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Wisbech-March line reopening cost increase to £200m

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Midnight Sun

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Why do you think that many railway stations have such large carparks?

People are clearly not seeing the main reason for the reopening of lines which is to reduce the number of cars on the roads. While your average car owning commuter will drive to the nearest railway station, You will not get them to use a bus to get to the station how ever posh it is, more so in a rural area. Why do you think that many railway stations have such large carparks?

The small town of Downham Market has a population of just under 10000, Yet the station had 550,000 passenger usage for the year 2018/2019. Many of the passengers come from outside the town including Wisbech. This the preferred station for Cambridge for car owners from Wisbich (population 31,573) as trains are longer, start early and finsh later. The car park is full and cannot be expanded, so you have people leaving their cars on the local streets.

For Wisbech commuters to London tend to drive to Peterborough station for the same reason, These commuters will not use the bus. The main problem with using March station (Town population 22000, 407,194 passenger usage for the year 2018/2019) is the short trains which are overcrowded and if heading to Cambridge the first through train does not reach Cambridge until after 8am, and the last train back leaves at 8pm (Last train to Downham Market from Cambridge is after midnight). Even the early Norwich train is packed until Ely where most people change onto the London train. Again March station has the same problem as Downham Market in that the car park is full and cannot be expanded, so again you have people parking on the local streets.

These car owning commuters are happy to use the train as they know that they will be able to get home at no extal cost to themselves if the train is late or does not run, and you miss the last connecting train. For example: If train is late arriving at Peterborough from London, which means that the last bus to Wisbech has gone, The commuter who used the bus to get to Peterborough station from Wisbech has two options, either pay £60-£70 for a cab to Wisbech or stay in a hotel. If was a case of have missed the last train to March due to delay train from London. Transport will be provide to March at no charge to the rail passenger. Which is why the car owner drives to the station rather then use a bus.

If we look at other reopenings

Stirling and Alloa line

The town of Alloa has a population of 20,730 and is seven miles from Stirling. The rail passenger usage for for the year 2018/2019 was 370,000. The forecasted usage was for 155,000 per year. The main part of the success of the line is down to instead of just a shuttle train just running between Stirling and Alloa. The hourly service instead runs through to Glasgow (55min) with peak hour services to and from Edinburgh (80mins). The journey time from Alloa to Stirling is timetabled to take 9–10 minutes. The bus services between Alloa to Stirling take an average of 32 minuites depending on traffic. The usage spit between rail and bus is 70%-30% with half the bus users using free passes.

Last use of the line between Strling and Alloa before reopening was the Alloa marshalling yard to the west of Alloa remained open until 1988.After which for the next 17 years was left derelict and disused Much of the remaining track was still in place, but in very poor condition, and some sections had been removed, particularly at Kilbagie and near Blackgrange. The bridge over the A907 at Helensfield had to be replaced. In other words in much the same state the Wisbech line is in. Rails have only been removed at three road crossings.

Either of the two railway were listed in the Beeching report for closure.

Levenmouth rail link

This five mile line would link the town of Leven with the Fife Circle line at Thornton North Junction. The line would serve stations at Cameron Bridge and Leven. Levenmouth conurbation has a population of 37,000 (The Town of Leven has a population of 8,850). Like Wisbech (population of 31,573) the STAG3 report looked at a number of options for new links. including upgrading bus services between Levenmouth and existing stations on the Fife Circle rail line, new rapid bus services between Levenmouth and Edinburgh, Even a hovercraft service between Levenmouth, Kirkcaldy and Edinburgh, In the end the report concluded that reopening the line was the best Option to encourage people to use public transport as was the case with the Wisbech-March STAG3 report.


Bus usage

Your average bus user in rural areas is either under 18, Does not own or have access to a car, Has a free bus pass. Car owners only use the bus if the car is not available or they are not able to drive for some reason.

Bus travel in the UK has been in general decline for many years. Whilst this has been masked in recent years by significant increases in London, most urban (with some notable exceptions) and rural areas have seen falling patronage.

