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Wisbech-March line reopening cost increase to £200m

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Midnight Sun

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In The Cambs Times https://www.cambstimes.co.uk/news/plenty-of-ifs-in-200m-fenland-rail-link-proposals-1-6543479

Note that only seven of the level crossings are on public roads, the rest are farm crossings.

The £200m projected cost of re-instating the seven-mile long line to March is dwarfed by the expected £800m needed to modernise rail infrastructure in Ely if it is to take twice hourly direct services from Wisbech into Cambridge.

The report recommends ditching cheaper options for Wisbech to March such as a guided busway (£75m) or a train-tram (£152m). A busway shuttle was described as "poor value for money" and rail only was the best option as it has "a much more certain and lower risk delivery path".

An update on a £1.5m business case for the Wisbech-March line was published this week offers 10 options for a station in Wisbech but favours one near the town centre.

The report - by Mott Macdonald - supports Network Rail's conclusion that all 22 existing level crossings between March and Wisbech will be closed.

And all 39 crossings between March and Cambridge will require risk assessments to ensure they can cope with the extra rail services.

It could mean replacing these with bridges, says Mott Macdonald in their study commissioned by the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Combined Authority.

The consultants are critical of Network Rail for holding up work on the rail infrastructure between March and Wisbech.

Throughout 2019 neither the combined authority, the county council or Mott Macdonald were able to "progress engagement with Network Rail significantly, despite repeated attempts to do so.

"This has hindered delivery of the project relative to its original anticipated completely date of April 2020".

If the money is found to open the line it is likely that initially there would be two trains operating hourly from Wisbech to March but only one of them would be a through train to Cambridge. It could take a further ten years for half hourly, 45-minute trips from Wisbech to Cambridge become possible.

A new platform at the West End of the old platform three at March would be re-instated and a passing loop built at Coldham.
 
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krus_aragon

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That thread title could probably do with an 'm' after the '₤200'...

If not: I'll chip in half the price if someone else will join me!
 

yorksrob

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I get the distinct impression that NR itself is a barrier to the expansion of the network.

Ultimately any new line is just more to maintain to them.
 

lordbusiness

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Is the March- Wisbech line a viable option or just a local pipe dream?. It just seems any local politician who wants to get his name in the paper only has to propose reopening a railway line.
Recently I've heard our local MP proposing direct services from Dereham to Norwich and Cambridge and another County Councillor proposing reopening a long gone station somewhere in the boonies between Norwich and Diss.
 

yorksrob

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What, by costing things properly?

"Throughout 2019 neither the combined authority, the county council or Mott Macdonald were able to "progress engagement with Network Rail significantly, despite repeated attempts to do so"

It looks like hoping things go away before anyone attempts to even cost anything.
 

Class 170101

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I get the distinct impression that NR itself is a barrier to the expansion of the network.

Ultimately any new line is just more to maintain to them.

Didn't the DfT think that about NR as well regards East West Rail?
 

jayah

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I get the distinct impression that NR itself is a barrier to the expansion of the network.

Ultimately any new line is just more to maintain to them.
Worth noting at £200m for 7 miles, HS2 would have cost £9.6bn.

This is a branch line with no tunnels on an existing formation that carried trains not that long ago.
 

MadCommuter

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Replacing the level crossings with bridges must account for a significant portion of the costs?
 

Bald Rick

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As predicted almost exactly 2 years ago...

The other two, I’m afraid, have capital costs that are built on some very, very brave assumptions. They wouldn't pass the costs test. Albeit I know that the Cambridgeshire / Peterboro’ local authority is committing cash to look into Wisbech; however they are likely to be in for a shock when those assumptions come home to roost.
 

158756

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Replacing the level crossings with bridges must account for a significant portion of the costs?

It must yes. The railway has effectively priced itself out of the market for any significant expansion. In the level crossing aspect we expect a branch line to Wisbech to be built to higher standards than the ECML.
 

jayah

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It must yes. The railway has effectively priced itself out of the market for any significant expansion. In the level crossing aspect we expect a branch line to Wisbech to be built to higher standards than the ECML.
At £7,000 for every man, woman and child in Wisbech the £200m looks to be.

