You must stay at home as much as possible

[Huntergreed]

My comment that the advice was out of date was ironic. A quick check will show that https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus has been updated multiple times per day - there is no doubt that this is current government messaging.

I believe that the government is being deliberately contradictory, as I said in my earlier post. The short-lived tweet from the Government Account "Can you imagine having to work with these truth twisters" sums up the current position.

As for how we need to lock down for - I'm really at a loss. It's clear that we should have locked down fast and hard when we had the change, but the government decided not to and we're in the position we are now. We could have had less than half the number of deaths and have been relaxing controls with a clear and easy conscience.

We've had the opportunity to act quickly and decisively on a number of occasions - masks are the latest debacle - why wait another week?

This is all down to the risible, self-serving, talentless government that's way out of its depth.

So what do you propose we do? We can’t stay like this for much longer. We’re not locked down but we may as well be, people are terrified to go to work, use public transport and go out and support shops and restaurants.

This really isn’t a healthy position to be in. I think the government probably have likely forgotten about this page of guidance, as it’s vastly outdated, but telling people at this stage in the pandemic to stay at home when we really need to be encouraging economic activity would just be ridiculous.

 

[Puffing Devil]

So what do you propose we do? We can’t stay like this for much longer. We’re not locked down but we may as well be, people are terrified to go to work, use public transport and go out and support shops and restaurants.

This really isn’t a healthy position to be in. I think the government probably have likely forgotten about this page of guidance, as it’s vastly outdated, but telling people at this stage in the pandemic to stay at home when we really need to be encouraging economic activity would just be ridiculous.

How do you forget about the banner headline on the front page of your COVID landing page?

 

[yorkie]

As for how we need to lock down for - I'm really at a loss.

OK well I am not at a loss and am quite clear we need to be not staying at home now

 

[Tetchytyke]

Excessive levels of working at home have a huge impact on the economy.

I think it's more swings and roundabouts.

If everyone who can works from home, some businesses will lose out- commercial landlords, town centre takeaway food and coffee retailers, bus companies, car park owners.

But others will gain. People who aren't paying so much for train travel, and aren't buying the £3 coffee every morning, will have disposable income to spend elsewhere in the economy. And they will spend it elsewhere in the economy.

 

[Jamesrob637]

I have been out to independent pubs (well, regional chains) near me last night and tonight. I did that pre-COVID also to be fair. I stuck in most of the time barring one hour's exercise prior to the 15th of June when I went to my mum's as the social bubbles expanded. Then I was mostly in my mum's house or exercising on the roads and paths around hers. Life is too short to not do things sensibly.

 

[HSTEd]

And they will spend it elsewhere in the economy.

Or it will be taxed out of existance to pay the bill for the current mess.
Or they will save it because they expect to be out of a job very soon.

 

[DB]

We could have had less than half the number of deaths and have been relaxing controls with a clear and easy conscience.

You simply cannot claim that.

Despite all the recent bashing Sweden has been getting in the media, it needs to be reiterated that with no 'lockdown' their per capita death rate is still lower than the UK.

 

[al78]

It’s quite ridiculous that they have this up on their website and yet they’re also wondering why the high streets are dead.

Horsham town centre certainly isn't dead, it was unusually busy on Saturday morning, even comparing to pre-COVID days. At least in my local area, people seem to be doing their best to get on with their lives.

High prevalence of cases? There are under 1000 new cases per day. At that rate would take around 200 years for everyone to have had it once!

Virus propagation is exponential, not linear, so theoretically it would spread faster and faster with time if no measures at all were taken.

But it's not going to disappear, and a vaccine is by no means guaranteed. People cannot continue to stay at home in large numbers unless we want a constant stream of bankruptcies and job losses.

And eventually, the loss of the wealth of the country, which is built on the productivity of its population.

Prior to the lockdown we were all happy to take that miniscule risk and wouldn't let it stop us going out and doing all the things we enjoy. Now the lockdown is all but over, why are some people still so fearful?

Some people can't be bothered to think, because it requires mental effort and some time to gather information, so they let the media tell them what to think. The media unfortunately have been skewed toward the worst case scenario.

Indeed, for the last few days the average number of deaths per day is comparable to the number of deaths each day on the roads 20 years ago (10/day).

Whilst the number of deaths per day on the roads had fallen to about 5/day recently (and I suspect that 2020 will see this fall due to lower traffic volumes) if there was the same fear of it as Covid-19 then it would be much lower!

Road deaths are not a good analogy, because they don't propagate exponentially like viruses do. It is not the absolute numbers that has triggered the fear, it is the potential for exponential growth, which if left unchecked, does have the potential to overwhelm. It comes down to judging what is the risk now for the virus to propagate exponentially to the point of overwhelming the NHS if measures were completely relaxed? Currently, we seem to be giving far more weight to the most pessimistic possibility. The problem is whether you take the extreme glass half full or glass half empty approach, the cost of being wrong is disasterous.

