Why wasn't HS2 phase 1 four-tracked to Birmingham?

[tasky]

My understanding is that London to Birmingham HS2 won't have any spare train slots beyond the current proposed service pattern

This seems (rightly) to be mentioned as a constraint whenever anyone suggests something like a new classic compatible route, or any other integration with existing or future lines, freight etc.

Would it have made sense to four-track the London to Birmingham phase, given the two branches of the phase 2 Y network will presumably as a result not be able to be used to their full capacity? They will each have the same capacity as the phase 1 line they are feeding in to.

Was this just a cost issue? Would it have been a good idea to four-track, or is it the right decision to go two tracks only?

I know people have talked about a second N-S high speed line east of HS2 phase one but that doesn't seem likely to happen any time soon. Or might it?

 

[daikilo]

My understanding is that London to Birmingham HS2 won't have any spare train slots beyond the current proposed service pattern

This seems (rightly) to be mentioned as a constraint whenever anyone suggests something like a new classic compatible route, or any other integration with existing or future lines, freight etc.

Would it have made sense to four-track the London to Birmingham phase, given the two branches of the phase 2 Y network will presumably as a result not be able to be used to their full capacity? They will each have the same capacity as the phase 1 line they are feeding in to.

Was this just a cost issue? Would it have been a good idea to four-track, or is it the right decision to go two tracks only?

I know people have talked about a second N-S high speed line east of HS2 phase one but that doesn't seem likely to happen any time soon. Or might it?

There are in fact 3 HS2 flows as I understand - Birmingham originator and each of the 2 branches of the Y. This means that even the 2 branches combined will be at less than the capacity of HS2 unless some of the traffic on the branches leaves/joins north of Birmingham and/or HS2 trains split at the junction to the branches.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Remember there's the classic WCML as well. HS2 is essentially a pair of "super fast lines", and trains can still run on the classic WCML to some destinations, e.g. those involving dirty diesel for part of their route.

 

[PeterC]

If no trains are starting / joining at Birmingham to go north then there would be under capacity on the two arms of the Y.

 

[snowball]

I assume that if Euston to the Water Orton triangle were made 4 tracks, there wouldn't be the platform capacity at Euston to fill more than one pair.

Once the whole Y network is in place, there will be trains originating at Brum to go NW and NE, but even so the NW and NE arms will not be as fully used as south of the triangle.

There will be four tracks from south of Birmingham Interchange to the NE/NW split at Curdworth, and a fully grade-separated junction with six tracks for the short distance between the triangle and the split.

When only phase 1 is is in place, will there be any trains starting at Curzon Street and turning NW?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

No new high speed line in Europe has more than 2 tracks, not even the original Paris-Lyon LGV in France which is pretty much at capacity.
They go for signalling improvements first (and are already bi-directional).

 

[TheGrew]

It is also worth noting that the HS2 trains will be considerably longer than current trains. Apparently the spec is for 1000 passengers seated whereas a current 11 car Pendolino seats just over 650. If the above is also for a single floor it may also be possible to go double decker like the TGV Duplex for additional capacity.

 

[edwin_m]

One of the early HS2 reports considered this very question. I think Euston capacity was mentioned as a constraint, but the suggestion was also made that if extra capacity was required it would be better to build a new line direct to London from somewhere on the eastern leg. This would take London to North-East trains off the Phase 1 trunk, give them a shorter and quicker journey and also open up HS access to other places. Various discussions on other threads have suggested routes such as London-Cambridge-Peterborough-Toton.

 

[daikilo]

It is also worth noting that the HS2 trains will be considerably longer than current trains. Apparently the spec is for 1000 passengers seated whereas a current 11 car Pendolino seats just over 650. If the above is also for a single floor it may also be possible to go double decker like the TGV Duplex for additional capacity.

Presumably any duplex trains would be limited to the HS2 tracks so only useful for Birmingham-London.

 

[snowball]

Presumably any duplex trains would be limited to the HS2 tracks so only useful for Birmingham-London.

All the trains built for phase 1 will be classic compatible, so none will be double-deck.

 

[tasky]

Thanks everyone for the illuminating and interesting replies

 

[PeterC]

All the trains built for phase 1 will be classic compatible, so none will be double-deck.

I had the impression from previous threads that the whole idea of dedicated trains had been dropped.

 

[quantinghome]

All the trains built for phase 1 will be classic compatible, so none will be double-deck.

Yes, it's when Phase 2 gets built that a double deck fleet could be ordered. I did a rough estimate and came up with 60+ train sets.

 

[snowball]

I had the impression from previous threads that the whole idea of dedicated trains had been dropped.

I think that's just speculation. It remains to be seen whether captive trains will be ordered for phase 2. And if there are captive trains, it further remains to be seen whether any will be double deck.

 

[Chester1]

I think that's just speculation. It remains to be seen whether captive trains will be ordered for phase 2. And if there are captive trains, it further remains to be seen whether any will be double deck.

