Why are people opposed to HS2? (And other HS2 discussion)

[XC victim]

My mind is yet to be made up about the project, mainly because a have several questions that I haven’t had answered.

1, what will fares be like on the service? If it is more expensive (or even perceived to be more expensive) than existing services then it may struggle to attractive most passengers away from existing services therefore fail to provide the capacity increases promised.

2, How will it connect to existing services. Most passengers aren’t travelling from the centre of Birmingham, Manchester or Leeds to Euston. There for what will connections be like and what direct services via HS2 and existing infrastructure will there be?

3, will the existing WCML & XC services be maintained or will users of those services find they deteriorate?

I am a passionate believer in the rail network in this country and welcome any improvements to it be I am genuinely worried the HS2 project could lead to a greater fragmentation of the network and a two tier system leaving the vast majority on second class service

 

[jon0844]

Bigger, longer, trains should allow for cheaper fares. Of course walk-up fares may not be cheap, but everyone knows you save if you plan ahead.

If any operator thought they could jack up fares (even assuming they were able to just pick a figure out of thin air) they'd end up moving empty seats around.

Private companies are out to make money, but charging more doesn't always pay off.

 

[Aictos]

My mind is yet to be made up about the project, mainly because a have several questions that I haven’t had answered.

1, what will fares be like on the service? If it is more expensive (or even perceived to be more expensive) than existing services then it may struggle to attractive most passengers away from existing services therefore fail to provide the capacity increases promised.

HS1 has a surcharge for fares routed HS1, that hasn't struggled to attract passengers and has indeed provided the capacity increases that Kent was promised.

2, How will it connect to existing services. Most passengers aren’t travelling from the centre of Birmingham, Manchester or Leeds to Euston. There for what will connections be like and what direct services via HS2 and existing infrastructure will there be?

Connections at Birmingham are right next door to Moor Street and a 10 minute walk if that from New Street so connections there are fine.

3, will the existing WCML & XC services be maintained or will users of those services find they deteriorate?

I can't see the existing WCML and XC services deteriorating, indeed the WCML services with the exception of the LNWR services for now will be managed by the same company running HS2 services under the West Coast Partnership branding so little difference apart from maybe more IC services serving Pre VHF stations such as Nuneaton, Trent Valley etc

 

[6Gman]

If it was well slotted together then we wouldn't have the dubious claims of congestion or maximum capacity.
I've always used the phrase smart timetabling to mean exploring how existing services could be retimed or rerouted depending on depending on circumstances, or whether existing timetables could be reworked to reflect passenger numbers over a certain period. Having very fixed and rigid timetables is at the heart is the so called capacity problems.

But what does that actually mean ? You seem to assume that there are options which would allow extra capacity. But what if there aren't? Or if the measures which h could create extra capacity are unacceptable e.g. replacing Preston-Euston Pendolinos with 12-car 350/2s. Lots of extra seats, but ...

 

[Bald Rick]

If it was well slotted together then we wouldn't have the dubious claims of congestion or maximum capacity.
I've always used the phrase smart timetabling to mean exploring how existing services could be retimed or rerouted depending on depending on circumstances, or whether existing timetables could be reworked to reflect passenger numbers over a certain period. Having very fixed and rigid timetables is at the heart is the so called capacity problems.

But the south end of the WCML is at maximum capacity in terms of train paths. As are the approaches to Birmingham New Street from the Coventry direction.

Can I respectfully suggest that you go and get a job in the capacity planning department of Network Rail - there are plenty of jobs available. Then after you have been trained in the science and art of timetabling, you can study the WCML timetable, in detail, and work out how to provide the extra capacity forecasted to be required with your ‘smart timetbaling’ (whatever that is, many of us would be interested to hear practical examples). And, if you do find a way (which, incidentally, has eluded the finest and most experienced timetablers in this country for the last 15 years since the timetable that exists today was initially developed), I will be quite prepared to eat a large sombrero on the concourse at Euston.

 

[EM2]

...exploring how existing services could be retimed or rerouted depending on depending on circumstances, or whether existing timetables could be reworked to reflect passenger numbers over a certain period.

People get confused enough when trains are retimed a few minutes for engineering work or leaf fall.
Retiming because not so many people travel on Tuesdays in August (for example) would be a recipe for chaos.
As Bald Rick suggests, come and do the job. We need all the help we can get!

 

[Tetchytyke]

But the south end of the WCML is at maximum capacity in terms of train paths.

In terms of train paths, yes. In terms of ultimate capacity, nowhere near.