 

[DB]

Some people can't be bothered to think, because it requires mental effort and some time to gather information, so they let the media tell them what to think. The media unfortunately have been skewed toward the worst case scenario.

That's true, and there's currently no difference between left, right and centrist media either - the Guardian, Daily Mail and BBC are all peddling the same line of doom-and-gloom.

 

[Class 33]

I'm on a train down to Weymouth. Almost there now! And the train is fairly busy now. Lots of daytrippers onboard for a day at the seaside! Good on them! We can't all stay at home for months on end!

 

[yorksrob]

I'm on a train down to Weymouth. Almost there now! And the train is fairly busy now. Lots of daytrippers onboard for a day at the seaside! Good on them! We can't all stay at home for months on end!

That's good news. Weymouth is one of my favourite resorts as well.

 

[adc82140]

The WHO state that Covid is under control if less than 5% of tests come back as positive. England is sitting at less than 1%. It's obvious that the release of lockdown so far is keeping things under control.

 

[LAX54]

The idea that we should still all stay at home as much as possible is, quite frankly, absurd.

It actually means nothing at all in reality

 

[LAX54]

The WHO state that Covid is under control if less than 5% of tests come back as positive. England is sitting at less than 1%. It's obvious that the release of lockdown so far is keeping things under control.

In theory the more tests you carry out, then the rate should rise a bit, as you are testing more peoplem so more should come back poistive by %. If it does not rise, then that questions why are we still pussy footing around ?

 

[carlberry]

You can infer from the data recoveries.

295k have tested positive, 45k have died and around 2k in hospital currently so thats 248k who have pulled through

Unfortunately the government likes issuing statistics based on number of tests, not number of people. 295k positive tests isn't 295k people (however, equally, the number of actual cases has to be significantly more as the above figures give a death rate of 15%)

 

[MikeWM]

In theory the more tests you carry out, then the rate should rise a bit, as you are testing more peoplem so more should come back poistive by %. If it does not rise, then that questions why are we still pussy footing around ?

Indeed. And the % (positive tests / number of tests done) continues to fall, which is good.

 

[Puffing Devil]

You simply cannot claim that.

Despite all the recent bashing Sweden has been getting in the media, it needs to be reiterated that with no 'lockdown' their per capita death rate is still lower than the UK.

Sweden has a death rate per capita that's hot on our heels.

Many scientists have gone on record stating that earlier lockdown could have saved many lives.

A quick look at those countries who locked down quickly will show that they have been effective in controlling the virus.

Our government still can't even bring any urgency to any changes - why are we waiting until this weekend for masks in shops? If they work they should be working now, not by the weekend.

Incompetent and out of their depth.

 

[DB]

Sweden has a death rate per capita that's hot on our heels.

Many scientists have gone on record stating that earlier lockdown could have saved many lives.

A quick look at those countries who locked down quickly will show that they have been effective in controlling the virus.

Our government still can't even bring any urgency to any changes - why are we waiting until this weekend for masks in shops? If they work they should be working now, not by the weekend.

Incompetent and out of their depth.

Many scientists don't agree - and you only need to look at some of the predictions which have proved completely wrong to see that there is a tendency to vastly over-estimate among those who claim there is a benefit.

As regards numbers, see here:

COVID-19 deaths per capita by country | Statista

COVID deaths worldwide were highest in Peru, topping a list that compares deaths per million in 210 countries worldwide.

www.statista.com

Sweden is actually a fair way behind the UK, and all four of those above it have imposed lockdowns and masks.

 

[yorkie]

I'm on a train down to Weymouth. Almost there now! And the train is fairly busy now. Lots of daytrippers onboard for a day at the seaside! Good on them! We can't all stay at home for months on end!

Just a gentle reminder that if anyone wishes to post about trips they have planned, the best place to do this is the Trip Planning & Reports section.

I've moved some posts here: https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/upcoming-trip-to-weymouth.206746/

There is also a more general thread at https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...few-weeks-purely-for-leisure-purposes.206430/ which people can reply to without creating a new thread, but for detailed discussion or if anyone wishes to seek advice, it's best to create a new thread

Thanks

 

[MikeWM]

Sweden is actually a fair way behind the UK, and all four of those above it have imposed lockdowns and masks.

There's lots of interesting comparisons to be done. Eg. look at Peru (early and strict lockdown), doing worse than Brazil (patchy lockdown), both doing much much worse than Uruguay (no offical lockdown).

 

[yorkie]

Sweden has a death rate per capita that's hot on our heels.

Naturally we are going to disagree over Sweden, but I would say it's too early to be sure either way.

But my understanding of the evidence so far, after reading extensively on the subject and listening to what various Swedish doctors have said, I think they are in a very good position personally and infinitely better than us.

They have not told people to stay at home but they have implemented sensible measures. They recognised they made mistakes regarding care homes, but so have most countries, and that does not mean healthy people should stay at home.

