Mr. SW]

For a while in the early noughties, I had a pretty heroic commute from Hemel Hempstead to Richmond.
> Walk to Hemel Station (About a mile - quicker than whatever bus there was)
> Silverlink to Harrow and change
> Either Silverlink Metro (Watford Line) or Bakerloo to Willesden Junction and change
> Silverlink Metro (North London) to Richmond.
> Short walk to work.
> Moaned at by manager on being late.
I could do it in a couple of hours with a following wind.
And the same back again.
And, yes, there was disruption:
> Being turfed out at Watford Junction
> Being turfed out at Wembley Central
> Forced into taking Silverlink Metro or Bakerloo all the way into town.
> Spectacularly late due to disruption on North London Line
and the same in reverse.
> Three-quarter hour wait on Harrow Station etc.
Sometimes I did not get back home until nearly nine.
And then I had to make a meal or get a takeaway...

 

[Bald Rick]

I'm guessing that even with the many villages outside places like Grantham and St Albans, they still wouldn't be contributing as many commuters as the larger town/city centres.

Grantham, yes. But there wont be many places outside the M25 where a higher proportion of the working population commute to London than St Albans.

 

[Magdalia]

I'd probably venture that most outside-the-Zones London commuters generally drive to the station. It's an early enough start as it is without adding time to it to walk or cycle.

Definitely no.

Take the GN branch stations Letchworth-Foxton. Only Royston has a big car park, with about 500 spaces. The other 6 stations have fewer than 300 spaces between all of them.

Cambridge is a big station and only has 330 car park spaces, but a cycle park with 2850 spaces.

 

[miklcct]

You need to note the points about travel time and environment. I can manage my time in the office by using time on the train as working time, and the journey is significantlly less stressful than the Zone 5 alternative. If I stay with family (Southfields) and travel to the office, I get up at about the same time, and have a much worse journey. At a quarter of the mortgage.

I'm thinking of moving further out as my current home is not good, but the problem is that apart from getting to work I also need to make sure that the transport into London Zone 2/3 is good enough for my time outside work.

Only if the train services from outside the zones to intermediate stations are significantly improved (e.g. in the case of the Elizabeth line from Brentwood after COVID, when TfL changed the service to every train all stations) I'll be attracted to places further out in the commuter area. Especially in the Southern land the local services are so bad that I have been put off from moving to Croydon.

 

[35B]

I'm guessing that even with the many villages outside places like Grantham and St Albans, they still wouldn't be contributing as many commuters as the larger town/city centres.

Grantham won't; I defer to @Bald Rick on St Albans - but also note that it's only 20% of the distance from London that Grantham is.

But the question is about the commuter belt, and Grantham is definitely a London commuter station, with a sizeable flow of people commuting. That includes at least one uniformed TfL employee that I've seen, as well as the predictable range of office workers.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Grantham won't; I defer to @Bald Rick on St Albans - but also note that it's only 20% of the distance from London that Grantham is.

Having thought about it more, I suspect it's probably different between small places like St Albans and big ones like Milton Keynes (encompassing all three stations to a fair extent, though I expect a larger proportion of users walk to Bletchley/Wolverton than do to MKC just based on how much housing is immediately adjacent to the three). And also places that have a bigger or smaller hinterland - for instance Tring is basically a Parkway station and I suspect will have a very high proportion arriving by car, I suspect well over 90% though figures would be interesting!

 

[JGurney]

The Berwick-upon-Tweed to London Terminals season is still in the fares system. No idea who's buying it, but it's there!

How many journeys per month would be needed before the season ticket had cost less than buying individual tickets, edp. with similar flexibility? There might also be the value of using the season ticket for (relatively) shorter day trips to Newcastle or perhaps York.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

How many journeys per month would be needed before the season ticket had cost less than buying individual tickets, edp. with similar flexibility? There might also be the value of using the season ticket for (relatively) shorter day trips to Newcastle or perhaps York.

£2771.40 for a monthly Berwick-upon-Tweed to/from London Terminals season ticket. Single fare (one way) is £198.80 albeit with possible savings if buying sets of carnet tickets. Reckon you'd need to make at least eight return journeys on the monthly season for optimal value, so that would be roughly two round trips per week.

 

[Indigo Soup]

AIUI I don’t think it can be read quite like that. If you have it set for railway TTWA it will tell you that from that area 75% of the rail commuters live and work within that area. So that “London” area is really a London and South East area.

Yes, that's quite right - it's a very maximalist view, which probably sets an outer limit for what might be considered the London commuter belt. The true limit is almost certainly closer in.

Anyway, even if there's a brain drain to London during the day, a lot of their pay will be spent locally.

This is what gives rise to the concern. It'll look from headline figures like the non-London economy is doing well, but there'll be a perception that it's been hollowed out, with plenty of working class/service sector jobs but an expectation that getting ahead requires the London commute.

Reckon you'd need to make at least eight return journeys on the monthly season for optimal value, so roughly two round trips per week.

I could actually envisage some market for the weekly, maybe the monthly, seasons. I'd be very surprised if anyone bought an annual season for that route.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

I could actually envisage some market for the weekly, maybe the monthly, seasons. I'd be very surprised if anyone bought an annual season for that route.

Think you have to buy this particular season ticket for a minimum period of one month. The carnet is there for anyone wanting to do multiple trips over a week or so.

 

[J-2739]

Grantham won't; I defer to @Bald Rick on St Albans - but also note that it's only 20% of the distance from London that Grantham is.

I reckon that the higher service frequencies also play a part in St Albans' favour, in that there are fewer consequences of missing a specific train, and you don't have to run your life quite so strictly according to the train times. Just glancing at the latest timetable period, there are about 2-3 LNER and 1 Hull Trains train times that would get you into King's Cross between 8:30-9pm. Tight, but handy if your office is nearby.

Compare with St Albans City, where there are six Thameslink trains in the same time period, and there is no contest here. And the Thameslink trains penetrate deep into the capital, as an extra.

Hypothetically, I wonder what the outlook for Grantham would look like if it had St Albans-like frequencies into London. That would be a lot of LNER trains...