WSMR to finish

[merlodlliw]

We only found out on friday too, so the cancellations may not have filtered down yet.

Good morning planner.
The official communication was sent out by W/S to both ORR & Nat Rail on Wednesday, short notice I know,but everyone in the trade was aware prior to Friday, anyhow I know there must be reasons why the boards are still active & the bi ling announcements are being made, I was just mentioning it due driving a neighbour to the station & thought I must be dreaming,when I heard the 0723 W/S being announced. As you say perhaps it takes a while to alter things.

Bob

 

[The Planner]

We were only told on friday as I said. Nothing came down from higher up before then.

 

[4SRKT]

What's this 'established member' business? Am I an 'established member'?

ON EDIT: Yes, it would seem I am.

 

[ainsworth74]

What's this 'established member' business? Am I an 'established member'?

See here

 

[the-gog]

I've just been catching up with several days' worth of forum posts on here, so apologies. Firstly, it's desperately sad, and my heart goes out to all the staff and their families affected by this. In a right and just world, these things don't happen, but we're not in one of these. It broke my heart to see Jane in tears in the RFM on the 1J84, and for that, I can't bring myself to listen to that audio clip of her doing the announcements. Many thanks TDK for your excellent driving on the way back, and indeed on the various times you've probably driven me these past few years. I hope the staff had a good party at your place on Saturday night.

I've finally gotten around to uploading my photos to Flickr, after I'd found my memory card as I'd lost it for two days! The photos are mainly of the staff on the 1J84, though there's a few of them at Marylebone:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/welsh_snapper/sets/72157625938353972/

I concur with what darkprince66 wrote on uk.railway. Based on what I've heard, there appears to be much more to this than meets the eye, and MoC isn't a red herring, either. There's an interesting story that might or might not come out regarding that, but to try to suggest that WSMR had no viable business plan or sound financial future is rather far from the truth; it would appear that things weren't as half as bad as are being suggested. Another point to consider -- and this has come from a business consultant I know -- is that WSMR's original business plan must have been cast iron sound as the financial backers they had to launch the service were no fools (he's dealt with them), and wouldn't touch anything that wasn't thoroughly researched or too risky.

 

[Aictos]

There is some good news though as First are working with the team at Wrexham to ensure that as many of their 53 employees are able to find alternative employment which means FTPE are naturally leading as they are within the 'patch'. All the TOC's across the UK are providing support and a recruitment event will take place later this week.

Hopefully this will mean that as many as possible of former WSMR staff will find alternative employment.

 

[GodAtum]

I've finally gotten around to uploading my photos to Flickr, after I'd found my memory card as I'd lost it for two days! The photos are mainly of the staff on the 1J84, though there's a few of them at Marylebone:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/welsh_snapper/sets/72157625938353972/

Thanks for all the photos

 

[Railjet]

Another point to consider -- and this has come from a business consultant I know -- is that WSMR's original business plan must have been cast iron sound as the financial backers they had to launch the service were no fools (he's dealt with them), and wouldn't touch anything that wasn't thoroughly researched or too risky.

No business plan can be cast iron sound - how can you accurately predict the future? You make assumptions (guesses) and if the assumptions are wrong, the plan goes awry.

How can you measure risk in a project like this? Normally you would look at existing similar ventures and review their performance. In this case, there was nothing to compare against - an open-access operator in a similar market under similar competitive conditions - which already increases the inherent risk of the project, because there is more guesswork involved in the assumptions you make in the plan.

 

[nedchester]

I concur with what darkprince66 wrote on uk.railway. Based on what I've heard, there appears to be much more to this than meets the eye, and MoC isn't a red herring, either. There's an interesting story that might or might not come out regarding that, but to try to suggest that WSMR had no viable business plan or sound financial future is rather far from the truth; it would appear that things weren't as half as bad as are being suggested. Another point to consider -- and this has come from a business consultant I know -- is that WSMR's original business plan must have been cast iron sound as the financial backers they had to launch the service were no fools (he's dealt with them), and wouldn't touch anything that wasn't thoroughly researched or too risky.