The £1bn figure would be not far short of paying to abandon the town completely and build a brand new home in Ely or Cambridge for every single family.
 

Bald Rick

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It must yes. The railway has effectively priced itself out of the market for any significant expansion. In the level crossing aspect we expect a branch line to Wisbech to be built to higher standards than the ECML.

New automatic level crossings on highways cost around £4m+ each, and also cost a not insignificant sum to operate, repair, inspect and maintain each year. This is compared to a one off for a new highway bridge (in that part of the world) of around £10m-12m, and effectively nil operating cost. With a much better safety and reliability record.

Whilst the upfront cost is higher with bridges, the business case will be better also.

This all assumes bridges are the answer. Some of them would surely be closed and diverted by short sections of new road where this is cheaper.

That’s if this happens. Personally I doubt it. As ever, when properly tested against alternatives (eg a high frequency, non stop, free, electric bus service to March) the alternative smay well come out rather well...
 

tbtc

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The £200m projected cost of re-instating the seven-mile long line to March is dwarfed by the expected £800m needed to modernise rail infrastructure in Ely if it is to take twice hourly direct services from Wisbech into Cambridge

...and yet people will keep saying that "HS2 is bad because the costs keep going up"... funny how the same folk don't get as angry about increasing costs on almost every other project though.

Ultimately, it doesn't really matter how ridiculous the cost of a two-hourly service through a fairly empty part of the countryside gets - the faithful will insist that it's a good idea at any cost

It must yes. The railway has effectively priced itself out of the market for any significant expansion. In the level crossing aspect we expect a branch line to Wisbech to be built to higher standards than the ECML.

Brand new lines (and this would be treated as a brand new line) have to be built to current standards - existing lines can retain things that wouldn't be permitted or would be strongly discouraged - on new builds (level crossings/ platforms that have significant curves/ barrow crossings etc) - but similarly a new build bungalow would have to be built to higher standards than Buckingham Palace - grandfather rights can protect existing things (sometimes forever, sometimes indefinitely) but you can't get away with such things on a brand new railway/ house/ whatever.
 

158756

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Brand new lines (and this would be treated as a brand new line) have to be built to current standards - existing lines can retain things that wouldn't be permitted or would be strongly discouraged - on new builds (level crossings/ platforms that have significant curves/ barrow crossings etc) - but similarly a new build bungalow would have to be built to higher standards than Buckingham Palace - grandfather rights can protect existing things (sometimes forever, sometimes indefinitely) but you can't get away with such things on a brand new railway/ house/ whatever.

A new bungalow wouldn't bankrupt the country though. The rate of inflation on the railway is absurd. That applies to running costs, improvements to existing lines, reopenings, HS2, everything. We already approach reopenings essentially with the view that railways are a thing of the past, not a viable mode of transport for the 21st century. HS2 is the best brand new line we can think of and has been (still is in the case of Phase 2) under serious threat of cancellation because the costs are out of control. The existing network needs massive investment to cope with the demands of climate change, carbon targets etc. If nothing changes a lot of questions are going to be asked about the existence of railways at all in much of the country.
 

Bald Rick

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A new bungalow wouldn't bankrupt the country though. The rate of inflation on the railway is absurd. That applies to running costs, improvements to existing lines, reopenings, HS2, everything. We already approach reopenings essentially with the view that railways are a thing of the past, not a viable mode of transport for the 21st century. HS2 is the best brand new line we can think of and has been (still is in the case of Phase 2) under serious threat of cancellation because the costs are out of control. The existing network needs massive investment to cope with the demands of climate change, carbon targets etc. If nothing changes a lot of questions are going to be asked about the existence of railways at all in much of the country.

