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11-12 station usage: Welsh context

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Gareth Marston

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Quite right. It has to be recognised that comparing one station with anothe ris pointless without context - usually the level of service, the geographical catchment area, and goodness knows what else!

You have to understand whats going on and the local market. If you look at the Cambrian the coast line (Gwynedd) has only seen growth in passenger numbers of 30% since 97/98 whilst the Ceredigion stations have seen 75% in same period and the Montgomeryshire ones have seen 103%. With the coast its well known that secondary school roll numbers were falling in the period so numbers of schoolchildren on season tickets which use to account for a third of usage were in decline which reduced the overall growth but non school children increased at comparable rate to elsewhere. I'm told the school numbers are expected to go up in the next few years. However i've not come to a firm conclusion as to why Montogmeryshire has outstripped Ceredigion yet.
 
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Greenback

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You have to understand whats going on and the local market. If you look at the Cambrian the coast line (Gwynedd) has only seen growth in passenger numbers of 30% since 97/98 whilst the Ceredigion stations have seen 75% in same period and the Montgomeryshire ones have seen 103%. With the coast its well known that secondary school roll numbers were falling in the period so numbers of schoolchildren on season tickets which use to account for a third of usage were in decline which reduced the overall growth but non school children increased at comparable rate to elsewhere. I'm told the school numbers are expected to go up in the next few years. However i've not come to a firm conclusion as to why Montogmeryshire has outstripped Ceredigion yet.

Yes, the local market would come under 'goodness knows what else'! The schooltraffic is signifcant for the Cambrian Coast line, I think this is one of the main reasons that the route wasn't closed?

It's good news that traffic is growing, albeit at a slower rate than the main Cambrian line. I last used it in 2010, and the trains seemed busier than I remembered from my previous visits in the mid 1990's. Even the 2000 or so southbound service from Porthmadog seemed to be pretty well filled for a wet Wednesday evening.
 

Rhydgaled

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comparing one station with anothe ris pointless without context - usually the level of service, the geographical catchment area, and goodness knows what else!
Is there any problem with comparing usage of HOWL stations with other HOWL stations, since all have the same level of service? In the case of the HOWL, it looks like the population of the catchment area is a major factory in traffic levels at these stations. Is that a safe comparison?
 

Greenback

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Is there any problem with comparing usage of HOWL stations with other HOWL stations, since all have the same level of service? In the case of the HOWL, it looks like the population of the catchment area is a major factory in traffic levels at these stations. Is that a safe comparison?

I would only compare the statistics to see whethe rusage seems to be rising or falling over a period of time, but then I have never given this data a lot of credence for reasons I outlined earlier in the thread!

If you did wnat to do it, though, you would have to take into account the location of the stations, the population of the catchment area, and whether there are any major traffic generators like schools and colleges nearby.

As an example, take Llangennech and Bynea. They both have an identical service, but the station at Bynea seems to be closer to a lot more local housing than the station at Llangennech.

On the other hand, the bus service is probably better at Bynea for people wanting to go into Llanelli and Swansea!

Overall, I see little point in comparing these two stations without taking into account the differences between them, and how do you actually take that into account in practice?

And what would be the purpose in comparing the usage of one station with another in the first place? The only reason I can think of is to campaign for an additional limited stop service, using the figures to decide which stops can be ommitted. But the characteristics of the line with its low speeds, passing loops render a limited stop service difficult. After all, why omit stops just to arrive at a passing point earlier and sit there for longer?
 

Rhydgaled

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And what would be the purpose in comparing the usage of one station with another in the first place? The only reason I can think of is to campaign for an additional limited stop service, using the figures to decide which stops can be ommitted.
That is exactly the sort of thing I was thinking of. I note your point about passing loops, and for that and other reasons it might not work. But it might work, and if it would work some limited-stop services (in addition to the present 4 all-stops services) might attract more passengers overall than additional all-stops trains.
 

swcovas

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I would only compare the statistics to see whethe rusage seems to be rising or falling over a period of time, but then I have never given this data a lot of credence for reasons I outlined earlier in the thread!

If you did wnat to do it, though, you would have to take into account the location of the stations, the population of the catchment area, and whether there are any major traffic generators like schools and colleges nearby.