The number of local bus passenger journeys in England fell by 85 million or 1.9% to 4.36 billion in the year ending March 2018
Passenger journeys in England outside London declined by 3.2% over the same period, continuing the decline since 2008/09 and are now 4.2% lower than in the year ending March 2006. More than half the bus (2.23 billion) journeys were in London In metropolitan areas, there were 0.91 billion passenger journeys, a decrease of 3.3% compared with 2016/17. In non-metropolitan areas, there were 1.22 billion passenger journeys, a decrease of 3.1%.

Local bus fares in England increased by 71% between March 2005 and March 2018. Bus fares have risen at a faster rate in metropolitan areas (86%) than in non-metropolitan areas (61%). The all items Consumer Prices Index has risen by 35% over the same period, which means that bus fares have risen in real terms.

Total concessionary journeys (elderly or disabled, and youth concessions) made up 34% (1.51 billion passenger journeys) of all local bus passenger journeys in England. In England outside London, 30% of journeys were elderly or disabled concessionary journeys, twice the share as in London.

Between 2011/12 and 2016/17, rural bus mileage fell by over six per cent. During this period, patronage on supported bus services in non-metropolitan areas of England fell by more than 30 per cent and in Wales by 44 per cent.

These figuires come from the DfT Annual bus statistics: England 2017/18

The bus services in Wisbech are a mess with five companies providing services for example: March to Upwell return (Five miles as the crow flys) Two bus journeys via Wisbech, cost not much change out of £15.


 
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Midnight Sun

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Back to Wisbech, I find it interesting that even at substantially lower cost, a tram-train has seemingly so readily been dismissed.

No through services to Cambridge either direct or via Soham and Newmarket. The main part of the success of the to Stirling line is down to instead of just a shuttle train just running between Stirling and Alloa. The hourly service instead runs through to Glasgow (55min) with peak hour services to and from Edinburgh (80mins)
 

Midnight Sun

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Having driven several times from Wisbech to March i don’t see the point in reopening the railway. As the traffic is just not there.
Also the rail line is very bendy.
If a different route was taken it would make more sense and might be a lot cheaper.

Apart from a curve at the start and a curve at the end, the line is dead straight for seven miles.

How do you know that the demand is not there?
 

Midnight Sun

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Not all the time I wouldn't. Summer 2018 with an anticyclone slap bang over the UK for the best part of three months being a prime example. I appreciate the flatlands are exposed to wind, like the Netherlands (and despite this a lot of people use bicycles for utility transport), but I do think the wind resistance is overhyped to a degree. I live in Sussex and also have to cycle in headwinds occasionally, with hills on top of that.

Its windy all the time round here otherwise why have so many Wind Turbine been built? I do live here for seven months of the Year.
 

Midnight Sun

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If it's such a money spinner then you'd expect some competition, in that case

There was competition, Stagecoach brought out Norfolk Green and Cavalier after under cutting them both. The 3rd company Embmbs forced out of business. After which servces were cut back and fares increased.
 

tbtc

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It'd maybe be helpful if the people suggesting that we re-open this line could at least quantify what they'd like - are we talking a diesel shuttle to March? Or an extension/diversion of some longer distance trains to Wisbech? Electrification? Terminating at Wisbech or carrying beyond? What's on the table here?

and every road should have crash barriers down them

Railway safety used to be underpinned by risk assessments and pragmatic engineering but now we seek gold plated perfection but the only outcome from this pursuit will be very few if any of these lines will reopened as heavy rail.

I can build a tram line down a road with no protection against vehicles disobeying traffic lights but we can no longer have level crossings is just absurd. Im not advocating diluting safety but measures need to be proportionate to the risk exposure to ensure costs are reasonable otherwise none will reopen. Thus we leave people to use our roads which are far more risky but thats alright because the railways conscious is clear.

There are many people killed on the roads each day - pedestrians and drivers and passengers - there are collisions/ accidents all over the place.

We generally don't hear about these unless they are very local to us (or cause a ten mile tail back on a motorway and therefore made the "traffic and travel" news on the radio).

