Will Labour scrap the £2 fare Cap? (now confirmed will rise to £3)

[HSTEd]

How does that change the point that adding another reflationary policy in the form of an increase in fuel duty would cause a knock-on effect of a further increase to the price of goods and services?

I don't follow the logic that an inflationary policy of increase fuel duty would be somehow less undesirable because other inflationary policies also exist. This is clearely a logical fallacy.

Because this is a budget that clearly isn't particularly worried about inflation.
If it was worried about inflation it wouldn't have done a huge pile of other inflationary things.

The inflationary impact of fuel duty is also mitigated by the fact that tax rises are inherently deflationary.
The state increasing effective taxation on goods reduces the effective amount of purchasing power chasing said goods because it is diverted to the state instead.

 

[The exile]

OBR says growth will be 1.8% in 2026 and inflation will be 2.3%. The country is just on a steep decline and getting poorer and

1.8% in real terms (ie over and above inflation if I’m not mistaken)

 

[yorksrob]

Because rail inflation affects a far smaller proportion of the country, whereas increasing the cost of transporting goods affects everyone?

But the disparity between the two is surely disproportionately affecting those of us who use the trains ?

I have not made any such claim.

But realistically, the billions not collected due to the fuel price freeze means that other areas have to be hit with disproportionately high inflationary increases ?

 

[DC1989]

1.8% in real terms (ie over and above inflation if I’m not mistaken)

Ahhh - ok thanks for correcting

 

[Dent]

Because this is a budget that clearly isn't particularly worried about inflation.
If it was worried about inflation it wouldn't have done a huge pile of other inflationary things.

The inflationary impact of fuel duty is also mitigated by the fact that tax rises are inherently deflationary.
The state increasing effective taxation on goods reduces the effective amount of purchasing power chasing said goods because it is diverted to the state instead.

How does any of this absolve those calling for an increase to fuel duties of the responsibility to think through the consequences of what they are calling for and care about the harm their proposal would cause?

 

[JonathanH]

But the disparity between the two is surely disproportionately affecting those of us who use the trains ?

One slight issue is that subsidy for buses and railways requires payments out from the Treasury, spending, while the freezing of fuel duty is just collecting less revenue. Those two things are presumably seen quite differently.

How does any of this absolve those calling for an increase to fuel duties of the responsibility to think through the consequences of what they are calling for and care about the harm their proposal would cause?

The use of cars with internal combustion engines is clearly also harmful. This is one of the points made about "green" policies that the implementation of them involves unpopular decisions, even though they are for the common good.

 

[A S Leib]

July RPI plus 1% then. Obviously that is only the regulated fares that are restricted to a 4.6% increase.

And (I should have done this to start with) mods, can this be moved to a different thread? It doesn't have much to do with the bus fare cap.

 

[Cowley]

And (I should have done this to start with) mods, can this be moved to a different thread? It doesn't have much to do with the bus fare cap.

Yes. I’ve moved a load of stuff into the Labour Party thread now, so if everyone can keep this one specifically for discussing the bus fare price cap then that would be much appreciated!

 

[Mark J]

I just think the rise to £3 will undo a lot of the good work in trying to get people to use the buses more.

I can seriously see some bus routes getting the chop, or having frequencies/last buses reduced.

 

[1955LR]

Its interesting that my local bus operator pulled out of the £2 cap scheme years ago, I wonder if they will join again now it has risen to £3

 

[WelshBluebird]

Now that the fare is to be raised to £3, I will no longer be using the bus as often (when this increase occurs). Some routes just aren't worth £3 - or more.

But the cap isn't a flat £3 fare, it's a cap. Operators are more than able to offer fares less than £3. The reason the £2 cap became more of a flat fare it a lot of areas is that apart from child fares and the odd three stop hop ticket, there were no fares less than £2. Looking at Reading, before the cap their single fare on the Reading zone was already £2 for example (or an extra 10p of paying the driver). Why would that fare suddenly go to £3?

