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Why so many deaths outside hospitals?

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MikeWM

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These are presumably regulations designed to keep the system moving in the face of a large number of deaths. What we don't know just from reading them is to what extend these new freedoms were used.

Agreed; one can deduce they were well-intentioned given an approaching potential crisis. Or not, depending on your (evolving) opinion.

As for the article...the language at the start doesn't suggest it's going to be a terribly impartial analysis and seems to be suggesting that somehow Covid death figures are being inflated deliberately so that somebody can make money from a vaccine.

I did say it was more opinionated for a factual article for my liking. I haven't seen the facts laid out better elsewhere though, and facts are facts, even if those communicating the facts have an agenda.

But that aside, they claim that we have had several years with higher excess deaths than seen when this was written. By looking at whole years maybe that works if you compare against bad flu years - but comparing monthly figures for different years something extreme clearly is happening to excess deaths.

Another claim is that the excess deaths we are seeing must be mostly due to the NHS refusing to treat other conditions because very few of them are actually due to Covid-19 but were nevertheless reported as such. I suppose that could be the case - that hospitals are full of people being cured of Covid-19 (or just sitting empty waiting for them) while peopel who would have been cured in hospital sat at home. I don't think so but I can't wave any figures around to dispute it.

I did also have some issue with the 'all cause mortality as a % of population' chart at the time; I can't remember what it was though.

The comments are quite interesting, especially when someone tries to set in with some reasoned responses and is jumped on quite rapidly.

The comments are often 'quite interesting' on off-guardian pieces. That's what happens when you don't moderate :)

*However*, all that being said, I was angling for analysis of the information about death certification, and whether there are errors in that. Ignore the opinionated bit at the start and the out-of-date bit at the end :)
 
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AdamWW

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The original UK material would have come from the ONS (Office of National Statistics) website. They've been collecting and analysing data from registered deaths for decades, going back to Victorian times.

Indeed but the FT will have copyright in their graphs using the data (which I'm very pleased to see all show zero on the y axis).
 

AdamWW

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I did say it was more opinionated for a factual article for my liking. I haven't seen the facts laid out better elsewhere though, and facts are facts, even if those communicating the facts have an agenda.

I don't think it's as simple as "facts are facts", and when the author appears to have a particular agenda it makes me more wary of taking them at face value.

To give the example I mentioned above, it's a "fact" that the new regulations were brought in, but if in fact they weren't used that fact means something very different than if they have been used widely.
 

Djgr

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I won't copy it because it's presumably copyright, but there are graphs on the FT web pages which show excess deaths this year, the average from the last few years, and as thin grey lines the actual figures from previous years.
You can see that in many countries including the UK the excess deaths are well above the other years.

But wait until the Winter - a combination of "harvesting" and covid precautions reducing flu spread might push them well under the average.

(Which isn't to say that someone dying 6 months before they would otherwise have had is fine).

If it's online it's fair game for copying
 

Crossover

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Someone I know who works in NHS confirmed that many death certificates were written out with COVID-19 as the cause even if it wasn't.

I've heard similar, be it third hand. Also suggestions that some of the above prevents delays in release. If it is true, I wonder if any deaths are avoiding "due process" if just written out as being COVID
 

AdamWW

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If it's online it's fair game for copying

I do not believe that this is true from a legal point of view.

From a practical point of view, it's pretty much impossible to stop anyone from doing so.

But I wouldn't want to get a forum into trouble by posting copyright material on it.

My daughter is a GP:
since lockdown, most appointments in her group of practices have been by telephone consultation, for obvious reasons (including the fact that you can offer them while you are isolating or shielding!).
Not bothering the GP ended early in May, so her workload has been full-on since then, and telephone consultation is significantly more demanding and time consuming than face to face.
I am sure hard evidence of GPs sitting around doing nothing would interest the mainstream media.

For the record, I was not suggesting that GP's are sitting round twiddling their fingers waiting - I'm sure that isn't the case.
But I think it is not unreasonable to wonder if GP's are failing to diagnose things that they would have if they had been able to have the patient in front of them.

I did say it was more opinionated for a factual article for my liking. I haven't seen the facts laid out better elsewhere though, and facts are facts, even if those communicating the facts have an agenda.

*However*, all that being said, I was angling for analysis of the information about death certification, and whether there are errors in that. Ignore the opinionated bit at the start and the out-of-date bit at the end :)

Fair point. So you did. Well, my approach would be to see if I can find information elsewhere.

There is an article in the Independent, including
The coronavirus pandemic has sparked many crazy conspiracy theories on social media. One of these is the notion that doctors issuing death certificates are either writing Covid-19 to inflate the overall numbers of deaths, or deliberately omitting it to play the numbers down.

The online warriors spouting such theories rarely have any background in healthcare, but they nevertheless seem equally confident in their claims that we medics are being financially incentivised to ramp up or play down the true figures on Covid-19 deaths, or are somehow pressurised by the authorities to breach our own professional codes. These conspiracy theorists and also love to tell the world that doctors sometimes write Covid-19 on certificates when there had not been a positive test, as if this is a revelation.

