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Will Keir Starmer last?

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Sad Sprinter

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Personally, I don't. He's not being himself really, he's not instinctively in tune with the 'Red Wall' and he lacks credibility when he tries to play the 'Buy British' card, because I don't think that's a policy he really believes in. I think he'll stand down within the next year, possibly replaced with Lisa Nandy. Especially if Hartlepool goes blue next month, which I think it would.
 
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Gloster

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Although it is not entirely fair, he has the same problem as Jeremy Corbyn, in that he is seen as a member of a London elite who are out of touch with much of Labour’s traditional electorate. He has also failed to produce any real opposition to the government: although the present situation does not give many opportunities, he seems to have missed most of those that there have been. He is not finished yet, even if Labour loses Hartlepool, but he has got to start making his mark soon. I personally think that Lisa Nandy would probably make a much better leader.
 

Sad Sprinter

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Although it is not entirely fair, he has the same problem as Jeremy Corbyn, in that he is seen as a member of a London elite who are out of touch with much of Labour’s traditional electorate. He has also failed to produce any real opposition to the government: although the present situation does not give many opportunities, he seems to have missed most of those that there have been. He is not finished yet, even if Labour loses Hartlepool, but he has got to start making his mark soon. I personally think that Lisa Nandy would probably make a much better leader.

He's more of a Foreign Secretary than a PM in my opinion.
 

DarloRich

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Personally, I don't. He's not being himself really, he's not instinctively in tune with the 'Red Wall' and he lacks credibility when he tries to play the 'Buy British' card, because I don't think that's a policy he really believes in. I think he'll stand down within the next year, possibly replaced with Lisa Nandy. Especially if Hartlepool goes blue next month, which I think it would.

aye - maybe we could get Corbyn back. That worked well, especially, you know, with the northern red wall.

And if Hartlpooh does turn Tory ( which it might) the question will be where has the Brexit party vote gone? Take a guess. Without the Brexit party it is very possible Hartlepool ( and others like Castleford) might have turned blue at the GE. The Labour vote in Poohls looks solidish if reduced over recent years.
 
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Busaholic

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Personally, I don't. He's not being himself really, he's not instinctively in tune with the 'Red Wall' and he lacks credibility when he tries to play the 'Buy British' card, because I don't think that's a policy he really believes in. I think he'll stand down within the next year, possibly replaced with Lisa Nandy. Especially if Hartlepool goes blue next month, which I think it would.
I always thought, of the three shortlisted, Lisa Nandy was both the most impressive, and the one most likely to win back the 'Red Wall' seats ceded to the Tories: in fact, I said as much on here, but got no agreement. Unfortunately, Keir Starmer was a foregone conclusion, purely on the basis he wasn't Corbyn, and had managed to act as DPP without being controversial i.e. nothing radical ever happened when he was in charge. Big-time lawyers always make uninspired political leaders cf Sadiq Khan.
 

DarloRich

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I always thought, of the three shortlisted, Lisa Nandy was both the most impressive, and the one most likely to win back the 'Red Wall' seats ceded to the Tories: in fact, I said as much on here, but got no agreement. Unfortunately, Keir Starmer was a foregone conclusion, purely on the basis he wasn't Corbyn, and had managed to act as DPP without being controversial i.e. nothing radical ever happened when he was in charge. Big-time lawyers always make uninspired political leaders cf Sadiq Khan.

This is an .................. interesting take. He was head of CPS when they decided not to prosecute Saville! That was fairly controversial
 
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edwin_m

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He's been dealt an unplayable hand in some ways - legacy of Corbyn, not being able to really attack the government or get much of a profile during Covid, and inheriting what is really two different parties held together by not much more than tradition. The really bold thing to do would be to strike a pack with the LibDems so each would stand aside in seats where the other party had a better chance of beating the Tories, although it's questionable whether the LibDems have that much credibility after their performance last time. If it worked it would be essentially throwing away one half of the split party, with someone like Nandy better in tune with the other half, but if they mutually agreed to adopt a proportional electoral system they could force the Tories to widen their appeal outside the narrow base they've been governing for.

That would of course annoy so many factions that it's unlikely ever to happen.
 

DarloRich

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He's been dealt an unplayable hand in some ways - legacy of Corbyn, not being able to really attack the government or get much of a profile during Covid, and inheriting what is really two different parties held together by not much more than tradition. The really bold thing to do would be to strike a pack with the LibDems so each would stand aside in seats where the other party had a better chance of beating the Tories, although it's questionable whether the LibDems have that much credibility after their performance last time. If it worked it would be essentially throwing away one half of the split party, with someone like Nandy better in tune with the other half, but if they mutually agreed to adopt a proportional electoral system they could force the Tories to widen their appeal outside the narrow base they've been governing for.

