Why so many deaths outside hospitals?

[Bletchleyite]

Yes it puzzles me that the UK hospital deaths are about 100 or so per week now but total weekly deaths 450-500ish so are so many people dying at home? There are now less than 1300 people in hospital with Covid in the UK now with less than 100 on mechanical ventilators so why so many still dying??

Quite possibly because they weren't actually COVID deaths, but rather deaths of other causes of people who had at some point in the past tested positive for COVID.

 

[adc82140]

Exactly. The amount of people with Covid has been greatly underestimated, with the vast vast majority asymptomatic. People are dying as they normally do of other things but many will happen to have covid on board. A covid death doesn't require a positive test either. Just the suspicion of a doctor, and many death certificates are written out by the most inexperienced doctors too.

 

[AdamWW]

Exactly. The amount of people with Covid has been greatly underestimated, with the vast vast majority asymptomatic.

Obviously very good news if that's true, but I haven't seen strong evidence that it's so. Depends what you mean by "vast, vast" I suppose but I don't think random sampling has shown even as much as 10 asymptomatic for every symptomatic person (and someone with an asymptomatic test might then go on to show symptoms).

 

[Jimini]

I’m basing this on a sample size of two (yeah I know), but two people independent of each other that I’ve spoken to that work in care homes have suggested that it’s beneficial for care homes to register an on-site death as being Covid-19 +ve as it gets the body removed a hell of a lot quicker.

 

[Crossover]

I’m basing this on a sample size of two (yeah I know), but two people independent of each other that I’ve spoken to that work in care homes have suggested that it’s beneficial for care homes to register an on-site death as being Covid-19 +ve as it gets the body removed a hell of a lot quicker.

I've equally heard (anecdotally) that hospitals can be a similar story (mainly that Covid is the ‘easy answer’)

There are some slightly crazy theories doing the rounds but some do get one thinking, it has to be said, as it does feel like they hold water

 

[Bantamzen]

Obviously very good news if that's true, but I haven't seen strong evidence that it's so. Depends what you mean by "vast, vast" I suppose but I don't think random sampling has shown even as much as 10 asymptomatic for every symptomatic person (and someone with an asymptomatic test might then go on to show symptoms).

Random sampling around the world has found anywhere from 5% to over 75% of random testing to be

asymptomatic, some of the results are shown in this link:

COVID-19: What proportion are asymptomatic? - The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine

Carl Heneghan, Jon Brassey, Tom Jefferson Readers of the blog will be aware that we have little trust in the

www.cebm.net

The problem with random testing though is that we can't be sure that the levels of the virus needed to activate a positive test are equal to, or less than the amount needed to pass the virus from host to host. But it is becoming clearer that there may be a significant percentage of the population that are capable of being infected, but displaying no symptoms. And given that random sampling usually involve statistically insignificant numbers compared to population size, & that

asymptomatic cases are more likely to go undetected in wider testing regimes, its not hard to conclude that in the population as a whole there will be many more than the data does or can show.​

​

 

[30907]

Exactly. The amount of people with Covid has been greatly underestimated, with the vast vast majority asymptomatic. People are dying as they normally do of other things but many will happen to have covid on board. A covid death doesn't require a positive test either. Just the suspicion of a doctor, and many death certificates are written out by the most inexperienced doctors too.

The stats suggest otherwise: significantly fewer deaths registered with Covid as a contributory factor than deaths of people who have tested positive. So if anything doctors might be underestimating when they certify.

I’m basing this on a sample size of two (yeah I know), but two people independent of each other that I’ve spoken to that work in care homes have suggested that it’s beneficial for care homes to register an on-site death as being Covid-19 +ve as it gets the body removed a hell of a lot quicker.

Unlikely to be the case now when care home deaths are at or below normal levels and Covid a small proportion - bodies will go pretty promptly anyway.

BTW I don't think you mean register - that is done by next of kin for obvious reasons.

 

[AdamWW]

The stats suggest otherwise: significantly fewer deaths registered with Covid as a contributory factor than deaths of people who have tested positive. So if anything doctors might be underestimating when they certify.


Unlikely to be the case now when care home deaths are at or below normal levels and Covid a small proportion - bodies will go pretty promptly anyway.

BTW I don't think you mean register - that is done by next of kin for obvious reasons.

Personally I think the country is currently in a bad enough state without having to find conspiracy theories to worry about.

 

[MikeWM]

The excellent CEBM examine the issue of why so many *non*-Covid deaths are occurring at home.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid...-discrepancies-in-deaths-outside-of-hospital/

While the currently registered deaths in England and Wales have fallen below the five-year average for the last five weeks, excess deaths at home remain above average and high. Over 700 excess deaths per week – 3,799 in total reported in the home setting over the past five weeks. Only 179 deaths of these have mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate.