Like most of the network, the paths are taken by small trains running at high frequencies. Or, in the case of Virgin (apart from on the first evening offpeak train), empty trains running at high frequencies.

You can't have WMT/LNR running 4-car trains and Virgin running 5-car Voyagers and tell me capacity is being used appropriately.

 

[Clip]

But the south end of the WCML is at maximum capacity in terms of train paths. As are the approaches to Birmingham New Street from the Coventry direction.

Can I respectfully suggest that you go and get a job in the capacity planning department of Network Rail - there are plenty of jobs available. Then after you have been trained in the science and art of timetabling, you can study the WCML timetable, in detail, and work out how to provide the extra capacity forecasted to be required with your ‘smart timetbaling’ (whatever that is, many of us would be interested to hear practical examples). And, if you do find a way (which, incidentally, has eluded the finest and most experienced timetablers in this country for the last 15 years since the timetable that exists today was initially developed), I will be quite prepared to eat a large sombrero on the concourse at Euston.

A good challenge but I fear one that has been put to the poster before.

Will that be a nacho sombrero that you will be eating ala homer simpson?

 

[Mag_seven]

When talking about WCML capacity one of the most short sighted decisions was not to make all the Class 390s 11 cars.

 

[Bald Rick]

In terms of train paths, yes. In terms of ultimate capacity, nowhere near.

Like most of the network, the paths are taken by small trains running at high frequencies. Or, in the case of Virgin (apart from on the first evening offpeak train), empty trains running at high frequencies.

You can't have WMT/LNR running 4-car trains and Virgin running 5-car Voyagers and tell me capacity is being used appropriately.

There’s not many 4 or 5 cars running around at peak times. And Virgin trains are certainly not empty!

 

[camflyer]

To get directly back to the original question, "Why are people opposed to HS2?", it does seem to me that the whole project has been extraordinarily badly marketed to the public.

I agree- the branding, marketing and PR has been terrible. The name "HS2" is bad enough but having a major part of the project called "Phase 2b" is insane. It makes it sound like an unimportant add-on, gives no indication of where the construction will be or what the benefits will be. Surely some imagination could have been used - the Great Yorkshire Line, or something like that.

 

[abn444]

Nobody seems to have a problem with something like the East-West railway, even though it benefits the relatively prosperous Oxfordshire/ Buckinghamshire/ Cambridgeshire etc - yet when HS2 is proposed the reaction is along the lines of "I'm against it because it won't regenerate various struggling towns".

East West Rail is planned to be a conventional line which will have intermediate stations giving local people along the route access to it, something HS2 won't do directly even if it does improve the service on lines that are relatively close. In addition, EWR does something new by giving access across that region and therefore can be seen to people as something better since it can be seen as helping local people and not just people in big cities like London and Birmingham

 

[kylemore]

I agree- the branding, marketing and PR has been terrible. The name "HS2" is bad enough but having a major part of the project called "Phase 2b" is insane. It makes it sound like an unimportant add-on, gives no indication of where the construction will be or what the benefits will be. Surely some imagination could have been used - the Great Yorkshire Line, or something like that.

Good point - HS2 - so noughties!

How about "New Midlands Railway" for the first section and the "Lancashire and Yorkshire" or "The Roses Line" for the section to Manchester and Leeds?

 

[si404]

1, what will fares be like on the service? If it is more expensive (or even perceived to be more expensive) than existing services then it may struggle to attractive most passengers away from existing services therefore fail to provide the capacity increases promised.

They were promised (OK, long lead time of 10+years from Transport Minister's promise to opening) to be no higher than the classic line fares before opening.

Given the increase in supply that will take place, it is very likely to cost you less to travel between Manchester, Birmingham, London, Leeds, etc (though the idea of having both WCML and HS2 in the hands of the same TOC initially will keep the current near-monopoly pricing in play there).

 

[camflyer]

East West Rail is planned to be a conventional line which will have intermediate stations giving local people along the route access to it, something HS2 won't do directly even if it does improve the service on lines that are relatively close. In addition, EWR does something new by giving access across that region and therefore can be seen to people as something better since it can be seen as helping local people and not just people in big cities like London and Birmingham

Which is another example of how the benefits of HS2 haven't been explained properly. By moving express services onto the new line, it will allow more and better local stopping services and take more freight off the roads.

 

[Aictos]

But the south end of the WCML is at maximum capacity in terms of train paths. As are the approaches to Birmingham New Street from the Coventry direction.