That would of course annoy so many factions that it's unlikely ever to happen.


Starmer has the job of moving Labour back to respectability. It is long road after the Corbyn clown show. Frankly the trots need rooting out and binning rather than trying to keep them on side. In Hartlepooh they have tried to set up a silly northern independence party/Corbyn fanboy project. Let them all run off and join that.
 

Busaholic

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This is an .................. interesting take. He was head of CPS when they decided not to prosecute Saville! That was fairly controversial
Sorry, mixing up DPP with CPS. Disagree that applying the status quo could be described as controversial in this country: always safest to do nothing and leave it to others. That knighthood probably costs him at least 10% of potential Labour voters. Declaring he's Camden, not Islington, made gain a few votes amongst the Hampstead crowd, but that's not where they need them!
 

Sad Sprinter

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I always thought, of the three shortlisted, Lisa Nandy was both the most impressive, and the one most likely to win back the 'Red Wall' seats ceded to the Tories: in fact, I said as much on here, but got no agreement. Unfortunately, Keir Starmer was a foregone conclusion, purely on the basis he wasn't Corbyn, and had managed to act as DPP without being controversial i.e. nothing radical ever happened when he was in charge. Big-time lawyers always make uninspired political leaders cf Sadiq Khan.

I agree. Lawyers in general often make terrible politicians. They understand everything with process and detail, but cannot offer visions and judge the mood of their voters without 'the facts'.
 

DynamicSpirit

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aye - maybe we could get Corbyn back. That worked well, especially, you know, with the northern red wall.

And if Hartlpooh does turn Tory ( which it might) the question will be where has the Brexit party vote gone? Take a guess. Without the Brexit party it is very possible Hartlepool ( and others like Castleford) might have turned blue at the GE. The Labour vote in Poohls looks solidish if reduced over recent years.

Talking of Hartlepool, the only opinion poll we have (link) puts the Tories well ahead - 49% to Labour's 42%. If that poll is correct, it implies that the Brexit Party vote has collapsed almost entirely in the Conservatives' favour, despite Brexit no longer being a major issue. Not good news for Labour or Keir Starmer (or the LibDems for that matter, who are showing up at 1%).
 

DarloRich

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Talking of Hartlepool, the only opinion poll we have (link) puts the Tories well ahead - 49% to Labour's 42%. If that poll is correct, it implies that the Brexit Party vote has collapsed almost entirely in the Conservatives' favour, despite Brexit no longer being a major issue. Not good news for Labour or Keir Starmer (or the LibDems for that matter, who are showing up at 1%).

502 voters by phone on behalf of, I think, the CWU which worries me as they were very much pro Corbyn and have an agenda of their own.

 

edwin_m

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Starmer has the job of moving Labour back to respectability.
I'm not sure that is enough.

Starmer strikes me as an intelligent and reasonable person, whose natural inclination would be to sit in the southern Remainer faction somewhere near the centre of the party. But he appears to be setting aside those beliefs to pander by words and actions to what someone in London thinks the Red/Blue Wall wants to see. That makes him come across to me as not only wrong but also insincere - an accusation that sticks readily to a lawyer.

I doubt that chasm is bridgeable unless Bozo makes an even more heinous blunder than any to date (which might be difficult even for him), or it becomes so obvious that Brexit is a disaster that even its supporters have to admit it, or perhaps if levelling up delivers nothing before the next election.
 

Gloster

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Quite difficult to speculate what might happen, expect the unexpected. Apart from Lisa Nandy, who else might have a chance?
The problem is trying to even think of other senior Labour politicians. The only one that most people may have noticed is Jonathan Ashworth, who seems to have moderately successful as Shadow Health Secretary.
 

DarloRich

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I agree. Lawyers in general often make terrible politicians. They understand everything with process and detail, but cannot offer visions and judge the mood of their voters without 'the facts'.
How do you work that out?
I'm not sure that is enough.

Starmer strikes me as an intelligent and reasonable person, whose natural inclination would be to sit in the southern Remainer faction somewhere near the centre of the party. But he appears to be setting aside those beliefs to pander by words and actions to what someone in London thinks the Red/Blue Wall wants to see. That makes him come across to me as not only wrong but also insincere - an accusation that sticks readily to a lawyer.

I doubt that chasm is bridgeable unless Bozo makes an even more heinous blunder than any to date (which might be difficult even for him), or it becomes so obvious that Brexit is a disaster that even its supporters have to admit it, or perhaps if levelling up delivers nothing before the next election.
But that's where Labour ( used to be we but it isn't anymore thanks to Clownbyn) are. They need to find respectability. Stamer is a mature, sensible, intelligent adult and his job is to try and arrest the slide and start the turn around. It will be several elections before labour can challenge. I don't think he or Labour will win an election anytime soon especially when, despite all the evidence to the contrary, despite the corruption and cronyism, despite the incompetence and despite the obvious lies large sections of the country still think Johnson is doing a good job. it is hard when voters cant see how they are being led to the result the media barons want!