The same applies to almost all types of new infrastructure*, where construction inflation has been running at 2-3 times the level of consumer price inflation for decades. Largely because building infrastructure is labour intensive, engineering intensive, and energy intensive. Add in extra specification for safety, or reliability, or whole life cost, or various other factors, and it is a lot more expensive.

For example, Manchester airport’s 2nd runway was £172m 20 years ago. Heathrow’s third runway, if built, will be about 100 times as much.
 

Midnight Sun

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That’s if this happens. Personally I doubt it. As ever, when properly tested against alternatives (eg a high frequency, non stop, free, electric bus service to March) the alternative smay well come out rather well...

Projected Train Journey Time 12 minutes, 1 stop

Current Bus Journey Timetabled to take (8 stops) 40 minuites, over slow narrow bad road. Infact often takes 50 to 55 minuites due to traffic on the last mile into Wisbich. First bus does not arrive at March station until after the 8.08am has departed,. Last bus back to Wisbich leaves at 5.10pm. The first bus is also a school bus to Neal Wade school, So only runs on school days. And people wonder why the locals want their rail service back.
 

jopsuk

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There's no clear site for the new station, the costing is for no level crossings in flat country (so no embankments or cuttings to use to help bridges) - at least one bridge will be required within Wisbech itself. Whilst it's not that long since it had limited freight use, for passenger use the entire line will need to be lifted and the formation investigated/rebuilt, especially all the small bridges over ditches and drains that are common in the fens.
 

MadCommuter

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Projected Train Journey Time 12 minutes, 1 stop

Current Bus Journey Timetabled to take (8 stops) 40 minuites, over slow narrow bad road. Infact often takes 50 to 55 minuites due to traffic on the last mile into Wisbich. First bus does not arrive at March station until after the 8.08am has departed,. Last bus back to Wisbich leaves at 5.10pm. The first bus is also a school bus to Neal Wade school, So only runs on school days. And people wonder why the locals want their rail service back.

Perhaps this reflects the amount of subsidy required to support any form of public transport provision.
 

Spartacus

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Projected Train Journey Time 12 minutes, 1 stop

Current Bus Journey Timetabled to take (8 stops) 40 minuites, over slow narrow bad road. Infact often takes 50 to 55 minuites due to traffic on the last mile into Wisbich. First bus does not arrive at March station until after the 8.08am has departed,. Last bus back to Wisbich leaves at 5.10pm. The first bus is also a school bus to Neal Wade school, So only runs on school days. And people wonder why the locals want their rail service back.

A direct bus would take about 20 minutes to the centre of Wisbech (any station would likely be 10 minutes walk from the town centre) and be many millions cheaper than reinstating the train.
 

Bald Rick

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Projected Train Journey Time 12 minutes, 1 stop

Current Bus Journey Timetabled to take (8 stops) 40 minuites, over slow narrow bad road. Infact often takes 50 to 55 minuites due to traffic on the last mile into Wisbich. First bus does not arrive at March station until after the 8.08am has departed,. Last bus back to Wisbich leaves at 5.10pm. The first bus is also a school bus to Neal Wade school, So only runs on school days. And people wonder why the locals want their rail service back.

But that’s my point. Of course people want a rail service (or more accurately, a better public transport service) when the current provision is so poor. But £200m is a lot of taxpayers money. So you must examine alternative ways of acheieving similar benefit, to be sure that the proposal (railway in this case) is the best option.

Therefore an option of providing a frequent bus service (say every 15 minutes), all day (say 0600-midnight), with a long term commitment (say 10 years), non-stop March - Wisbech (as the train would be), possibly with electric buses. I’d guess that the bus could do it consistently in 25 minutes - yes longer than the train, but at least twice the frequency. Make it free for people holding a rail ticket to/from March, and a reasonably low fare for others.

That would be significantly cheaper to provide than a DMU shuttle on the branch on operational cost alone. It would certainly be lower carbon on a whole life basis. And you wouldn’t need to spend £200m up front.

I’t not suggesting this is the right answer, just that the problem is a transport problem, and the answer doesn’t have to be Rail, and all realistic options should be considered.
 