It is not clear why there is such excess in the home. What is clear is that this represents a huge number of unexplained – and potentially avoidable deaths – particularly if they represent individuals deterred from visiting hospitals.

The number of deaths in the home setting are almost 50% higher than the total number registered with COVID-19 in any setting over the last five weeks (3,799 versus 2,582).

Troubling, but unfortunately unsurprising.

 

[Scrotnig]

The excellent CEBM examine the issue of why so many *non*-Covid deaths are occurring at home.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid...-discrepancies-in-deaths-outside-of-hospital/


Troubling, but unfortunately unsurprising.

Well we've basically stopped treating almost everything that isn't the virus. We've closed doctors' surgeries. We've made people terrified of going to hospitals. And we've cancelled things like cancer treatment and cancer screening.

And we wonder why there's excess deaths in the home. Hmm.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Well we've basically stopped treating almost everything that isn't the virus.

That was the case at the height of the lockdown but isn't now. Over the past 3 weeks I have been treated both as an inpatient and an outpatient for another (serious, but now under treatment and I should recover fully in time) medical condition.

 

[Scrotnig]

That was the case at the height of the lockdown but isn't now. Over the past 3 weeks I have been treated both as an inpatient and an outpatient for another (serious, but now under treatment and I should recover fully in time) medical condition.

Yes that's true in some areas, but not in others.

There's a growing scandal about cancer patients being disregarded, for instance.

A lot of areas are still saying "go away" to anyone with a medical condition other than the virus.

And across the country huge numbers of doctors' surgeries remain closed. Mine is still diverting its phone number to the regional 'NHS hub'. Yet I"m still paying taxes to fund it, and the five doctors who work there. I presume they are still being paid, what are they doing? How long will they keep sitting there doing nothing on full pay? Why are we tolerating this?

 

[AdamWW]

Yes that's true in some areas, but not in others.

There's a growing scandal about cancer patients being disregarded, for instance.

A lot of areas are still saying "go away" to anyone with a medical condition other than the virus.

And across the country huge numbers of doctors' surgeries remain closed. Mine is still diverting its phone number to the regional 'NHS hub'. Yet I"m still paying taxes to fund it, and the five doctors who work there. I presume they are still being paid, what are they doing? How long will keep sitting there doing nothing on full pay? Why are we tolerating this?

Good grief - I had no idea.

Our surgery has stayed "open" the whole time, though I don't know what you'd have to do to get a face to face appointment.

I strongly suspect though that whatever the doctors in your surgery are doing, it's not sitting around doing nothing.

 

[Scrotnig]

Good grief - I had no idea.

Our surgery has stayed "open" the whole time, though I don't know what you'd have to do to get a face to face appointment.

I strongly suspect though that whatever the doctors in your surgery are doing, it's not sitting around doing nothing.

What beggars belief is the government either can't or won't instruct this nonsense to stop.
They should simply issue an instruction that doctors surgeries are to reopen with immediate effect. Fine if they want to do telephone triage, but you can't diagnose everything that way.

For some reason the government aren't doing this. I really hope it's not because they have somehow lost the power to.

 

[corfield]

Yes that's true in some areas, but not in others.

There's a growing scandal about cancer patients being disregarded, for instance.

A lot of areas are still saying "go away" to anyone with a medical condition other than the virus.

And across the country huge numbers of doctors' surgeries remain closed. Mine is still diverting its phone number to the regional 'NHS hub'. Yet I"m still paying taxes to fund it, and the five doctors who work there. I presume they are still being paid, what are they doing? How long will they keep sitting there doing nothing on full pay? Why are we tolerating this?

Quite. My Doctors did telephone chats but would not do prescriptions because it was “not safe for us or you“.

They had me call an ambulance in order to get pain killers for backpain. I felt an utter **** when they turned up, they were pretty unhappy but then had a right go at the Doctor when they (paramedics) rang to check my story! They said they’d make a more formal complaint via their management as they were very busy and doing this was lunacy. Subsequently the Doctors surgery was using its own staff to distribute prescriptions so clearly something was changed.

My neighbour has been in constant pain for 4 months now since her op was cancelled. Not even a date for a new one yet. She was left without her prescriptions for over a week and only got them subsequently because she went to the hospital and sat there and refused to leave until someone did something.

That is what all this panic and doom mongering has led to on the ground.

I dread to imagine those who died because of all this.