Starmer is also in a tough position. As a mature, sensible, intelligent adult he can hardly oppose governmental responses to the pandemic that a mature, sensible, intelligent adult would support! The Corbyn clown army want him to oppose ANYTIHNG a Tory suggests regardless of whether it is right!
 

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Next election could prove fatal to Labour. If Hartlepool turns blue thanks to the votes of Brexit Party voters, then at the next General Election, not only would Labour lose, but it could lose its second in command if Nandy loses in Wigan. I wouldn't be surprised if Rebecca Long Bailey made a reappearance.
 

DarloRich

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Next election could prove fatal to Labour. If Hartlepool turns blue thanks to the votes of Brexit Party voters, then at the next General Election, not only would Labour lose, but it could lose its second in command if Nandy loses in Wigan. I wouldn't be surprised if Rebecca Long Bailey made a reappearance.

I don't understand how that would be "fatal". I am not sure this post makes much sense.
 

birchesgreen

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He is the right man at the wrong time, he maybe should have been leader a few years ago but now he always seems to look like a rabbit caught in the headlights.
 

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I think that any Labour leader was going to struggle during the past twelve months - people seem to have treated Covid as the kind of national emergency where you don't criticise the Government much, and Johson has (deliberately / unwittingly) steered a course that has divided opposition between "cautious people unhappy with the death tolls" and "libertarians outraged at any kind of restrictions", which hasn't left much space for opposition.

And look how craven the media have been. I remember the days when politicians had to resign over minor things - but the news that Johnson had given a six figure sum of public money to the woman he'd been having a four year affair with (whilst his wife was getting cancer treatment) barely warranted a mention on page ninety four of most newspapers - it's going to be hard for any Leader Of The Opposition to cut through in those circumstances.

The thing in Starmer's favour is that there's no realistic alternative. A Nandy isn't going to keep the left onside any better than Starmer has managed - I don't think that any of the Corbyn loyalists are going to win across the people who deserted the party in 2019.

he's not instinctively in tune with the 'Red Wall'

How many Labour leaders would you say were "instinctively in tune" with the kind of Sun reader stereotype that people now refer to as "Red Wall"?

Certainly not one of the recent ones - I don't think that Blair was either but he managed to win those seats

I don't think that our Etonian Prime Minister is going to pass the Peter Mandelson "mushy peas" / "guacamole" test either, but he seems popular enough - even if the people of places like Hartlepool don't all spend their evenings building model buses out of wine boxes...

Frankly the trots need rooting out and binning rather than trying to keep them on side. In Hartlepooh they have tried to set up a silly northern independence party/Corbyn fanboy project. Let them all run off and join that.

Agreed - funny how quickly the #GTTO ("Get The Tories Out") crowd have been happy to splinter away into several other parties rather than uniting against the current Government - this performative whippet themed "Independence" party started by a bloke in Sussex, the Trade Unionionist & Socialist Coalition, the Judean People's Front etc

It might do Starmer good to be rid of the troublemakers

That knighthood probably costs him at least 10% of potential Labour voters

I don't know - given that the way that Corbyn's "unpatriotic" associations turned off a lot of people who'd previously voted Labour, I think that the knighthood may be a good shorthand way of reassuring them that he doesn't "HATE BRITAIN" (like the way that the tabloids have portrayed previous leaders)

I agree. Lawyers in general often make terrible politicians. They understand everything with process and detail, but cannot offer visions and judge the mood of their voters without 'the facts'.

Blair seemed to do alright, so it's not always a bad thing
 

takno

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Next election could prove fatal to Labour. If Hartlepool turns blue thanks to the votes of Brexit Party voters, then at the next General Election, not only would Labour lose, but it could lose its second in command if Nandy loses in Wigan. I wouldn't be surprised if Rebecca Long Bailey made a reappearance.
Not a lot of reason to believe that Wigan would turn blue. Gaining the Brexit party votes won't actually shift things much for the Tories if any proportion of the people scared off by Corbyn return to the Labour fold.

Right now everything is about Covid. Most people seem to have bought completely into the Scientocracy approach to government, and frankly I'm not sure that either Conservative or Labour are having a great deal of influence on how the country is being run. In those circumstances politics is a bit like a beauty contest where all the contestants are ugly and there's no prize. Give it a year and we'll have a lot more questions where political positions come to the fore - a chancellor dedicated to cutting public services in an attempt to double down on failed macroeconomic approaches, high levels of joblessness and poverty, and the collapse of public-spirited necessity into huge blame game.