As an example, take Llangennech and Bynea. They both have an identical service, but the station at Bynea seems to be closer to a lot more local housing than the station at Llangennech.

On the other hand, the bus service is probably better at Bynea for people wanting to go into Llanelli and Swansea!

Overall, I see little point in comparing these two stations without taking into account the differences between them, and how do you actually take that into account in practice?



And what would be the purpose in comparing the usage of one station with another in the first place? The only reason I can think of is to campaign for an additional limited stop service, using the figures to decide which stops can be ommitted. But the characteristics of the line with its low speeds, passing loops render a limited stop service difficult. After all, why omit stops just to arrive at a passing point earlier and sit there for longer?

Given its length on the HOWL it is difficult to make any sort of comparisons between some stations. The northern end of the line is somewhat different in nature than the south. Tiny hamlets have similar footfall to Llangennech and Bynea (which are quite sizeable villages) but the line is probably used more because there IS no alternative. As has been said Bynea does have an excellent bus service to both Swansea and Llanelli but Llangennech, unless I’m mistaken has no direct service to Swansea.

Discussion of an improved and /or introduction of a fast limited stop service on the HOWL has been covered on another thread recently. The problem of “omitting stops just to arrive at a passing point earlier and sit there for longer” can easily be overcome and we did have a limited stop service until just before privatisation which did the journey in 3h 33m probably with more speed restrictions than exist today. It is possible but only be really effective if the level crossing speed restrictions and Crew operated level crossings were eliminated. I was recently watching a video of the Romney, Hythe & Dymchurch and was amazed to see all level crossings with AHB or similar with trains passing at (relative) speed…..no delays while drivers operated crossings! Why can’t we have that on the HOWL???? Money, I guess!

There is a new study on improving services on the line currently being undertaken which quite rigtly is adopting the "blank sheet of paper approach" as opposed to fitting in any new service within the current tt which all seem to agree is pretty useless! Unfortunately as Gareth Marston pointed out recently ("Tondu" thread):

"Welsh Government has committed its transport infrastructure plans & budget for the current Assembly period to June 2015. So any additional schemes beyond will have to wait for the next Assembly Government to be elected."

PS.....just discovered there is a bus service from Llangennech to swansea but it takes 1h 15m as opposed to the train's 25mins or so! However it is hourly....
 
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jones_bangor

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"Welsh Government has committed its transport infrastructure plans & budget for the current Assembly period to June 2015. So any additional schemes beyond will have to wait for the next Assembly Government to be elected."

Make that 2016 - the 4 year term of the current Assembly has been extended to 5 to avoid a clash with Westminster elections in 2015.
 

Gareth Marston

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It would be interesting to see the split figures for Wrexham General both before and after doubling to Chester and to see the present figures for usage on the Bidston Line and the Chester-Shrewsbury journeys

Probably you wont notice much as theirs no accompanying increases in service levels planned, the work is part of a scheme to improve journey times of north to south wales trains. It will still be 1 tph between Chester and Wrexham. I doubt whether there will be any huge spike in footfall at Colwyn Bay or Bangor because you can get to Cardiff a bit quicker.

The next likely point of any additional services will be when they try to re let the West Coast franchise and then it will a few years off as we saw with the aborted bids the winner was planning on ordering new stock which of course has been postponed.
 

Greenback

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That is exactly the sort of thing I was thinking of. I note your point about passing loops, and for that and other reasons it might not work. But it might work, and if it would work some limited-stop services (in addition to the present 4 all-stops services) might attract more passengers overall than additional all-stops trains.

Ah! I suspected as much!

I am certainly not against additional service son the line, and I am certainly not against the idea of limited stop services. It seems to me that all trains should stop at Pontardulais, Pantyffynon, Tirydail, Llandeilo, Llangadog, Llanwrda, Llandovery, Llanwrtyd, Builth Road, Llandod, Knucklas, Knighton,Craven Arms and Shrewsbury.

Something else I would like to see considered are additional trains on the southern and northern section for local journeys to and from Shrewsbury/Swansea.