Most interesting reading. Do I detect some 'dirty tricks' from others in the industry? Hmm!
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Interesting comment on the Wrexham and Shropshire Facebook Support page:

"according to a reliable source the debt was only 3 million pounds and they could have carried on to the end of the year but arriva want to go to london marylebone from aberystwyth but couldnt get any paths because wrexham and shropshire had them and then they were shut down, suspicious or what!!!"

 

[the-gog]

As more and more stories/"evidence" emerge of shadowy dealings behind finishing off WSMR, it looks increasingly likely that the original excuse of the £2.8m loss was only a public reason to be trotted out, and the real reasons for its demise being much more complex and political.

 

[tbtc]

Conspiracy theory time?

 

[the-gog]

Conspiracy theory time?

There's no direct evidence yet, only stories and rumours people have heard, and that includes me. It's quite likely it's all an internal matter for DB-R, so whatever discussions took place will remain secret. There's something very fishy about it all.

 

[The Planner]

I would say so, the old 158 paths would never work under EG3 now and if they did somehow stay as 67 hauled they would need to sort out getting some ERTMS kit in them.

 

[the-gog]

I would say so, the old 158 paths would never work under EG3 now and if they did somehow stay as 67 hauled they would need to sort out getting some ERTMS kit in them.

If they were going to run a 67+Mk3s+DVT to Aber, they'll probably just bung the ERTMS kit inside the DVT and link it to a display/controls in the cab of the loco, like they're planning on doing with the 5MT this summer, where the kit will be installed in one of the coaches and linked to a display on the footplate of 44871.

 

[The Planner]

It will be the old speed vs comfort debate too, as there are a few loco speed restrictions on the Aber route if I recall.

 

[merlodlliw]

Most interesting reading. Do I detect some 'dirty tricks' from others in the industry? Hmm!
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Interesting comment on the Wrexham and Shropshire Facebook Support page:

"according to a reliable source the debt was only 3 million pounds and they could have carried on to the end of the year but arriva want to go to london marylebone from aberystwyth but couldnt get any paths because wrexham and shropshire had them and then they were shut down, suspicious or what!!!"

Its all up in the air at the moment,Wrexham County Council had a special agenda meeting on Monday about WSMR and are to have another shortly.
Wrexham Council are also now looking at funding it gives to ATW for the subsidy it pays them on the Bidston line. (six Sunday trains are paid totally by ratepayers)
As far as ATW and open access 158 is concerned(Aber to Marylebone) this is dead in the water,it was only ever a spoiler before DB takeover of both WSMR & ATW, DB would never in my opinion hire in 158 stock for open access on the Aber run and WAG will not allow its stock to be used after ORRs response.The hourly service as gone off the boil between Shrewsbury & Aber I also note, not that there was anything more than an aspiration on this.

I agree with several, there is more to the WSMR closure than meets the eye & although ATW press office denies it, discussions are afoot on stock diagrams for the WAG Expresses
and with £3.5M of Welsh assembly Govt funds about to be put in ATWs coffers along with the £1.7M for the service already running, I remain sceptical.


Bob

 

[45669]

As more and more stories/"evidence" emerge of shadowy dealings behind finishing off WSMR, it looks increasingly likely that the original excuse of the £2.8m loss was only a public reason to be trotted out, and the real reasons for its demise being much more complex and political.

I went on a course once where we were told that people have two reasons for doing things. The reason that they tell you because it sounds good - and the real reason...

 

[TDK]

It will be the old speed vs comfort debate too, as there are a few loco speed restrictions on the Aber route if I recall.

67's are RA8 so not permitted to Aber unless it is by special arangement so it isn't going to happen with the 67's, as for ATW running 158's I cannot see DB allowing a slower train on the Chilterns after EG3 from the same group. Speculation isn't worth taking note of.

 

[the-gog]

67's are RA8 so not permitted to Aber unless it is by special arangement so it isn't going to happen with the 67's, as for ATW running 158's I cannot see DB allowing a slower train on the Chilterns after EG3 from the same group. Speculation isn't worth taking note of.

