Where does the London commuter belt end?

[Bletchleyite]

I reckon that the higher service frequencies also play a part in St Albans' favour, in that there are fewer consequences of missing a specific train, and you don't have to run your life quite so strictly according to the train times.

Perhaps ironically, walking might be the best way to arrive for a precisely timed train. The time taken to walk a given route is very consistent indeed, far more so than going by car if there are things like traffic lights and crossings to contend with. For a journey you do often there'll likely be just seconds of difference between the journey times each day.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

You could hardly describe the venerable Cathedral city of St Albans as a "small place" - over 148,000 in 2021 with an increase of 5.4% since 2011 , but Milton Keynes has 248,000 in 2021 having seen a stonking increase of jst over 15% in that census period.

Much of St Albens has a compact core , which assists foot / cycle acess to the station , and recent development has unsurprisingly been of higher density apartments - often using repurposed ex office premises. The 1930's and later "suburban" ring is within the 20 to 30 mins walk. Naturally , the historical ambience demands a premium of property values. Our 1934 built house is 17 mins walk , and will be priced accordingly if / when it goes on the market. (it has only had 4 owners in all that time , 2 of them being railway employees .......they rarely sell quite frankly)


Milton Keynes of course is a classic planned car city , with lower density population ,and geared towards it.


A "small place" would be something like the university settlement of Lampeter in West Wales , despite it's status , it has a population of just over 2000.

 

[Bletchleyite]

You could hardly describe the venerable Cathedral city of St Albans as a "small place" - over 148,000 in 2021 with an increase of 5.4% since 2011 , but Milton Keynes has 248,000 in 2021 having seen a stonking increase of jst over 15% in that census period.

It's physically smallish, which is because it's high density (as you say). The population has no bearing on the proportion of pedestrianism. What causes more pedestrianism is probably threefold - that distances between things are short (which outside of little villages means high density) because most people won't walk journeys of more than maybe 15-20 minutes (hence why the "15 minute city" is such a big thing), that walking is pleasant and feels safe (which probably rules out "total segregation" of the kind found in New Towns - people feel safer if footpaths are by roads even if that isn't borne out in actual fact) and that driving is perhaps less than pleasant or disproportionately expensive (e.g. your tenner for parking - Bletchley is about £6 and there's free non-controversial street parking if you know where to find it).

Milton Keynes is the extreme example - it's physically the size of Liverpool's main built up area but with about a quarter of the population. That said, the density of the area around Bletchley is probably pretty average, and Wolverton is (in British terms) quite high density, being primarily a town of close packed terraced housing, hence why I suspect walking to those stations is higher than MKC.

But looking elsewhere I'd not be surprised if most commuter users of say Aylesbury and Bedford stations drive to them, to be honest (there is high density housing near both stations, but the demographics that mostly live in them aren't that likely to be London commuters as the areas aren't that nice). But if you go looking around the Southern network for the little village stations, provided they're in the village centre (which some aren't) people probably mostly walk.

 

[Bald Rick]

Perhaps ironically, walking might be the best way to arrive for a precisely timed train. The time taken to walk a given route is very consistent indeed, far more so than going by car if there are things like traffic lights and crossings to contend with. For a journey you do often there'll likely be just seconds of difference between the journey times each day.

Exactly!

 

[35B]

I reckon that the higher service frequencies also play a part in St Albans' favour, in that there are fewer consequences of missing a specific train, and you don't have to run your life quite so strictly according to the train times. Just glancing at the latest timetable period, there are about 2-3 LNER and 1 Hull Trains train times that would get you into King's Cross between 8:30-9pm. Tight, but handy if your office is nearby.

Compare with St Albans City, where there are six Thameslink trains in the same time period, and there is no contest here. And the Thameslink trains penetrate deep into the capital, as an extra.

Hypothetically, I wonder what the outlook for Grantham would look like if it had St Albans-like frequencies into London. That would be a lot of LNER trains...

St Albans is ~20 miles from London, Grantham is 100 miles. The fares reflect that, and so does the demand - it's not all about time or frequency. The frequency that really matters is on the way home, when I know which trains I can go for, and don't have to worry overmuch about precise timings.

My regular train is the 06:58, which gets in at 08:09; it is the second of 4 trains that run at sensible times for pre-9:00 commuting. Demand has fallen since Covid - what was standing room only from Peterborough now has seats to spare.

As for location, you need to think where in London you want to be. Thameslink is great for the City, but if working in the West End (as I once did), connections are still required.

 

[Magdalia]

(there is high density housing near both stations, but the demographics that mostly live in them aren't that likely to be London commuters as the areas aren't that nice)

What areas are like is dynamic not static. Places with cheap houses that are within walking distance of stations with commutable journeys usually get gentrified.

The streets of two up two down Victorian terraces near Cambridge station are a good example. When I was growing up in Cambridge they were the cheap end of the market, but electrification made commuting from Cambridge a much more practical option. Now a prospective buyer is unlikely to get change from half a million.

 

[Bletchleyite]

What areas are like is dynamic not static. Places with cheap houses that are within walking distance of stations with commutable journeys usually get gentrified.

It doesn't universally happen. It hasn't happened in Bletchley in the last however-many years and it's not coming soon, either. Milton Keynes is so amenable to driving that people choose the nice areas and drive to the station and to entertainment/shopping facilities.

Duncombe St in particular is an utter rathole populated only with people who can't afford better.

Wolverton is more varied but again if you can afford better than a two up two down terrace with a serious parking problem why wouldn't you in the city of the car?

I think your view is more applicable to towns and cities where car use is an inconvenience.

 

[35B]

It doesn't universally happen. It hasn't happened in Bletchley in the last however-many years and it's not coming soon, either. Milton Keynes is so amenable to driving that people choose the nice areas and drive to the station and to entertainment/shopping facilities.

Duncombe St in particular is an utter rathole populated only with people who can't afford better.

Wolverton is more varied but again if you can afford better than a two up two down terrace with a serious parking problem why wouldn't you in the city of the car?

I think your view is more applicable to towns and cities where car use is an inconvenience.

Gentrification has many factors. In my lifetime the Southfields Grid has gone from being a candidate for demolition and replacement with tower blocks to houses being £1m+. Why it developed in quite this way and not other areas I'm not quite sure.

 

[telstarbox]

That depends. Take St Albans (sorry). About 5-7000 people commute from there to London. There’s only about 1,500 parking spaces at the station, (at over £10/day) and it’s a rare day the car parks are all full. Almost all street parking for over a mile around is restricted with residential permits required. (two exceptions I’m aware of, and no I’m not telling). Most of the residents are within a 20 minute walk / 10 minute cycle, and they do. Especially as in that radius it is usualy quicker to walk than drive at peak times.

St Albans won’t be unusual in that respect.

Tonbridge and Tunbridge Wells are similar. Sevenoaks might be more car dominated as the station has a bigger car park and it's outside the town centre. Some people will be dropped off / picked up if their partner works locally.

 

[700720]

In the last 10 years Cambridge has become a significant commuting destination in its own right, including people travelling out from London, and that can be expected to continue into the future. In particular lots of people on the Fen Line are commuting to Cambridge not London.

Cambridge is also home to several good schools and sixth forms which attract a lot of school traffic into the city mainly from nearby destinations (Ely, Newmarket, Royston etc) but even from further out places like Bishops Stortford and Harlow.

On the Trainline website, the #1 journey booked with the 16-17 saver railcard is Ely to Cambridge.