DarloRich

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I get the distinct impression that NR itself is a barrier to the expansion of the network.

Ultimately any new line is just more to maintain to them.

Yeah. Bound to be that. I mean it wouldn't be that new lines built to modern standards (and this is a new line regardless of the noise) require a lot more work than people here will ever acknowledge would it?

In the level crossing aspect we expect a branch line to Wisbech to be built to higher standards than the ECML.

Incorrect: We expect new railway lines to be built to the standard required for new railway lines in 2020 NOT railway lines built in 1840.
 

yorksrob

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Yeah. Bound to be that. I mean it wouldn't be that new lines built to modern standards ( and this is a new line regardless of the noise) require a lot more work than people here will ever acknowledge would it?



Incorrect: We expect new railway lines to be built to the standard required for new railway lines in 2020 NOT railway lines built in 1840.

Well, why would you expect a 75mph branch line to be built to the same standard as a new high speed one ? And if the rule is no level crossings, then that's the same standard in terms of level crossings as a new high speed line.

It's ludicrous.

Also, if an old church falls into dereliction, then someone does it up again, they're not expected to demolish and rebuild the fabric of the building from scratch - the old walls and roof effectively have 'grandfather rights', yet when reinstating a railway line, we have to build it as new. It's ludicrous.

When it comes to having an open mind about new routes, I wouldn't trust NR as far as I could throw it.
 

DarloRich

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Well, why would you expect a 75mph branch line to be built to the same standard as a new high speed one ? And if the rule is no level crossings, then that's the same standard in terms of level crossings as a new high speed line.

It's ludicrous.

Also, if an old church falls into dereliction, then someone does it up again, they're not expected to demolish and rebuild the fabric of the building from scratch - the old walls and roof effectively have 'grandfather rights', yet when reinstating a railway line, we have to build it as new. It's ludicrous.

It is clear you have no idea about the rules pertaining to the restoration of historic buildings! Luckily I have been involved in the restoration of a listed church building so do.


I wouldn't trust NR as far as I could throw it.

And I would trust your knowledge about railways and construction even less.
 

trebor79

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Perhaps the standard required for new railway lines is over the top and needs revisiting?
There's been lots of noise about the Great Western electrification costs going way over budget, in part because of new modern standards over minimum clearances for the centenary. But the old standards are demonstrably perfectly safe.
Whilst I can understand reticence to install new AHBs, surely fully gated crossings with CCTV or obstacle detection eliminate most of the risk associated with level crossings?

I'm sure there's a wider debate to be had within the industry about whether the standards for new lines are appropriate, especially for relatively low frequency low speed line such as this.
 

yorksrob

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It is clear you have no idea about the rules pertaining to the restoration of historic buildings! Luckily I have been involved in the restoration of a listed church building so do.




And I would trust your knowledge about railways and construction even less.

Really, and may I ask whether you were required to rebuild the fabric of that listed building, i.e the walls and roof from scratch ?

Please tell me, I'm looking forward to finding out ?
 

DarloRich

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Perhaps the standard required for new railway lines is over the top and needs revisiting?
There's been lots of noise about the Great Western electrification costs going way over budget, in part because of new modern standards over minimum clearances for the centenary. But the old standards are demonstrably perfectly safe.
Whilst I can understand reticence to install new AHBs, surely fully gated crossings with CCTV or obstacle detection eliminate most of the risk associated with level crossings?

I'm sure there's a wider debate to be had within the industry about whether the standards for new lines are appropriate, especially for relatively low frequency low speed line such as this.

I agree entirely. However, until that standard is changed railways must be costed and built to the existing standard. Whining that costs money is pointless and something i have no time for. That it is the difference between the real world and the fantasy world.
 

yorksrob

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I agree entirely. However, until that standard is changed railways must be costed and built to the existing standard. Whining that costs money is pointless and something i have no time for. That it is the difference between the real world and the fantasy world.

And may I also ask what efforts at negotiating with the relevant bodies, NR are making to have those standards revised ?
 
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