Those advocating more extreme versions of all this nonsense should reflect that reality is much messier than neat theories and that just like war (another thing Governments think they can control), once you let the leash slip, anything and everything will happen and a lot of it will be as bad if not worse than whatever you thought you were dealing withz

 

[adc82140]

I work on the health service. Confidentiality prevents me from posting here details of what has happened to some of my patients as a result of corona obsession. Some of the stories I've heard and witnessed are very upsetting. I'd love it if dome of the Facebook lockdown enthusiasts could talk to them.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Only 7 in hospitals today - lowest Tuesday by some margin since pre-lockdown. Will likely edit this soon with the final figure.

89 - first double-digit Tuesday since pre-lockdown.

 

[Richard Scott]

I've equally heard (anecdotally) that hospitals can be a similar story (mainly that Covid is the ‘easy answer’)

There are some slightly crazy theories doing the rounds but some do get one thinking, it has to be said, as it does feel like they hold water

Someone I know who works in NHS confirmed that many death certificates were written out with COVID-19 as the cause even if it wasn't.

 

[AdamWW]

Someone I know who works in NHS confirmed that many death certificates were written out with COVID-19 as the cause even if it wasn't.

That would be quite serious (depending on what "many" actually means).

But even if we suppose all the Covid death figures are rubbish, we still have excess death figures that are rather hard to fiddle. Unless of course there has been something else happening we don't know about that has been killing lots of people.

 

[adc82140]

I'm not ready to buy in to the false Covid death certificates, but something has been going on that's killing lots of people: the closedown of NHS services leaving serious illnesses like heart disease, cancer and strokes undiagnosed and untreated.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'm not ready to buy in to the false Covid death certificates, but something has been going on that's killing lots of people: the closedown of NHS services leaving serious illnesses like heart disease, cancer and strokes undiagnosed and untreated.

999 service has never been limited for any part of the period. If you suspect stroke, you ALWAYS call 999.

I've had treatment for another serious condition (blood clotting related) which was provided as quickly and efficiently as it otherwise would be, give or take the addition of a COVID test and a need to wear a mask.

Anyone who didn't do that brought it upon themselves. Perhaps a side effect of "Project Fear" but certainly not limited in availability.

It's chronic-ish stuff like cancer and heart disease (as you say) that would be missed, but we wouldn't be seeing those deaths yet, we'll see those over the coming months and years.

 

[adc82140]

A GP friend of mine has seen a 70% reduction in new angina cases. This is concerning, as angina is obviously a prelude to a heart attack. These cases are not going away, so the only conclusion you can draw is that fear is keeping them away. The same with strokes. Many believe that as soon as you set foot in hospital Covid will get you.

 

[MikeWM]

I'm not ready to buy in to the false Covid death certificates, but something has been going on that's killing lots of people: the closedown of NHS services leaving serious illnesses like heart disease, cancer and strokes undiagnosed and untreated.

It isn't necessarily 'false' if it is permitted - the changes to certification at the start of all this are troubling.

This still seems to be the best explanation I've found. It is a little over-opinionated, but concentrate on the 80-90% of the article that relays facts. I'd be very interested if anyone can point out errors in the *facts* presented.

https://off-guardian.org/2020/05/05/covid-19-is-a-statistical-nonsense/

For example, these statements

The Coronavirus Act 2020 received Royal assent on March 25th. This had significant implications for the registration of deaths and the accuracy of ONS data in relation to COVID 19.

Not only did the act indemnify all NHS doctors against any claims of negligence during the lockdown, it also removed the need for a jury led inquest. Effectively, only in the case of death from the notifiable disease of COVID 19. Worrying as these elements of the legislation are, they are just part of a raft of changes singling out registered COVID 19 deaths as unusually imprecise.

The NHS issued guidance to assist doctors to comply with the new legislation. Any doctor can sign the MCCD. There is no need for the scrutiny of a second Medical Examiner. The Medical Examiner, or any other doctor, can sign the MCCD alone. The safeguards introduced in 2016 were removed, but only in the case of COVID 19.

Doctors do not necessarily need to have examined the deceased prior to signing the MCCD. If it is considered impractical for the doctor who last saw the deceased to complete the MCCD, providing they report that the deceased probably had COVID 19, any other qualified doctor can sign the death certificate as a COVID 19 death.

There is no requirement for any signing doctor to have even seen the deceased prior to issuing the MCCD. A video link consultation within the 4 week period leading up to the patient’s death, is deemed sufficient for them to pronounce death from COVID 19.

If that were not tenuous enough, as long as the signing doctor believes the death was from COVID 19, potentially absent any examination at all, perhaps simply by reviewing the patient’s case notes, if a coroner agrees, a COVID 19 death can still be registered.

..


