Will Keir Starmer last?

[317 forever]

True, he united the party because, for the first time in years it could see a glimpse of power, the Tories were divided thanks to 'The B@$t@rd$'. I also think he would have won in '97 (almost leader would) but with a (much) smaller majority. Power seemed to go to some of Blair's ministers' heads and, crucially, they lost sight of who'd got them where they were. True, they put through some excellent legislation, but too much time was spent playing to middle England - wasn't it Worcester Woman? A 30-40 seat majority is fine, it keeps some of the potential rebels loyal but also keeps the government more focused.

The Hartlepool by-election? What has Labour ever done for Hartlepool - besides the gift of Peter Mandelson? Revenge is a dish best served cold!

In a way the rot started soon after 1997. Tony Blair talked about never been complacent but still took the heartlands for granted for having "nowhere else to go". Sure, while such voters did not defect to other parties initially they simply abstained. This led to considerably reduced turnouts, and even by 2001 to Labour getting more votes in unexpected marginals like Enfield Southgate than safe Labour areas like Sunderland.

These Labour areas supporting Brexit and now the Conservatives could even be the legacy of "New Labour" in these areas.

 

[Bevan Price]

As my grandad used to say at times like this “deputy heads will roll”

And today, even when things go well for Labour (winning the West Yorkshire mayoral election) there’s a potentially negative consequence (a by-election in Batley and Spen). If there’s a repeat of Hartlepool it’ll be open season on Starmer.

Labour has become an uneasy mixture - almost two separate parties, one of dreamers who want to control everything (by nationalisation, etc. - the far left), and - the other - moderates who believe in some kind of social equality of opportunity, without the need to own everything, but who, in recent years, have been unable to devise policies that get enough public interest / approval. Can there ever be a solution ?? Neither side can get enough votes to win elections; the far left, although slowly diminishing, are unlikely to compromise enough to let Labour appear to be a united, electable party.

Is the time approaching for Labour to split officially into two separate parties, in the hope that at least one half can start to gain enough support - over a number of years - to become electable ?

 

[brad465]

Dodds has been demoted from Shadow Chancellor to take Rayner's party chair role; Rayner now will face up to Michael Gove in the Commons having been given the Shadow Cabinet Secretary, which was Rachel Reeves role, who herself has been promoted to fill Shadow Chancellor. There are some other minor shadow minister changes, but otherwise that looks about it.

 

[317 forever]

Dodds has been demoted from Shadow Chancellor to take Rayner's party chair role; Rayner now will face up to Michael Gove in the Commons having been given the Shadow Cabinet Secretary, which was Rachel Reeves role, who herself has been promoted to fill Shadow Chancellor. There are some other minor shadow minister changes, but otherwise that looks about it.

As far as I can tell, we have otherwise just had Nick Brown step down and Wes Streeting become a shadow minister for the first time. Given that he uniquely won for Labour in 2015 a constituency that was Conservative in 2005, he deserved this. (The constituency is Ilford North by the way).

 

[Butts]

Dodds has been demoted from Shadow Chancellor to take Rayner's party chair role; Rayner now will face up to Michael Gove in the Commons having been given the Shadow Cabinet Secretary, which was Rachel Reeves role, who herself has been promoted to fill Shadow Chancellor. There are some other minor shadow minister changes, but otherwise that looks about it.

Thank the lord for that, the whining Aberdonian will not be missed.

Rachel Reeves is a far more attractive proposition.

 

[TravelDream]

This is a chart showing the seats (not vote!) gained/ lost by each opposition party leader at their first local elections as leader.

1995 was Tony Blair's first local elections and was the strongest in the last 30 years for a new leader. He went on to a landslide election two years later in 97.
These results don't always indicate the future though. Ed Miliband managed a 9% increase in 2011 and he then went on to lose the 2015 general election and Willian Hague managed 6% in 1998 and lost in a landslide to Labour in 2001. On the other side of the coin, Corbyn managed -1% in 2016 and he went on to have a pretty decent election a year later increasing Labour's vote to the highest share since 1997, but not quite enough to win.