 

[Man of Kent]

But the cap isn't a flat £3 fare, it's a cap. Operators are more than able to offer fares less than £3. The reason the £2 cap became more of a flat fare it a lot of areas is that apart from child fares and the odd three stop hop ticket, there were no fares less than £2. Looking at Reading, before the cap their single fare on the Reading zone was already £2 for example (or an extra 10p of paying the driver). Why would that fare suddenly go to £3?

Quite. All the previous terms and conditions have limited shadow single fare increases to RPI, and this was also mentioned in the government press release for the £3 cap. So even if Reading's shadow single was now £2.50, it cannot increase it by more than RPI, which is a bit less than 3% per annum at the moment.

 

[Starmill]

But the cap isn't a flat £3 fare, it's a cap. Operators are more than able to offer fares less than £3. The reason the £2 cap became more of a flat fare it a lot of areas is that apart from child fares and the odd three stop hop ticket, there were no fares less than £2. Looking at Reading, before the cap their single fare on the Reading zone was already £2 for example (or an extra 10p of paying the driver). Why would that fare suddenly go to £3?

Because they can get away with using the government intervention as cover? Surely it's plainly obvious.

 

[158756]

Quite. All the previous terms and conditions have limited shadow single fare increases to RPI, and this was also mentioned in the government press release for the £3 cap. So even if Reading's shadow single was now £2.50, it cannot increase it by more than RPI, which is a bit less than 3% per annum at the moment.

Presumably that was intended to stop companies gaming the system by hiking fares no one was paying to get more money out of the government. But if a £2.30 fare goes up to £3 that makes no difference to the government because it's still not over the cap. Companies were allowed to get rid of any fare below £2 regardless of RPI, I doubt it'll be different for £3.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Because they can get away with using the government intervention as cover? Surely it's plainly obvious.

But people aren't that dumb and would kick off.

The only operators who may well do that are those where the price before the cap was close to £3 anyway and so who could legitimately argue that had the cap not been in place inflation and the like would have pushed it upto £3 anyway.

For those who had tickets closer to £2 before the cap, I just don't see how they can do that without kicking up a massive stink which they won't want to do.

 

[Starmill]

How does any of this absolve those calling for an increase to fuel duties of the responsibility to think through the consequences of what they are calling for and care about the harm their proposal would cause?

Most people aren't calling for increases in fuel duty. Just for it to stay flat in real terms.

Prices for motor fuels have come down markedly recently and it's a bad signal to send because it encourages people to waste it, despite the seriousness of the damage burning it is causing.

But people aren't that dumb and would kick off.

People do that anyway. What are they gonna do, not use the bus any more? Who's going to be bothered by that?

 

[Deerfold]

My mistake, I was under the impression the £2 fare was a UK-wide thing rather than just applicable to England.

Realistically however, you’re very naïve if you think the £3 cap will be anything other than a flat fare in the same way as the £2 cap effectively became a flat fare. Certainly on my travels within South Yorkshire and Derbyshire, whenever I’ve stated a destination to a driver the response has always been “Two pounds please”.

A similar thing happened with the Sheffield Supertram when it was taken back into public ownership by the South Yorkshire Mayor Oliver Coppard earlier this year. The first thing he did was put the Supertram single fare up from £2 to £2.80 but instead of announcing it as a 40% fare increase, claimed it was a £2.80 fare cap! Few people were fooled.

I regularly travel from Sheffield centre to Hillsborough, a journey of about 2 miles that takes 10-15 minutes. At present I take the bus as it’s 80p cheaper than the tram but once the new £3 bus fare comes in it looks like I’ll be walking at least one way. £6 to travel 4 miles (ie there and back) is a bit of a rip off whichever way you look at it.

You may be interested to know that Supertram does a day ticket for £5 on the app. If you use more than 1 a week, you may find their bundle of 5 for £20 useful.

A Sheffield First Day is £5.20. An any operator ticker is £5.60 or a pack of 5 to be used in a month for £26.

 

[Mark J]

But the cap isn't a flat £3 fare, it's a cap. Operators are more than able to offer fares less than £3. The reason the £2 cap became more of a flat fare it a lot of areas is that apart from child fares and the odd three stop hop ticket, there were no fares less than £2. Looking at Reading, before the cap their single fare on the Reading zone was already £2 for example (or an extra 10p of paying the driver). Why would that fare suddenly go to £3?