Discussion of an improved and /or introduction of a fast limited stop service on the HOWL has been covered on another thread recently. The problem of “omitting stops just to arrive at a passing point earlier and sit there for longer” can easily be overcome and we did have a limited stop service until just before privatisation which did the journey in 3h 33m probably with more speed restrictions than exist today.

You may be right, I don't know enough about the characteristics of the line, but I know that the Light Railway Order it operates under does limit speeds somewhat.

It is possible but only be really effective if the level crossing speed restrictions and Crew operated level crossings were eliminated. I was recently watching a video of the Romney, Hythe & Dymchurch and was amazed to see all level crossings with AHB or similar with trains passing at (relative) speed…..no delays while drivers operated crossings! Why can’t we have that on the HOWL???? Money, I guess!

I think that the LRO also places restirctions on level crossings and signalling.

There is a new study on improving services on the line currently being undertaken which quite rigtly is adopting the "blank sheet of paper approach" as opposed to fitting in any new service within the current tt which all seem to agree is pretty useless! Unfortunately as Gareth Marston pointed out recently ("Tondu" thread):

"Welsh Government has committed its transport infrastructure plans & budget for the current Assembly period to June 2015. So any additional schemes beyond will have to wait for the next Assembly Government to be elected."

This is true. I don't think any improvements could be made to the timetable on the line without additional funding from somewhere. I can't imagine that any additional services would be revenue neutral.

PS.....just discovered there is a bus service from Llangennech to swansea but it takes 1h 15m as opposed to the train's 25mins or so! However it is hourly....

The last time I looked it required a change in Pontardulais, but even then, it was a more attractive option than the train!
 

Rhydgaled

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Ah! I suspected as much!

I am certainly not against additional service son the line, and I am certainly not against the idea of limited stop services. It seems to me that all trains should stop at Pontardulais, Pantyffynon, Tirydail, Llandeilo, Llangadog, Llanwrda, Llandovery, Llanwrtyd, Builth Road, Llandod, Knucklas, Knighton,Craven Arms and Shrewsbury.

Something else I would like to see considered are additional trains on the southern and northern section for local journeys to and from Shrewsbury/Swansea.
Something I have suggested regarding this in another thread is a service from Gwaun-Cae-Gurwen / Ammanford Central to Swansea, which would enable services from HOWL proper to miss stops south of Pantyffynon.

You may be right, I don't know enough about the characteristics of the line, but I know that the Light Railway Order it operates under does limit speeds somewhat.

I think that the LRO also places restirctions on level crossings and signalling.
Oh, a Light Railway Order? If that's slowing things down, can it be easily/cheaply changed to a Heavy Rail Order (or whatever it's called)? I guess not, but why?
 

jones_bangor

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I doubt whether there will be any huge spike in footfall at Colwyn Bay or Bangor because you can get to Cardiff a bit quicker.

The next likely point of any additional services will be when they try to re let the West Coast franchise and then it will a few years off as we saw with the aborted bids the winner was planning on ordering new stock which of course has been postponed.

I wouldn't agree with that, if the train can beat the car - they're fairly equal at the moment - who knows....I suppose it won't be a huge hike though. The new car park at Bangor has made things very convenient - it used to be full by 7.30 in the past, plenty of room now and popular!
 

Greenback

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Something I have suggested regarding this in another thread is a service from Gwaun-Cae-Gurwen / Ammanford Central to Swansea, which would enable services from HOWL proper to miss stops south of Pantyffynon.

Oh, a Light Railway Order? If that's slowing things down, can it be easily/cheaply changed to a Heavy Rail Order (or whatever it's called)? I guess not, but why?

I'm not at all sure how popular a G-C-G service would be. How would the journey tiems stack up against road transport?

I would imagine that a decision could be made to have the Light Railway order revoked. As I recall from reading books on the history of the line many years ago, it was a cost cutting measure that allowed the simplification of signalling and crossings. One of the downsides was that speeds were limited.

I'm not sure how many lines are currently operated under LRO's, or whether any have reversed the order at all.
 