But when *one* person is killed in a train crash, it'll be front page news for a week - that's the reality of it. Same reasons why planes are ultra-safe.

You might argue that this shouldn't be that way, and that it'd be acceptable for (say) half a dozen rail deaths a year, since train travel would still be statistically safer than road but the country doesn't work like that - which is why we have a very safe railway with very few preventable deaths (ignoring the things that you can't completely stop like suicides).

Either we deal with the reality of the situation (and accept that the laws are there for a reason) or it's all Crayonista stuff.
 

Midnight Sun

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Well this escalated quickly!

But google maps says 20 minutes, based on actual monitoring of journeys being made, right now. Accepting that these are cars, I guess the bus will be a little longer. Besides, I would expect it to use the A47, not the B1101. (Which is also 20 minutes). Rather than spending £200m for a new line that would enable a shuttle from Wisbech to March, you could spend perhaps £200k on some bus priority measures?
.

Google Maps is wrong, I known both roads well, having lived in the area for seven months of the year for the passed 19 years. I know the state of the roads and the traffic. Anyone who trys to do it in 20 minuites in the daytime will find themselves in either a pinebox or in A&E.
 
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eastdyke

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Google Maps is wrong, I known both road well having lived in the area for seven months of the year for the passed 19 years. I know the state of the roads and the traffic. Anyone who trys to do it in 20 minuites in the daytime will find themselves in either a pinebox or in A&E. c
Google maps cannot be wrong, it is based on monitoring actual journeys!
20 mins for route South Brink/A47/A141 seems reasonable to me too.
No through services to Cambridge either direct or via Soham and Newmarket. The main part of the success of the to Stirling line is down to instead of just a shuttle train just running between Stirling and Alloa. The hourly service instead runs through to Glasgow (55min) with peak hour services to and from Edinburgh (80mins)
Do you have a link to the full report please?
 

Midnight Sun

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It'd maybe be helpful if the people suggesting that we re-open this line could at least quantify what they'd like - are we talking a diesel shuttle to March? Or an extension/diversion of some longer distance trains to Wisbech? Electrification? Terminating at Wisbech or carrying beyond? What's on the table here?
.

The profered option round here and in the GriP3b report is through services to Cambridge either direct or via Soham and Newmarket. The main part of the success of the Alloa to Stirling line is down to instead of just a shuttle train just running between Stirling and Alloa. The hourly service instead runs through to Glasgow (55min) with peak hour services to and from Edinburgh (80mins)

Electrification of the line between Ely and Peterborough would be useful as more longer trains are needed between Peterborough and Cambridge. You could run the London to Ely train which detaches from the back of the Kings Lynn train at Cambridge, through to Peterborough.
 
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Midnight Sun

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Google maps cannot be wrong, it is based on monitoring actual journeys!
20 mins for route South Brink/A47/A141 seems reasonable to me too.

Of course google can be wrong, You may be able to do in 20 minuites in the middle of the night. But the traffic is nose to tail for most of the day on that section of A47. With long waits at the roundabouts when you try to get on to A47
 

Djgr

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Of course google can be wrong, You may be able to do in 20 minuites in the middle of the night. But the traffic is nose to tail for most of the day on that section of A47. With long waits at the roundabouts when you try to get on to A47

Google Maps tends to adjust real time and provides different results for different days/times
 

A0wen

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Of course google can be wrong, You may be able to do in 20 minuites in the middle of the night. But the traffic is nose to tail for most of the day on that section of A47. With long waits at the roundabouts when you try to get on to A47

The A47 is a problem being single carriageway and having alot of lorries using it and with too many junctions. It's long been a candidate for improvement and such improvements would also improve the bus journey time from Wisbech to both March and Peterborough and probably cost a fraction of of the £ 200m being quoted for a heavy rail reinstatement which would only connect Wisbech to March.