It is pretty obvious that when the cap goes up to £3, most bus operators will charge £3.

With Reading buses. The 'all day' SimplyReading zone used to be £3.50 if purchased from the driver, (£3.40 if purchased on the app). Last month the price was increased to £4.50 if purchased from the driver, £4.00 if purchased through the app, or using the tap on, tap off system.

Reading was one of the cheapest places in the country for an 'all day' ticket, before the rise.

The 4/x4 (Reading to Wokingham/Bracknell) bus service will become more expensive and therefore more uncompetitive, compared to SWR once these price rises come in. At present they are comparable. If anyone doesn't think that Reading buses won't charge £3 single between Reading and Bracknell, are seriously kidding themselves.

Currently I can do Earley to Bracknell on SWR (with railcard) for £3.10 return with an 'Evening out', or 'Sunday Out' ticket. Compared to £4 return by the 4/x4 and a potential £6 return next year. Even with rail fare increases next year, it will still be vastly cheaper.

Not to mention 20 minutes by train Vs the near 1hr by bus.

I can also forsee the Carousel 850 bus service cutting back on the later night services. It has been a blessing that later services were introduced when they gave up the 800 route.

 

[WelshBluebird]

It is pretty obvious that when the cap goes up to £3, most bus operators will charge £3.

No it isn't.

With Reading buses. The 'all day' SimplyReading zone used to be £3.50 if purchased from the driver, (£3.40 if purchased on the app). Last month the price was increased to £4.50 if purchased from the driver, £4.00 if purchased through the app, or using the tap on, tap off system.
Reading was one of the cheapest places on the country for an 'all day' ticket, before the rise.

What does any of that have to do with the price of a single ticket? That before the cap was £2.10.

The 4/x4 (Reading to Wokingham/Bracknell) bus service will become more expensive and therefore more uncompetitive, compared to SWR once these price rises come in. At present they are comparable.

Currently I can do Earley to Bracknell on SWR (with railcard) for £3.10 return with an 'Evening out', or 'Sunday Out' ticket. Compared to £4 return by the 4/x4 and a potential £6 return next year. Even with rail fare increases next year, it will still be vastly cheaper.

Having long routes that go between different urban areas as part of the £2 cap was always a bit bonkers anyway imo. Its the same in the west country where you can get from Bristol to yeovil for £2. It makes sense for short distances, but not for longer ones.

Urban short distances were generally already around the cap anyway (Bristol was already a £2 flat fare, and as I've said above Reading was £2.10). It's really the rural short distance journeys the cap should be aimed at, which it still will be with the £3 cap.

As far as the competition with rail - the way I see it bus and rail should complement each other not compete!

 

[Mark J]

No it isn't.

I disagree.

Many will charge the maximum they can get away with.

As for 'bonkers' to charge £2 for longer distances.

At least it got paying 'bums on seats', which is preferable to 'no bums on seats' and thus no money.

 

[WelshBluebird]

I disagree.

Many will charge the maximum they can get away with.

An operator who was charging £2 before the cap is not going to jump to £3 just because that is what the cap goes upto. If they were, they would have been charging that amount before the cap in the first place.

As I said earlier, operstors who were chariging a bit more (say £2.70) may well end up going to £3 because once you take into account inflation that £2.70 fare would probably be £3 today anyway, but once who weren't charging anywhere near £3 aren't going to suddenly decide to when they weren't before.

As for bonkers to charge £2 for longer distances.

At least it got 'bums on seats', which is preferable to 'no bums on seats'.

It depends if that is costing money that could be better spent on transport provision in the area more broadly. I.e. in your specific example is the overly cheap bus price just siphoning passengers away from rail (rather than away from driving?).

 

[Mark J]

An operator who was charging £2 before the cap is not going to jump to £3 just because that is what the cap goes upto. If they were, they would have been charging that amount before the cap in the first place.

As I said earlier, operstors who wwee chariging a bit more (say £2.70) may well end up going to £3 because once you take into account inflation that £2.70 fare would probably be £3 today anyway, but once who weren't charging anywhere near £3 aren't going to suddenly decide to when they weren't before.