ChiefPlanner

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The LRO (I assume) only covered north of Pantyffynon - south of there the line is controlled under track circuit block arrangements from Port Talbot panel. I think some franchise bids in the past put lifting line speeds and so on into their bids as options - but level crossing modifications don't come cheap and I do seriously doubt if the market is really there. The HoW almost got a centralised traffic control system installed in the early 1960's but this was canned due to other priorities , and in all fairness the LOR ideals and later signalbox rationalisations kept it open in the bad years of no money and not much hope.

Having lived in GCG as a young boy and near Ammanford , I really can't see how a rail service to Swansea via the HoW would stack up - road options via Pontardawe and a decent road towards Swansea would make it very uncompetitive - thought the local bus services seem to be a bit sparse from my days when there were around 4 an hour an express Western Welsh (of blessed memory the 251) from Ammanford to Cardiff which was timed to connect into and out of key trains at Neath. Pardon the nostalgia ...
 

swcovas

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Ah! I suspected as much!

I am certainly not against additional service son the line, and I am certainly not against the idea of limited stop services. It seems to me that all trains should stop at Pontardulais, Pantyffynon, Tirydail, Llandeilo, Llangadog, Llanwrda, Llandovery, Llanwrtyd, Builth Road, Llandod, Knucklas, Knighton,Craven Arms and Shrewsbury.

Something else I would like to see considered are additional trains on the southern and northern section for local journeys to and from Shrewsbury/Swansea.



You may be right, I don't know enough about the characteristics of the line, but I know that the Light Railway Order it operates under does limit speeds somewhat.



I think that the LRO also places restirctions on level crossings and signalling.



This is true. I don't think any improvements could be made to the timetable on the line without additional funding from somewhere. I can't imagine that any additional services would be revenue neutral.



The last time I looked it required a change in Pontardulais, but even then, it was a more attractive option than the train!

As I understand it although the HOWL was granted a Light Railway Order in 1972, Light Railways Orders as such no longer exist, however the line is still subject to the conditions….seems a bit ambiguous? Again, as I understand it, this places a restriction on:

- The number of trains. What that number it is I don’t know but 6 trains a day each way have run at times since 1972 which (IMO) is certainly sufficient in an improved tt.

- A max speed limit. Again I don’t know what it is but there is plenty of 60mph running which again is probably enough BUT could be more beneficial if, for example, along the Tywi Valley the crossing speed restrictions and Glanrhyd bridge speed restrictions were “rectified”. An “express” running restriction free between Llandeilo & Llandovery and between Knighton and Craven arms would be quite impressive in a HOWL perspective!

- Pantyffynon Crossing . Another requirement of the LRO was that a crossing keeper was employed at Pantyffynon level crossing ( at the north end of the station) which doesn’t really impose any constraint on speed as the train stops at the station and signal box to exchange token anyway.

There are presumably other LRO requirements which I can’t recall at the moment.

It’s also worth noting that many speed restrictions HAVE thankfully been lifted on the Multitude of occupation crossings and many of the crew operated crossings which restrict speed such as at Llandybie, Ffairfach exist NOT because of the LRO granted in 1972 but after introduction of NSKT introduced in1986 which abolished the signal boxes / ground frames at many locations such as, again, at Llandybie and Ffairfach among others, locations where trains would pass at reasonable speed unless required to stop. As far as I can think there is only one crossing FB crossing where trains pass at speed……Cilyrychen, between Llandybie and Ffairfach. So it is possible!
My point really is that I think the LRO is now largely irrelevant and that the key to improved speed is modernizing the level crossings and that comes down to CASH!!

As regards the service from GCG and the Amman valley, I agree with Chief Planner I cannot see how this could stack up. It was mooted by Railfuture in relation to construction a “new” link from the SDL to Gorseinon and then on to the S Wales main line at Gowerton. Like the thoughts of a two hourly service on the whole line PLUS hourly at the southern end, a great idea but must be so far in the future that I can’t see its possibility without some major shift in govt policy….or am I just negative???

Chief Planner……love the nostalgia! I can certainly remember travelling on the 301 (I think) from Llandybie to Cardiff (it originated in Carmarthen) in the 60s. A horrendous journey of 3h 20m which included a 20 m layover in Neath and then the possibility of being held up at Aberavon Town level crossing.
 