Improving the bus services would address many of the problems - the average passenger journey subsidy is currently about 5p / passenger journey - even if you reverted that back to 10p / passenger journey you'd be able to subsidise 2,000,000,000 passenger journeys - more than enough to look after Wisbech for a very, very long time.
 

arb

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Google maps cannot be wrong, it is based on monitoring actual journeys!
Yes it can: https://www.theguardian.com/technol...99-phones-trick-google-maps-traffic-jam-alert

Edit to comply with forum rules: the link is to an amusing newspaper article describing how somebody was able to trick Google Maps into showing incorrect information which suggested that there was slow-moving traffic on roads that were almost empty. The article text is:
A Berlin-based artist managed to create a traffic jam on one of the main bridges across the Spree with nothing but a handcart and 99 second-hand phones. But one other thing was unusual about the jam: it only existed on Google Maps.

Simon Weckert’s artwork Google Maps Hacks involved the artist pulling a small red cart at walking pace down some of the main thoroughfares of Berlin. The 99 phones in the cart, all reporting their locations and movement back to Google’s servers, gave the search company the impression of a huge cluster of slow-moving traffic, which was duly reported on the company’s maps.

“Through this activity, it is possible to turn a green street red, which has an impact in the physical world by navigating cars on another route to avoid being stuck in traffic,” Weckert wrote.

In his statement, Weckert cited a journal article by the German anthropologist Moritz Ahlert: “Google’s map service has fundamentally changed our understanding of what a map is, how we interact with maps, their technological limitations, and how they look aesthetically.

“What is the relationship between the art of enabling and techniques of supervision, control and regulation in Google’s maps? Do these maps function as dispositive nets that determine the behaviour, opinions and images of living beings, exercising power and controlling knowledge? Maps, which themselves are the product of a combination of states of knowledge and states of power, have an inscribed power dispositive.”

One of Weckert’s virtual traffic jams ran directly past Google’s Berlin offices, as the artist’s video footage showed barely any cars on the street – though there were a number of bikes and electric scooters.

A Google spokesperson said: “Whether via car or cart or camel, we love seeing creative uses of Google Maps as it helps us make maps work better over time.”

The work, revealed just a few days before the 15th anniversary of Google Maps’ founding, is just the latest example of a prankster taking advantage of the “crowdsourced” nature of much of Google’s data collection. In 2015, the company had to shut off one feature, Map Maker, after a series of embarrassing vandalism incidents culminated in the creation of a virtual park, the shape of which appeared to resemble the company’s Android logo urinating on Apple’s trademark.

The company was sued the same year for allegedly lifting parts of its database from a rival app, PhantomAlert, which had included digital “trap streets” in its database. Those points of interest, which did not exist in the real world, showed up in Waze, a mapping app Google bought in 2013, PhantomAlert claimed.
 
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Steve Harris

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Specifically on the level crossing issue, the law is clear. If there is a reasonably practical method to reduce risk, then it should be done. For a new railway that needs primary consent to construct, it is always reasonably practical to have an alternative method of crossing the line.
I think you will find that the actual wording is Reasonably practicable!

But the big question is, what is reasonably practicable ?? Is it spending £100 or 100 million or 100 billion to prevent a death or serious injury?

When serious talks started about reinstating this line it was because the council's involved wanted to see houses built and the new occupants travelling to Cambridge for work. Unfortunately the growth of Cambridge is causing a plethora of problems in the county with lack of housing in the right locations and traffic congestion to name just two.
 
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Steve Harris

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To be honest all Boris' Beeching reopenings are likely to have massive levels of financial pain. But he's made a promise and is surely a man of honour.
I think the recent floods in Shropshire and Worcestershire show how much a man Boris is.
 

eastdyke

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Of course google can be wrong, You may be able to do in 20 minuites in the middle of the night. But the traffic is nose to tail for most of the day on that section of A47. With long waits at the roundabouts when you try to get on to A47
Sure there are times of the day when 20 mins is not enough. But 'most of the day' is an exaggeration, its around 20 mins just now and also when I checked a couple of times earlier.
The A47/A141 Guyhirn junction improvement is currently planned for 2021/22, should help a little.
LOL.
I am sure that the people of Wisbech have better things to do!
 