There's lots of interesting comparisons to be done. Eg. look at Peru (early and strict lockdown), doing worse than Brazil (patchy lockdown), both doing much much worse than Uruguay (no offical lockdown).

Yes there is very little evidence to say that telling people to stay at home is the solution to this. There is plenty of evidence that telling people to stay at home causes economic hardship which can affect anyone but generally affects poorer people and younger people. It's caused mental health issues and suicides.

I utterly reject the "stay at home" message and am more than prepared to argue with anyone who disagrees with me. I can see the damage it is doing and I am not going to shirk from an argument, I am not going to back down, I will fight for what I believe is right. If I fall out with people over it, so be it!

I accept others are entitled to their views, but I have the right to believe their views are wrong.

 

[LAX54]

As far as I can work out, the general opinion of many of those I know, is that in reality the lockdown was maybe just a bit over the top, and was not needed, and if it was, then we need it evry year when the NHS gets overwhlemed and Ambulances sitting oiutside A&E for 8 hours at a time, the collateral damge from lockdown will be, or is far far more damaging that the virus itself, Sweden, carried on a snormal, yet they are still 'behind us', you cannt get away from C-19 amd hiding away, locked indoors will not make it go away either.

 

[carlberry]

As far as I can work out, the general opinion of many of those I know, is that in reality the lockdown was maybe just a bit over the top, and was not needed, and if it was, then we need it evry year when the NHS gets overwhlemed and Ambulances sitting oiutside A&E for 8 hours at a time, the collateral damge from lockdown will be, or is far far more damaging that the virus itself, Sweden, carried on a snormal, yet they are still 'behind us', you cannt get away from C-19 amd hiding away, locked indoors will not make it go away either.

The yearly winter pressure waiting is usually for beds and is triaged so that nobody is actually at any greater risk then if they were admitted. Covid had the potential to overwhelm to the extent that decisions would have to be made about which patient was going to be allowed to use the equipment (vents and oxygen), and which would just be left to die. Sweden managed to get people to social distance early on, at the stage where Boris was still bosting about shakeing hands with Covid patients and residents were being sent back to care homes without testing in the UK.

If everybody stayed indoors then Covid (in the human population) would die out within a couple of weeks if the lockdown was complete enough (i.e. of the kind that only China could implement)

 

[causton]

I accept others are entitled to their views, but I have the right to believe their views are wrong.

People are certainly entitled to their views but it is more the way the message is put across. I would say my own views but I fear getting immediately shot down in flames on this forum!! I think the course we have taken has not been overly strict considering where we are, and we are now in a good place to move forward whilst remaining cautious.

 

[Djgr]

Sweden has a death rate per capita that's hot on our heels.

Many scientists have gone on record stating that earlier lockdown could have saved many lives.

A quick look at those countries who locked down quickly will show that they have been effective in controlling the virus.

Our government still can't even bring any urgency to any changes - why are we waiting until this weekend for masks in shops? If they work they should be working now, not by the weekend.

Incompetent and out of their depth.

The evidence of additional benefits of masks whilst social distancing is occurring is weak.

 

[Richard Scott]

People are certainly entitled to their views but it is more the way the message is put across. I would say my own views but I fear getting immediately shot down in flames on this forum!! I think the course we have taken has not been overly strict considering where we are, and we are now in a good place to move forward whilst remaining cautious.

A lot of people have fears, which are probably due to constant bombardment of negative messages in the early days. The issue is messages still are doom and gloom and some people find it hard to see past that. That's not a criticism but how minds have been affected by these constant messages; someone has already likened it to Nazi propoganda, which whilst much worse, was rolled out in a similar way.

 

[Djgr]

A bit of context:

Six more deaths reported in England

The number of people who died in English hospitals after a positive coronavirus test has reached 29,187 after NHS England recorded six more deaths in the last 24 hours.

The patients were aged between 74 and 98 years old and all had underlying health conditions.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-53468151

The important words and numbers here. Six, 74, 98, all.

 

[Huntergreed]

A bit of context:

Six more deaths reported in England

The number of people who died in English hospitals after a positive coronavirus test has reached 29,187 after NHS England recorded six more deaths in the last 24 hours.

The patients were aged between 74 and 98 years old and all had underlying health conditions.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-53468151

The important words and numbers here. Six, 74, 98, all.

I can already hear the masses screaming 'that's 6 too many!' and 'but young people are at risk too! you don't have to have a condition to die from it!'

We really need a dash of reality to hit this country, I don't quite know what's happened, but we seem so focused on this one cause that we're willing to destroy the country to achieve it. It's not a healthy mindset and must change.

 

[adc82140]

Anyone over the age of 80 has an underlying health condition: it's called being old. Like it or not if you're over 80 you have a 1 in 10 chance of dying this year, for any reason.

 

[Puffing Devil]

The evidence of additional benefits of masks whilst social distancing is occurring is weak.

Why delay a policy which the government has decided is necessary. Either it believes it, or it's weak and unable to implement a simple decision.