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headshot119

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Probably you wont notice much as theirs no accompanying increases in service levels planned, the work is part of a scheme to improve journey times of north to south wales trains. It will still be 1 tph between Chester and Wrexham. I doubt whether there will be any huge spike in footfall at Colwyn Bay or Bangor because you can get to Cardiff a bit quicker.

The next likely point of any additional services will be when they try to re let the West Coast franchise and then it will a few years off as we saw with the aborted bids the winner was planning on ordering new stock which of course has been postponed.

There are a lot of rumors of a half hourly service Wrexham - Chester after the redoubling.

As well as an increase to 40 minute frequency on the bidston with through running to Birkenhead north.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Yes it would,the markets there,with Arriva Bus Wales putting on new Premier services between Wrexham and Chester Rail Stn this month to supplement its already 12 minute shuttles.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


Chester is the key, thats where the pax want to go for onward connections.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


To me its always Butetown or Tiger Bay:)

What new bus service ?
 

merlodlliw

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There are a lot of rumors of a half hourly service Wrexham - Chester after the redoubling.

Mike Bagshaw was hinting at three trains an hour each way,when he spoke to us in Wrexham last month.

As well as an increase to 40 minute frequency on the bidston with through running to Birkenhead north.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


What new bus service ?

http://thebuspeople.co.uk/?p=1957 Wrexham to Chester Rail Station is Arriva Bus Wales most frequent & biggest Pax carrying service in North Wales.
The new Sapphire Buses are being built or rebuilt on Wrexham Industrial Estate.
 

headshot119

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Just a new fleet of buses, rather than a new service which is what is read your post as; and only nine buses for the Wrexham - Chester route which means some services won't be to "sapphire" standard.
 

Gareth Marston

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There are a lot of rumors of a half hourly service Wrexham - Chester after the redoubling.

As well as an increase to 40 minute frequency on the bidston with through running to Birkenhead north.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


What new bus service ?


Ok Whose paying for it?
Where does the rolling stock come from?

bearing in mind that there are no plans to use public money to fund anything and remember we've had section of double track and an extra passing loop installed here on the Cambrian for nearly 3 years without anything extra running.
 

merlodlliw

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Just a new fleet of buses, rather than a new service which is what is read your post as; and only nine buses for the Wrexham - Chester route which means some services won't be to "sapphire" standard.

The buses are EXTRA to the 12 minute interval stoppers , OK its still route one start & Finish, but the buses are semi fast as opposed to the 12 minute stoppers.Perhaps marked X, I have not used the service.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Ok Whose paying for it?
Where does the rolling stock come from?

bearing in mind that there are no plans to use public money to fund anything and remember we've had section of double track and an extra passing loop installed here on the Cambrian for nearly 3 years without anything extra running.

Mike Bagshaw told us, the speeding up between Shrewsbury & Chester from 2015 will release stock to generate more services,He did not say how or where from or where to the services would go, he mentioned upping from one an hour to three. He did say the North East Wales requirement would be taken into account when the results of the current North East Wales strategic audit would become available.
 
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headshot119

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Ok Whose paying for it?
Where does the rolling stock come from?

bearing in mind that there are no plans to use public money to fund anything and remember we've had section of double track and an extra passing loop installed here on the Cambrian for nearly 3 years without anything extra running.

As for who's paying that I am not sure.

As for rolling stock, you'd only need one extra unit for the Bidston services, the half hourly Wrexham Chester could well come from diverting other services to run via Wrexham, or as an extension of the Crewe Shuttle.

It's not as though there is no spare stock, there's a 158 which sits at Chester for some five hours in the evening waiting for its back working.
 

merlodlliw

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As for who's paying that I am not sure.

As for rolling stock, you'd only need one extra unit for the Bidston services, the half hourly Wrexham Chester could well come from diverting other services to run via Wrexham, or as an extension of the Crewe Shuttle.

It's not as though there is no spare stock, there's a 158 which sits at Chester for some five hours in the evening waiting for its back working.