To summarise, an NHS doctor explains:
- They don't have to just put one thing - they can give a cause of death and then other factors that have contributed. So Covid-19 can be given as the cause, or as a contributory factor.
- It's not unreasonable to put a death down as Covid-19 when all the symptoms and test results suggest it even without a specific Covid-19 positive result - which in their experience can often show negative for a patient and a later test shows positive
- There is no incentive for doctors to suddenly drop their professional ethics.

I would imagine that the author of the article you found would dismiss this as mainstream media propaganda. And there's not much I can say to that.
 

Bantamzen

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There is an article in the Independent, including


To summarise, an NHS doctor explains:
- They don't have to just put one thing - they can give a cause of death and then other factors that have contributed. So Covid-19 can be given as the cause, or as a contributory factor.
- It's not unreasonable to put a death down as Covid-19 when all the symptoms and test results suggest it even without a specific Covid-19 positive result - which in their experience can often show negative for a patient and a later test shows positive
- There is no incentive for doctors to suddenly drop their professional ethics.

I personally do not doubt the integrity of the doctors, they have to make the best assessment as to cause of death that they can. However that notwithstanding, this does point to a potential problem with the covid mortality data. As long suspected cases that appear to be covid but not tested could be included on the mortality rate, even though covid might either not be the primary cause of death, or indeed that covid not be involved but the deceased displayed covid like symptoms (which have been expanded quite a bit from the original set). It is even possible that someone previously tested as covid positive could potentially be involved.

Either way, I think the government are going to have to think seriously about how we report this and other infections going forward. We can't be making high level decisions on data that might be seriously flawed.
 

MikeWM

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I don't think it's as simple as "facts are facts", and when the author appears to have a particular agenda it makes me more wary of taking them at face value.

Which is precisely why I said what I did. I wanted to know if there were issues with the *facts* in the article. If the facts are correct, it *is* as simple as 'facts are facts', whatever the source.

To give the example I mentioned above, it's a "fact" that the new regulations were brought in, but if in fact they weren't used that fact means something very different than if they have been used widely.

This is true - we're then reduced to anecdotal accounts. That's why you have these safeguards in the first place, so you don't have to rely on anecdotal accounts. Remember Harold Shipman (in response to whom many of these safeguards were brought in) wasn't caught for a very long time - and only then because he got greedy and started playing around with the wills of his victims.
 

MikeWM

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There is an article in the Independent, including


To summarise, an NHS doctor explains:

I'm not sure you can criticise the article I mentioned for being opinionated when this one can't seem to stop mentioning so-called 'conspiracy theorists' and how 'crazy' they are!
 

30907

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For the record, I was not suggesting that GP's are sitting round twiddling their fingers waiting - I'm sure that isn't the case.
My apologies for the unintended insinuation, it was an afterthought,
and related to the post below. I've struck through my original comment

"I am sure hard evidence of GPs sitting around doing nothing would interest the mainstream media."

Mine is still diverting its phone number to the regional 'NHS hub'. Yet I"m still paying taxes to fund it, and the five doctors who work there. I presume they are still being paid, what are they doing? How long will they keep sitting there doing nothing on full pay? Why are we tolerating this?
 
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Jamesrob637

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Fridays can also produce very high death tolls in all settings so let's see what today brings.

Looks like 98 in all settings of which 16 in hospitals.

Likely to be the first week we've not seen a day of triple digits. Saturdays tend to go lower and obviously Sunday and Monday will be rock bottom.

Could be a seven-day rolling average in the 50s too.
 
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Bletchleyite

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If that's from PHE "catching up" then surely we all know by now to ignore those figures

If you want to see the true figures, look at https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ and switch it to by country rather than whole UK, and it'll show by date of test/date of death which gives a much smoother curve. The downside here is that you have to ignore the last 3 days or so as the reporting delays make them low.
 

Jamesrob637

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If that's from PHE "catching up" then surely we all know by now to ignore those figures

Is that a recent thing? Numbers fell very steadily from Tuesday to Saturday in the beginning of the decline, now they fall sharply Tuesday to Thursday, rise again Friday (often to Tuesday's level or even a little more) then drop again Saturday and are rock bottom on Sundays and Mondays.
 

adc82140

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Even taking that in to consideration, it's double figures today (just). 98. Could we have the first full week where every day has been below 100?
 

MikeWM

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Even taking that in to consideration, it's double figures today (just). 98. Could we have the first full week where every day has been below 100?

47 reported in England hospitals *this week* (Saturday 1st - Friday 7th).

The PHE figures are total nonsense.
 

adc82140

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Indeed. If the nonsense phe figures are this low, then we're winning.
 

Jamesrob637

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Even taking that in to consideration, it's double figures today (just). 98. Could we have the first full week where every day has been below 100?

I'd imagine so. This week has followed the trend of Friday rising to (and slightly above) that of Tuesday but there'll be a serious issue if tomorrow is as high.
 

johnnychips

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I'd imagine so. This week has followed the trend of Friday rising to (and slightly above) that of Tuesday but there'll be a serious issue if tomorrow is as high.
By ‘serious’ I trust you mean an investigation into why the figures have risen, identifying clusters etc. rather than a national panic.
In Doncaster borough last week there were just six new cases and one death: tackling local outbreaks seems to be the way forward rather than imposing more national restrictions.
 
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