Which restrictions, if any, work? What's causing the drop in case numbers?

[WelshBluebird]

The correlation=causation argument.

While lockdowns may or may not have some effect in reducing cases in the short term, it cannot be assumed that they are always the reason. Cases naturally fluctuate (as they have this time - numbers were already starting to fall before the latest lockdown or vaccine could have had any effect). In April the weather warmed up significantly - cases would be expected to drop significantly then.



It's pretty clear from looking at a graph that this is exactly what happened.

If we were just talking about one lockdown, I'd admit you may have a point.
But three lockdowns, and three reductions in cases and eventually deaths.
Somewhat of a pattern isn't it?
If you want to assume it was the weather for April, fine, but then what explains the November dip and the January dip (since January has been just as cold as December was).

I'm not saying lockdowns are the single answer, or they stop COVID, as I said its just a delaying tactic until vaccination. If we didn't get a vaccine (or if the vaccines we do have don't work well) then yes lockdowns are pointless. But as it is, just look at the data. In each lockdown we have had, cases have dropped off soon after with deaths following a bit later.

And it is pretty hard being sat here when people in NZ are able to go to gigs and sports events without any worry! Try telling them that hard lockdowns don't work!

 

[DB]

If we were just talking about one lockdown, I'd admit you may have a point.
But three lockdowns, and three reductions in cases and eventually deaths.
Somewhat of a pattern isn't it?

No, not really - peaks are normally followed by dips, be it colds, flu or whatever - it's doesn't relentlessly keep increasing. Given that the lockdowns were imposed as a result of heading towards a peak, it's not surprising at all that there would be a dip not long afterwards.

Also, in the most recent cases the decrease appears to have started before the lockdown would have had time to have any effect.

 

[sjpowermac]

If we were just talking about one lockdown, I'd admit you may have a point.
But three lockdowns, and three reductions in cases and eventually deaths.
Somewhat of a pattern isn't it?

What you have to remember is that the coronavirus is a very clever virus. It always knows when a lockdown is just around the corner and it then reduces the rate at which it infects people. Spooky or what?

 

[WelshBluebird]

No, not really - peaks are normally followed by dips, be it colds, flu or whatever - it's doesn't relentlessly keep increasing. Given that the lockdowns were imposed as a result of heading towards a peak, it's not surprising at all that there would be a dip not long afterwards.

Also, in the most recent cases the decrease appears to have started before the lockdown would have had time to have any effect.

So you are telling me that we just happened to have three lockdowns at each of the three peaks, and that is some kind of coincidence? Really?

 

[DB]

So you are telling me that we just happened to have three lockdowns at each of the three peaks, and that is some kind of coincidence? Really?

It's not a coincidence. The lockdowns were as a result of numbers heading towards a peak - the point is that this would probably have tailed off anyway without the lockdown.

Look at countries without lockdowns and the pattern is similar - it's doesn't just keep increasing exponentially.

 

[nedchester]

What you have to remember is that the coronavirus is a very clever virus. It always knows when a lockdown is just around the corner and it then reduces the rate at which it infects people. Spooky or what?

Bizarre indeed.....

 

[kentrailman]

Schools schools schools ! The last 'lockdown' didn't work because the schools were open. People catch it off their children then spread it round the family. Also a lot of people are catching it in hospital .. Going in or being seen in a hospital for another reason without covid, then coming out ( if they come out ) with covid and having to go back in with covid complications a few weeks later.
From my selfish point of view with a second home I really want to check for leaks in this freezing weather, I am frustrated I have not for months been able to travel to an empty house on a journey when I will meet no-one ( would have got the train before but have driven since all this) and would interact with no-one once there, yet in the last ' lockdown' 30 plus children had all been mixing just up the road from me every day.

 

[DB]

Bizarre indeed.....

It's more the locktivists who credit this virus with sentient powers.

The concept of lockdowns being imposed when it's heading towards a peak is hardly a surprising concept - theat's when governments panic and make knee-jerk reactions. The reason why it peaks and then dips is the question, and locktivists would like us to believe that this is entirely due to the lockdown. Some of us don't believe this - while the lockdown might have some impact (but not enough to justify the damage it causes, by a long way), the likelihood is that the dip would have occurred anyway.

If anyone doesn't think this is the case, perhaps they'd like to explain why in cases where there isn't a lockdown, it doesn't just keep on increasing until it reaches herd immunity.

 

[Bantamzen]

What you have to remember is that the coronavirus is a very clever virus. It always knows when a lockdown is just around the corner and it then reduces the rate at which it infects people. Spooky or what?

Or perhaps analysts spotting a potential slowdown & triggering a lockdown to make the lockdown "work"....?

 

[Solent&Wessex]

Schools schools schools ! The last 'lockdown' didn't work because the schools were open. People catch it off their children then spread it round the family. Also a lot of people are catching it in hospital .. Going in or being seen in a hospital for another reason without covid, then coming out ( if they come out ) with covid and having to go back in with covid complications a few weeks later.
From my selfish point of view with a second home I really want to check for leaks in this freezing weather, I am frustrated I have not for months been able to travel to an empty house on a journey when I will meet no-one ( would have got the train before but have driven since all this) and would interact with no-one once there, yet in the last ' lockdown' 30 plus children had all been mixing just up the road from me every day.

As much as I know it will upset lots of people, it does seem that the only real correlation between restrictions and drops in case numbers is schools and other educational settings.

Lockdown 2 had a less prolonged and less steep drop as the schools were only closed for the 1 week half term in late October, just before the lockdown started (and hence and reduction in case rates due to children not mixing for a week would start to filter through the figures about the time the lockdown started). Likewise in January. The peak was reached, and cases started dropping just before the lockdown started. Which just so happened to be about 1.5 - 2 weeks after the schools closed for the Christmas break. The rates have continued to drop because the schools have remained closed. The time of major increase not claimed to be associated with a new variant strain was last September. just as schools and universities went back! Strangely at the time the increase was almost universally blamed on university students, although this was most likely because they were being tested whilst school pupils were not, and in the main don't show any symptoms.

Now of course this isn't the only reason - a reduction in people going to work, mixing in shops, gyms etc may also contribute. But, looking at last year, whenever local restrictions limiting hospitality or certain types of retail were introduced it never manifested in such a big drop in figures which would suggest that those interventions were less useful

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

As much as I know it will upset lots of people, it does seem that the only real correlation between restrictions and drops in case numbers is schools and other educational settings.

Lockdown 2 had a less prolonged and less steep drop as the schools were only closed for the 1 week half term in late October, just before the lockdown started (and hence and reduction in case rates due to children not mixing for a week would start to filter through the figures about the time the lockdown started). Likewise in January. The peak was reached, and cases started dropping just before the lockdown started. Which just so happened to be about 1.5 - 2 weeks after the schools closed for the Christmas break. The rates have continued to drop because the schools have remained closed. The time of major increase not claimed to be associated with a new variant strain was last September. just as schools and universities went back! Strangely at the time the increase was almost universally blamed on university students, although this was most likely because they were being tested whilst school pupils were not, and in the main don't show any symptoms.

Now of course this isn't the only reason - a reduction in people going to work, mixing in shops, gyms etc may also contribute. But, looking at last year, whenever local restrictions limiting hospitality or certain types of retail were introduced it never manifested in such a big drop in figures which would suggest that those interventions were less useful

My sentiments as well and the experts know this im sure but they had all summer to come up with a contingency plan to find a halfway house that recognises the risk and mitigates it accordingly to provide a sensible balance.