It depends if that is costing money that could be better spent on transport provision in the area more broadly. I.e. in your specific example is the overly cheap bus price just siphoning passengers away from rail (rather than away from driving?).

We'll agree to disagree then.

 

[DDB]

There are already operators in the cap scheme charging less than £2 for some singles. If they aren't charging £2 now they won't start charging £3 in January.

 

[mangad]

Right. Let's be frank about this. Fares are a factor in people using buses. Not the only one but a factor.

And every bus company knows this. There's prices that people will pay. And there's prices people won't pay.

Realistically some bus companies may try to inflate fares to £3 when once they. They will either find this works for them. Or they will find it really doesn't.

Other companies won't take the risk. Probably because they know their customer base.

The sensible operators probably will look at their previous fares, look at their customers and make a call on what they think will work for them. The not very sensible ones will try to make a day fast buck.

So there we are. The only questions are how many will be in each group.
And we can speculate that until the cows come home but we won't actually know for a while.

 

[Mark J]

There are already operators in the cap scheme charging less than £2 for some singles. If they aren't charging £2 now they won't start charging £3 in January.

The majority of bus companies I've used in the last few years do charge £2 single fare. The only time you get less than £2 is when traveling in a specific region of a town.

In Reading, this is on the 5/6 routes solely in Whitley, or 13/14 routes solely in Woodley areas.

 

[Andyh82]

They are pretty much shielded from complaints now though

Previously if they’d put a fare up, they’d get it in the neck, now due to all the press coverage most people think it’s the government which has put up the fare to £3

The fact it’s a cap and not a flat fare is a detail that will be lost on most people

Especially if otherwise they’d be charging something like £2.70/£2.80, you might as well just pocket the additional 20/30p and charge £3

 

[Mark J]

Right. Let's be frank about this. Fares are a factor in people using buses. Not the only one but a factor.

And every bus company knows this. There's prices that people will pay. And there's prices people won't pay.

Realistically some bus companies may try to inflate fares to £3 when once they. They will either find this works for them. Or they will find it really doesn't.

Other companies won't take the risk. Probably because they know their customer base.

The sensible operators probably will look at their previous fares, look at their customers and make a call on what they think will work for them. The not very sensible ones will try to make a day fast buck.

So there we are. The only questions are how many will be in each group.
And we can speculate that until the cows come home but we won't actually know for a while.

In Reading area, the 4/x4 was uncompetitive price and time wise, compared to the SWR rail service pre £2 ticket caps. Hence why I never used to use it.

When the £2 fare cap came in, I was prepared to stomach the longer journey times due to the cheaper price. If, and when this goes up to £3 single (£6 return), i'll just go back to solely using SWR instead.

It is the same with the x40 Reading to Oxford Service. £4 return for an hour and a half journey each way is acceptable. When this increases, it will be uncompetitive compared to GWR price and time wise, who will get you there in less than half an hour each way.

The beauty of the £2 fare is that it made bus services more attractive, despite the vastly longer journey times.

 

[WelshBluebird]

The majority of bus companies I've used in the last few years do charge £2 single fare. The only time you get less than £2 is when traveling in a specific region of a town.

But how many of those operators had sub £2 fares beforehand?

The only sub £2 fares I've seen withdrawn are 3 stop hop fares which some operators were withdrawing due to abuse anyway.

 

[DDB]

The majority of bus companies I've used in the last few years do charge £2 single fare. The only time you get less than £2 is when traveling in a specific region of a town.

In Reading this is on the 5/6 routes in Whitley, or 13/14 routes in Woodley areas.

So by your own admission they didn't put up fares that were less than £2 up to £2 when the cap came in. So why do you think they will put up any fares that would be between £2 and £3 up to £3 under the new cap?

 

[Ghostbus]

It somehow makes it so much worse that the rise in the minimum wage (77p an hour for adults) only kicks in a full three months after this £2 fare is withdrawn. And that they have clearly reduced that rise compared to the previous two years (£1.02 last year, £0.92 the year before) to pay for other stuff. Just not this £2 fare scheme.