Can I respectfully suggest that you go and get a job in the capacity planning department of Network Rail - there are plenty of jobs available. Then after you have been trained in the science and art of timetabling, you can study the WCML timetable, in detail, and work out how to provide the extra capacity forecasted to be required with your ‘smart timetbaling’ (whatever that is, many of us would be interested to hear practical examples). And, if you do find a way (which, incidentally, has eluded the finest and most experienced timetablers in this country for the last 15 years since the timetable that exists today was initially developed), I will be quite prepared to eat a large sombrero on the concourse at Euston.

Indeed, I've seen first hand how the art of timetabling is done* and while they do take on suggestions from within, it is a difficult job to do.

*For a NSE area TOC

As to the WCML, considering the fact that they have to juggle London Overground, LNWR, Virgin Trains, Freights all at different speeds is very difficult to do but they do it well as to the armchair experts if they know better why don't they apply for the job and see how difficult it is?

When talking about WCML capacity one of the most short sighted decisions was not to make all the Class 390s 11 cars.

What was short sighted was the fact that apart from the existing Class 390 fleet should all have been extended to 11 cars plus 4 or 5 extra to allow for growth but at the same time a second batch of 9 car sets should have been ordered in order to displace the Class 220/221 fleets to XC so operating one type of traction with the 9 car 390s being dragged on the North Wales services.

 

[camflyer]

Good point - HS2 - so noughties!

How about "New Midlands Railway" for the first section and the "Lancashire and Yorkshire" or "The Roses Line" for the section to Manchester and Leeds?

Or even the Red Rose Line and White Rose Line. Anything is better than "Phase 2b"

 

[kylemore]

Or even the Red Rose Line and White Rose Line. Anything is better than "Phase 2b"

Yes they have no imagination - just think of the local goodwill you could engender - it's not too late, you could have an official renaming when you have the ceremony of cutting the first sod!

 

[The Planner]

In terms of train paths, yes. In terms of ultimate capacity, nowhere near.

Like most of the network, the paths are taken by small trains running at high frequencies. Or, in the case of Virgin (apart from on the first evening offpeak train), empty trains running at high frequencies.

You can't have WMT/LNR running 4-car trains and Virgin running 5-car Voyagers and tell me capacity is being used appropriately.

So what happens if the trains are extended to their maximum lengths? how much time does that buy you before you need a physical intervention?

 

[abn444]

Which is another example of how the benefits of HS2 haven't been explained properly. By moving express services onto the new line, it will allow more and better local stopping services and take more freight off the roads.

I agree to an extent however I think that no matter how well it is marketed it'll still be seen as linking two places which are already well connected which just isn't as attractive to the public as something which links new places, even if the capacity improvements are important.

 

[abn444]

I think another thing that is overlooked is that all of this is banking on increasing passenger numbers, something which there is no guarantee of, especially since we've started to see them level off already in places

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Indeed, I've seen first hand how the art of timetabling is done* and while they do take on suggestions from within, it is a difficult job to do.

*For a NSE area TOC

As to the WCML, considering the fact that they have to juggle London Overground, LNWR, Virgin Trains, Freights all at different speeds is very difficult to do but they do it well as to the armchair experts if they know better why don't they apply for the job and see how difficult it is?



What was short sighted was the fact that apart from the existing Class 390 fleet should all have been extended to 11 cars plus 4 or 5 extra to allow for growth but at the same time a second batch of 9 car sets should have been ordered in order to displace the Class 220/221 fleets to XC so operating one type of traction with the 9 car 390s being dragged on the North Wales services.

I am eagerly awaiting my son's arrival home , so he (an MKC based timetable professional - who's day job is the WCML , and often does long days and the odd extra day on weekends and Bank Holidays) can read this "idea" about "Smart Timetabling"

His father , the tapper on this post , had just a bit to do with the national timetabling process , specifically the 2004 WCML TT , which took us a mere 3+ years to nail down , the hardest pieces being south of MKC on all lines and the Coventry corridor. I will not mention the number of meetings we had , and many of them were not easy.

This is why we need HS2 ….

 

[Class 170101]

"Improve signalling". Show me a high speed, mixed traffic railway anywhere in the world that provides better than the current 3 minute WCML planning headway does. And where you put all these trains when you get to the end of the line

"Smart timetabling": What is "dumb" about the current WCML timetable? Where is lack of smartness currently wasting capacity?

"Move focus from London". Done. The centre of the HS2 network is Birmingham, which sees a huge step change in its northwards comnectivity with HS2, arguably moreso than London..