Strictly speaking, the entire Cambrian west of Sutton Bridge Jct is RA5, but this hasn't stopped 67s twice doing a wine 'n' dine to Mach (I'm leaving out the Royalexes). I was shown a document recently that outlines the various speed restrictions for any "heavy" loco movement to Aberystwyth or Pwllheli. Basically, the old route classification has long flown out of the window, with movements down here being done on an ad-hoc basis. Who'd have thought we'd ever see a 67 cross Barmouth Bridge?

 

[TDK]

Strictly speaking, the entire Cambrian west of Sutton Bridge Jct is RA5, but this hasn't stopped 67s twice doing a wine 'n' dine to Mach (I'm leaving out the Royalexes). I was shown a document recently that outlines the various speed restrictions for any "heavy" loco movement to Aberystwyth or Pwllheli. Basically, the old route classification has long flown out of the window, with movements down here being done on an ad-hoc basis. Who'd have thought we'd ever see a 67 cross Barmouth Bridge?

Hey presto Network Rail will make it RA8 from RA5 overnight - I don't think so

 

[the-gog]

Hey presto Network Rail will make it RA8 from RA5 overnight - I don't think so

I know they won't -- they just seem to ignore the RA5 bit whenever anything heavier is requested to travel down here, and grant one-off permissions each time anything is due to run.

 

[The Planner]

Ive said this before, the RA restriction and sectional appendix go out the window for charter paths, makes you wonder whether it is worth the paper it is written on half the time.

 

[the-gog]

Ive said this before, the RA restriction and sectional appendix go out the window for charter paths, makes you wonder whether it is worth the paper it is written on half the time.

Is it in the sectional appendix that 67s are passed all the way up the coast to Pwllheli? According to NR they are.

 

[The Planner]

Last time I checked they werent. Still RA5.

 

[merlodlliw]

67's are RA8 so not permitted to Aber unless it is by special arangement so it isn't going to happen with the 67's, as for ATW running 158's I cannot see DB allowing a slower train on the Chilterns after EG3 from the same group. Speculation isn't worth taking note of.

There is not a glimmer of hope for an open access 158 service to Marylebone from Aber, I agree just speculation, too many burned fingers in Pentaith house
from the invention of this haired brained idea, does anyone think DB will allow ATW to run an open access service,with not a hope of profit. Original plan thrown out by ORR due to fudged figures.

1.Cost of hiring in stock, WAG wont allow any of its 158s to be used
2.Must carry a travelling fitter (requirement agreed by ATW)
3.Staff pay etc,
4.other charges to Network Rail etc etc

ATW wont spend a penny unless some one else pays,

 

[TDK]

ATW wont spend a penny unless some one else pays,

And this was all a part of their francise agreement I believe so who is to blame?

 

[The Planner]

Route clearance for GW733 was updated on 8/1/2011, RA7 to Welshpool, RA5 afterwards. Only locos officially cleared in the appendix are 08, 20, 31/1, 31/3, 33, 37/0, 37/3, 37/4, 37/5, 37/6 and 97/3. 60s and 67s are not cleared. 66s are clear to work to and from posessions up to Welshpool. So it is obviously quietly ignored for charters or it needs a proper update.

 

[merlodlliw]

And this was all a part of their francise agreement I believe so who is to blame?

some headless wonder at the DFT, 15 year franchise with no growth.

 

[the-gog]

Route clearance for GW733 was updated on 8/1/2011, RA7 to Welshpool, RA5 afterwards. Only locos officially cleared in the appendix are 08, 20, 31/1, 31/3, 33, 37/0, 37/3, 37/4, 37/5, 37/6 and 97/3. 60s and 67s are not cleared. 66s are clear to work to and from possessions up to Welshpool. So it is obviously quietly ignored for charters or it needs a proper update.

66s have worked to Aberystwyth, and Tywyn on engineering trains. They've been working to Machynlleth for the past few years on RHTT, as well as engineering trains pretty much everywhere except north of Tywyn. We've had a 60 down here twice, April 2008, but no farther down than Fron bank.

http://railphotos.demeseo.com/p49886745.html