I don't think the decision will be made until the late 2020s once demand for phase 1 + 2a has been measured and phase 2b demand predicted.

 

[deltic]

If the proposed Midland Connect and Northern Powerhouse Connections to HS2 are built then some of the spare capacity north of Birmingham will be used -eg it will be possible to run direct trains from Leicester to Leeds

 

[Jonny]

Perhaps the arms of the Y should be used for classic-compatible routes to southern and south-western XC destinations?

I still reckon that an extra HS line could run from London Liverpool Street to Cambridge, Lincoln, York, Newcastle and beyond (branches to Norwich, Leeds, etc.)

 

[matacaster]

If you only intend to build HS phase 1 to Birmingham, or less much likely, to also build Phase 2a, then there is no need for 4 tracks anyway!!

There is an article in The Times this morning, much behind a paywall which I do not have access to

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/7bn-cut-urged-as-hs2-costs-dwarf-rival-schemes-pqlhsfz0p

"£7bn cut urged as HS2 costs dwarf rival schemes
Ministers are under pressure to impose cutbacks to HS2 after a report warned that it would cost more than double that of other high-speed rail projects. The scheme would cost £81 million per kilometre compared with £32 million.."

The report, commissioned four years ago and focusing on the second phase of the line north of Birmingham, said that the project would be “at the high end of the range of costs” for any scheme worldwide. Total costs for the whole scheme stand at £55.7 billion. It said that HS2 Ltd, the government-owned company running the project, could cut its budget by 27 per cent, the equivalent of shaving more than £7 billion off the second phase."

My comment
Please note that since Phase 1 is pretty much settled and approved, any savings are likely to come from Phase 2. A simpler solution favoured by London-centric thinkers who are aware of the existence of Birmingham but have never even travelled that far north would be total cancellation of Phase 2 when Phase 1 budget inevitably gets revised. As I believed this was the plan all along, I am not remotely surprised - HS2 is simply a commuter line from Birmingham to London.

 

[snowball]

The actual report referred to in the Times report is here:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/high-speed-rail-international-benchmarking-study

 

[snowball]

Having now skim-read the report, I'd say there's nothing in it to justify matacaster's suspicions.

 

[daikilo]

The report for HS2 phase 2 quotes infrastructure + depots cost as 21.2bn in 2011 sterling (page 19) and the findings quote up to 27% potential saving on that (page 50). The recommendations on pages 51-54 suggest how they could be realised by each of the various contributors.

 

[lewisf]

There's no intermediate stations between London and Birmingham and everything will run at the same speed so there's no need for 4 tracking. You'd usually only find 4 tracked routes where you have a pair of fast lines for express services and a pair of slow lines for stopping services - but HS2 won't have any stopping services between London and Birmingham.

 

[Ianno87]

There's no intermediate stations between London and Birmingham and everything will run at the same speed so there's no need for 4 tracking. You'd usually only find 4 tracked routes where you have a pair of fast lines for express services and a pair of slow lines for stopping services - but HS2 won't have any stopping services between London and Birmingham.

Indeed.

The areas where HS2 Phase 1 passes through benefit from the provision of local services from the likes of Tring and Milton Keynes being less constrained by the provision of long distance WCML services on the same route.

 

[edwin_m]

If you look at it that way there will be at least six tracks between London and Birmingham.

 

[Ianno87]

If you look at it that way there will be at least six tracks between London and Birmingham.

Yep, basically 6-tracking Euston to Lichfield and beyond, 4-tracking Rugby to Birmingham. The other two tracks just happen to go via a completely different alignment, but take the bulk of the current 'Pendolino' service.

 

[Wychwood93]

There's no intermediate stations between London and Birmingham and everything will run at the same speed so there's no need for 4 tracking. You'd usually only find 4 tracked routes where you have a pair of fast lines for express services and a pair of slow lines for stopping services - but HS2 won't have any stopping services between London and Birmingham.

Old Oak Common? Or has that been dropped?

 

[Gareth]

Old Oak Common is in London.

 

[Wychwood93]

Old Oak Common is in London.

Indeed it is - Euston-Old Oak-Brum - not really a stopping service, but, still a stop along the way. In all fairness this would probably not be on every service - northbound for Heathrow you would go to Paddington and southbound a change would be handy. We shall no doubt see what happens.

 

[tasky]

There's no intermediate stations between London and Birmingham and everything will run at the same speed so there's no need for 4 tracking. You'd usually only find 4 tracked routes where you have a pair of fast lines for express services and a pair of slow lines for stopping services - but HS2 won't have any stopping services between London and Birmingham.

Ah yes, that is a very good point

 

[NotATrainspott]

Every London train will call at Old Oak Common. It's as important a station for London as Euston is, as it provides a better link for passengers in both west and east London (using the Elizabeth line) than is possible going via Euston. The range of journey start and end locations is wide enough that there'd be no benefit to cutting the OOC stop on any service. The station isn't like Stratford with a non-stop mainline route through it - every track will run past a platform with an 80km/h maximum speed.