Is the WCML a true 3 minute headway? I seem to recall something that says after so many successive moves there needs to be a four minute gap?

Some would argue the wasted capacity is empty trains. Do we really need 3tph to Birmingham and Manchester whilst other destinations receive less, like Liverpool or Glasgow? Why no Euston to Edinburgh services via the Trent Valley perhaps? Do 110mph maximum speed paths waste capacity on the WCML Fast Lines too? Also if you are an intermediate user on the WCML would you consider the current WCML timetable to be a smart one?

Not even if a significant proportion of current XC demand between Birmingham and Manchester, and between Birmingham, Leeds, York and Newcastle is abstracted onto HS2, freeing up more 'local' capacity.

Even Cambridge/Stansted-Birmingham, the timing travelling via Euston and HS2 will be drastically faster than the current XC route via Melton Mowbray/Leicester.

And the good folk of York will have several trains and hour that pretty much run straight onto HS2 infrastructure a few minutes after departure.

I would argue that perhaps Curzon Street should have been built as a through station rather than as a terminus station allowing an extension to the west / southwest this could free up capacity between Birmingham and Leeds / York. Similarly Leeds for the same reason to allow fast services to head north from there. Birmingham may be able to be resolved (not optimally) if a link can be made to the east of Birmingham onto phase 2B.

Yes! Lentran Loop supporter! (There really don't appear to be many on this forum.)

Worthy of further serious consideration definitely having seen the performance problems on the Far North Line for myself.

 

[The Planner]

Is the WCML a true 3 minute headway? I seem to recall something that says after so many successive moves there needs to be a four minute gap?

3 minutes Euston to Crewe on the fasts, no consideration required for successive moves. It would be in section 5.2.2 of the TPR if so.

Some would argue the wasted capacity is empty trains. Do we really need 3tph to Birmingham and Manchester whilst other destinations receive less, like Liverpool or Glasgow? Why no Euston to Edinburgh services via the Trent Valley perhaps? Do 110mph maximum speed paths waste capacity on the WCML Fast Lines too? Also if you are an intermediate user on the WCML would you consider the current WCML timetable to be a smart one?

If you take a Birmingham or Manchester out and replace it with a Liverpool or Glasgow it is still the same amount of trains south of Rugby.

 

[Class 170101]

If you take a Birmingham or Manchester out and replace it with a Liverpool or Glasgow it is still the same amount of trains south of Rugby.

I agree with you on track capacity but in terms of passenger loadings I think less fresh air would be carried around WCML services off peak if the destination spread was better.

 

[Esker-pades]

Worthy of further serious consideration definitely having seen the performance problems on the Far North Line for myself.

There is a petition in the signature of @backontrack .
I've also written quite a long article about possible improvements to the Far North Line here https://felixunstructured.weebly.co...e-far-north-line-problems-and-ways-to-improve .

 

[Clip]

I agree with you on track capacity but in terms of passenger loadings I think less fresh air would be carried around WCML services off peak if the destination spread was better.

Citation needed that you claim theres lots of fresh air being carted around - the trains I use frequently now at all times of day seem well loaded if not rammed which puts paid to many posters' theory about them being empty - and im up and down the WCML a lot nowadays

 

[Ianno87]

If you take a Birmingham or Manchester out and replace it with a Liverpool or Glasgow it is still the same amount of trains south of Rugby.

And of course there are only 56 Pendolinos to play with. The 3tph Manc/Brum cycles are incredibly efficient use of them.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Can I respectfully suggest that you go and get a job in the capacity planning department of Network Rail - there are plenty of jobs available.

Really? I have to admit, when I read that, my first reaction was, Wow, that sounds absolutely fascinating. I'd love to do a job like that.

(Unfortunately, about minute later, reality returned - in the form of, but I already have a perfectly good career and life in software development, which I have no wish to give up).

Out of curiosity, does 'plenty of jobs' mean it's the kind of thing that it's hard to find enough suitable people for?

 

[Ianno87]

Out of curiosity, does 'plenty of jobs' mean it's the kind of thing that it's hard to find enough suitable people for?

There's about 450 people in Milton Keynes, which means that jobs naturally come up due to turnover with a team that size. But yes, train planning is quite a particular skill. Some perfectly intelligent people don't "get" it, whilst people who you wouldn't expect to do really well.

It's also a great route into the industry for progression due to the other areas and organisations you get exposed to, hence jobs being available by progression.