The following possibly could do with a few corrections here and there, but...How much of the Chiltern upgrade was actually planned new from the private sector? As I understand that most of the route underwent 'total route modernisation', i.e. colour light signalling controlled by signalling centres, in the end of the 80s, and the introduction of the 165s was done under NSE.
The Chiltern Railways franchise began in 1996. They redoubled Princes Risborough to Bicester North, reconstructed a station at Haddenham & Thame Parkway, and raised some of the permissible speeds to 100 miles / hour. Then, they opened Warwick Parkway. It was also during this time that the fleet of 'Clubman' DMUs was ordered and entered service - they ended up building 19 sets in a variety of 3 and 4 car formations.
Then, there is the current franchise which runs 2002 - 2022. This involved taking the double track further north from Bicester North station to Anynho Junction, and some work was done to upgrade the line's speed and signalling between Banbury and Leamington Spa. Then the famous 'Evergreen 2' project which realinged or added a very significant few bits of track (including at build-out at Bicester North, trunback at Gerrards Cross, straightening at Beaconsfield, Neasden, Northold etc, the through line at Princes Risborough) to allow higher speeds. Work was done to add new platforms at London Marylebone and at Birmingham Moor Street, and the new Wembley LMD was opened.
Then came 'Evergreen 3', the project to build a completely new 100 miles per hour line branching off the mainline, with construction of all new stations at Bicester Village, Islip and Oxford Parkway.
Now, exactly how much of this was private-sector led I can't say for sure. However, certainly a very significant amount of the work done since 2002 has been done on the basis of money from the franchisee. It's unclear to me what the situation was before the 2002 award, but it is apparently the case that a significant amount of the infrastructure that has been built since 1996 continues to be owned by the franchisee, including stations. If a new incoming franchisee were appointed, presumably they would need to buy these, unless the government steps in to do so first.
However, no matter how you look at it, the line has been completey transformed since the first franchise was awarded - it now looks nothing like it did then. A significant amount of other new rolling stock was also taken on, with the 4 new class 172s, the 9 converted class 170s and of course the story of the locomotive hauled trains.
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