In other words, if the MCCD signing doctor hasn’t seen the patient, while they were alive, no further inquiry is necessary. The qualified informant can be someone who has neither met the deceased nor knows anything about the circumstances surrounding their death.


In this situation, but only for COVID19 deaths, it is fine to assume the death was from the disease.

 

[AdamWW]

A GP friend of mine has seen a 70% reduction in new angina cases. This is concerning, as angina is obviously a prelude to a heart attack. These cases are not going away, so the only conclusion you can draw is that fear is keeping them away. The same with strokes. Many believe that as soon as you set foot in hospital Covid will get you.

I don't know. If like most GP's they aren't seeing everyone face to face that in the past they would have done I think I'd want some evidence that a move to telephone consultations wasn't at least part of the story.

Not to mention people deciding "not to bother" the GP at the moment.

 

[jtuk]

That would be quite serious (depending on what "many" actually means).

But even if we suppose all the Covid death figures are rubbish, we still have excess death figures that are rather hard to fiddle. Unless of course there has been something else happening we don't know about that has been killing lots of people.

Well, the obvious answer to the last question is "lockdown", but have we actually had a disproportionate amount of excess deaths? I'm not sure that it's actually outside standard variance at this stage

 

[AdamWW]

It isn't necessarily 'false' if it is permitted - the changes to certification at the start of all this are troubling.

This still seems to be the best explanation I've found. It is a little over-opinionated, but concentrate on the 80-90% of the article that relays facts. I'd be very interested if anyone can point out errors in the *facts* presented.

https://off-guardian.org/2020/05/05/covid-19-is-a-statistical-nonsense/

For example, these statements

These are presumably regulations designed to keep the system moving in the face of a large number of deaths. What we don't know just from reading them is to what extend these new freedoms were used.

As for the article...the language at the start doesn't suggest it's going to be a terribly impartial analysis and seems to be suggesting that somehow Covid death figures are being inflated deliberately so that somebody can make money from a vaccine.

But that aside, they claim that we have had several years with higher excess deaths than seen when this was written. By looking at whole years maybe that works if you compare against bad flu years - but comparing monthly figures for different years something extreme clearly is happening to excess deaths.

Another claim is that the excess deaths we are seeing must be mostly due to the NHS refusing to treat other conditions because very few of them are actually due to Covid-19 but were nevertheless reported as such. I suppose that could be the case - that hospitals are full of people being cured of Covid-19 (or just sitting empty waiting for them) while peopel who would have been cured in hospital sat at home. I don't think so but I can't wave any figures around to dispute it.

The comments are quite interesting, especially when someone tries to set in with some reasoned responses and is jumped on quite rapidly.

 

[AdamWW]

Well, the obvious answer to the last question is "lockdown", but have we actually had a disproportionate amount of excess deaths? I'm not sure that it's actually outside standard variance at this stage

I won't copy it because it's presumably copyright, but there are graphs on the FT web pages which show excess deaths this year, the average from the last few years, and as thin grey lines the actual figures from previous years.
You can see that in many countries including the UK the excess deaths are well above the other years.

But wait until the Winter - a combination of "harvesting" and covid precautions reducing flu spread might push them well under the average.

(Which isn't to say that someone dying 6 months before they would otherwise have had is fine).

 

[MarlowDonkey]

Well, the obvious answer to the last question is "lockdown", but have we actually had a disproportionate amount of excess deaths? I'm not sure that it's actually outside standard variance at this stage

Back in April and early May, the answer was yes. At its peak about double the average number for the corresponding week over the last five years. Most of the excess being "of" or "with" Covid-19. Since then the number of deaths has dropped back to normal or a little below normal.

 

[30907]

I don't know. If like most GP's they aren't seeing everyone face to face that in the past they would have done I think I'd want some evidence that a move to telephone consultations wasn't at least part of the story.

Not to mention people deciding "not to bother" the GP at the moment.

My daughter is a GP:
since lockdown, most appointments in her group of practices have been by telephone consultation, for obvious reasons (including the fact that you can offer them while you are isolating or shielding!).
Not bothering the GP ended early in May, so her workload has been full-on since then, and telephone consultation is significantly more demanding and time consuming than face to face.
I am sure hard evidence of GPs sitting around doing nothing would interest the mainstream media. Deleted because not a response to this post.

 

[MarlowDonkey]

I won't copy it because it's presumably copyright, but there are graphs on the FT web pages which show excess deaths this year, the average from the last few years, and as thin grey lines the actual figures from previous years.

The original UK material would have come from the ONS (Office of National Statistics) website. They've been collecting and analysing data from registered deaths for decades, going back to Victorian times.