There isn't a lot of visible talent passion or energy in any political parties at the moment, and a lot of the public are just switched off from current affairs generally. If the interest, the issues and the challenge returns, then we might see Keir come back on form. If the Tories manage to drag the current situation out instead, and we all stay passionless, exhausted and too strung out to care, then I really don't see what the point of replacing Keir would be. Right now whoever is there it's just going to be another invisible seat-warmer effortlessly winning an pointless argument with Boris that nobody is watching.
 

DarloRich

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A Nandy isn't going to keep the left onside any better than Starmer has managed - I don't think that any of the Corbyn loyalists are going to win across the people who deserted the party in 2019.


It could be worse - it could be Richard Burgon.
 

TheBigD

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My two penneth worth...

Labour is stuck between a rock and a hard place. If labour move right on culture to appease the red wall they'll lose their metropolitan support. If they tack left to appease their metropolitan support they'll lose more of the red wall seats. The lawyer's caution in Keir thus decides to do very little to avoid upsetting anyone.

To say Keir has been underwhelming is, well, an understatement. I don't see anyone in Labour doing any better though.

Labour have managed to lose Scotland, their support is down in Wales and they haven't won a majority in England since 2003. Until they have policies that connect with the mainstream, they'll continue to lose election after election.
 
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PHILIPE

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My two penneth worth...

Labour is stuck between a rock and a hard place. If labour move right on culture to appease the red wall they'll lose their metropolitan support. If they tack left to appease their metropolitan support they'll lose more of the red wall seats. The lawyer's caution in Keir thus decides to do very little to avoid upsetting anyone.

To say Keir has been underwhelming is, well, an understatement. I don't see anyone in Labour doing any better though.

Labour have managed to lose Scotland, their support is down in Wales and they haven't won a majority in England since 2003. Until they have policies that connect with the mainstream, they'll continue to lose election after election.


Even now the hard left of Corbyn and Momentum supporters are saying they must have new radical policies to attract the voters and get the party back into power. Are they just too thick to realise or in complete denial that the electorate rejected them and their policies at the last
election. Their ideology just supersedes all reasoning. I would like a Labour Party back in power but not with the hard left baggage.
 

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In my opinion Starmer has done a very good impressio0n of the Invisible Man. Most people wouldn't recognise him if he walked by, and does he have any policies?

As to replacing him, is the country ready for another woman, after the previous two?
 

Gloster

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As to replacing him, is the country ready for another woman, after the previous two?
I don’t see why not. At least Lisa Nandy, or whoever it might be, wouldn’t be Conservative and so trying to imitate Margaret Thatcher. The number of people who would be put off voting for Labour because they have a woman leading them could well be fewer than those who would vote for the party because they do. Of course, one problem remains: are they in the marginal constituencies.
 

brad465

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Quite difficult to speculate what might happen, expect the unexpected. Apart from Lisa Nandy, who else might have a chance?
It's one thing for her to have credibility (which I believe she does), but it's another thing entirely for the membership to see that and want her or someone like her in. Remember she came third in the last contest behind both Starmer and Long-Bailey.

Whatever happens though, the pandemic has definitely made life harder for Starmer to gain any sort of traction, as well as the whole thing being a classic "rally around the leader" period, which many questioning why the Tory support is so good in this mess don't seem to realise. The best hope here is the pandemic ends relatively soon, he gets a chance to show some positive credentials, but if he doesn't there's still time to replace him if someone more credible exists.

He probably needs to stay in place until at least the party conference and at least then he can try and sell himself, and/or allow the party to decide on certain policy positions (Proportional representation seems to be a more unifying policy in the Labour party so will be a good place to start).

Even now the hard left of Corbyn and Momentum supporters are saying they must have new radical policies to attract the voters and get the party back into power. Are they just too thick to realise or in complete denial that the electorate rejected them and their policies at the last
election. Their ideology just supersedes all reasoning. I would like a Labour Party back in power but not with the hard left baggage.
I occasionally see references by his support base about how Labour got more votes in the last 2 elections led by Corbyn than any other election since, but not including, Blair's 1997 landslide. What they don't of course grasp is they may have more votes in them, but the Tory share was higher, while they need to be more pragmatic in selling their policy beliefs, not instantly dismissing anyone who doesn't agree (which definitely won't convince them to change). That said this isn't limited to the left, as people have said similar about Trump in the last election.
 
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Cowley

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As to replacing him, is the country ready for another woman, after the previous two?

Is the country ready for another man after the previous many..?
If someone’s good then they’re good regardless of gender, race, age etc.
We just need a decent opposition at this point.
 
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