This surely has to be worrying for Labour?
Though arguably these are also Johnson's first local elections and he is in a joint honeymoon/ Covid bounce period.

 

[brad465]

This is a chart showing the seats (not vote!) gained/ lost by each opposition party leader at their first local elections as leader.

1995 was Tony Blair's first local elections and was the strongest in the last 30 years for a new leader. He went on to a landslide election two years later in 97.
These results don't always indicate the future though. Ed Miliband managed a 9% increase in 2011 and he then went on to lose the 2015 general election and Willian Hague managed 6% in 1998 and lost in a landslide to Labour in 2001. On the other side of the coin, Corbyn managed -1% in 2016 and he went on to have a pretty decent election a year later increasing Labour's vote to the highest share since 1997, but not quite enough to win.

This surely has to be worrying for Labour?
Though arguably these are also Johnson's first local elections and he is in a joint honeymoon/ Covid bounce period.

While Labour should have done better, these are definitely not normal times and a true comparison can't be made, given Covid effects and to a lesser extent right now Brexit, although this being a previous cross-party issue but recently parties realigning to match it means it's been a major twister. When Covid hopefully eases away then we'll see what happens, but Labour will need to call out Brexit failings to stand a chance of future gains (in parts of Kent impacted by lorry parks/checks there was a swing to Labour and Greens in councillors).

 

[Typhoon]

This is a chart showing the seats (not vote!) gained/ lost by each opposition party leader at their first local elections as leader.

1995 was Tony Blair's first local elections and was the strongest in the last 30 years for a new leader. He went on to a landslide election two years later in 97.

1995 was the year when the divisions in the Tories over Europe had developed to such an extent that Major felt the need to resign as party leader to trigger a leadership election.

People don't vote for divided parties, and governments tend to win or lose elections, not oppositions.

 

[takno]

This is a chart showing the seats (not vote!) gained/ lost by each opposition party leader at their first local elections as leader.

1995 was Tony Blair's first local elections and was the strongest in the last 30 years for a new leader. He went on to a landslide election two years later in 97.
These results don't always indicate the future though. Ed Miliband managed a 9% increase in 2011 and he then went on to lose the 2015 general election and Willian Hague managed 6% in 1998 and lost in a landslide to Labour in 2001. On the other side of the coin, Corbyn managed -1% in 2016 and he went on to have a pretty decent election a year later increasing Labour's vote to the highest share since 1997, but not quite enough to win.

This surely has to be worrying for Labour?
Though arguably these are also Johnson's first local elections and he is in a joint honeymoon/ Covid bounce period.

What I'm reading, apart from the "@LeftieStats" name of the twitter account that produced it, which makes me pretty inclined to ignore it entirely, is that performance in first council elections after becoming leader is a data point which is entirely uncorrelated with performance in the subsequent general election. Overall I wouldn't say it it's keeping me awake at night, no.

 

[Typhoon]

Interesting decision to appoint Shabana Mahmood as Labour Party National Campaign Co-ordinator; confident, female, from an ethnic minority, massive majority (so can probably get around the country at election time), anti-Corbyn, barrister. Whether she is the answer in the north, I don't know. Could be the making or braking of her.

 

[brad465]

Interesting decision to appoint Shabana Mahmood as Labour Party National Campaign Co-ordinator; confident, female, from an ethnic minority, massive majority (so can probably get around the country at election time), anti-Corbyn, barrister. Whether she is the answer in the north, I don't know. Could be the making or braking of her.

He's also appointed Deborah Mattinson to be new head of strategy for the party, where she wrote a book about why Labour lost much of the so-called red wall, having spoken to voters in the said area as sources for the book's content, so if Shabana isn't the answer, we'd hope Deborah is.