Also a 150 idles in Wrexham General bays for over two hours in the evening when it comes off the Bidston and forms the 2047 from Wrexham to Shrewsbury stopper for pax off the VT from Chester/London
 

jones_bangor

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Also a 150 idles in Wrexham General bays for over two hours in the evening when it comes off the Bidston and forms the 2047 from Wrexham to Shrewsbury stopper for pax off the VT from Chester/London

The key issue is peak time working! The stock may sit idle at that time, but is there really any demand at that time of day?
 

ChiefPlanner

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Quite - resource allocation is totally driven by "peak" use - there are plenty of places where there are units with no work for several hours after say 1000 am or after 1900.
 

merlodlliw

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The key issue is peak time working! The stock may sit idle at that time, but is there really any demand at that time of day?

I take your point, but is there any need to leave it & other DMUs with engines running for hours.

This 150 used to run Wrexham to Chester for pax after it came off the Bidston run when it was stabled in Chester, before VT came along.
The morning service for Bidston still runs as a passenger to Wrexham from Chester at 0550
 

Gareth Marston

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The buses are EXTRA to the 12 minute interval stoppers , OK its still route one start & Finish, but the buses are semi fast as opposed to the 12 minute stoppers.Perhaps marked X, I have not used the service.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


Mike Bagshaw told us, the speeding up between Shrewsbury & Chester from 2015 will release stock to generate more services,He did not say how or where from or where to the services would go, he mentioned upping from one an hour to three. He did say the North East Wales requirement would be taken into account when the results of the current North East Wales strategic audit would become available.

Were lead to believe the total package of North to south line speed improvements will shave around 25 minutes off Holyhead to Cardiff. Currently the arrival from Holyhead crosses the departure to Cardiff and then waits for 2 hrs at Canton journey. Are we saying we could squeeze one unit out the diagrams by using the line speed improvements to make a shorter same unit turnaround at Cardiff possible?

There's also the 0830 ish Llanduno to Cardiff extra which is a fresh air carter that could be easily culled with no detrimental effect. But as were talking squeezing existing resources surely the peak hour trains into and out of Manchester/Birmingham and Cardiff served by ATW are better candidates?
 

jones_bangor

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Indeed the Llandudno/Cardiff is a sop to politicians who never use it,those too idle to catch Gerald, and who played hell when the 175 was culled, but never used it,.it was a stop gap via Wrexham. Who wants to get into Cardiff at middle day

Say what you like about IWJ, I think he "got" railways, his successor quite plainly didn't. He fiddled around with Gerald timings, and quite frankly has made a pig's ear of it all. Hopefully Minister no 3 will sort the mess out leftby no2.
 

Gareth Marston

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Say what you like about IWJ, I think he "got" railways, his successor quite plainly didn't. He fiddled around with Gerald timings, and quite frankly has made a pig's ear of it all. Hopefully Minister no 3 will sort the mess out leftby no2.

There's a whole host of " add ons" in S Wales that need addressing especially with electrification on the way they ideally need to be done first.
Aberdare-Hirwuan
Ebbw Vale Parkway-Ebbw Vale Town
Abertillery
Passenger traind into Newport from Ebbw Vale line.
Maesteg half hourly

We still have the Welshpool-Fron double track and the Dyfi Junction loop rusting away in Mid Wales with no sign of any additional services to be run on them. That's not surprisingly top of the list for me, having spent £ millions in restoring the facilities and then not using them is a waste.
 

merlodlliw

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Say what you like about IWJ, I think he "got" railways, his successor quite plainly didn't. He fiddled around with Gerald timings, and quite frankly has made a pig's ear of it all. Hopefully Minister no 3 will sort the mess out leftby no2.

I have to agree with one point you make, Gerald's return at 1821 from Cardiff is too late, however has the train is open access paid for by WG, I suppose the Minister can dictate what time he wants it to run.

However WAG2 also open access(now culled) 175 into Cardiff at 1230 was only put on to get it to call at Wrexham & carried few pax between Shrewsbury & Newport, it still runs from Llandudno as a franchise service one way.
 

tbtc

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Say what you like about IWJ, I think he "got" railways

Well, he "got" railways that were of direct benefit to him, he got a nice First Class carriage to take him down to Cardiff and some decent food for his journey.

Shame the same level of improvements weren't there for other lines of course...
 
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