Midnight Sun

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Sure there are times of the day when 20 mins is not enough. But 'most of the day' is an exaggeration, its around 20 mins just now and also when I checked a couple of times earlier.
The A47/A141 Guyhirn junction improvement is currently planned for 2021/22, should help a little.
LOL.
I am sure that the people of Wisbech have better things to do!

It has to be wrong its just taken me over half hour to travel from Guyhirn to March
 

Midnight Sun

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Well, I concede - I can't argue with that. Google is not representative atm, has just gone up to 21 mins LOL.

Have look at the google maps public transport options, you get some odd routes. From my address (PE105 OAU) to Cambridge. For the record it takes me 45 minuites to get to Cambridge

Google maps route 1.jpg google route 2.jpg
 

Midnight Sun

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Of the fatalities on the railway in 2018/19:

  • Six occurred on a level crossing
  • 28 involved people trespassing on the railway
  • 279 were suicides or suspected suicides
 
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duffield

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Tram-train sounds like the most financially sensible rail-based solution - light rail standards, no need for expensive bridges, and through running possible. Maybe this has been discarded because it wouldn't be eligible as a 'rail re-opening', or because of the issues with the Rotherham tram-train?
Potentially you wouldn't even need wires, we're supposed to have available this year batteries suitable for train/tram etc. use with 60 miles range and a 10-minute recharge time. The total distance from Wisbech to Ely is only about 23 miles so assuming a recharge at Ely was undesirable you could get up to full charge at Wisbech within 8 minutes. If through running to Ely couldn't be initially be supported due to the well-known issues there, the service could start as a March shuttle until Ely was sorted.
 

A0wen

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Tram-train sounds like the most financially sensible rail-based solution - light rail standards, no need for expensive bridges, and through running possible. Maybe this has been discarded because it wouldn't be eligible as a 'rail re-opening', or because of the issues with the Rotherham tram-train?
Potentially you wouldn't even need wires, we're supposed to have available this year batteries suitable for train/tram etc. use with 60 miles range and a 10-minute recharge time. The total distance from Wisbech to Ely is only about 23 miles so assuming a recharge at Ely was undesirable you could get up to full charge at Wisbech within 8 minutes. If through running to Ely couldn't be initially be supported due to the well-known issues there, the service could start as a March shuttle until Ely was sorted.

The issue with that is you'd have an isolated "light rail" branch running half a dozen miles on a single route - it's unlikely to be viable on that basis.

Let's look at the light rail systems we actually have in this country and see how they match up to this:

DLR - a 25 mile network with an annual ridership of 122 million
Tyne & Wear Metro a 50 mile network, annual ridership 36 million
NET a 20 mile network, annual ridership 19 million
West Mids Metro 13 miles, annual ridership 6 million
Sheffield Supertram 21 miles, annual ridership 12 million
Croydon tramlink 17 miles, annual ridership 29 million
Manchester Metrolink 62 miles, annual ridership 44 million

I very much doubt Wisbech would even attract 10% the ridership of the West Mids metro - bearing in mind the WMM is running through the centre of Birmingham.
 

eldomtom2

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We do? Last I checked the last passenger fatality was Grayrigg over ten years ago!
From the 2018/19 ORR report:
Thirteen people died compared to six the previous year. This sharp increase was partly driven by a rise in fatalities at the platform-train interface, which accounted for seven of the 13. Other passenger fatalities in 2018-19 involved one fall on stairs in a station; a passenger fatally injured after leaning out of the window of a moving train; two assaults onboard trains; one cardiac arrest on an escalator; and one victim of another’s suicide.
 

al78

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Its windy all the time round here otherwise why have so many Wind Turbine been built? I do live here for seven months of the Year.

metofficegovuk xsmall.gif
The windiest parts of Eastern England are about 8-10 mph, annual average, 1981-2010 climatology, which is a little higher than central and more western lowland regions, but I would say it is a stretch to claim it is windy all the time. Wind turbine siting will be more than just mean wind speed, suitable land is also a consideration, and level of NIMBYism. The best place to put wind turbines from purely a wind energy harnessing point of view is on top of exposed ridges and summits, but that will never happen because there would be outrage over despoiling areas of outstanding natural beauty.
 
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